Tuesday, December 25, 2007

My latest trading ideas

Below are MY perspective trades which I plan to trade IF everything going to be to my liking :-) This list might be updated/changes at any time. It is not a trading recommendation

Embedded spreadsheet was causing IE problem, here is a link to Google Spreadsheet instead

What a year it was...

It's been a year to remember...NOT!
Not if you are swing/intermediate term traders.
With all that volatility kicked in right after the first quoter of 2007 a lot of good traders I know sustained heavy losses, both monetary and psychological... unless they were flexible enough and switched to day trading ( or just stayed with the trade for a very long time and rode ups and downs, downs mostly ) or been disciplined and stayed away from the market unless opportunities presented themselves.

But there were few brave souls who were not intimidated and jumped right into middle of carnage and became full time traders.
I'd like to repost article I wrote back in Fall 2006 and dedicate it to my friend Brandt A.K.A. BullTrapper who made his transition in the most volatile time of 2007 and IS MAKING IT.
Read on...

"... time to quit your job? Sunday, November 19, 2006"
Every month the number of "Investment blogs" doubles, a lot of "cubicle prisoners" instead of doing they job, wondering around the floor, bothering co-workers with stories of "how they doubled their accounts in the last 4 months and they are about to quit this stinking job to become full time trade for living guy".

Is having a desire to quit day job with asshole manager good, bad, ingenious or just plain stupid? Tricky question, lets break it down.

Hate your job and manager? Time to move on to another place, but you better be damn certain that it is your manager who is an asshole and not you.

Next, speaking of becoming full time trader as oppose to making few dollars when market is good. This IS a tough decision to make. Think of not having "guaranteed" paycheck, benefits, pension (if you got one), having to pay toward Social un-Security, long term disabilities insurance .. list goes on, and the only source of income would be trading, Geez - takes all fun out of idea, isn't it?

Don't forget that in order to MAKE money you have to HAVE money -do you have $200,000.00USD hard cash ready for that? Think 2001-2002 - that is what you needed to make money in trendless markets.

Not to overlook money for at least 6-9 months to maintain your lifestyle - market sometimes does not pay on the regular basis even to the very best of traders.

I found compromise for myself, even knowing that I can survive in the stock market on the long run, I still work a little over 20 hours a week to retain corporate "goodies". Do I care about place I work for? Way less then before I found out and PROVED to myself that I can make living trading stocks, surprisingly "my place I work for" seems to care more about ME knowing that I'm not a corporate slave anymore and I HAVE A CHOICE.

Why am I saying all of that? Because I want to remind to everyone, including myself,
that HUMILITY and MODESTY are one of the most important qualities for good trader.



Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Official Harvard nonsense

Credit crunch was resulted by absence of fiscal responsibility and ridiculously low lending standards in the rat race for financial profits no matter what and if money can be paid back, right?
If "YES" than why now FED forcing banks to accept virtually any collateral?
How about "worthless collateral"? No special provision for that? Just "any collateral"?

Oh well, that decision was the only missing link to force me to change my PermaBull's "Cautiously optimistic" opinion on foreseen future of American economy to "Excitedly Short on America" and even more, due to ingenious involvement of "World's biggest Financial minds" of biggest European Banks - to "Excitedly Short on America AND World Economy as well".

FED proved total inability to control situation either on monetary policies side or press release front.

If just yesterday I still hoped that FED decided to bit the bullet and let American recession to run its course in attempt to avoid another long term disaster by not pleasing the market and taking a stand in form of 25/25 rates cut( Yes - Credit Crunch in such a strong and creative financial industry as American IS a disaster) - today's morning action, its timing, its phrasing, its ridicule confirmed unpleasant obvious fact - "THEY HAVE NO IDEA" ( Thank you Cramer)

I have no questions for "All the King's man", but I do have this question -
If these people in charge are the best America can produce - I vote AGAINST from now on...and "I don't give a damn about wooden nickel" (Imagine - the only time when they sang it was during the Civil War - very comforting...)

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Silver bullet...(PAAS)

Silver was never "my thing", but SLV ETF was shaping up last few weeks that I just could not help it and did what I normally would not do - opened 10 times regular position in (PAAS) on Friday. Earnings are due on Nov 9th - will sell Wednesday no matter what the price is going to be.

Thursday, November 01, 2007

In light of darkness...

Feel lazy lately, not holding positions overnight - day trading only - better money - more work. So .. tired, and here are some long ideas I'll be building up ( most likely ) over the next few days:

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Good news IS a bad news

Just a quick note to myself - consumer is really taking it. Why? Wall St. cheering about American express earnings been up 11% - for me it says: the going has gotten tough and cash is scarce, therefore people have to put more and more on credit cards - another step on the way to "blowout top" for the market - short sellers of all world rejoice.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007


Just noticed "cheap" stock which has been acting strangely last few weeks, some kind of "suspicious" activity indicating IMHO accumulation. Normally I would not touch stocks under $6-10, but since the feeling on the Street is that a lot of securities have run ahead of themselves, I think traders might be looking for "new blood". Here I go - has build substantial position during last 2 days.
Run (TARR), run!!!

Monday, October 08, 2007

(CTX) bounce coming?

Not much of a bottom fisher I am, but action looks interesting, range expansion lately, and I am not really talking about ATR ( Average True Range ), but rather "most statistically probable daily ranges". I'd be watching it next few days, so far it looks like there is some downside - anxious to see end of week action. As for tomorrow - breakdown below 28.30 would lead to some more downside and move above 29.20 might lead too quick long day trade.
Of course, that ( expectation of bounce ) would directly contradict to such acclimed "Investment Advisory Service/Community" as Motley Fool , but I was "foolish" before and still managed to make some money.
Have a profitable week everybody, just remember - what goes up - must come down ( sooner, rather than later )

Sunday, September 30, 2007

Market thoughts and ideas for upcoming week

Semis - in spite of widely publicized upcoming upside breakout of semis, I don't think semis indexes/ETFs look healthy at all - I might be looking at some short ideas among those.

Israel Stocks - look very attractive on a long side, I'll be putting together long watch list.

Real Estate is in "advance/consolidation phase" - looking forward as how it'll play out, bear sentiment is so extreme that I will not be surprised that right in the midst of carnage we will see major bullish advance - long or short lived - time will tell.
As of now rather than playing with individual stocks I'll be looking at going short SRS UltraShort ETF. (Do NOT confuse it with HomeBuilders - bottom is yet to be seen there )

Russel2000 and MicroCap stocks shaking off selling pressure and deceitfully painting "move up" picture - I doubt it will happen, not just yet.

S&P500 is about to break out of short term consolidation, move higher short term.

Oil...Oil.. what about OIL? I think it is in the very final stage of advance, does not matter that "winter is coming" - I think OIL IS done...

Energy - ready for at least pullback

Financial - don't try to pick the bottom there - disease is still there, shots did not treat it.

Water utilities are about to take a beating?

Some swing trading ideas I'll be looking at:
Long:(SBS), (ACI), (PNCL), (UCTT), (VNUS), (ZOLT), (PRKR), (QLGC), (RADS), (SAI)*, (SCUR), (SHFL), (SPIL), (TASR), (TIE), (TXN), (KMGB), (LPNT), (MENT), (MPEL), (NHWK), (OLN), (OXPS), (FIG), (FOXH), (GLW), (GSIC), (HLF), (HLX)*, (HNSN), (IDSY), (JASO)?, (AKAM), (CLWR), (CNX), (CRDN), (CUTR), (CYCL), (DIGT), (DSTI), (EVVV)

Short: (BRS),(ETW). (ANR) ?, (VRGY), (VLO), (PTIE), (RVBD), (SA), (SGMO) ?, (SOHU), (SWIR), (MFW), (NOC), (NSTK), (NVTL), (HALO), (BPHX) - risky one, shorting a top?, (BWTR), (CELL)?, (ELON)

These ideas are been generated from over 1000 stocks on my watchlists, a lot of time has been spent - your donations are greatly appreciated.

Don't you think that chart is pretty? Pretty LONG?

Friday, September 28, 2007


Range bound day, deceitful, and once again - boring.
Resembles school kids looking at each other " Who will that THAT first?" - and not much happening.
Current positions:
(HLX), (SAI) long
(ARNA) short
Will close if with some luck will be able to stay awake.
Have a great weekend, we still have few good days left - I will use it as selling opportunities

Thursday, September 27, 2007

(CBAK) trade

Quoted from TagBoard located on the left side of the page and serving as the scratch pad area for timely ideas:
25/09/2007 14:02:48
GM all it is Tuesday 8:00AM keep your eye on (CBAK)"

( for some reason timestamp is reflecting Spain's time and multiple requests to "TagBoard Guy" to fix that issue are been left unanswered, so that "14:02AM in reality is 14 - 6 and it is "10:02AM Sep 25th" )

That is was/is the trade we all waiting for, at the time of the TagBoard hint price was $4.40, today, Sep 27th opening we are looking at about $8 open - that is almost double so far. I unloaded 1/2 position yesterday - let see how it'll develop. Chinese stocks are still in play, (CHL) is up another 6%.

