Monday, March 31, 2008

EEM Looks poised to rise

CompanySymbol% Assets
Brazilian Petroleum Corporation ADRN/A2.45
China Mobile LtdN/A2.51
Gazprom OAO (EDR)N/A3.59
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (ADR)N/A2.65
Samsung Electnc GDR 144AN/A3.07
Vale (ADR)N/A1.98

XHB to the resque?

Could very well pierce 200MA - will be a lot of fun

Bearish/Bullish Signals

MS Word Doc has been posted at

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Well Done XLF

Below is a post from Member Site dated March 25th


Tuesday, March 25, 2008


I wish that would hold water and if market would only care about technician's view - tomorrow would be a very "nice" down day for financial sector. XLF is hitting Fibonacci Level and upper trendline of descending price channel at the same time - bounced off very nicely today - will continue down move tomorrow? Last not least - volume during upward move was "less than impressive"


And this is XLF 3 days later and more than 8% "cheaper" ( SKF Ultra performed admirably...)

Friday, March 28, 2008

"The not so great white bold hype A.K.A. Cramer"

Not watching CNBC and definitely not watching Cramer ( it would put me in the same crowd I worked so hard to get away from...). But my kid all in a sudden got interested in "easy money" ( I will try to keep her away from it as long as I can or until she'll rename it to "hard money" ).
So, she is watching screaming ... ... .... .... I don't want to say what I think, sorry reading public and I hear annoying arrogant shouting: "EPDeeeeeeeeee"
For whatever reason I type it into my charting software and surely enough, like many, many times before ( those who's been following my blog for a while know about "Curse of Cramer" and "AM I been stacked?" anyhow - the stock he is pumping, surely had buy signal 2 days ago ( based on indicator which I've been using for a while and improved substantially). Sorry, will refrain bringing "his" name up for a while - need to take some Mylanta now.

On a positive note - I am 100% net long as of close today, my new holdings include DAL ( luckily enough - bought it under $8 in the morning - WOW ), CROX ( don't hate me, please, BX and DHI ( feeling suicidal ), TIBX Apr7.50 calls, $RUT Apr690 calls, big DUG position, will buy into UYG Monday first thing in the morning. ( closed last of SKF calls today ), VCLK Apr17.50 calls

We ( and Trading to Win) might be doing some public day trading sessions, unscheduled - a lot of people expressed interest and we cannot accommodate everybody - we'll try to find a crack in our time and do a good, hopefully unpunished, deed :)) - if interested send email to email address at the top of the page ( First Come First Served )

Nobody likes to be a looser!

To be precise - nobody in the mutual funds world want to have too many losers on quarterly report. That is why most beaten down sectors continued to suffer losses today.
I like to take my chances and get some short term plays on a cheap. I was building long position from airline, homebuilders and small cap stocks from the very morning. Somehow - airlines already paid off - nice bounce. I don't think it'll get much "cheaper" on Monday - if market will be down - I'd keep adding to my long positions. Bought some $RUT near the money April calls as well. Cheers.
Have a great and peaceful weekend...

P.S. Tempted to add some health care stocks, but problems are too deep to bother.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

The "magic" of Fibonacci Levels

(IWM), (XLF), (SKF) and many other indexes/ETFs retraced to corresponding Fib Level, hovering around, trying to find support as I type.
(SPY) components slightly improved ( for falling stocks things continue to get worse).
Very interesting moment - I think outcome will depend a lot on (ORCL) ER - if it'll be good - nothing will happen ( it is expected to be good), but if (ORCL) is going to "blink" - I am very glad I am 100% net short since yesterday. Will post charts to night on Members Site.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Market outlook - is it possible to know?

On march 13th in the post Market is about to change
I sighted buy signal on QQQQ weekly chart.

As we know now that prediction was dead spot on accurate as market moved substantially higher since that date.

Since yesterday I was closing my long positions and building short/puts positions, today by market close I am almost done with "the plan". I am very leery about been short right now, but I will primarily stay short until, let say IWM behavior will not change my intention. As of now $72.50 area represents very strong resistance, $70 is a Fibonacci retracement ( give or take ) and market has been moving up fueled by short covering and selloff in commodities long enough. If IWM will be able to penetrate $70, what I, personally, would not like due to been short from today, and if $72 will be taken, what I, personally, would not like even more ( at least we will know that "the market has changed - really".

