Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Down South, South, South... (EWW)

Breaking the silence for a brief moment because (thank you to Tim Knight - I read Slope from time to time, but decided not to post there)

I think that Mexican "Burrito" is about to become "Chimichanga" ... as fried and burnt - as wave C down started most likely




Thursday, July 25, 2013

Entering silent zone

It has been a while since I was getting emails of that kind: "You idiot bear, everything is not so bad and even if it is - stock market will only go up, you cannot fight all the central banks and all the governments of the world" - you get the picture.


Coupled with totally dominating number of people who all of a sudden became so arrogant in their firm believes that they are the smartest and coolest and greatest ... traders ... investors ... everything  - almost like mini versions of G-d all mighty.


Based on that I think I will save my energy, will stop explaining WHY I am short and WHEN I will STOP and reverse short position.  For semantically challenged I present few charts with simple to understand "RED RECTANGLES"


As long as prices are BELOW - I am short.

IF - prices will SUCCESSFULLY move to the upside - I might go long.


My trading timeframes are not hours, not days (unless trade worked out better than expected), I can stay in the trade for as long as my variant perception is intact - and it is not important for me will it take days, weeks or months (I was in gold short trade for almost a year, but few days ago caught quick 40 points down on /YG contracts - I do that too sometimes)

Anyhow - below are the charts with "red decision zones"







300 years cycles are still intact

Delgado said the ships likely went down during the first two decades of the 1800s, which was a time of great upheaval in the Gulf region and in the New World, in general.

"Empires were falling, Spain was losing its grip, France was selling what it has, Mexico becomes independent, Texas independent, Latin America becomes independent and the U.S. is beginning to make a foothold in the Gulf," he said. "So these wrecks are all tied to that, we are sure."



Wednesday, July 24, 2013

(EPI) or there are no triple bottoms

Can anyone hear that sound? It is the sound of toilet bowl flushing.

Indian stock market is going down the toilet ... where it belongs.



Tuesday, July 23, 2013

One Sick Pup (QQQ)

Watch 74.50 area (QQQ)s action, it is "trying" to get above it after (AAPL) "better than worst lowered pitiful estimates, but we expect new exciting product to be out soon ... iDownTheToilet"




On a different subject - I am VERY tempted to reshort /YG @1350sh ... downside is not big, but the shot is clean

On the second thought, when I looked at the chart ...1390 more likely



if I could redo things

Then instead of being inpatient first and stubborn after, I would have opened 100% net short position RIGHT NOW RIGHT HERE.

I am in yet another plane (friend of mine offered flight lessons in exchange for market lessons - silly him, and since I was in a desperate need to finally get my night time license - it seamed to be a good idea, as well as get away from charts for few hours/days.

And - if someone is looking for sector shorts - keep an eye on ITB ETF - it is forming what is called picture perfect. Entry should be slightly higher or on the break of support.

Trade well

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Saturday, July 20, 2013






Came back from my favorite place Thursday night , still on the jet lag ( I go there when I need easy money – guess what country it is? Below is a hint)




Anyhow - Revenons à nos moutons.



First thing first – as you know I am 100% net short (except for long crude oil) and color and % of that short position starting to make me VERY uncomfortable and depending on Monday’s / Tuesday’s close I might either CLOSE SHORT INDEX/ULTRA ETFs POSIIONS and take losses equal to about 7% on the trade (before adding in gains from (UCO) long position I “luckily” entered right at the bottom which puts me well in the green, but it is no excuse for a bad trading on SPX and I traded horribly last 10 days – I traded what I wanted to see not what I SAW – it happens to me once in  while – I cross the line between trader and gambler … ouch! ). What I did wrong was entering big short position on July 8th WHILE TDSetup Sell was STILL in progress. (around 1640sh SPX). Then I pressed with /ES short around 1568 … All while talking about similarities with March-May topping patter for wave 5 back in 2011!

The rest .. is still not history.