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Watchlist for Sep26th '07

Stocks I'll be watching today.
If you are interested in Real Time Trading Chat during market hours,
leave request in "comments" with your Yahoo IM ID.
These are NOT recommendations to buy or sell any particular security.

Monday, September 24, 2007

Trading Notes for Sep 25'07

Below are my daily notes I make daily in preparation for the next trading day.
These are NOT recommendations to buy or sell any particular security.
Notes abbreviations:
ba - buy above
bp - buy on pullback
b - buy
b/s - can go either way
s - short
su - short under

ba SIMO 23.75
ba BOOM 47.75 !
b BWTR !
ba COGT 15.55 !
b JASO as long as not under 43.10
ba KMGB 26.07
ba FIG 21.24!!
ba TASR 16.06
ba NSTK 14.10

s FTEK closer to 25
su MEDX 13.92
s PWAV ?

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Monday, September 10, 2007

Never forget, never forgive

To all my friends who meaninglessly lost their lives in the flames of WTC - you are remembered, you are forever in my heart...

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Transcript of today's real time trading conference

If anyone who does intraday trading ( some call it "day trading", but in reality it is just spotting
intraday quick plays which might , at the same time, be safe to hold overnight)
would be interested in joining Yahoo IM conference hosted by Bull Trapper of TradeGuild Investment Blog and yours truly DavidDT of Trading to Win Blog -
send an email request to alexalexttw @ yahoo com to be added to participants.
here is an example of trades placed today:
DEEP - profit 9%, HNSN 3%+ in 10 minutes, RVBD 3.5%
and ODS short - BT spotted it right at the beginning
at unchanged for the day 0% and in about 30 minutes it plunged to -11%.

Obviously participating in this conference does not constitute investment or trading advise - it is just 'this is what "I" do'

Below is a transcript of today's "trading real time conference" - fresh ( well thought out ideas!) are always welcome

DavidDT (9/6/2007 9:46:28 AM): IDSY close to breakout ( BO from now on :) - volume is still low

DavidDT (9/6/2007 9:54:18 AM): JADE seems to be "in play" long or short – not clear yet, OLN looks like a decent long in strong sector

DavidDT (9/6/2007 9:56:44 AM): what do u think of TWTI above 8? long

DavidDT (9/6/2007 10:02:14 AM): CASY attempts to BO, zacks rated BUY

DavidDT (9/6/2007 10:06:28 AM): DEEP long

DavidDT (9/6/2007 10:19:37 AM): long RVBD 40

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 12:10:17 PM): NEOL may be ready to break out to the tupside again-it's flirting with an intraday pennant right now, possibly ready to bust-a-move!

DavidDT (9/6/2007 12:12:11 PM): did you see DEEP? 10% since 10AM, I am up about 8% on DEEP and 3.5% on RVBD ( going to get stopped out soon I think)

DavidDT (9/6/2007 12:16:39 PM): MEAS from yesterday keeps rocking NEOL is way to speculative for me

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 12:25:20 PM): There were excellent 3Cdivergences (intraday) in DEEP starting 8/22, still looking good except for 1-min (neg divergence)

DavidDT (9/6/2007 12:31:44 PM): I am a dumb guy, I do not predict, I react - I have like 200 stocks and predfined price break levels set for many of those, in case with DEEP - I hoped that when it'll breal upper ascending KBs - it will move and it did exceed all my reasonable expectations. RVBD was a make it or brake it honestly, well, there was a very good volume support at 40 ( on 6 months chart ). Can you use "volume by price" in TC?

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 12:32:10 PM): My 2-min stop channel would take you out of DEEP at $12 and moving up. For your purposes, the stop channel is almost the same (right now) as a 17bar ema on 5-min chart. Neg divergences on 1-min are building.

DavidDT (9/6/2007 12:33:20 PM): SOLF is moving up - looks like today is a VALUE day :)

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 12:34:01 PM): I'm sure you can build vol-by price indy in TC, certainly blocks, but it wouldn't read the same as there doesn't seem to be any horizontal display in either program-(could be wrong about that in blocks).

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 12:34:35 PM): DEEP stop channel @ 12.09 now-you still in?

DavidDT (9/6/2007 12:34:45 PM): i c, that is one of the reasons why I like quotetracker

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 12:35:15 PM): 12.12 now

DavidDT (9/6/2007 12:36:17 PM): I set -3% trailing stop on DEEP, it might continue up tomorrow as well, I don't want to get stopped too soon, both (deep and rvbd) are small size - I can afford to keep overnight, BTW - I bought AOB back yesterday, making few bucks now.

DavidDT (9/6/2007 2:55:13 PM): LGBT is your stock ( your idea) - volume is been rising last few days

DavidDT (9/6/2007 2:59:25 PM): going through the charts - nothing I like what do u thinkl of PTIE?

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:01:44 PM): nstk running

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:03:52 PM): pretty hard selling into that run (NSTK)

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:04:11 PM): HNSN long

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:04:43 PM): take a look at TASR

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:05:56 PM): I would not touch ( personally ) TASR before 16, look at HNSN - it is very close to moving up, volume is low tho

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:09:04 PM): looks interesting

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:09:05 PM): sold AOB ( 10c profit), bought HNSN 25.07

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:09:48 PM): was stopped from DEEP - about 8%+ profit intraday, keeping RVBD ( cost 40)

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:10:57 PM): what do you like about RVBD? looks like it is rolling over

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:11:48 PM): daily ranges - and you are correct - there is not much to like right now (RVBD)

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:11:50 PM): stop channel would have taken you out at 12,21 (DEEP)

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:12:06 PM): watching IDSY to pickup some volume, otherwise I like it

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:28:58 PM): ODP getting it into the close ( short )

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:29:20 PM): gotta love the no up-tick rule

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:39:39 PM): scon may bounce here

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:40:59 PM): weird action on ODP, no ER after close, nothing

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:41:33 PM): hammered!

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:41:36 PM): tempted to close HNSN 3%+ in 10 minutes

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:42:25 PM): that's a tough call

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:46:03 PM): that is what I call "fair disclosure" - ODP - look at that volume

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:58:27 PM): will sell HNSN if goes below 25.35, still going to be 1.5%

DavidDT (9/6/2007 4:44:23 PM): how did u come up with ODP? -11% now - wow

Thursday, August 30, 2007

CNBC and so called professionals.

Quoted: "The reason why stocks produce better returns is because stocks are risky"
My comment: MORONS catering to morons.

My version: "In order to justify elevated risk of investing in stocks one shall expect to produce better returns, otherwise risk is NOT justified and plain financially suicidal and one shall seek alternate investment instruments"

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Slowly getting back to market

My semi-forced extra extended vacation might be coming to an end soon, meanwhile I'll be watching two long ideas (AATI) and (ECIL).
This kind of market volatility makes swing trades nerve wreckening.
But...market IS trying to find a solid bottom and I think it is going to charge UP just like in 1998/1999 - Feds will not let "TOP" and "BOTTOMS" down, and as always "MIDDLE (class)" will pay the bill.

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Some trading ideas I look into

All of the ideas I can force myself to look into on a long side now are for day trades or quick overnight shots:
for today long watch those are: (GAIA), (KNDL), (MEH), (PTMK),(WMGI)
All (most) of the above are low volume stocks, so I will ( IF) put really small positions, just to keep myself in touch with the market, I don't want to stay away right now and don't want to commit too much capital, I think market is not done going down ( not even close to that), but short term I am taking no part in the rat race.

At the same time, I will be gradually building (SKF) (inverse financial ETF ) position on every bounce in financial stocks.

I am watching big insurance companies, in spite common belief that those are well positioned to make money ( by grabbing AAA rated papers for "nothing" ) - I think at the certain point they might roll over as well.

Sunday, August 19, 2007

Sector watch

Gold shows some strength (GLD)

Nasdaq Biotech (IBB) strong ( not counting (AMGN) "surprise")

Russell 2000 devastated last month looks about to rebounce

Clean Energy (PBW) seems to be at the low risk "buy" point

HomeBuilders (XHB) after first pop amplified by some short squeeze (Got that one right on August 3rd post) seems to be trying to stabilize - will be watching it, everyone is so bearish, long term bearish, that it is about time for surprise.

