Sunday, October 18, 2009

Women! We cannot live with(out) them!

2009-10-18_2014Before leaving for long overdue vacation I was very hesitant to ask for help in keeping this place “alive” – firstly because I know all too well how time consuming blogging is and burdening active traders with such an extra curriculum activity did not seem to be quite appropriate AND secondly - as every lazy chauvinistic male pig I was uneasy of having to compete upon my return with unparalleled perfectionism of people who might foolishly agree to take on the task.

It is yet to be determined the deepness of regrets those in charge for the last week started to have immediately after agreeing to upkeep this place in absence of convoluted DeMark-ian, but one thing is for certain – they have done a remarkable job in doing so.  This place in just one week has become everything addicted trader/blogger has dreamed of.  It is not just about the quality and quantity of posts (which by itself takes enormous amount of time), it can be seeing ever more clearly in comments section – charts, opinions, discussions, diversity of opinions and no “fighting”, no unnecessary meaningless obscenities, touch of humor, spray of “social interaction” – just PERFECT.  (even Katzo7 does not need to be banned …just kidding…of course I still have to go over thousands of comments and delete every single one with the slightest hint of disagreement with my rock solid opinion – imagine how guilty Disqus will be for not letting comments with links to go through after I am done with censorship!).  Well, all of the above could have been said in much shorter form:

Paleface 10/16/2009 07:05 AM

Dear K & Co.,

This blog became a "Bridge Over Troubled Water".



Mole’s famous “Share The Love” has taken a different meaning here – I feel like it is 60th all over again :)

Shall Hostess(es) feel the urge to continue posting at their own pace, I hope I would express everyone’s opinion by saying “You are MORE than welcome to do so!” (Cannot avoid recalling George Carlin’s “MORE than welcome – how is THAT possible?”)


Now, quick report of how was my vacation


  • Set stop loss orders on all short positions before I left…DAY orders that is and therefore I am in the very deep fecal right now (some futures positions have been liquidated at the very top of the week by broker) – check.
  • Left valet with credit cards and cash at home – check.
  • Picked up some old fashioned severe common cold on day 2 – check.
  • Burnt my face on day 3 – the good news was that I sleep on the…eh back (which I managed to burn on day 5) – check.
  • Got and emergency call from my ex on day 4 that my “kid” has relapsed – check.
  • Overall I had a “great” time, felt happy, energetic, young, handsome, wealthy … those girls on the ship under 30 who did not agree with my self assessment might go to *beep beep beep* (already played with Disqus censorship settings)


And now for something completely different (not that I am a big fan of Blue Grass or any other grass… except for tobacco leaves)



Baby, now that I've found you - Alison Krauss and Union Station


P.S. Almost forgot – I was supposed to confuse you with DeMark-ian charts!

What I see in those charts? Are we there yet? Are we? Almost?

I think the answer is “almost there, if not already”

What is “there”?

Significant long term resistances, targets for current waves ALMOST fulfilled, rate of change is diminishing – I don’t know IF it is time for selloff yet (if damn EVER!), but market will at least slow down from now on and reality of “quality” of “made up” earnings will start to sink in, and shall (Trading Gods forbid) any “Black Swan” appear on the horizon – bears might just finally get rewarded… if any still live and trembling (not kicking that for sure and the truth is – I would not care less for perma bears – SOME of them are selfish arrogant snobs.  At least SOME perma bulls deserve compassion – they were born “special”, it is not their fault).

The way it looks to me is that it is mostly financials and commodities related (AKA “Kill the Dolla[r]” trade) holding the fort for now and tech which bottomed back in the Fall of 2008 is lagging


The ONE THING to keep in mind now is THE NUMBER…

Uh???  Yup, – SPX numberrrrr

IF rally stalls at 1113 area – we SPX happily completed C of down sequence on daily and move down will be to new lows (584 still holds water).

Shall SPX go above 1120 area (July 9th target for w3 of Up seq) – any pullback might be viewed just like that – pullback and “bear party” will be postponed till next year.  ( I really question that scenario – so far, in general, my “state of the art chart is playing out quite nicely…if not to be too picky with the “numbers” – I wish I was not trading against myself – stubborn Russian!)

















Hmm.. I shut down my charting package already, next time then…

Crude Oil “unfortunately” and quite controversially to a lot of other sectors hints possibility of another 10-15% rally after pullback, which makes $45-46 area on (USO) quite real by the year end.

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