Thursday, December 30, 2010

Auld Lang Syne

We will open the book. Its pages are blank.

We are going to put words on them ourselves.

The book is called Opportunity and its first chapter is New Year's Day. -Edith Lovejoy

Is Sugar going to be our leading indicator instead of copper? My trading mentor loved the chart on sugar as a tip-off- it’s old school, but maybe old school will work.

It took quite a swan dive today, and I think this chart speaks for itself.


Happy New Year TTWrs – Cheers & the very best to all of us in this new year ahead…

…We drank a toast to innocence, we drank a toast to time
We're living in our eloquence, another old lang syne

Friday, December 24, 2010

Merry Christmas and Happy New 2011 year!








“And what happened then? Well, in Whoville they say that the Grinch’s small heart grew three sizes that day. And then – the true meaning of Christmas came through, and the Grinch found the strength of *ten* Grinches, plus two!”

How The Grinch Stole Christmas






Merry Christmas to all our friends and enemies – and remember DavidDT's motto



"Family First"


Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Not much to say

…except that I gave up on my bleeding long puts position, everything indicates that last few days' action most likely brief consolidation with following breakout above multiple TDResistance Levels – below are the charts2010-12-21_1915



If SPY will move closer to 128… well, I am tired of forecasting as much as I am tired of this lame action…there is going to be a different story in 2011.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Weekly Sector Report | 12/17/10 (by Leisa)

The total stock market index ($DWCF on advanced .33%.  Beneath the surface there was much activity in the sectors.  Here's the weekly graph (click all images to make larger):
Financial services had a lousy weekly largely due to V and MA getting their legs cut out from under them with the proposed regulations on capping debit card fees.  To get a view of the magnitude of the market's response on these two charts click here. The WSJ Industry page as a great snapshot of the best/worst performing industries.  Here's the snapshot for this week:
You can choose from multiple time frames to see this type of performance.  These types of relative looks will help build a mental map for you to gauge market action. Click here to see how this easy visual tool works.

I had a reader ask me a question about being able to find low-risk entry points using these sector reports.  There are a number of FREE on-line tools to aid the individual investor who wants to do his/her own research. Ultimately we want to be in the industries that are attracting money relative to other industries, and be in the strongest performing stocks (attracting money relative to its sector siblings).  By clicking on any of the industry links, you can also see a snapshot of the strongest performing stocks in that sector.  (You can also do this easily in FINVIZ by clicking here. ) As steel was a great performing industry this past week, I wanted to share a couple of charts, the weekly and the daily, with you.

WEEKLY Steel Chart
Daily Steel Chart
On both the weekly and the daily chart, steel has been breaking out and then pulling back to consolidate in a strong confluence of moving averages.   Interested in seeing who's on the homecoming court at the steel sector dance?  You can do so by clicking here.  There are a number of ways to find strong stocks, this just happens to be my way which appeals to my DNA and contributes to my understanding of the overall market. Time to pull back out for the bigger pictureLet's take a look at the total market index:
We are fast approaching a volume bar (see dotted line) that should we surpass it, the gravity of volume overhang will dissipate.  What is interesting to me is that we often come to these important technical junctures that are coincidental with important news junctures--the next big news cycle being 4th quarter earnings and of course the report from the retail sales.

I have a good friend that reminds me, "There are no coincidences." I have prepared for you a chart book with the weekly and daily sector charts.  You can find it here.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Golden a… ah???


Back in the summer of 2009 I posted this chart with grey rectangle and speculated that if/when it will be broken through to the upside – we will see bull run in precious metals. That happened and now, I think, is the time to tighten stop losses and may be start taking partial gains – I, for one, started to sell some of the Eagles – Silver ones, for example, appreciated 50% in just few months, and gold Eagles performed not much worse.  Why I think "it is time"?

Look at below chart – from the bottom in 2009 to that grey area and from grey area to recent top – we have 100% move.  Plus, acceleration band (blue line) finally contained price and IF mid band will break this time – this might just be another good trade I've been waiting for since going short oil. (Still stubbornly holding long term SPY puts – will have to make  decision closer to New Year)




Monthly chart worth mentioning as well – picture (counts) speak louder than words.




Tuesday, December 14, 2010

As exciting as watching flies … mate

Not counting selling into the close which produced almost reverse hammer looking daily candle on SPX – there is as much excitement and opportunities to make money in this market as… you fill the blanks.  Unless you sucking on bleeding theta (the one the coming out of my 5 months out long puts I still hold) – I doubt that you make and, most importantly KEEP money last few weeks.


Here is 4 hours chart – price action within TDST and TDRL…boring…


Daily … wait up… this looks more interesting – with tiny TDST/TDRL range (yellow) we might want to be prepared for sudden move.