Most of other sectors look like they might go up some, but only to create short setups.
Market will tell.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

$1,000,000.00 question

Fedspeak: "If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said."

Interesting conversation started today at my "day time hangout place" - TradeGuild Blog.
Below are few "cut/paste" from TradeGuild's Tagboard

( what started that conversation? I was looking at S&P chart and somehow it looked awfully familiar, gradually I come to realize that I saw similar chart before, I scrolled back and ... yes, summer of 1998 )

Start of quoted text
there is bad and some good of been old :) here is a link to what seems to be today's events, but it is dated 1998, PLEASE DO READ

Neo - I never watch CNBC :) BTW - it is funny that I just compared s&p to 1998 summer and all in a sudden briefing.com talks about carry trade dollar/yen at the level of 1998

17/08/2007 01:02:26
David - Re: 1998, you may be right but as i understand it the reason the economy etc took off after that was the fed slashed rates, which contributed to the ever growing bubble that popped in 200/2001. The drastic lowering of rates that followed are what led to the current credit bubble, first in home buying, and also in leveraged buyouts. The question i have is, will the fed allow this bubble to grow even bigger by slashing rates again? Also, will emerging markets with surpluses continue to fund our deficit with such low interest rates as we have experienced currently? Otherwise longterm rates have to drastically increase to get enough people to buy T-Bonds

Sinsecato - you are asking really complex question, answer will require bigger surface than this tagboard and better economic knowledge than I have, I will try to put a post together tonight, one thing I do want to say - FEDs primary objective as we know is to fight inflation, but not at expense of collapsing stocks market and getting economy into recession. I agree that FEDs caused housing/credit bubble on the first place ( http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2007/08/market-thoughts.html) ) see my post as of Aug 3rd.. Well, I really need a bigger "notepad"
end of quoted text

As I truly admitted above my economic knowledge is on 101 level, I am not pretending that I know it all, just trying to use "common sense"

Q. will emerging markets with surpluses continue to fund our deficit with such low interest rates as we have experienced currently? Otherwise longterm rates have to drastically increase to get enough people to buy T-Bonds

A. "Emerging markets" ARE full of surprises, FEDs are aware of that better than a lot of average Joes, FEDs do know how corrupt and unregulated economies of emerging markets are and I truly do not believe that FEDs place their bets on that type of "solution" for American monetary system, not long term at least. Plus, I do hope that Japan's example 20 years ago taught them ( government ) a good lesson - you cannot rely with well been of US economy on anyone's else economy, but US.

Above is my "political" uneducated speculation, below is what Chairman Ben have said about China:
"Beijing couldn't damage the U.S. economy by selling bonds or boycotting Treasury auctions because "foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities represent only a small part of total U.S. credit-market debt outstanding."
Bernanke also said that the Fed could adjust interest rates."

So, if not foreign countries, then WHO will be "US bankers"?
With recent market turmoil "paper" (stocks) lost a lot of "buying power", so corporations will have to use cash where they would normally do a "stock deal" - will buying T-bills be their first priority?

Can government keep US economy stable without cutting rates? Even at the risk of sliding into recession? And I believe FEDs became very well aware of such possibility back in 2006 - they ARE economists, they do know that "inverse yield curve is followed by recession in about 12 months"

So far I believe new chairman has done remarkable job of keeping inflation in check ( Inflation as on the "big picture" level, not on Average Joe's level - Joe's level inflation stinks BIG TIME), economy is doing quite all right as well, and since FEDs understand that WAR cannot go on forever, they do care about "other than defense" economy. Are they?

Was "credit bubble" a target of FEDs? I guess - FEDs would not care less...
That was a normal event in free economy - buyers, flippers, mortgage companies, banks took their chances - some made money - the rest will and SHOULD be crashed ( how funny was the entire show - borrow the money knowing that it cannot be repaid, lend the money knowing that there is no way of getting it back. Puffffffff........)

People will suffer? Well, I have a friend who is smart, he was unable to justify paying 300% of the real price of the house he liked, so he RENTED apartment and patiently waited - who is laughing now?

One more thing - and no matter how paranoid it might sound:
No ruling party will end its term with economy in ruins - if they do, they can kiss presidency goodbye - "long time". Especially with wonderful approval rating Bush has even among republicans. ( At least Clinton's "escapades" were entertaining for general public )

Will FEDs sacrifice their integrity for political interests? My friend BT from TradeGuild said: "No way. He even called prior Chairman a person with "sterling" reputation and expressed firm belief that carefully selected follower (Ben Bernanke) will acquire the same kind of reputation and respect Chairman Greenspan had.

Cool with me. I just loosing my mind, I hear voices, I hear someone saying: "US economy is sound and stable, market does not exhibit any signs of weakness" - RIGHT BEFORE THE REALLY BIG CRASH of 1987.

Greenspan -- The Chairman...through the years


Wednesday, August 08, 2007

NSTK trade

Readers of this blog have been fairly disappointed by absence of charts with explanations of technical details of the trades. I totally agree, for educational purposes ( one of the reasons why this blog exists on the first place ) it is a must to have. But here is my dilemma - I have been looking at the charts for so many years that most of the times it is intuitive for me and , if explained - will, most likely, severely disappoint pure technicians.
Still, here is one of my latest trades with explanation of why "decision to exit trade been made" ( why it was placed on the first place? cannot recall now - extra prove of "I like it for some reason" of trading decision :)

Opened long position on July 10th at 11.60. Why? Was not really confirmed breakout, but still move to new higher ground with supporting volume - my expectation was that NSTK is going to out perform the general market.

Decision to close trade: firstly - I do not like to gamble - earnings are gamble, I in most of the cases will be able to buy back stock even if it will pop on ER, if I miss - there going to be many other trades. If ER will be bad - I'll lose - still, after so many years on the market hate to loose.

Anyhow, August 8th after market close - earnings. That is "sell argument #1"
August 9th webcast, hmm.. Friday? well, I will survive if stock will double and I did not get it, what will hurt - if I loose about 30% profit I have in 1 month ( slow and steady does it )

I have to confess - I was so focused on my decision "to close the trade on August 8th" that I closed position even without looking at any sell sygnals.
But how it had to be done correctly?

Consolidation from 10:30 to 12:00 was orderly - not to worry.
At 12:20 new daily high was reached and all in a sudden buying interest just evaporated. ( first oval on pressure bars )
NSTK did not fell off trend channel and continued its climb. Why I always watch trend channel? Simple - I hate to sell with the crowd and when stock falls off - crowd sells and I would not be able to get a good price when hundreds of trailing/stop loss orders been fired at once.

As price was going up from 13:15 till 13:40 CMF ( Chaikin Money flow) was declining,
fast stochastic (main) took a dive at 13:30, and finally "pressure bars" ( bid/ask buying) was worsening really fast and finally at 13:50 at new daily high - there was only selling final call in my books if that would be a day trade.

Now I have to read this mambo-jumbo I wrote... but first I need a drink

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Just a partual snapshot of trading spreadsheet

Chrysler + NARDELLI ???????????

I have no comments
(except for: "It is good to be a king")

Friday, August 03, 2007

Market Thoughts

As you noticed I’ve been mostly staying away from markets for a while now, the name of my game at the moment is “preservation of capital” – I am a perpetual bull, shorting is the last resort for me.
Forced myself into looking at the whole 9 yards of market/credit story - here what I think.
I don't think FEDs will cut rates just yet, what they will do they will change phrasing,
Admit seriousness of credit crunch (they brought rates too much down on the first place and that caused all bad credits not backed up by any meaningful collateral). Market will run first,
then, as my friend Chelobes from TradeGuild noted, will trade sideways for a while with 1999 year end kind of rally.
Meanwhile, the most promising sectors
to play on the long side are:
biotech ( not all of it, but mostly research substance makers such as: AKRX, GLGC, MGRM, MZT, SNUS),
defense contractors ( such as LMIA, LMT, KRSL, RTN last one run up on Cramer comments),
office supplies ( OMX ),
and - laugh all you want - homebuilders ( such as LEN, KBH - will keep my fingers crossed)

And here are few of my current positions: MOH, HNSN, OSUR, PAET and HINT (will, most likely close on Monday), ABBI and RMKR ( opened today),

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Quick long list after overbought correction


I am still in "far away places", turned out I needed really long vacation - just could not hold myself not to find some gems in "scary" market.