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Whole new world out there - is it really?

Firstly - I'd like to express my gratitude to "Mr. incognito" who just posted unusually generous donation sighting one letter on it:
Obviously my observations on Sprint AH activities already made someone happy. I guess if "someone" bought today at about 5.80 in the morning and sold at the end of the day ( of course, market was great for bulls ) at about 6.30 - steady climb with no shake offs would help - that makes 10% with really limited risk. Thank you again!
( I opened really large Apr5 calls positions today - might work out or it might not - never know with Mr. Market , might just get killed by time decay "Greek" )

Since March 13th I was more and more inclined to start covering shorts faster and hold longs longer. Today added to that intention, here is why.

Small cap blinking BUY signal on monthly chart, of course, it might change - month is not over yet, but if it will remain intact that would signal at least consolidation in small cap - obviously rate cuts starting to work its way through the system. ( I have to note that from all the signals I use the one popped up on (IWM) is the fastest and least reliable, but it is a start )

That was a "good news", the bad news is - on a shorter timeframe IWM does not look that hot, today it hit overhead supply resistance - it might be able to penetrate, but I still very cautious and not convinced at all - will watch.

Still sell on monthly ( don't get to excited if we get short lived rally )
Better on weekly, very bad on daily - beware.

will most likely attempt to get closer to 200MA about 140 with help of financial components - same here - will be going short at those levels most likely ( there is a big chance that it will just bounce off 135 level and fall from there )

(DIA) looks exactly like (SPY)
I think 12666 ( yes,I used that number on purpose ) is a short setup
We'll know when we'll live another day...

Have a great weekend - watch your eggs!

P.S. I am on "vacation" kind of, will answer emails and requests after weekend, sorry for delays. Brandt from Trade Guild was holding the helm for almost a week now.

One more thing - sorry for not been able to keep up with Day Trading sessions requests - we try to keep it very limited, you need to understand - that is NOT how we make money, quite opposite - doing that "thingie" is very distractive for our own trading - bear with us, please.

Yet, another thing - if you find content of this site and
Trade Guild
"entertaining", the least you can do to show your appreciation is to "spread the word" on financial groups - we'd really appreciate THAT!

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

What is next in Stock Market?

Good March 19th morning my profitable friends.
Profitable if the voice of reason ( and GUT FEEL ) was heard and by that I mean March 13th market outlook:

Market is about to change

Today is a whole new day, whole new game - well, not really
THIS IS STILL A BEAR MARKET - as long as this understood we can continue.

Don't have too much time on hands, but here is something that caught my attention yesterday after market close:

03/18/08 15:59:59 5.91 5.9 5.91 5000
03/18/08 15:59:59 5.9 5.9 5.91 100
03/18/08 16:02:44 5.9 6 6.01 25000
03/18/08 16:02:44 5.75 6 6.01 1500
03/18/08 16:02:44 5.92 6 6.01 1172300
03/18/08 16:03:30 6 5.86 6 1000
03/18/08 16:04:00 5.92 5.86 6 5000
03/18/08 16:05:35 5.9 5.86 5.9 1000
03/18/08 16:05:46 5.91 5.86 5.9 400
03/18/08 16:07:15 5.91 5.86 5.97 7300
03/18/08 16:09:22 5.91 5.86 5.93 38700
03/18/08 16:11:06 5.92 5.86 5.91 774810
03/18/08 16:11:06 5.92 5.86 5.91 300
03/18/08 16:11:06 5.92 5.86 5.91 38700
03/18/08 16:12:55 5.91 5.86 5.91 200
03/18/08 16:14:02 5.92 5.86 5.92 7300
03/18/08 16:14:02 5.92 5.86 5.92 128200
03/18/08 16:14:02 5.92 5.86 5.92 127200
03/18/08 16:18:52 5.92 5.86 5.9 127200
03/18/08 16:26:20 5.72 5.72 5.72 31800
03/18/08 16:26:40 5.72 5.72 5.72 31800
03/18/08 16:26:55 5.72 5.72 5.72 31800
03/18/08 16:27:00 5.92 5.86 5.92 1243801
03/18/08 16:27:20 5.9 5.9 5.9 1250
03/18/08 16:27:40 5.9 5.9 5.9 1250
03/18/08 16:27:55 5.9 5.9 5.9 1250
03/18/08 16:29:46 5.9 5.86 5.9 1243801
03/18/08 16:29:46 5.9 5.86 5.9 700
03/18/08 16:39:37 5.92 5.86 5.9 7000
03/18/08 16:40:20 5.92 5.92 5.92 1750
03/18/08 16:40:40 5.92 5.92 5.92 1750
03/18/08 16:40:55 5.92 5.92 5.92 1750
03/18/08 16:45:06 5.92 5.86 5.9 1244501
03/18/08 16:45:06 5.92 5.86 5.9 30600
03/18/08 16:45:06 5.92 5.86 5.9 4300
03/18/08 17:36:20 5.9 5.9 5.9 100
03/18/08 17:36:40 5.9 5.9 5.9 100
03/18/08 17:36:55 5.9 5.9 5.9 100
03/18/08 17:49:00 5.9 5.86 5.92 1279401
03/18/08 18:13:20 5.92 5.92 5.92 125
03/18/08 18:13:40 5.92 5.92 5.92 125
03/18/08 18:13:55 5.92 5.92 5.92 125
03/18/08 18:30:00 5.92 5.86 5.92 1279401
03/19/08 08:25:32 6.09 5.88 5.92 2400
03/19/08 08:27:32 6.25 5.88 6.75 5400
03/19/08 08:43:20 5.9 5.95 6.2 100
03/19/08 08:55:18 5.95 5.95 6.1 500