Weekly…hmm – wave 4 is right at 76% retrace (blue arrow ) and there is negative RSI divergence (yellow rectangles)


Same chart (weekly) – zoomed 1220-1280 range is a no man's land…I am patiently waiting for resolve…one way or another


Saturday, December 11, 2010

Worden StockFinder unadvertised sale is on now


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    Wednesday, December 08, 2010

    "Miracles of technology"

    2010-12-08_1917 Just wasted good hour of my time trying to make either Bluetooth or USB headset to work with Jing (wanted to make quick vid), but obviously I am not only geographically, but also gadget challenged, and, silly me – I cannot locate wired microphone, so here I am typing with one finger and it aint index one…


    Over the weekend I posted few charts on Disqus – they are right below


    12/06/2010 09:27 PM

    nat coming to an end for now
    silv er (based on gold chart) might be slowing down

    Looks like so far it is playing out quite nicely.


    Below is my favorite 4 hours interval chart of SPX – IF we are in wave 4 which is really difficult to trade, we might see SPX 1150sh before we resume move up.  Slight move down off TD Setup Sell 9 (started during countdown  Sell ) – I'll be watching 1180area for the first clues.


    Speaking of wave 4 – if that is what it is – this is where I am getting my 1150sh target – wave 4 after deep wave 2 (76%) is normally shallow, around 38%-.




    and today's "bonus feature"!


    Hobbes' Market Musings

    TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - The most notable observation Tuesday was the number of potential 1-day reversals in commodities. Silver, crude, beans and gold started the day strong, but ended weak, as monetary saber rattling out of China impacted the reflation trade. Curiously bonds took another header, and copper was relatively firm. The trends of these commodities remains positive, and their correlations with one another remains curiously high. We believe their behavior will be important for stocks, as they're the messenger of global growth.

    We're very close to the seasonal peak for December in the S&P, and we've actually been substantially stronger than average up to this point in the month. The market tends to consolidate from here until Christmas, and then it re-accelerates. The point is to not read too much into a consolidation over the next week or two, they are typical, and they usually result in a firmer, not weaker, run into the new-year as well

    And last, but not least


    Monday, December 06, 2010

    Santa Rally Ahead?

    .. it remains to be seen, but don't count out the power that is the Bernank. Just a few charts, as I'm out of the loop a little here, but it doesn't look like I've missed too much based on what I see.

    Tomorrow's eco-data includes before the bell: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales and the Redbook. 3:00 PM is Consumer Credit

    ndx_12_6 spy_12_6
    iwm_12_6 spx_gann_12_6




    Meanwhile… back at the ranch.. We’re still in the middle of Chanukah-

    best wishes to all of you celebrating.  ;-)


    Thursday, December 02, 2010

    Losing my mind…

    Lets keep it simple – long term daily chart – if that red Maginot Line will give – well, lets talk about it IF that happen.




    Now same daily – just zoomed.

    TODAY is 13 DT Countdown 13 Sell…loco me added to short position on close (still only 50% of what I normally allocate to derivatives)





    And 240 is the most confusing – on one hand same 13 sell as on daily, on another – just you look at that wave – are we in 5???





    And since it feels like all females are gone with the wind (for now) – this is how crazy I feel while losing my mind…


    Tuesday, November 30, 2010

    Quick SPX update

    Judging by total inability of SP500 to decisively move away (up) from lower TDST lines (current and prior setups as well) it might just hit the fan tomorrow and when it does it normally falls hard after it bounce…feels like something is cooking and starting to smell.

    (Disclosure – I did not get a chance to enter short on close, so I am flat going into tomorrow)


    Monday, November 29, 2010

    SPY/QQQQ Video review (Monthly)

    [Video below is not posted on Youtube – to view, please, visit Trading To Win Blog]



    Posted on Trading to win (this is the chart/"speculation" I referred during the video)

    "August 22nd 2009

    There is not enough data on S&P500 to attempt to find comparable data points in similar Market Crashes, so first chart is Dow Jones Industrial Average (even with DJIA, in spite of been created in 1986, I can only pull electronic data starting 1937)

    The ONLY completed weekly DOWN wave took place starting 1937.

    As you can see on the first chart below W2 and W4 retraced over 76%/62% of corresponding down moves and then multi year slow bleeding started with W5 in November 1938 and W5 printed low in April 1942. (from 156 to 93 - another almost 40% loss from W5 high)
    Next chart down is current Wave count
    and these 2 charts are as much of a DJIA as you will ever get on this page - this nonsense index is even more misleading in assessing market/economic health than broader indexes like S&P500"



    Saturday, November 20, 2010

    Thanksgiving Vacation

    I'd like to wish to all of you and your families a very good Thanksgiving (You know my favorite saying: "Family first")

    I will be taking entire week off the market and blogging and using it to recharge my "batteries" and move to my new home in Stamford, CT (fell in love with the house the moment I saw that birch in front of the main entrance, as you know birch - slightly different from North American - is almost like "National Russian Tree").