And (STXS) (I have position at the time of writing) is slowly getting ready to produce (BWTR) type of short squeeze.

Monday, July 02, 2007

Back Thursday July 5th

After much needed vacation

Saturday, June 30, 2007

As volatile as it gets..?

Rates? Valuations? London? Israel? Commodities? Your neighbor's cat?

How about "Money Managers and Performance Measurement"?
<=== A.K.A. "Trading places" effect ( for movie buffs like myself :) - remember Eddie's rationale as "Why we should NOT buy before Christmas"?

Think about dim witted portfolio manager (I don't want to insult all portfolio managers, but I happened to know some really moronic ones) for mutual fund who will get paid based on quarterly/half year performance of his assets under management. June 29th is the last chance to cut under performers, take some profits on "winners" and chaotic attempts to position portfolio for the next quoter.
It might not make a lot of sense to retail traders who only think "year end tax selling", but it makes hell of a sense for "professionals".

We ( small fishes - retail traders ) will stay in the game, will not let negative emotions caused by meaningless market volatility to affect our best judgments and hopefully next week will bring low volume short lived rally we will be able to capitalize on. Just don't forget to sell on holiday's week - week after Big Guys are going to be back from vacation and will take us ( me and you - small timers) to the cleaners.
Happy 4th of July and ... Good luck.

June results are in!

Below is a snapshot of ALL ideas posted on public site in JUNE 2007 ( these ideas have been taken from lists created for PREMIUM SERVICES subscribers and represent small portion of fee based lists ). All trades are LONG ( market was "bad"??? what a nonsense!)
Returns are as of JUNE 29th market close.


Sunday, June 24, 2007

Answering emails

Just received email with legitimate question: "Why would you waste your time offering fee based so called PREMIUM SERVICES if results of your trading IS profitable and if NOT ( not profitable ) - why would anyone will be willing to pay for nothing?"

Hmm.. that is just the type of question I always had in regards to "buy on our recommendations - get rich fast" services.

Here is my answer
1. I am not "wasting" ANY time - I just reveal my homework in preparation for MY next week's trading for reasonable fee to other traders.
2. I don't HAVE to sell this service, as it is seen on periodically posted snapshots of lists - I do make money on most of my ideas.
Results of recent ideas "PREMIUM SERVICES"
Then "Why sell?" - extra dollars never hurt anybody - honest enough?

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

What makes a successful trader?

"Being a successful trader takes courage: the courage to try, the courage to fail, the courage to succeed, and the courage to keep on going when the going gets tough"
Michael Marcus

Friday, June 15, 2007

TDAmeritrade DOWN - AGAIN!!!

And not the stock I would not care less, but trading site.
Account info and trading is not available for more than an hour now, hold time on the phone unknown - since none has picked up - even for APEX clients.

Very nice surprise, especially for day traders on quadruple witching day - I wonder if Ameritrade will replenish money for resulting day trading calls...

Lawsuit anyone?

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Monday, June 11, 2007

Market thoughts

Positive market action on Friday was not too convincing due to lower volume than on prior down days, I believe that we are not just "Not out of the bushes yet", but that we are just "getting there".
Still, I see more attractive long setups than shorts ( at least short term with vigorous risk control ), therefore here are some long ideas:

(IRBT) - this one is risky, shall be kept on a very short leash

As for sectors - looks like semis are getting out of dog house ( at least some of semis), utilities ( especially - water utilities ) look very bullish to me.

Lenders had nice recovery run, but I don't think it will hold.

and - INDIA - for the longer term in off shore plays forget China, viva INDIA.

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Just for fun

Two long ( I am crazy - may be :) ideas for tomorrow

(WSII) and (IPGP)

The tide has turned

The question, I think, is been answered - equities market entered correction.
Yesterday's selloff was broad based, but volume was lacking, it was not low - just was not impressive, but still - it has got me worried.
Plus, unusually high for one day number of my longer term positions hit trailing sell orders ( in the range in between 5 and 10% - depending on corresponding stock's "true" daily range/volatility.)
Today's selloff added volume, big volume, no panic yet, a lot of methodical selling.
Then I looked at how bond market is acting - and started to sell remaining long positions at a market. By 3PM I was 80% cash and I will liquidate remaining holdings tomorrow morning into the pop.
I am not short yet, mostly due to not seen really nice sustainable short setups, but for next few days/weeks I will mostly be only day trading or just staying away from the market somewhere on exotic island ( or just my own backyard :)

Good luck and ... save your chips for the next big game

Sunday, June 03, 2007

Boring Historical data

As a follow up to the last post about "cutting it" I'd like you to take a look at my old as of December 2006 trading ideas ( which I stopped maintaining as of Jan 12th 2007 ).

See for yourselves - almost every single trade closed at a slight loss on Jan 12th would be still at a loss as of today or lagging in the best case scenario.

Keep in mind that since I just stopped maintaining that "public" spreadsheet - I "closed" ALL ideas on the same day therefore diminishing returns from "good" positions - but than again - you might see what kind of returns those "positive" closed positions would produce as of today.

For those of you who interested in "future ideas" there is always a "Members Only Fee based Site"

City Slicker in New England or "Having fun mowing your lawn"

Ever since I was a kid I had a very bad memory, it is not that I was not able to remember anything (except for the things I did not want to do of course), but I had difficult time memorizing subjects like history. That is when I learned to memorize things "by association" and this is why instead of promised topic of "cutting losses" I'd like to talk about yesterday, that is my yesterday.

Brief biographical data: I was born and raised in a big city ( 2.7 million people ), I always lived in big cities, loved that city living with all my heart. Then so happened that I had to move to rural New England's town with about 30,000 habitants. Nice clean wealthy place - "old money" type of.

So I had to adjust my lifestyle some ...and one of numerous adjustments I had to make was - I had to start mowing the lawn and I tried to avoid it by hiring "professional" who successfully ruined it by cutting top soil with the grass and it took significant efforts and some hefty amount of money to reanimate it.

If you want something done right... and I bought a lawn mower ( I just could not imagine myself riding a big kick .. tractor on my segmented 1.1 acre lawn.

Every single year I make the very same mistake - I keep postponing "first cut" for as long as I can. I keep ignoring fast growing grass, I keep "forgetting" about it, I try to come up with every humanly possible reason for not doing it ... and here comes the time when I cannot see my dog in the grass ( I have lovely Golden Retriever of very impressive stature - some call her "fat" - I call her using politically correct term of "big and tall".

Anyone who tried to cut 2 feet tall grass with a push mower during very rare New England's sunny days ( in between of the rains ) knows what kind of torture that is.

Every 5 yards you have to stop and empty it out, you have to use your hands to clean that mediocre discharge hole,you have to mow the same spot 2 -3 times otherwise place looks like a small Nebraska town after tornado, you have to pull the tarp with the wet grass to the wood ( I got planty of woods, I can tell you that - with all the mosquitoes in the world living right close by ), you run out of gas and forced to take a shower and drive 20 minutes to the closest gas station and then to the next one, 'cause the first one is "closed for flu".

And of course the day when you finally cutting the damn grass happens to be the hottest, most humid day from all the days you could possibly pick for torturing yourself before that day.

Your legs hurt, you are sweating like a 200lbs pig, your eyes are itching and tearing full of pollen, you becoming a raging human flesh the only desire left is to "DO IT TODAY, ALL OF IT - it is going to rain again for the next 10 days!".
You don't see, you don't feel, you do not distinguish anymore between lawn and your wife's flower garden or UPS package laying on the driway, your feet start to slide on the slope under insultingly grinning at you your very own lawn mower ... and here comes the moment of truth - you fall on the grass and cry and ask yourself THE question:
"Why, or why I did not do it before?
I knew I will have to do it.
I knew it will cause more pain as the days go by.
I knew it will cause a lot of pain if left growing.
I knew I will have to do it in the very inconvenient moment.
I knew I would end up killing more grass by pulling it out of the soil, that actually cutting it.
I knew I would have to cancel whatever plans I had for that day - and may be next few ones - my mood is too screwed up.
Why did not I cut it while it was low and enjoyed the peace of mind - and while in a good mood I could come up with some new great ideas ( instead of constantly thinking how to avoid cutting "it")


Why did not I sell that stock with 7-8% loss and let it go down 40% and ruin my portfolio and state of mind?

Oh well, the least you can do now is to take a look here and have some healthy laughter (at yourself)

Saturday, June 02, 2007

Forget recession - it is party time!

Bears are nowhere in sight, everyone is happy , everyone is making some money ( except for those who still loosing their pants trying to fight the tide )
My ironic thought on upcoming correction have not materialized .. yet, I am prepared for turnaround and meanwhile I am riding the Bull with the mob.

