Thursday, September 28, 2006

Possible short squeeze alert

NASDAQ short interest numbers just came out and
now has about "26 days to cover" - if this puppy moves up - it'll be "fast and furious"

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Windows dressing is almost over

and with it short covering which is helping to propel markets to new highs will be gone too. All or most of latest short ideas are still short - just at the better entry prices.
Here what I think might be most promising trades:

TEX - right where it is - if higher - even better
SHLD - same
RATE - somewhere at 27-28 depending on how it'll go ( don't worry about high short interest - none is going to cover anytime soon :) )

COLY 11.20 - 11.40 stop 11.08
ILSE 19.30 - 19.60 stop 19.05
SFUN 28.55 - 29.10 stop 28.09

Commenting on PCTI action today - at the time when it was shaken down SemiHolders sold off quite hard, still long at 10.30-10.50 with stop at 10.11

"I make rules - I brake rules" - here what I traded/trade ( As I explained before - I dislike to open my cards in order not to affect anyones decisions )

SLXA profiled on Sep 20th, pick of BullTrapper of Trade Guild investment blog, put up quite a performance lately, bounced off $8 area - nice going BullTrapper!
I picked it up on Sep 22nd at 7.90 ( as I say in my trading rules - I don't chase stocks - "Money not made better then money lost") and closed today at 8.66 missing extra .30 pop - did so due to anticipation of coming market selloff, I'm about 70% short now

RIO short, pick of BullTrapper of Trade Guild investment blog opened short position at 21.06, with soft stop right above 22

APOG - closed position on pop at 15.94, might re-enter long pos. at 15.35 +/-

VRTX - covered, institutional defence is not done pumping this one

GRMN - quite a pop, good short opp., if tomorrow morning goes up - 48.50-49 would a perfect entry for short position, with stop at about 50.28

SUF looks like it is recovering - this is high risk/high reward long trade.

NXG - went up with minning stocks, I think GLD will continue go up for few days at least.

others candidates of interest:
short: CCU RS TIE SNX ZOLT and last, but not least - FMCN looks like this time it IS breaking down

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Morning update - long alert - PCTI

long alert - PCTI - going to higher grounds

Monday, September 25, 2006

Got it all wrong for the market

got it quite OK for picks. Tired, stubborn in believing that "controlled inflation at the cost of recession" should not move Mr. Market higher - so, let say quarterly window dressing started earlier, let me see - will it end on Wednesday instead of Friday? Could be - stay alert, keep your long profits.

Lists ( I try to list tickers in "expectaion" order )



Sunday, September 24, 2006

More of the same? ( Mon&Tue)

That was an interesting attempt to put some kind of reversal on Friday, it failed, but some stocks stamped hammer-like formations, honestly I don't think of any positive significance to take it seriously at least for Monday/Tuesday. So whichever short positions are working - I'd stay the course, if you were lucky to have long positions working for you - I'd put those on "future long list" even if they will sell off tomorrow.
Some ideas for next week:
Long: COLY BUF OO JRT GAP KNOL ( Trade Gild's past favorite - something is cooking with it, I think on a long side, but that stock diluted me in the past, so - be careful)


Someone asked me about when to buy/sell short, right away after I post it or wait for a reasonable entry point.
Here is my understanding of my own ways of saying "long" or "short" - these are picks which I think should have some potential to go in direction indicated, in most cases - not right away - I try to stay away from "all aboard" kind of stocks - I don't have time/desire to watch monitor 24/7. When I think "long" I'd look for reasonable entry price ( not a nuclear fall of price ) - some discount, I don't chase the stock - been there - lost SOME.. :).

If I think the stock I'm watching provides good entry point due to some event (news, up/down grade I'd try to post intraday alert, if it does not change my perception on direction of that stock.

I'm intentionally not telling you what stocks I'm trading (My decisions shall not affect yours), but they are among the ones I post on the blog.
You are welcome to ask my opinion on position you opened based on ideas presented on this blog, if you do - I'll follow up upon analyzing current situation with the stock of your interest, otherwise - I will NOT post "XYZ is no longer a short" or "ABC is no longer a long" - you have to ask, I don't keep track of stocks I don't have position in.

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Morning update - some ideas

short: CTSH ( puts) LEA

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Lucky those who opened and closed...

As vague as it sounds...
Today WAS a good day to cash in on your long positions ( many of long positions least to say)
initiate short positions.
And why am I saying that? Look at DIA trust, so little conviction on the upside last few days, it looks like a person who is walking marathon race and he is second in that race and all the glory will go to the first one at the finish line, but the second best still needs/wants to finish... all of the indexes looks very exhorted, volume today was so very unconvincing on the upside that it makes me think that retail investors are going to pay the full price for this move.
Houston, we are going down...tomorrow...
There would still be a bright spots for longs All American Investors/Traders who do not short ( I don't mind - I'll take it). One of such bright spots tomorrow will be SLXA, pick of BullTrapper of Trade Guild investment blog which he found, nurtured for a while and now ( as lame as it seems) I say - SLXA - it IS time to go up!

Sectors... biotech , broadband might continue to go up ( as my Granny would say: "On another hand they might go down")
And pharma ... seems to be loosing steam. But still a runner. So is healthcare.
And it looks like our old looser friend - NANOTECH - is coming BACK! ( don't get too excited)
Commodities... oh my... my timing is always bad on this material - I think it willy-willy oversold and due to a bounce, if it will not go up tillthe end of this week - we will see a LOT of downside.
Gold ( of course it IS commodity) - is sitting on support and might bounce, especially if market will start correction tomorrow.
Oil - capitulated today? Reverse to the upside is in the store?
Oil holders - don't go there unless you are already heavily shorted most of 'em

I might post some lists later tonight, but more like not, all bets I believe had to be set by today.

