Friday, August 30, 2013

Conflicting thoughts

Following DWave charts reveal my prior 1610 downside target which I though would have been achieved by Aug 22nd – which was not. Looks like it is still a target – and that does not play well with my “Top Sep 8th” thesis.




Thursday, August 29, 2013

Mid Market Crisis

Still definitely sticking with my original scenario, but doubts crippling into my mind – that happens to me when a lot of instruments are in “no trade land”.


Therefore I will try to convince myself that I am right …


Looking at Japan’s NIKKEI futures /NKD – it formed descending wedge (bullish) and in the process of doing partial drop trick to 13380 area TDST 2 hours – after which I think it will go up to say goodbye to lower side of huge triangle from May 22 high.




Silver – almost hit my target (that is why I closed that trade even though I think it might go higher, but I am not up to a choppy ride – I like more certain things.





Crude – closed close to 33% line of the channel – so far looks like that was right thing to do




SPX (pardon our messy chart) – looks like it is forming diamond bottom – reversal pattern – it it holds water – my thesis of “September 9th top” might still work




My point is – even though I am quite confident in my “preferred” scenario – if things prove me wrong – I will turn on a dime and play it by ear.

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Bias update

Really short post - I expect sizable bounce to start (well - it started today really)

Energy/Utilities started to move today due to earlier Buy Setups completions, Financials will move up tomorrow ...Emerging markets will follow

I will be long with moderate position till around September 9th.

How is that for a short post?

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Back to the plan "A"



Chart above was posted on August 18th

S&P500 (SPX) A-B-C corrective D-Wave dates and targets


Then on August 21st morning I think I posted on Disqus that, in a nutshell,

wave "A" is about to "print" and I will be easing on my short positions,

because usually when new wave "prints" there is an immediate reaction, might be not long lasting, but there is one.


What puzzled me at that time (Aug 21st) was that SPX did not get to 2 days TDST around 1606 area and did not get even remotely close to that "gold channel". Coupled with model of my friend who is a very gifted mathematician that called for bottom around Aug 23rd - I decided "that was it" ... never easy.

But now we are back on original track and - surprise - since wave B takes close higher (in this case) than prior 8 closes - I think that "another top around Sep 9th" is still plausible.

I made 5 /es points this morning on a long side and then went long twice via shorting SPXS - as a result I broke even for the day ... duh...

When prior low was penetrated and in a while after it did not hold ( that was when I closed second losing trade) - I went short into tomorrow, my expectation is that in the morning there will be slight continuation of today's selloff and I will try to cover as close to 1610-15 as possible and might even go long till .... broken record - September 9th+, though I was punished time and again for trading against trend ... which is down since August 2nd. But temptation is strong - right shoulder might be forming.


Of course, I could say "I wish I stayed short", but I have no regrets, I needed a brake from trading (yeah, right - what about long /cl on Aug 19 ... or 20th - can not even remember).

And I believe that I will have a chance to reshort at slightly better price again - time will tell.

My final target for the end of this correction into mid-end of October is still in SPX 1450 area

To sum it up: tomorrow or the day after tomorrow - when SPX gets as close to 1606 I will cover today's position and leftovers of original short position (not much, but by holding into it I locked in some extra profits)

And either will go lightly long or will just sit and wait September to remember.


Sunday, August 25, 2013

The REAL S&P500

There was an old trading story, some may call it a legend:


When new trader was hired by the prominent trading outfit he went into the head trader’s office to be introduced. What he saw surprised him enormously – head trader was standing on the table and looking down on the floor where multitude of the charts were spread out. Newly hired trader could not hide his surprise, but the answer he received was quite simple: “You need to distance yourself from the market, your ideas, influences to be able to see BIG PICTURE” said head trader…


This is what I will try to do today – not just distance from the market, but zoom out as much as I can to try to see Big Picture.


And the main point of my “viewing” would be to imagine were market might be going on the longer timeframe and to be just I will introduce INFLATION into the pricing of the market.


When we look at the monthly D-Wave what we see is that due to new, even inflation adjusted, highs have been made in August 2013, therefore monthly Dwave 5 has to be extended and what we have is a complete mess and guesses and … nothing I really like to base my trading on.


See this chart – nothing to like here, move along…


2013-08-24_1946 really boring indeed…


But now lets introduce inflation into pricing and what will happen is that we are in the very beginning of totally new wave structure because previous 1-5-A-C completed!



S_P_500_Inflation_Adjusted_chart_May_2013 (2)

So, if that holds water, then August 2nd top (if holds) is, in fact an end of wave 1, and, if market doomsayers are correct – then next wave we will indeed retrace almost all the way down to Evil-ish SPX 666 (normally 62-70%+ retrace is not unusual to shake most of longs.


I will add this inflation adjusted chart to “BIG PICTURE” page and we shall see if it holds water.



Now, on the different topic – someone asked me on natural gas forum about my trade – below is the chart, entered based on declining channel, exited based on the same, will be waiting now for the confirmation of the trend change. Profited handsomely – with contract margin's roughly $2,600 realized profit in the pocket is around 100% for 3 weeks trade plus 2 heart attacks and countless ulcers.






And last, but not least – as a reminder of my “TOPS/BOTTOMS” expectations based on DeMark D-Wave coupled with my own ideas:


SELL end wave 5 - August 2nd-5th 2013

BUY end wave A - August 22nd -23rd 2013

SELL B - September 7th-10th 2013

low/buy point C - mid to end of October 2013 (and stay long or out of market till the beginning of 2014)



So far bears were totally gutless and harmless, just making pitiful sounds of own demise, but make no mistake – starting September 10th (around) – they will show first real bite and in the beginning of 2014 – they will be ruling this market for entire year.