Here is a link to my trading ideas entered at the end of April ( and bought at the different time bases on "buy trigger conditions" I believe will produce max gain in the shortest period of time and as of today, June 2nd it is up to you to judge if average return of 7.95% in 16 trading days at the daily rate of +0.69% ( not to forget - that list was entered ONCE and not maintained actively, no stocks were "sold" - kind of public demonstration of "buy and ... forget", indeed - my regularly maintained list produced noticeable sizable results )
my My trading ideas from the end of April

Later this weekend ( when I am back from Warden Blocks presentation } I will post ( REpost, stress again and again ... and again.) my thought on importance of ending the very first day when particular position is open in GREEN.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

"With a little bit of luck..."

What makes a winner? Hard work, homework, persistence, ability to stay in the game after damaging losses, ability to listen to other people and been capable of making own decisions.
Gift? Do we have to be born with a gift of been a good trader?
I think, may be, up to some extent, but most of all - we need to learn ourselves and the market, every single day learn something from the market, about market.

It is difficult market now, a lot of traders ask the same question: "How come everyone is taking profits and I am cutting losses?" Well, I think - a LOT of traders are cutting losses lately, jumping in and out of positions - it is a difficult, unstable market.
At least it was for me - most of April and beginning of May -
my portfolio is only up about 15% from April 1st

We will get there, we will - with a little bit of luck ( I hope you do recall Mr. Dolittle from original "My Fair Lady")

Thursday, May 10, 2007

To do something good on a bad day

It is nice when been skeptical pays off
It is not nice to see panic selling, lost money, broken hopes

Few week ago I wrote "another 200 points on a DOW" - and then ... wake up and smell ... no, roses don't smell like that :)

Anyhow, I thought it might be beneficial to visitors of "Trading to Win blog" who are not the Members of fee based group to see my trading homework in action and therefore, first time since this blog started ( one time only ) I make my trading spreadsheet publicly available.
Here is a link, feel free to save it on your PCs and use is a template for watch lists, I hope you will find it useful.

If you like it and want to have updates - you will have to subscribe.

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

A lot of new ideas

And again - all longs,
and of course - not to be touched until "Uncle Ben" will finish talking tomorrow.
As for entry prices, conditions and strategies - those are posted on Members Group's Site


Thursday, May 03, 2007

April's Results ( That what they call "Vacation"? )

As you know most of April I was either on vacation or have not been trading much due to data problem with Ameritrade Advanced Analyzer.
Still, using about 20% of margin, results are not that bad for one months.


Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Few long ideas

Below stocks might be considered as "buys" only above stated price
LMIA 19.98
NAVR 4.35
VGZ 9.12
IMGN 5.54

For more ideas subscribe to Members Group
How to subscribe

Sunday, April 29, 2007

Membership extended

Due to data problems with my scanning software which resulted in limited number of ideas in April,
memberships to fee based members only group will be extended to May, for no additional payment.
Enjoy and spread the word!

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Good day for a hype

Especially on NASDAQ
after (AAPL) did it again

In light of that event I declare (ZVUE) the trade of the day - it might just do it again.
(ZVUE) is a recent pick of BullTrapper from TradeGuild blog
( I ahve position in that stock - already at the really nice profit, so - don't help me - help yourselves :)


There is a shortage of stocks!

"Common sense is not so common"

You heard it "second" here
First you heard it ( if you watch that ... - I wish I could be polite and say "box of moonlight" or if you waste your time and make Cramer money by staying tuned ).

That IS classic, I've heard it SO many times before, there is no need to be knowledgeable technician or "fundamentalist".

There should be just some common sense left: "Shortage of stocks"

I am a big fan of history, let me rephrase : "there is a shortage of tulip bulbs", this is as classic as it gets - I am really having fun now.

Listen up - take you profits from long positions by the end of today, create huge lists of "shorts", don't you short it yet - hysteria never end easy, but does so suddenly, leaving you no time to react if you are not professional 24/7 trader, look for another 100-200 points on a DOW - and desert "long camp".

Monday, April 23, 2007

The emperor's new clothes

No, it is not about retail or agriculture,
it is about dreams inspired by fairy tales some of us came to love when we were kids,
it is about ability to be able to have own opinion and not to be afraid to express it,
no matter how foolish it seems to others.

Kids don't read much nowadays, too bad...
Inventor of penicillin is not as well known as inventor of James Bond...
( Let say - this is a "trivia question" )

Well, enough of "sugar was sweeter" talk - lets talk money, most of modern people enjoy it way better than fairly tales. ( Unless it is about money :)

Lets talk falling all mighty dollar, lets try to convince ourselves that it is good since foreigners are going to invest more money in America and therefore stimulate American economy.
Lets forget about budget and trade deficit ( especially - trade deficit, which did not look good even while dollar was not that ... what is the word? well, let just say - when it was double of that what it is now. What? It is still not 1/2 of what it was? You just wait and say nothing - it'll happen. )

Lets talk 13K on a Dow, it is nice to talk about "good number". Or may be we'll talk about "ten commandments" - TEN is a good number, right?

Who really gives a wooden nickel about as CNBC calls it "significance" of 13K - what is it going to prove? How about that - we are at the top of the hill - where do we go from here?

You know, I have not been overly pessimistic since February correction, most of the trades I've done since then - are on a long side.

Now it is time to realize that we are still in "P/E bear/flat market", we've been there since 2001 based on historical returns of S&P there is nothing to be excited about - unless someone wants to be excited about flat ( according to long term historical data) earnings.

There is nothing exciting about companies strangling to beat unreasonably lowered estimates.

There is nothing exciting about "consumer is strong" propaganda - tell it to the guy who wanted to flip the house, well tell it to anyone who wants to sell the house...

Tell it to private equity firms who use stagnant stock prices ( yes, stagnant - in spite of some pockets of strength ) to grab anything and everything - why not to buy now - money is cheap!

May is getting closer, I think market has priced in rates cut - well, we do have a NEW Chairman - he does not want to make mistake - let me ask - who makes more mistakes? I think the one who is concerned about making it.

Have you noticed the latest NEW BIG THING?
Green day stocks? Entire sector exploded, traders cheered, bought in and dumped the very next day - so much for a moment of glory.

Tops are not formed in one day, tops might be flat - I think this is where we are now.
"Proceed with extreme caution"


P.S. For those of you who are still reading this post written "while under influence of bad market day" - I thought this article might be of some interest and of partial explanation of "what the hell that guy ( A.K.A. DavidDT ) was talking about )

That Permanently High Plateau by John Mauldin 10/20/2006

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

To "BeEP"-Trade or not to "beEP"...

(in the following post due to my legal department requirements name of corporation has been substituted with distinct sound of "beep" - readers may substitute it to any desired name at their own risk )

I've been avoiding posts with ratings of different brokers due to "touchy" nature of the subject which involves multiple variables, such as:
1. What type of trader/investor "that" broker is best suited for
2. How execution quality compares to others brokers.
3. Fees / Margin rates
4. Services
5. Reliability
6. Disaster recovery preparedness
7. Ability to fix unexpected problems
8. Customer service
9. Technical support
and on and on...

As for myself, I have been a "satisfied customer" of "beep-beep"... hmm.. I am wrong, I have NOT been totally happy since "beep + beep".
Let say I was a "satisfied customer" of "beep"...was I? Well, let say I was NOT unhappy or unsatisfied.
I WAS a "satisfied customer" of "beep" in the good old Island ECN times - execution guarantee (rapid fire that was), clean fast interface, reasonable account services, great knowledgeable customer service with no "hold time" - perfect blend of essential trading tools and services that WAS.

As time went by and "beep" is no more and "beep" is "beep + beep" - a lot of things have changed and just like everywhere when small "mobile" innovative company becoming "huge corporate behemoth" - not all of those changes were for the best. Of course, it is just my opinion and I am notoriously famous for been "the only one to complain"
Have not some of you heard it before: "YOU are the ONLY ONE to complain"?

Anyhow, setting aside a lot of important and not so important changes, I'd like to talk about quality of "not guaranteed" data services provided by "beep" ( Of course, "beep" can not be liable for something they don't provide, right?).
Well, of course, "beeP" mostly just redistribute data services to traders like everyone else, and that is completely fine as long as THERE IS DATA.

As a former "techy" I would expect some reasonable interruptions in data services from time to time with imminent / immediate "Trader's finest" response to any problems with data - no data service is 100%, not 100% of a time, lets go and fix it!

And trading is only as good as the data trading decisions are based on.