Enough self analyzing …

I am going to sum the content of this post up in one phrase (for people suffering from ADHD like yours truly):




Stop shouting – there is nothing I did not say before, please look at the page “Big Picture” ( menu at the top of the site) – for directionally challenged – here is the LINK

And for lazy ones who hate to follow links – below is the chart from that page.

As you can see – there are two alternate scenarios. Both include correction before move higher … and since market is best in tricking everyone – we sure might presume there is going to be no correction. I just reminded myself joke about one handed economists.


Oh well – black is white, white is black … time for me to learn from the best to be as vague as possible





Why I am sure that it is NOT a


rinse and repeat of 2000 or 2007?

Because as oppose to those tops TD Risk Level on monthly charts is being penetrated on the very next month TD Setup Sell was completed.

Bubbles across all assets classes were LEVERAGE BUBBLES.


The ONLY thing I was (and STILL ) not sure is IF market will produce any meaningful correction BEFORE skyrocketing (remember – long term bottoms put in place when EVRYTHING IS WORST THAN EVER …. like now ) – I still, based on TAs believe – it WILL have corrective A-B-C   DWave down  that will take DOW to at least around 1400.


In order for NEXT LEG OF BULL MARKET to surge up – weak hands MUST BE SHAKEN OFF.



That being said (WHY I needed to make this point? Because there are a lot of “actions junkies” who try to catch any inconsistencies in my views and timeframes they use are truly idiotic … like “10 days ago you said market is going down”)

To make a VALID argument once has to be


1. Use proper time frame such as “long”, “medium”,”short” terms

2. Understand “What is the magnitude of move expected”

3. Not to take statements out of content



Embrace yourselves – there will be quite a few charts. All of them monthly, except for the very last one.





The first ( as “The Worst” ) is (XLF)

With all the money for nothing and out of jail tickets for free none can put that Humphrey Dumphrey together … not yet at least. Though it is trying it is trying.



Next one is Copper Futures (/HG) – it looks like it is about to collapse and that confirms the dismay of homebuilders stocks ( ad those are not done going down )



What you will see in the next charts you would think contradicts to /HG chart (IF it will go down ) and you will ask: “Copper collapse precluded market collapse in 2007 – would not the same happen again?”


I believe the answer would be “no” – history does not repeat – housing is inflated by easy money, but it is not qualified as “bubble” now IMHO.



Again – the next on the order of sickness – Dow Industrial Avg.


It is hitting long term trendline and in need of letting the steam out.



S&P100 already broke out, but again – slight correction is much needed.



Russell 2000 already broke out from a very bullish long term pattern



S&P500 – broke out - check



Nasdaq Composite – another fallen out of grace – but in context of the “recent market” – broke out.




Lot of traders talk about VIX in low teens – means squawk really on a long enough timeframe – all it is – people are contempt with what is going on – and people can be wrong for a VERY VERY VERY long time. And Americans can be contempt forever – while talking about things they don’t like and doing nothing about it.



Now – for the VERY SHORT TERM – I think VIX is about to spike again – perfect place – right off TDST line – then again – if not – I am out of short based on the next 2 days’ action.


2013-07-20_1510 ANd SPX is in my target yellow area (would not it be smart of me just WAIT for it to get there without actually BEEN SHORT already?!





Stay tuned…


And keep in mind – market is breaking into no man's land – trading will become much more difficult.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Just one chart (SPX) or WILL it break 1700?

I will not be talking about new highs, I will just mention 1700 on (SPX) viewed as a "done deal", but market does what it does best - tricks everyone into thinking that individual is smarter than the market. So - IF, and I say "IF" market is ready to correct for real (not measly deceiving no more existing what thought to be as A down wave (was not it amazing how the MOMENT conditions for A were satisfied - bounce started? Note to myself - next time treat it as prelude to bear trap and new highs - and, for G-gs sake - be patient when running in front of the freight train) - so if market is to correct for "real" - tomorrow is the best day to start it.

Whole numbers tend to fail after idea fixe been realized, so I think even after GOOG miss - on (SPX) we might see momentary touch of 1700 and then slide will start.

Slowly at first, but predictably accelerating in the process.

