Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Goldman Sucks is just as dumb as we all are

they are just better connected.  And, may be, some of us .. are smarter…


May 7th 2008 Goldman: Natural Gas Crunch Possible This Winter

(that is about 5 weeks to collapse)


Sep 14th 2009 U.S. Natural Gas to Rise as Output Drops, Goldman Sachs Says

(As I can tell that was a stupid attempt to pick the bottom based on weekly TDSequential Countdown 13 Buy – they are so "good" with fundamental reasoning)


Mar 29th We believe natural gas prices are near bottom

"Goldman sees natural gas prices rising as high as $6 per thousand British thermal units by the fourth quarter of this year, above the current futures price of about $5"

They got to be smoking some really good Lloyd's stuff – they disregard current /NG prices and go straight to 4th quarter contracts – which I cannot even find YET!!!


Some date in the future: Goldman says Natural Gas price hit definite bottom…at 0



events for tomorrow:

Motor Vehicle Sales[Report][djStar]



Monster Employment Index 6:00 AM ET


Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 AM ET


Jobless Claims [Report][djStar]8:30 AM ET


ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET


Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET


EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET


DDT here April 1st 2010 10AM EST




Happy Easter


President Ronald Reagan's radio address on Easter and Passover from Rancho del Cielo


"Do you think we can have these things one day?"  Do you feel lucky?  Do you?

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

New Classic

SPX tagging trendline that helped to identify rising bearish ("is it bullish?") wedge from October to January ( Maroon lines)and getting squeezed by merging ascending channel from the low of Wave 4 on daily – I thing give it a day or two and we might just get some action similar to January 21st (as long as we stay UNDER trendline/schmendline)



That's all for SPX for now


And here is more of an attempt to convince myself that my long /NG trade has a lot of underlying technical reasons, such as

1.Reason one

2. reason two

3. etc

2010-03-30_2133 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

And now some slightly unusual presentation – really proud to present Lola – virtuoso, lovely and from my home town! ( not to overlook that she attended the same conservatory and was student of some of the same teachers as my ex wife, who married me three times, yeah,,, – I had an artistic taste when I was young – musicians, poets, designers, models – all came home to the rust now and I am as alone as palm tree in the middle of the dessert…).

The way she plays is the way this market has to be traded – we have a lot to learn…



Lola Astanova’s

Spin on Classical:

Bare Midriffs

( Read More )









Monday, March 29, 2010

Show us something we have not seen…

This is getting as monotonous as it gets…

It is not rinse – repeat anymore…it is "hey, good morning folks, lets do our usual bullshit act – buy from each other on borrowed money – we are not going to be around when fecal will hit the big populist fan"

Pardon me saying it, but this is exactly the feeling I have.


Anyhow, /ES channel continues to work magic, I am trading it, but watching really closely for possible breakdown – don't want to be caught off guard.  Did few /es trades and 3 /NG "close long-short/cover-long again now" – crazy contract, but drop after hours provided entry right where I really wanted it.


Few charts…




Market Focus »

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET


8:55 AM ET


S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET


Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET


State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET


4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Cyclical Bull within a Secular Bear Market

2010-03-28_1401 Panda on a tree By: OCAL


This is how secular bears work. They are not 17 years of falling prices, but 17 years of sideways grinding punctuated by a serpentine meandering cyclical-bull-then-cyclical-bear cycle. Companies and stock markets don’t cease to exist just because people are scared, life and the economy always march on.

Adam Hamilton, CPA



(SPX) S&P500 "bigger picture"


Not much on the economic calendar for tomorrow – the key event is Big Job Report on Friday where rulers will proudly announce that economy turned around on the bones of insignificant non-tycoons.  What day can be better for good picture than Good Friday!  Don't forget – Pesach AKA Passover starts tomorrow night – volume this week will be light…ehh…EVEN LIGHTER…


Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET


4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET


3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET


6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET



Complements of Lloyd – he wishes everyone to be as well off as he is – that is the G_d's work he does…makes everyone really wealthy…him…himself…his wife…children…his relatives…him…himself…


Friday, March 26, 2010

More of "come together" from jungles of Costa Rica

More of "I'd like to convince myself that if technical analysis work – it is now or never", nothing original – I just want few of you to try the same and tell me what you think (silent readers – don't be silent, please :)


One more thing to throw to the pile is today's GDP numbers – we need a really good news …to start selling




GDP [Report][Star]8:30 AM ET



Corporate Profits [Bullet8:30 AM ET



Consumer Sentiment [Report][djStar]9:55 AM ET




price projection ranges for 3/26/2010








Keep in mind /ES is still in uptrending channel



Thursday, March 25, 2010

Capitulation or Something Else?