Now here is a problem:
I've been using "beep-beep" scanning software for ages, in spite of opinion of some technical reps from "beep" that this is "outdated technology" and needs to be re-written in "hot" C# AND JAVA (at the same time) using .Net framework. ( If you wonder where I got such smart/catchy words from - just go to tech book store and read titles on "programming" bookshelf - that is where Hiring Managers getting "job requirements" from)

That application, for those not familiar with, conveniently combines fundamental data available for customer defined scans with sufficient enough charting and watchlists.
It cost $20 for "general "beep" population" and is a "free" ( perk ) for "top" customers ( those who trade A LOT or have a lot... - well, you figured - it is NOT "free" - everybody pays one way or another)

But wait! Few months ago short interest data mysteriously disappeared from the set of fundamental data and since a lot of scans I ( and ANY skilled technician ) use have it as one of the conditions - scans stopped working correctly. After number of calls and emails which all produced the very same answer by "beep"'s differently ranked officials, which was: "We are having slight temporary problems which are currently under investigation, it will be fixed shortly", finally case cracked open.
Due to my persistence someone admitted that "current data provider is not supplying that data anymore".
Understood, you cannot get what you want from one "guy" - you buy it from another one.
Not that simple - "It COSTS money". WOW - I thought something was free. Of course, I just been sarcastic, it is given that "data costs money" - this is how money is made by data provider and, in turn, indirectly by "beep" because customers are WITH "beep" because, partially, of DATA SERVICES "beep" passes on to them!
No ETA was given on WHEN (IF EVER) that orphan short interest column will have data.

I ate it and removed short interest from all scans hoping that it will be the last of the problems I have to deal with for NO GOOD REASON.

Well, was I wrong... now VOLUME IS MISSING.
YES, you heard me right - VOLUME is missing as well as closing prices for "some of NASDAQ" stocks and NONE heard about it at "beep" until I called and did so about 30 thousand times together with thousands of other "happy" customers, but sounds like every caller was "the only one to complain and they never ever heard about that problem until..." - well you know the rest.
Oh, by the way - according to "beep"'s officials it "just started to happen", well - according to MY observations and inability to use otherwise quite useful application - it has been going on for few months now.

As an "top" customer of "beep" I do not pay for "scanning software" ( at least - directly), but I would love to hear if customers who pays about $20 per month have been offered reimbursement for malfunctioning due to "data problem" software which "was not guaranteed" of course - but it really should work if it is a part of the deal, should it?

In case if you, my readers were wondering why I am not posting as much ideas as before ( and, not to complain, but...why I am not making as much money as before) - this post is an answer.

Now I have to do "disclaimer":
"All written in this article could be my hallucination, it might all be fiction, no companies' names mentioned in this post should ever be associated with real "beep+beeP" or "beep" or "beep" as all names used in this post are fictional and random and accidental match with real names in the real corporate world is unintentional and coincidental. Any attempt by anyone to presume that "BEEP" is "beep" is deemed to be harmful to the author of this post and to "beep" corp. and will be punished by applicable laws made by corporations for their own good. Any attempt by the customers, affected by events described in this article, not to bend over, but complain instead - will be met with utmost corporate bureaucratic football - we are just customers, right?

Oh.. and the only reason why this post is been written is that "Hold time is greater than 7 minutes" most of the time, which works great when you have to place a trade.


I think corporations have to hire more Project Management Office professionals - the single lonely coder cannot do his job properly with only 10 managers - 20 is a good number. Problem solved...bonus divided...coder fired...


Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Support this site - if you like it

This site is totally free ( excluding additional Members Services with precise trading strategies for each stock I trade/watch myself).
But, if any of about 300 daily visitors believe that this site deserves to be known to higher number of readers, please, help me spread the word - I personally don't have time to post on YAHOO, Investor Village or Raging Bull boards - this site is onle as "alive" as number of people who think it is helpful.


(BLTI) sell decision proved to be very timely - I feel better now ( I was not 100% positive that sell WAS correct and TIMELY - now I know )

Good luck today.

Monday, April 09, 2007

I am back ... almost

Dull trading day, as dull as they get - no surprise, I guess a lot of traders are still enjoying long weekend or just don't feel like trading on Passover and Ester.

In spite of stale market, two trades triggered on Thursday continued to move higher (DVR) and (ENZ) and one more fired up today (ICOC).
Exited (BLTI) long - topped?

Below is a static jpeg of spreadsheet provided on a regular basis to Members.


Wednesday, April 04, 2007

"Midas touch" or Tax Season?

Tough choice? Easy choice?
Guess what I would be doing if it was up to me?
At least most of processing for Schedule D is handled by Quicken+TurboTax, but human eye still has a lot "catching up" to do...

Today was a first day I touched the keyboard after "away from market A.K.A. vacation time". Wasted most of last 2 weeks flying around, visiting friends I grew up with.

Did 4 trades today, all long, all at 12 noon - just did it and went out to eat.
Shopped around for new laptop - my old one is saying final goodbye - I respect seniority, but not expressed in clicking hard drive and hazy LCD screen.

So, 4 long positions opened today are:
(CYCL) <= scared to death :) - earnings tomorrow, not my style really

Since I'll be kind of tied up doing taxes next few days ( at least few days )
here some LONG ideas for the time being:
(ESST) - complement of Sinsecato from TradeGuild TagBoard
(ICOC) - above 6.24
(INO) above 3.48
(LCRD) above 13.53
(LIPD) - now - speculative, really
(TSEM) - small position longer term

I hope I will have some money left after taxes for trading :_)))

Oh, one more thing - subscription for Members Services at discount price of $30 per month is closed for April 2007,
better luck for May (at regular $50 per month price ) to those who hesitated.

Thursday, March 29, 2007

My "Vacation" will soon be over

While I am picking up the speed, here are few long ( Am I glad you are laughing now!) ideas:

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Bad market - good TDAmeritrade news

This is the day I've been waiting for...a lot of people have...
Like they say - picture worth a thousand words - take a look

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Watching money grow

Good market, bad market, excuses...
Below is the list of recently "triggered" ideas
Average hold time = 10 days
Gain = 7.72% on total portfolio cash value

ACCL -1.07%
COGO 6.35%
GIVN 1.15%
OTIV -3.51%
TZOO 4.61%
TRX 0.20%
QADI 8.68%
CRWN 7.27%
JAV 18.66%
BLTI 16.69%
SHRP 0.87%
WPTE 31.89%
WEDC 8.63%

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Just wanted to do one more post before I leave

That was a very nice day, closed most of my positions, about 80% cash, probably going to miss market action - oh well, it is never enough.

Just thought that it would be nice to post capture of "current stock lists" members have access to.

"Current Stocks List Ideas"

Monday, March 19, 2007

Hardwork will get you there....

And "yes" - a lot of people know me as a very hardworking guy.
For the last month I have been working as hard as I have not been doing it for quite a while and ... it does not really get me anywhere.
Yes, I avoided few disasters...
Yes, I made some money...
BUT here is a kick - if I have to work THAT hard in order to make money and stay afloat it is a clear sign that it is time to stay away from market for a while.

I am going to Disney World!
Of course not, but I am taking vacation and will be back at the end of Mrch/beginning of April.
Good luck all - don't bet your farm on THIS market.

Thursday, March 15, 2007

"Abandon every hope, ye who enter here"

Now, why would I want to say anything like that on such a nice quiet market day like today?
On a day when "sub-prime lenders problems are not that bad" according to the major publication?
Think, don't hope, THINK... and get some (FIZ)

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

No "Market talk" tonight

Just wanted to keep Members updated on Members Site status.
I have decided, due to multiple reasons, instead of continuing using BlogSpot
to switch all Members Services to Google Groups.

Here is why:
Google groups already in use for distributing Members Site updates to Members. Check

Since BlogSpot does not provide "file upload to blog" capability and Google Spreadsheets (nice app, nothing wrong lately with that) have limited functionality and
my trading ideas require precise "pricing points" and specific strategies to be used to outperform market and due to all of the above Microsoft Excel is a way better suited tool ( I've been sending updated spreadsheet last few weeks) -
I am going to retire Mmbers site and instead use full functionality of Google Groups.

New Stocks Ideas Spreadsheet will be regularly uploaded to Group Site
and notification will be sent out to inform Members update took place.

If so desired by Members, discussion area might be created within the Group itself.

Please, feel free to test drive new Members area (Members ONLY - you shall be able to access it, since Members are already IN THE GROUP) - link is below, comments welcome.
Please, report login/usage problems to my email address.

Members Group Site


Why such a long face?