Short VRTX Alert

Due to UBS upping VRTX - we have great entry for shorting it

Monday, September 18, 2006

Respect risk - "when in doubts - get out"

Not much to say, oil and gold edged up as expected.
If you are long on the margin - monitor positions closely.

Few quickies
Shorts: Today WAS a good day to go short, well - look at VIP tomorrow

Looks like home builders has buttomed ( TOL KBH LEN )

Sunday, September 17, 2006

Will we see selloff this week?

According to Stock Traders Almanac week after Triple Witching is miserable, well, so far this year nothing works according to history, will live will see



Thursday, September 14, 2006

Game plan for tomorrow...

Since one might expect heavy volatile trading due to triple witching ( will we be saying - quadruple soon? ) here is what I would do:

At 11AM whatever optionable short candidates I have lined up if I'd see those going up on heavier then normal volume - I'd short them at this point, the nice thing about doing that is that by 12 noon I'd know if I made a mistake :)

New ideas:
long: SYGR BUF

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Tipple witching - feels like it...

Decided to take a break from the market this week and to set aside some cash for good short setups, but could not stay away from the charts, so here some ideas for you - market warriors!

short: NSR (if it'll go back up to 29 and goes down after that )
FMCN ( could be a quick ride in the down market to 51 and if it breaks res. - much further down )

Long: ASIA AVCI BKI ISIG ( 2 risky ones IMGN and AVGN - use very tight stops, with these I'd rather reopen position multiple times if I like it then get caught holding the bag - it'll be heavy -commit small amounts if any )

Saturday, September 09, 2006

Small biopharma shakes off generic drug fears

We are not talking PFE ( thou it recovered nicely )
Quick money are been made in VPHM profiled as long on Aug 22nd
From August 23rd to Aug 29 it ringed in 24% profit in 6 days

Grazy to be short energy?...

I recall that is how "they" called Edison..
Meanwhile, take a look at BTU chart (which was profiled as a short on August 21st along with some metal stocks)
If you opened short position on August 22nd, by now it translates into hefty 22% profit in a little over 2 weeks

Thursday, September 07, 2006

"Addicted to love"

Do you know that most famous traders had miserable personal live?
Is that because instead of been "addicted to love" they've been "addicted to market"?

Take today's list with a grain of salt, I did not have nearly enough time to validate my ideas


Long: AVCI, PRFT, IFOX, LTBG, UCTT, PCTI, PBH, TOPP (?), ALTH (?), QDEL (?), AVGN ( IF it pulls back some )

Use position sizing, risk control - we are in the murky waters now - don't be like

For the latest market view visit Trade Guild blog

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

"They" call it "profit taking"?..

How about "selling before September gone too far with FEDs meeting coming up and warning season upon us aided by "worse then expected" earnings.. What was that?.. Looks like "party during the plague" is coming to an end? But don't worry - on a long run stocks always go up, except for those which never ever do after they fall. Enough mumbling - are here new lists - and PLEASE - scrap prior ones ( unless you still at the profit ).

for short positions - look for the open, short into the strenth,
for long - take you time - you'll get your chance till the end of this week.

Long: NHWK, FXEN ( Polish cos. - long shot ), BUF, ATHR (?),LMNX ( my favorite -18.67?), AXTI, AMRN, DPM (right - gaz, oil is out of favor ), GIGM ( for risk takers), ILE, IRBT, MTEX, OLED (?), ZZ, MED (8.96 for quick pop), NMTI ( on pullback)

Short: GPRO, GEL, HWAY, OPLK, RGA, CHAP, CRS, CX, FLR, HAL, GSF, ISIL, MSTR and CTSH ( puts may be the way to go ), RIMM (?), TFSM (?)


Not the best month...

That is why you see short candidates first

short: IDA, NST, NTST, GEL, VOL ( Great pick by BullTrapper of Trade Guild blog profiled on 3rd week of August) , ODFL

long: AIQ, NHWK, SUF, NXG (don't rush in - look for a good entry), NAK, PLLL

Saturday, September 02, 2006

Tested and true rules of successful trader.

  • Trade for PROFIT, not for material desire

  • Learn to lose

  • Don't trade on tips!

  • If you "cold" - ease up or take a break - Do not "revenge" trade

  • Never turn a trade into investment. ( If trade did not work the way you expected :) )
    Sell if the reason why you opened position is no longer there - keep a journal - when you found candidate, what was the reason for a trade, follow your trade constantly ( According to your trading style ) There is no such thing as "Set it and Forget it"!

  • There are no "PAPER losses" - all paper losses are REAL.

  • There are no "PAPER gains" - all paper gains are NOT REAL

  • Cut losses from trade price at 6-8% - NO exceptions.

  • When in doubt, get out!

  • Do not risk more then %2 of total portfolio value on a single trade.

  • Don't put good money after bad - never average down, only up!

  • Have a good reason to enter the trade - do not trade just because you can.

  • Don't try to catch a "Falling Knife" (don't buy a stock only because it looks cheap )

  • Don't SHORT the stock only because it looks too "expensive" to you.

  • Do not trade more then 7-10 positions (long and short together )

  • Do not fight the tape - most stocks move in the direction of the market. (Would you fight a car driving a bike? - Did not think so...)

  • Sell laggards - it is not enough not to lose money - objective is to MAKE money. ( I sell if within a week price action does not confirm my expectations, if nothing else changed )

  • Let your winners run ( and never give up more the 1/3 of your profits )

  • If profit on the stock more then %8-10, place protective stop to keep at least 2/3 !!!

  • Do homework, find the very BEST candidates and trade SECOND best - what is obvious to you is been obvious to a lot of other people before you.

  • If stock is making new 52wh - and no added volume - don't put your money in it or even start thinking about shorting it

  • Do not chase the stock!