So, what is that "mystery trades?"

Sunday, March 16, 2008

"Too Big To Fall, where Bear goes market goes"

No comments... I am NOT HIM...

Bear Stearns Chief Executive Alan Schwartz

Short OIL ( USO) - long DUG???

Last few days I was really confused by divergences between USO and DUG - both were going up on substantial volume ( to be precise - DUG was just staying flat in spite of USO creeping higher ). I think that "unreliable broadening formation" might really let go, at least short term. I might start building longer term (DUG) position by the end of next week.

To refresh recent thoughts on oil -
Below is a repost of 3/6/08 take on OIL
Morning thoughts on Oil A.K.A. USO for equities traders
posted 03/06/08 08:55 AM | Viewed 32 times

USO is breaking out...out of highly unreliable broadening formation, notoriously famous for producing really short lived moves in the direction of breakout and high failure rates. I will be starting to build DUG position right from open today - especially if Crude Oil will open higher or move higher in the first hour.


( Thursday's morning 8:55 long DUG call have produced about 10% in 2 days )

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Best Discount Brokers

( My Broker of Choice )


When I first discovered TOS, I was impressed as much as back in 1996 when I moved my account to DATEK. I think TOS is as cutting edge today as DATEK was before Ameritrade screwed it up.
Multiple fee schedules for every taste and they open for negotiation based on your trading volume.
Execution speed - if it is marketable order - I have not finished pushing "send order button" and message popping up confirming executed order. W O W
In addition when you place an order you SEE your order on level 2 ( based on your order ID)
The only broker I know who communicates REAL time any technical problem with traders over popup messages.
Desktop Trading software is on par with cockpit of space shuttle...and it WORKS...and it works so fast with such a huge amount of data transmitted that I keep wondering "how did they do that?". No delays, no hiccups, no problems.
( There is also Web Based trading, Cell Phone Trading, Pocket PC Trading - they got all covered )
Education they provide is THE BEST free education. PERIOD.

I still remember the time when there a lot of different choices for someone who wanted to save money and find a quality outfit for parking money and placing occasional trade without getting hit with hidden fees, inactivity fees, maintenance fees - you name it. The time has changed, consolidation is the name of the game now, discount brokers are getting bigger and, I cannot say "better".

But few month ago I discovered nice small outfit TradeKing and I might be wrong, but I think it is a best broker for occasional trader ( especially for options trader).