Well, my money is where my mouth is, at this moment I do not like that taste - feels like blood ( I started to rebuild short position when "wave B" which is no more, but that lured me into short on July 5 Friday and I have been trading around it adding shorts as market went higher - truth to be said - if not my UCO long position from June 25th - I would not be so comfortable numb. But I believe (otherwise why would I be still short) that my patience will repay in spades and since I kept adding long term out of money puts when VIX was so low and puts had practically no delta - I might just hit it big again)


Anyhow - if you will take a look at the charts posted on July 8th - my price targets have been reached across the board - see yellow squares and it is time to start making money on the short side.

And this chart shows that exact AB-CD completed as well as TDSequential Countdown completed recently and since there was TDSetup Sell in progress I did not care too much for that, but today TDSetup Sell printed 9 ( please note - on the 2 days chart)



P.S. I am thinking about reopening short position in /YG if spot moves closer to 1300 tomorrow morning


UPDATE:   I took a better look at gold and silver ... well, my downside target for gold was around 1100, I covered short /YG at 1200sh ... the problem is I used GLD as a proxy and looking at it right now - I will NOT go short neither gold, nor silver.

Even more (I am not ashamed to reverse my opinion - I am here not to be right, I am here to make myself money ... well if any of the readers will learn something or opposite - will learn not to do what I do - it is a bonus ) - so, I might even go long /YG and most definitely I will buy physical gold from Provident Metals (my dealer of choice) to replenish my position which I sold out (yes - to the same provident Metals on the very not good terms, but better than pawn shop indeed) back in  the fall of 2012 (yeah, I know, it is insanely long time to be short something, but I found that much better profits are made when you "stay with the trend - jeez - I have evolved from active almost/sometimes day trader to someone who appreciate time and as a bonus makes more money with less stress ))

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Grand scheme of (SPX) wave 5 life

(SPX) weekly chart with daily D-Wave annotations



(SPX) daily chart – self explanatory



Small cap Russell 2000 (RUT) Monthly


And daily



And … regarding Zimmerman so called “case” – all you racial pimps go screw yourselves – Justice should be color blind by definition – it IS BLINDFOLDED.



Friday, July 12, 2013

Widows Maker #2 A.K.A. natural gas (/NG) (UNG)

Update to


Widows Maker A.K.A. natural gas (/NG) (UNG)


Firstly – I have NO position in Nat Gas – I had my share of losses because of being right at the wrong time or right at the right time and stopped out with insane spikes nat gas is famous for.

That being said – IF I wanted to trade it I would wait to go long (my long term bias is long) at the lower extension of the channel on the chart –that is where lower channel’s line and weekly TDST meet, as well as monthly Person pivots for August




Thursday, July 11, 2013

Am I disappointed?

Hell YES!

With the market action?

Hell NO! (Of course I have no nice words for Ber-na-ke, but here is what he does - makes his criminal Wall St friends rich - money has to come out of somewhere other then his a....   well ...)

With myself.  Covered too late - not on Monday 2 weeks ago, but few days later even though I have a rule to put stops (at least mental stops) in place when new wave is about to "print" (that is what I call "satisfy minimum requirements for been put on the chart), and wave B (which is of course no more after today's new highs) AND TDST support line right there - one that beautiful Monday 2+ weeks ago.

Reshorted way too soon, started to add to the losing trade, and, most importantly - did not pay attention to how the wave 5 was lined up to the candles - not clean enough)

You will understand what I am talking about when you will see how extended wave 5 sticks to a lot of candles now.

I am still short, I even pressed /ES short in addition to SPXU, SPXS and some SPY Aug157P

I really like it here, especially on (XLF)

It might not go down tomorrow, but I think next week will reward my patience ( do want to insult myself and call it stu.... silliness )





larger chart


Tuesday, July 09, 2013

How did THAT happen?


"Patriotism is the virtue of the vicious"
Oscar Wilde

Don't get me wrong...