This is just a quick reminder that BULL did not go anywhere, may be just wised up a little, may be it is a good idea not to send a credit card to 10 years old...the truth is - when someone is asking for trouble it'll come sooner or later.

And ... and like J.C. says: "There is always a bull market somewhere"
Of course Cramer did not sound too bullish tonight...
But I guess today we were the ones who profited on the long side of the market ( at least some MEMBERS, who receive spreadsheet with my trading ideas, did )
(BLTI) and (JAV) marched up from breakout price and closed +5.5% and +7.5% (JAV been up as much as 12% )


Monday, March 12, 2007

Better something than nothing at all

Very uneventful market, feels like it is waiting... waiting for a reason to go down.
Am I been overly pessimistic lately? May be...
May be I am just trying to find a good reason to enter long trades, I am tempted, but there is something in the air, something is whispering into my ear: "Prepare your shorts, be ready". Meanwhile I am picking up nickels and dimes on a long side of the market, enjoying 3 to 10% of quick gains and jumping the ship as soon as I see "-3 to -5%".
There is no place for hope now, I am waking up sweating and screaming "2000!"

OK, enough already :-) Of course there is nothing remotely close to the overvaluation of the stock market as it was back in 2000, it is "just a bear coming into town" - how long will he stay?
Few recent ideas from Members Site added from 7 to 12% last 3 days - I am happy.
Will they continue upside move? Could be - as long as -3% trailing stop will stay intact.
(QID) is beginning to look good again...soon...


Thursday, March 08, 2007

Volatility ... is good

Since my usual trading style (breakout from sound long term pattern) does not work quite well in "this" type of the market and I could not sleep yesterday, I played with different scans till 4AM and I think I found something that might be used for VERY SHORT TERM trades, I'd say day trades mostly.

This new scan produced 3 stocks yesterday, one was flat today and 2 went up
(UCNL) - went up 14% ( Yes, fourteen percent!), started to climb from slightly negative open, never sold off during the day, ended, as I said - up 14%
(LINC) - opened flat, and produced +7% withing 1 hour.

That is, I'd say - darn good!
Both stocks had high volume today, so it was possible to trade large positions.

Did I get lucky? Possible, this is why I would be extra careful with 2 trade candidates for tomorrow found with the same scan, plus - I don't think market is going to be quite as good as today.

Big report in the morning - keep in mind that first market reaction is not always right - you know the drill.

My trade candidates for tomorrow are:
(TWTI) and (LGBT), both long, tomorrow I'll know if new scan works...


Monday, March 05, 2007

Have a good reason to enter the trade

Market up, market down, down - up?
Volatility is good for day traders, but for someone like me who looks for sustained continuous move, up or down, does not matter, what does matter - it should not require my constant attention to the ticker, so for me last week was filled with "close position" actions.
No new positions ( just few quick trades) except for 2 triggered automatically: (IONA) and (SCLN) and were closed withing two days with +8% and +5% profits.
Except for that, once again - it was "close with -4% loss", closed -2%, closed -6%.
Uneventful, boring, but I've learned not to bet your house unless...there is a good reason for it :)
And there was none.
I think market will bounce tomorrow, go up for few days, this is why I closed (QID) position today, I still hesitant to open longer term short positions in individual stock.
Boring post...boring week - unless you are a day trader...

Thursday, March 01, 2007

This is sickening

Things like that make me want to break "the rules", say "to hell with rules"... shall I?

(IMMR) profiled on Members site on the night of February 8th with a buy price of "above 7.64", as of today never went under -8% stop loss rule, but had to be closed due to tonights earnings, so (IMMR) AMC posted blowout earnings, upped guidance and won litigation with SONY Corp. as a result up 27% AMC.

Do I break the rules? Shall I?

We've got a "break"

They say: "We will get a break when the case breaks"

And it is not "broken" yet, market direction is un-clear ( in regards to short term trading). Discipline, risk control, don't jump on the band wagon of "we got correction now we have to buy", the very same people were saying the very same things for years after market started its slide in the past. You are the ones who is in charge of your money. Stay smart and alert, forget China, China was a catalyst, not a reason, reason - reasons ARE STILL WITH US-A.

Take vacation - I might

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Don't you just hate "that"

(ADBL) placed on "BUY" list on the night of February 26th on Members Site with the buy price "above 8.18" today gapped way above that price, most active, one of the biggest gainers - and I DON'T HAVE IT!

Oh well, there going to be another day
Same thing happened way back with (BOW) a while ago - very sad :(

(MSO) profiled on the same date behaved slightly better, up 5% in the morning, gave up some gains by midafternoon, moved higher by close and trading higher aftermarket.


Tuesday, February 27, 2007

That was brutal and there was nothing we could do

though it has been expected...for a while now.
Hope most of you were hedged one way or another, but even then I don't think there was anyone 100% short and it was not a good day to have long positions. Even though most of my long positions were at the green zone and I had stop losses limit orders in place - that did not help quite well - 1/2 of orders did not fire due to down volume - "limit" did not do the job today :)

Tomorrow going to be another day - don't rush into market, don't add to long positions on "dips", don't blame yourselves if market will move up after you did not buy - we will wait for a trend, now - it is most likely will be down, but not straight down, close long positions ( except may be for few most defensive ), add to (QID) on any recovery efforts ( do it in small batches - we still do not have established trend - no matter what "they" say)
Don't be a hero - I hope you were not, NOT TODAY
Good luck

Don't be a hero...

Yes, right, good morning to you too :-)

It will be interesting to see if market is going to be able to overcome China selloff, if that happen - I am adding long positions, if not - I will run for the cover as fast as I can, so far - does not look like there is a good day in store for the market, good luck all, forget "hope", "fear" is the word to think about...

And, PLEASE, don't listen to CNBC if they are going to say something like "buying opportunities" - let THEM buy it!

We are nearing the time when most heroic action will be either staying on a sidelines or if you have taste for shorting - to be short.

I will be watching - I am not catching tops and bottoms.

Good luck all
Remember: "You can not play if you lost all your chips" - keep your "chips"!


Few quick long ideas

(DIL), (CSIQ), (JAV), (RNIN)

I think market will drop on the open and move higher right after - will see


Sunday, February 25, 2007

Google Docs&Spreadsheets Problem

Google Docs&Spreadsheets mysteriously started to malfunction since Google introduced "Google Premier Apps" - paid, as you guessed correctly, it is beyond my control, quotes are not loading correctly or just plain not loading at all.
According to Google team - "they are on it" - for 10 days already

Tales of Emails

No real names have been used in this post to protect privacy of Members

I'd like to go through few email I have received lately and answer publicly
Members' names stated as "X", "Y" and so on, my replies marked as "D"

Email from "X"
"X": "Dear David
Thank you very much for your ideas, they save me a lot of time in doing my home work"
D: too bad you cutting down on your homework

"X" : I was able to make $500 in one week"
"D": - that does not ell me anything, but congrats

"X" - first I bought "stock #1" for $2,000 - made $70,
then I bought "stock #2" for $5,000 - made $130, then I bought "stock #3" for $3,000 - broke even" and so on...
"D" - congrats on not going broke faster than you will - and you WILL go broke, don't blame me, I regret to inform that your membership will NOT be renewed

Email from "Y"
"Y" - I've been watching your picks and when I became comfortable I bought "stock #1", but it has not been performing at all, so I am still holding that stock #1 and waiting with next purchase...
"D" - I regret to inform that your membership will NOT be renewed

Email from "W"
Dear David, I've been using you ideas for few months now, many of them works quite nicely, one thing I disagree is that you recommend to "keep at least 2/3 of profit" therefore you cutting opportunities to make more money on a stock. As an example look at "stock #5"
"D" - dear "W", sorry it took a while to answer you, I've been swamped by emails and membership requests lately, my apologies it took 4 days to answer. I hope you don't need my answer anymore, because "stock #5" after running up +17% in 3 days and correcting to the +12% after that ( it had to be sold to keep +12% profit), after second leg up to total profit of +15% collapsed and sitting at the loss of -24% to initial "trigger price", so instead of making +12% you lost -24%. ( I hope you sold it at -8% according to the "RULES")
I regret to inform that your membership will NOT be renewed.