    I've been living "in the bushes" for too long and really miss civilization and people on the streets not only during rush hour and in only few "in front of business' doors" locations.


    Be good, stay warm, be kind (screw "nice")









    You may keep yourselves busy coloring this pretty picture – if you dumb just like that boy to welcome the enemies into your home…oh, I forgot, that is just a propaganda – NONE invited anyone here….


    Weekly Sector Report | 11/19/10 (by Leisa)

    The total market index was basically flat at .15% change. Within the total market, banks, other financials and utilities were the most notable underperformers. Below is a graphic of the 23 sectors and the total market index. (Click all images to make larger).
    Let's take a look at a WEEKLY chart of Total Stock Market Index that includes the volume@price bars:
    The markets continue to work off overbought conditions.  As we saw last week, the market is still very fragile to news that surprises regarding sovereign debt. It is also worth noting that for the first time, bonds and stocks have diverged.  TLT has fallen with a falling stock market.  So while the flight to safety might be in the USD, it is not going into treasuries. I have created for you a chart book with the daily, weekly sector charts in addition to the table of 148 industries sorted by performance as well as short interest per sector.  It is a large file, so please be patient with the download.  You may access it here.

    (I see that David has closed the site down until after the holidays.  No rest for the wicked though, so here is the sector report for those who use it.  Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday.  It is a holiday for gratitude. I believe that a grateful heart is the purest of all. May you have many blessings for which to be grateful!)

    Thursday, November 18, 2010

    Just a bounce or range establishing day?

    2 thirds of today's gains came from opening gap.  SPY tries to hold 118.50sh support area, and even after this move TD Setup Buy count is intact, printing 7 today.

    USO (AS I said yesterday I closed 1/3rd of long put, but I reopened 1/2 of that closed 3rd today into the bounce) did the same trick trying to hold older support/neckline and bounced almost all the way to TDST (I will add puts at 36 area)


    Wednesday, November 17, 2010

    Hump Day

    Probably the only good thing about today is it's Hump Day, and we can finally move on tomorrow past this GM IPO fandango. Beyond all of that hoopla, China is worth watching here, imo- and watching this chart was quite fruitful to us in early 2010. Is this going to be a "here we go again?" I don't know, but beyond the noise about Ireland and Portugal, I think this is the horse to watch here.

    Anyway.. here are a few charts, and a video Tyler found earlier- click to link- it would not embed for me.  (thanks, Tyler  ;-) )- and how apropos on the day when it’s announced The Dinosaur will be receiving the Medal of Freedom.  Whatever…


    iwm_11_17 dx_11_17
    qqqq_11_17 spy_11_17




    Click image for video


    Have a fabulous trading day tomorrow TTWrs! 

    Good job as always as we navigate this swamp.  ;-)

    Tuesday, November 16, 2010

    Saturday, November 13, 2010

    Blogger's email Broken.


    It started in the beginning of November and I cannot see anything wrong with settings I used before, beside there were NO changes made to system settings.


    Email is NOT sent out when I post directly to the blogs blog or post using LiveWriter – it only going out when I post new topic into the Google group itself.


    Based on this info I think it is a problem with Blogger “BlogSend address” – it is NOT being sent out

    (Settings è email&mobile è blogSend Address )


    I filed support "question" (Blogger provides NO support) and I saw that quite a lot of Bloggers having the very same problem once in a while.


    Brandt from Trade Guild is having the same kind of problem – we working to resolve it, but Blogger is not keen on resolving issues…


    Lets hope it'll be fixed …soon

    Thursday, November 11, 2010

    Oily thoughts

    First time in a very long time I see something I am really willing to trade in the near future, if not tomorrow.

    Below are multiple timeframes of USO – poor man's /CL – on daily TD Sequential Countdown 13 Sell, Setup Sell, Fuji-San's ab-cd (which is as Trader Steve fairly noted is "nottin" more than an A-B-C of E-Wave) completed.



    240min chart has formed Combo sell as well (though there is a chance that it might still go higher…there is always "a chance" even one on a million …and a lot of time in trading that 1 on a million is the one that works.


    It is a brave new world out there, "we have a better chances of surviving if we stay together" [Gladiator]


    Here is a very lengthy, but very good "bigger/saner picture view from Jeremy Grantham, surprise surprise – it is CNBS..ce (Thank you so much to

    image Iguanadon

    for finding it!)