I am in no way a perpetual Bear, more likely I am a perpetual compulsive Bull who, during many years of successful and may be even many more years of "not-so-successful" trading learned to be REALISTIC. (it helps a lot that I came to United States from the country where "propaganda" was substitute for economy, it helps not to wear "pink glasses" all the time, but to soberly see reality)
[this is as much as this post has anything to do with the stock market - even if it had anything to do with it till this point - you better stop reading now]

Yes, America is still one of the greatest countries in the world and No, is has not been "the greatest" for a long time now.

Yes, America gave refuge to countless immigrants from all around the world, BUT in recent years if you look at official statistics, you will be unpleasantly surprised that "demographic" of this, once world wide Exodus, totally changed in a recent years, countries which fueled economic expansion of America by providing educated and willing labor force are now buying America and, once poverty stricken citizens of those countries, now "coming to America" as tourists, buying all they see (and, you...yes - YOU, stop diluting yourself attempting to attribute that phenomena to the "weak dollar" and definitely stop been HAPPY about "retail sales numbers") and, when asked: "Would you like to stay in USA?" - these, once anxious potential immigrants just impolitely laugh right into your blinders covered face.

We don't have manufacturing economy since 70th, those who say otherwise use the same numbered companies over and over again and that argument has really sour taste for a long time now. More realistic and, in a way, "economically patriotic" of us stopped paying attention to "Made in America" label - we are tired of trying to figure out - was it a paper printed in America or a lead in that toy came from US? And it does not matter that "that thing" is "cheaper" than similar one REALLY made in America, we are at the point we don't have money for either.

We continue losing "intellectual economy" due to the, first, "economically viable" hiring of H1 Visa holders instead of Citizens of this country or New Citizens who came here to STAY (and not to just make a handful of money and then go back to the home country and be a "King") and NO, there was NO shortage in "that" field, whatever that field was they got H1's for.
It worsened with Internet revolution and outsourcing is the name of the game for a long time now - Brazil, Russia, China, India - you name the country - any country but America, makes money on American business (and just turn TV off when yet another "Pimp" will tell you that "this is good for America and Americans" and "the only illegal immigration that poses problem for Americans is from Mexico")

We became afraid, tired and afraid - how and when did that happen?
Afraid of getting sick and not being able to answer "How are you going to pay?" question through the maze of pain and blood.
Afraid of losing our jobs and viewing "12 hours expected workday" as the only way to keep it.
Afraid of spending more time with our children at expense of carrier (that is what we think it is instead of “slavery”) and then afraid of phone calls from school - it just might be that "Your kid was caught at the school yard selling drugs" call - how could that happen - we worked so hard to keep them away from that.

Afraid of getting older (in spite of being forced to watch "Ridiculously Happy Faced Viagra/Rogain/Prozak stuffed Baby Boomers" on financial companies commercials) - "Pink Haired Old Ladies" have not been anywhere in sight for many years, instead we spending our time in supermarkets waiting in register line for "That old fella to finish counting his pennies".


We changed a lot – instead of helping someone who slipped and fell to get up – we filming them with iPhones.

We don't even read that Social Security Statement anymore: "You might expect to receive $2,900 per month when you retire in yet another 20 years, it will pay for as much as $290 today and we still do not guarantee that you WILL get it". We hope that Social Security will miraculously change one day and delightfully afraid of proposals "Here is a part of what is left from your money, we were unable to handle it properly, take it and lose the rest in the Stock Market" - average American is sure to have better intellectual ability and time resources to beat the stock market than huge financial companies popping out of business at the ridiculously growing rate.

When did we became afraid of caring, how did it happen that it became exclusive business of "non for profit" milky schemes and our "four legged friends" are our best and ONLY friends?