This list might go on and on,
let me try to answer most of "reinventing the wheel emails at once:
My "system" ( it is NOT MY system, it is common sense and methods used by many successful trader over extended period of time) calls for "DISCIPLINE", it is a "percentage game", it is "minimize losses" - "maximize gains", it is risk control, it is "DO NOT BE A HERO" approach, it is NOT "get rich overnight" approach.
Let me stress cornerstone rules for the way I trade ( which a lot of "me too traders" pressed for time never bothered to read in the different "educational posts" I spend my time on for "my own pleasure"

1. No "dollar" talk, "%" ONLY
2. Equal positions sizes
3. Multiple simultaneous positions
4. Risk control - never risk more than 2% of TPV (total portfolio value) on one trade,
never ever risk more than 7-8% single position
5. Never let "profit trade" to become "losing trade"
6. Sell laggards
7. do you own homework!
and on and on and on...
8. NEVER use more than 20% of margin - preferably 0%

Here is what I am starting to do beginning today in respect to "accepting new members"
When requesting membership - send me email "quiz" type listing of my rules - I need to know if you will not get hurt using my ideas. ( Even tho "legal disclaimer" states that anything I post is a complete BS for "entertainment purposes" - I still don't like to see people lose money)

It is too bad that most of "I want to get rich fast" new traders started to trade ( not even speaking of 1987 crash) after 2000 prolonged severe bear market.

These "traders" WILL loose more money than they made - don't blame anyone other than yourselves.


Thursday, February 22, 2007

I feel lazy tonight

That is why instead of regular routine of going through hundreds of charts generated by scans I've designed, I took a "memory trip" - went over some of the ideas I had few months ago. For better or worth, judge for yourselves...

(ACTI) - dropped today - I don't read news ( at least today ) - was it due to moronic downgrade of (ID) by Matrix research?
Anyhow - (ACTI) - I will grab as many shares tomorrow as I will be able to - I have a weird feeling that something big is about to happen.

(AXTI) - I think it is a buy at 5.10

(TTIL) - as soon as it will touch 2.58 - I will buy

(UCTT) - when (IF) it'll go to 14.58 - I am a buyer

Now for short ideas:

(LNOP) is a short under 11.93 ( NOT BEFORE!)

That will be it for freebies - freeloaders rejoice - for real stuff there always is a Members Site


Nice surprise...

(UWN) placed on buy list on Members Site on February 15th at a "buy price" of 2.50 ( noted - "risky") all in a sudden moved up on news, closed at 3.26 producing nice 5 trading days profit of over 30% - and they say "charts are for fools and fool and his money will soon part" - I have a question - HOW FOOL GOT HIS MONEY ON THE FIRST PLACE?

Also, (CYD) from February 20th proved to be more than "tradeable"!
as well, as (DMX) ( risky or not - money been made!)


Wednesday, February 21, 2007

"Tradeable day"

This is delayed information describing real opportunities listed on Members Site


"It is so nice when things work the way they should.
(TASR) after ER should have made money to brave souls
( In spite to opening slightly higher than trigger price, I entered and trailed with -2% - made about 6%)
(CYD) - as noticed was "tradeable"
(TINY) broke out nicely
(ASTSF) as always - very illusive - trailed -2%, made some money - broke out RIGHT at the trigger price, spiking very nicely.

The might be an update to "current" list, pay attention to updated cells (bright blue), if not:
(ABMD) makes me sick - off it goes!
(SHRP) - had a shakeoff, if it will not behave tomorrow - should be gone.
(WPTE) ( triggered on 2/15) finally made its move +5.62% today ( over 8% in 3 days)
Also, I closed (DCTH), (IDIX), (IOTN) longs today, not because they don't look good - because I like money in the pocket, might re-enter later on.

Hope everyone is making money"


Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Public Stocks Picks Performance

(Begin 12-JAN-2007 NOTE)
AS OF 12-JAN-2007 I stopped maintaining this spreadsheet as it turned to be EXTREMELY TIME CONSUMING, point has been illustrated - market has been substantially outperformed.

In less than 3 weeks "Publicly available watch lists" generated over 34% GAIN.

I added 3 more REAL trades I placed in my REAL PORTFOLIO (those trades are been based on publicly available stock lists of last week and are been placed using "TRADE TRIGGERS" at predefined "breakout prices" ( (BHIP), (EVOL), (JADE) )
(End 12-JAN-2007 NOTE)

This is as of 12-JAN-2007 performance of stocks picks PUBLICLY profiled on Trading To Win site.
Stocks profiled on Trading to Win site will be added to the spreadsheet NEXT day at "10:30AM" price.
To see my personal holdings/trades READ My stocks lists A.K.A. Members Site
and VISIT Members Site

Sunday, February 18, 2007

Anticipate vs. react ( A.K.A. - where market is going?)

There going to be no answer in this post, not because I have no feeling as to "where and when" market is going, but because it is just that - "feeling".

Better minds are trying to figure out short term direction of the market, I cannot compete with them.
With my luck I am not going to be 1 out of 10,000 who will be able to post on their blog/site long after market will change direction: "We predicted exact date of market collapse!"
And 9,999 others will be quietly holding their horses.
Sounds like unprofitable gamble, is it not?

To anticipate the market is to gamble, to watch and react is to trade.
I trade, I don't expect to triple my portfolio if I'll be able to spot "THE DAY" and jump in with huge margin. I also will NOT lose most of my money if market will prove me wrong

Some might call the way I trade silly, I might open and close position in the same stock multiple times with small losses or gains, I wait for the stock to prove that it is NOW that it WILL move strongly and I WILL make more money in shorter time with better risk/ reward ratio. No matter if I swing trade or day trade, I always wait for "pivot point", I am not trying to buy cheaper ( if I go long) - I want to buy "right where the most money is". Most people call it "breakout/breakdown", I don't mind, but for some reason ( may be because I am as unbalanced in many aspects of my life as great Jessy Livermore was, NO - I cannot compete indeed) I like to call the price I want to see on the tape before I buy just a "pivot point". It implies that there is no guarantee that after breaching that price stock WILL and SHOULD go where I need it to, it just says: " Stock MIGHT move". Will it? I will watch and react.

On my "Members Site" I have "Current ideas" list and "OFF/Archived ideas" list.
Once stock goes off the "current" list it does not automatically implies that it will never make it back to the "current" list, all it is that "THIS IDEA" is currently less appealing than ideas on the "current" list. I am not always able to keep up with all past ideas, but it is highly recommended for MEMBERS to go over "OFFed" ideas and ask me if "that old idea" might look good as of today.

Two recent examples of "OFFed" ideas
(IDIX) was "OFFed" due to market volatility, but since it behaved nicely, I kept watching and finally it moved through the "pivot point" on 2/12/07 where I opened position and produced about 15% in 3 days.
(DCTH) "OFFed" due to the same reason - I kept watching ( I always, well mostly have my email alert set for every single "current" AND "offed" stock - on 2/15/07 made through the Pivot price" of 4.03 - profit of 8% in 2 days.
(LMRA) was placed on the "Current" list as of night of February 14th - nice move right next day ( It amuses me greatly to read all the blogs how everyone spotted LMRA move BEFORE, but posted it after due to been very busy making tons of money, oh well :)

List might go on and on.
I went of the topic, my apologies, what I am saying time and again - watch the market, watch your positions, react swiftly, ask questions later.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Interesting move on LMRA

Definitely did not expect it to happen right next day after I posted it on Members Site - therefore only had a chance to open 1/2 regular position in (LMRA) ( way overextended on margin now)
For new ideas visit Members Site

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

New lists

list #1


list #2

Almost forgot, long is list #... and long is the list #...

Since I pressed on time and it does not make much sense to type same things twice, why don't you just visit Members Site and read it there...good night now


Quick update

(IDIX) added to the current list on the night of Feb 11th keeps moving.
I'm having fun reading YAHOO's message boards - main question there is "WHY?"
It is not relevant, what is - it is up about 12% from trigger price ( and real time email provided as of this point just as a courtesy to members )

(CPSL) added just yesterday ( in this case there was neither "luck" nor "been good") collapsed at about 2PM today, "WHY?" - it does not matter now - it is at a loss of 4% ( according to "4% any time during the day" stop loss rule)

For more ideas visit Members Site of trading to Win Blog


Friday, February 09, 2007

Is "IT" happening?

Sinsecato from TagBoard found interesting post:
"I found it on CSCO's summary page on Yahoo, entitled "Bears Bare Dull Teeth."
In a way it is similar to the picture in Wall Street Journal with title "The Bear is dead"

Stocks go down on good news
It is cold ( What it is got to do with market? I don't know - it is cold!)

Market has been in a very tight trading range - has to be resolved - and for some reason I have a feeling that today's action is a very beginning of this "resolution" and the road is DOWN.

As I type all my current long positions are getting closed - if I am wrong - I can always re-enter or just find other opportunities.

Still hesitant to open short positions - I am no good in catching tops or bottoms.

Cash IS a KING now