[Video below is not posted on Youtube – to view, please, visit Trading To Win Blog]
Posted on Trading to win (this is the chart/"speculation" I referred during the video)
There is not enough data on S&P500 to attempt to find comparable data points in similar Market Crashes, so first chart is Dow Jones Industrial Average (even with DJIA, in spite of been created in 1986, I can only pull electronic data starting 1937)
The ONLY completed weekly DOWN wave took place starting 1937.
As you can see on the first chart below W2 and W4 retraced over 76%/62% of corresponding down moves and then multi year slow bleeding started with W5 in November 1938 and W5 printed low in April 1942. (from 156 to 93 - another almost 40% loss from W5 high)
Next chart down is current Wave count
and these 2 charts are as much of a DJIA as you will ever get on this page - this nonsense index is even more misleading in assessing market/economic health than broader indexes like S&P500"