Low trade cost $4.95 no matter how many shares or how much it is
.65c per options contract

But what really set them apart from many other brokers is their "communities"
Free user blogs ( you don't even have to have an account, just be registered user)
Forums ( nice crowd there )

I've never seen so many free Quality research tools TradeKing has.
Free Options screeners by ( I think it is not free at Ivolatility itself, need to double check )

Technical analysis tools, with free access to Insignia chart patter recognition software
List goes on and on.
I'd highly recommend to check them out - just ask them first "If they fixed real time quotes issue with their provider Alpha Trade"

I am not an affiliate of any of these brokers, but if you decide to open an account with them - it would be a nice gesture to let them and me know about it - does not cost anything to you, but will add $50 to my kid's trading account :-)

Friday, March 14, 2008


Amazing strength demonstrated in this horrible tape - cannot stand temptation and bought some, the very company I know will and is affected by consumer credit crunch.

"Comfortable Numb"

Have you noticed that after day like that on the market, when you get sick to the stomach ( unless you hedged with nicely performing shorts) - yuo wake up next going up, you see familiar stocks - and you say to yourself: "Why oh why did not I buy that stock....."

Bought LPNT and Mar22.50 SNDK calls @.50/.55

100% net long as of now ( closed all short positions )

I think I have been watching market for such a long time that something died in me and I don't feel a thing ( I even removed GAIN/LOSS column from the streamer - I have more time to think about trades that way )

"Last shoe to drop..."

Run on the banks...
Investors lining up trying to get some money back...
Government and CHASE ( JP MORGAN are stepping in to save country...
Date Started: 11/21/1916
Date Ended: 12/19/1917

Total Days: 393
Starting DJIA: 110.15
Ending DJIA: 65.95
Total Loss: -40.1%

Sounds familiar?

Love that market

Love that market - especially when "Game plan"

Closed DUG overnight position at 39.47 ( cost 37.70 )
dumped few VMW puts with 50% overnight gain
bought some ANAD and JBLU ( call me crazy )

So far "3 steps plan" had 2 steps fulfilled
1. up in premarket
2. collapse after open

Now I'd love to see strong run toward the close - that will confirm my "turnaround " thoughts - if market will close down - "apocalypses now redux" :)

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Market is about to change

Catchy title - will get to the point right away.

First and foremost - if QQQQ will manage to close tomorrow above 42.30 area - there will be either
1. Rally and change of trend - up it goes
2. Period of consolidation, with trading range contraction, less wild swings.
Above is very likely to happen

Now, some speculation what is going to happen tomorrow.
Before report market will be trading up in pre-market
After report it will dive - if it will - I will close ALL short positions
then sometime during mid-session...and this is what I will be watching - if market will reverse and start moving up - then - we have got ourselves some changes.

I've become aware of possible change 2 days ago, below is what I posted on sectors on March 11th:
***start quote***
"Brand new ( well, it was new yesterday ) BUY signal for HOMEBUILDERS - not saying it is a bottom - it is a trading opportunity

NASDAQ 100 tech components - fresh BUY signal
same for NASDAQ 100
same for S&P500
same for SIC-3674 Semiconductors and Related Devices ( what a surprise )

NASDAQ BIOTECH is still in the dog house ( late to short, don't buy )
same goes for RETAIL

NASDAQ FINANCIAL - amazing accuracy of 3 days old BUY signal"
***end quote***

Tonight I've noticed huge number of buy signals in multiple sectors ( even health care - surprise - surprise)

Have not finished digging yet, will continue to research - for now - here is a chart of QQQQ with (might change tomorrow ) BUY SIGNAL

It is all about making money and be on the right side of the market


Nicely caught short term "buy" signal on GLD and gold miners

(QQQQ) Update

As long as (QQQQ) will not cross above 43.50 area - I take this rally as a gift - gift for opening new short positions.
They say - sell when it feels too good, buy when market is bleeding

So far Buy signal on QQQQ ( NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ Technology components ) generated 2 days ago worked like charm, I cannot wait to see what my system will generate tonight ( I run analysis after market close )

Selecting trades and finding strength to stay with our convictions

This is a brutal market, it makes bulls to lose money it makes bears to loose money, unless you are on the right side of the market and picked your fights yourself and have stayed the course - alongside with major trend - down, down, down - until proven otherwise.

Just few volitile days and Bulls happy, now Bears happy, flip-flop - again .... again ... again...

STAY WITH THE MAJOR TREND ( Unless you Day Trade or very short term, like 1 or 2 days swing trader )

Posted on Member Site at 3/11/2008 10:44:00 AM