Too bad most AmeriKans do not know any other language than English…

well – majority do not know even that language





Friday, August 23, 2013

10 year note taking a breather for few weeks

Its hitting weekly TDST/TDRL levels – going to take some time to consolidate for further move up.





So shall we (take a breather that is…) – enjoy your weekend



P.S. At this time I am practically flat on cash, only long small /CL position from 8/20 @105ish and some far out outs – far out in time and money :)

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Quick Update

Few days ago I presented short idea - (WHR)

- it is not behaving properly (due to declaring quarterly dividends today) - it is OFF short list. Or should I say - it is behaving properly by telling us that it is consolidating between TDST and TDRL therefore is getting ready for move higher?



Coupled with my expectations of short term market bottom - I expect market to start either moving up or consolidate from August 22nd ( +/- a day) up until September 7-10, I will be closing a lot of shorter duration puts and easing down on ultra ETFs...

As an experiment - ( I will NOT have that position) let see if TESORO (TSO) can be traded on the long side solely based on DeMark and in total contradiction to traditional TAs.

45 is a good entry


Friday, August 16, 2013

NIKKEI – next stop 13000

Enjoy your weekend – with great American innovation – get off your fat bottoms and dance your money losing sadness away!






Crude Oil is ready to go to 114 level. THe very same level that corresponds to 2011 market correction… hmm…




Market thoughts


Just to remind – I think next buy point for a bounce will be on Wed-Fri next week. That is when I plan to close my closest puts and some ultra short positions and may be go long for 2 weeks bounce. Will see…

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Nail in the coffin of the equities markets? (USO)

If you think today's selloff was unpleasant - wait oil to break through TDST/TDRL  levels



Tuesday, August 13, 2013

The cleanest short there is - (WHR)

If someone into shorting individual stocks - here my "gift"

Stop around 137. I think it has potential go to 120 at least. Not overnight of course ... they do not trade overnight at NYSE





Bonus chart - (GLD)

It is in corrective uptrend of wave C, will set high probably by the end of August, has potential to go to 135-140.

Then it might be followed by directionless mess - in short- the easy short trade is over for now. But my thought is that gold is and will be for a while in the bear market (remember - bear market might be sideways as well)



Friday, August 09, 2013

The moment I waited for – or down with (PCLN)

Today I finally pulled the plug on (PCLN) short.

WHY would I do it TODAY if there is only monthly sell setup and nothing else?

If nothing else – I was waiting for that price target for a long time – and the fact that exhaustion gap today coincided with my price target just reinforces my conviction.

I posted on Disqus and StockTweets around 2PM EDT my trade – long puts PCLN 800 strike Oct 13. Filled at the “bargain price” in the spread around 1.90 per contract.







This is just a speculation indeed – but this is where I think /ES is going to be by AUGUST 19th




Monday, August 05, 2013

/ES update

2013-08-05_2145 This is 4 hours /ES chart, quite self descriptive, multiple channels.

There is negative divergence on RSI, if “gold channel” breaks – target is around 1670sh, then, possibly, head and shoulder might be forming.





Channel is changing – breaking “gold” ascending turning to “green” descending. Possibly continuing to build head and shoulder. Bounce to 1696 possible or higher.





YET ANOTHER UPDATE NOON AUGUST 9th – channels at work




Saturday, August 03, 2013

Are we there yet?



A lot of bears finally say: “Oh well, it is a bull market indeed”


A lot of bulls say: “We told you so”


Some wonnabies technicians say: “Top is on July 19th”


A lot of traders possessing common sense getting hate emails – Todd Harrison and yours truly to name just a few (Of course Todd is much smarter, but I am better looking)


VIX is down 7% in the flat market.


Possible “outside event” (that is how I read consulates closings all around Middle East) does not matter.


This is when that brown smelly stuff hits the fan … of course “this time is might be different”




Some people say that history does not repeat [exactly], but it rhymes.


This is the “Grand Channel” off 666 Evil Lows in 2007.

It shows 2 D-Waves


Compare waves “5”s ends



Now – look at he closeups of 5-A-B-C 2011 and recent possible 5 top and Andrew’s Pitchfork off lows of wave 5 over the tops and bottoms of “shakedowns”



2011 ( same chart – same grey channel line )



2013 ( same chart – same grey channel line )



How look at the channel of wave 5 of 2013 (different chart)


2013-08-03_1657 Same chart, just last two months – see how desperately SPX is trying to stay in wave 5 channel? It broke down, got back in, hanging by the thread, but rate of incline has changed dramatically (channels are self descriptive here) compared to the rise off June 24 low.














P.S. And don’t forget to look at the “The "Big Picture" OR Long Term Charts” – I do not want to be accused that I keep looking for Total Recall of Faulty Cruel World or PeeTree.


Thursday, August 01, 2013

Mirror image?


If it is - then it is a good news for bears.

But even if it IS - back in 2011 SPX overshot prior top about 35 points, which with difference in levels today might make good 40 points and lace (SPX) in the vicinity of 1720-1730???

Should have done this comparison earlier ... shoulda woulda coulda...


UPDATED:  TNX - ten year note chart added

It is a very nice cup and does not look like TDST is stopping it - lets see how market will react on move above prior high of 2.72% which was slowed down by weekly TDSequential Countdown 13 as well as setup Sell. And G-d forbid it moves above TDRL of about 2.85% ...