I could do about a thousand different charts after we witnessed that sell-off this afternoon, but we can each add our own special recipes down in the post section tonight, and I look forward to whatever you all have up your sleeves. What I'd really like you all to see are the individual charts on the Flying PIIGS. I know we've all been reading the news as this story unfolds, but to be honest, I had really not looked at the technicals on the individual charts until last night. They left me speechless. Forgetting the fundamentals, rumors of bailouts and the like, the technicals by themselves are not too stellar, IMO. Several already have a death cross completed with the 50/200 SMAs. I'll let you judge for yourself, as I'm only going to show you the very basic view of each one of them. When the Trichet statement came out this afternoon, it was one of those “things that make you go hmmm,” moments for me, needless to say. You will also see DDT's and Osi's EOD views for the DM look. As we always do on TTW, remember to use caution trading tomorrow, as we try not to count our chickens or flying pigs before they hatch or crash. This was a one day event, we need to stay trading with heightened awareness. Best to you all! P.S.- Bravo, Osso! He called the Friday lower low rule last week, and although it looked pretty precarious this morning, it’s looking pretty good now!

P.P.S. for newbies and lurkers out there: You will read many, many various trading observations, opinions and calls on this blog, from bullish to bearish- that’s why we’re different here. You will often see us challenge each other- and often. It is YOUR responsibility to understand and/or ask questions if you’re confused or want help/further opinion… we can’t read your mind, but you can count on us trying to answer/help. This is a place of learning and sharing, but the trading is YOUR responsibility alone, not ours. Rule #1- never take a trade that is not based on your own T/A and choice. Lead yourself, do not follow. I can’t emphasize that enough. Read the disclaimer at the bottom of this blog site completely, if you haven’t already. I have seen plenty of “gurus” with loads of happy followers take their trades blindly with both good AND bad results- don’t let yourself be one of those people.

portugal_3_24 italia_3_24
ireland_3_24 greece_3_24


DDT’s chart on /ES

ddt 3 25

Osi’s SPY Chart

osi 3 25

Stepping back (I heard it somewhere!?)

[immature language advisory]

I took a nap and see what have you done???
As I said before - if shit does not change by the end of this week (and SPX 1180 was pretty much the last up target I could accept before correction) - I am on cash and on "silent vacation"


I feel like back in 1999 when my accounts lost 10% in one day, like I was run over by 800lbs gorilla - that, truth to be said, how I feel today (other than feeling dumbed and numbed)

SO, I will STFU for now till the end of the day or feels really sick
and even MORE SICK it feels to look at "GURU Bull chartists" whose ONLY credit was to continue to chart IN THE DIRECTION of the trend (MISSING every single correction on the way OR predicting corrections that never materialized) - these people still might continue to chart "long" all the way to the bottom.

See you all in a while (I will do NO post till AT LEAST Sunday, and I am NOT asking K. to do any posts, but it is up to her) - I think this blog has to find its way somehow - there were a lot of correct opinions (as oppose to my wrong ones), but people who had something to say either were too "opinionated" communicating it or too shy to make the point. (not blaming anyone, just sad that the truth got lost behind blog wars and sarcasm)

So, lets cut the shit and call "bullish" bullish, and "bearish" bearish, and short short and "long" long - not even speaking of losing common sense communicating among ourselves we are causing a lot of confusion for new readers.

Lets stop AnalYzing WHY market goes in the direction it does, we want to talk politics, fairness and all other non productive crap? – I am all for it….just NOT HERE.  This kind of talk ignites fire really fast and influence weak minds like mine very easily (I am getting all pissed off and ready to go on the the street and lay down in front of the tanks and that kind of shit does not help to make money)

When I come back, there will be some "organizational" changes coming to how blog operates, but we'll talk about it later.  (At least as oppose to Mole I am stating that blog will be closed for just 27 minutes :)))


DISQUS acting up again

Correction: DISQUS is not "acting up", but completely  dead
WHat a peace of fecal

While you are wondering if DISQUS will ever work again - visit our sponsored sites or write review for TTW on Amazon Kindle.
That is greatly appreciated

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Free Your Mind

"A narrow mind and a fat head invariably come on the same person" - Zig Ziglar

I just wanted to reiterate the gist of what DDT posted last evening about avoiding the pitfalls, and prat falls for that matter, by allowing too much outside information to seep into your gray matter and trying to trade at the same time. You’re only a victim if you let yourself be victimized. For those who are new to TTW: we trade both ways and we trade everything under the sun that isn't nailed down, and I hope you will free your mind and allow yourself to think outside the box as we go along. It is one of the huge positives about this blog, IMO. Although it "felt" sideways today, and as far as the major indices go, it was... there were some great trades both long and short with high percentage gains. But it requires work to hunt them down, and this is why the real work is not done during trading hours, it's done once the market is closed. My old trading mentor used to tell me to arrive at my work station with at least five longs and five shorts for the day, and when I'm truly disciplined to do so, it makes all the difference in the world. Anyway... just something to consider, because we are after all, a team in here, and there isn’t a person amongst us who doesn’t want the other to succeed. Glad to see so many new faces, btw, and hard working contributors at that! :-)

Before we move on to some charts (both traditional and DDTs mah-va-lous DM charts) and the economic calendar, the big earnings tomorrow include BBY and ORCL- both bell weathers to watch. Both might give us an early clue as to whether or not we’re in for another earnings season of sell the news or not.

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

Ben Bernanke Speaks
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report (good luck Mau and Big!)
10:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

Tim Geithner Speaks
1:30 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET

Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

indu_3_24 iwm_3_24
dx_final_3_24 yg_3_24
gld 3 24 gld daily ddt 3 24

Okay.. you FX traders have some nice trading going on, so have some fun tonight and make us proud! Good trading to you! For you Jay…