When and why did we reach that threshold between "work to live" as oppose to "live to work"? How is that possible in prosperous society that election campaign targets people "who have more and more difficult time SURVIVING" and that class of people includes now once quite satisfied middle class?
And why do we still indulge ourselves caring for Warren Buffet's billions he managed to keep?
Yes, Americans (as people) are one of the the greatest nations of the world, its unmatched optimism helped to build what America as a country may still be proud of, but the sooner we will accept that with advent of Global Economy there will be NO "THE GREATEST COUNTRY", the sooner "THEY" will stop attempts to diverge OUR attention to "new external enemy" and, instead, will start looking at "enemy within". When and IF that happen then we will start regaining what we as a nation were once proud of.
I do not like politics and politicians, I have never been a member of ANY official party (Socialist, Republican, Communist, Democratic or Woo-Doo), I hate to waste my time and place on my site on what might be viewed as political point of view, but I am gradually losing hope that the country I've come to love for the 20 years since I denounced citizenship to my home country will ever start listening to its own citizens again and, the only "political party" I am proud to be a member of, party of "Common Sense and Decency", forever lost its battle...
[author is not responsible for content below]



P.S. Now...serious question: Where did the "dollar menu" go? Will it come back with resurrection of $3 bill?



We need to be careful what we wish for

“the sooner "THEY" will stop attempts to diverge OUR attention to "new external enemy" and, instead, will start looking at "enemy within". “

“they” indeed did just that – as Snowden revealed – Americans are now ALL the ENEMIES of the STATE



P.P.S.  Guess WHEN it was written? Someone said in comments: “Things will improve eventually”




Note to myself


Time to drive to the airport – friend’s wedding in Pittsburg.See you next week most likely.

“Dolla” anyone? (/DX) (UUP)

Track record on dollar calls


Guess what?


Is anyone paying attention to the dollar?


Has anyone understand the implications of breaking such a long term trendline?


Does anyone knows what those red numbers mean?


Watching this channel?


Coincidence with taper?




Monday, July 08, 2013

July 8th (SPX) closing thoughts

1. Closed at 62% 5/22 to 6/24 Fibs

2. Closed right at the “red” trendline through closing prices at highest close on May 21st and June 18th

3. Countdown 13 Sell confirmed by bar 13 poking above closing of bar 8 on 6/10

4. TD Sell is 8 – tomorrow’s close might be as low as 1614.08 (not that it “will be”) for Sell Setup to stay.

5. I am about to give up on my shorts – that is one of the best sell indicators I know.

6. Worst of all - I am out of my favorite cognac





Wallfly  • 6 hours ago

We have also

1. Closed the gap.

2. Kissed back the long term trend line just broken.

3. Completed a nice Seq 13 on the 2 hr.(which I follow closely).

4. Completed 8 up bars on the Daily to presumably authenticate Wave 2. (Demark's D Wave)

5. etc. -- So go down already! :))



#N. Asia is bloody red


We going to the Moon!!!

Sunday, July 07, 2013

Widows Maker A.K.A. natural gas (/NG) (UNG)

That weekly (/NG) chart speaks for itself – we might have next leg up starting now




Thursday, July 04, 2013

Stop whining biyatches – it is a Cool World!

Ever since the beginning of times there were never happy people.

The sole reason of their existence seemed to be one of criticizing everything left and right, all that existed forever and ever and was secret to none and world did not end and was not going to, nor was going to change because that was the very human nature and how it works.

What am I mumbling about?

Two things.

First – Snowden, who I am really bored with and even lost any compassion to his destiny which is not good mind me saying it. He started out as an All American Hero (we do tend to abuse this word, every firefighter is a “hero’ instead of doing their jobs and getting paid for – none force them to do so and death is attached benefit to that job) letting Americans know that they are not safe in their own houses from total surveillance by powers to be.

Big freaking news, but since there are more idiots, than normal people (notice – I am not even using word “smart” – because only idiots might believe in privacy in this day and age especially from the moment they put ANYTHING in the “electronic pipe” be that email or phone conversation). Then there was some long and boring appeal to The Constitution, Bill of Rights ( which are just “privileges” and can be suspended by owners of this country at any time and majority of people would not even notice that) – all of which I still find compelling, but boring.


But he ended as a spoiled uneducated brat by criticizing what always took place since there were not even men yet – spying and watching of the competing species – was it done to ambush them and eat them or to gain territorial advantage or just because they were of the different fur color and “could not be trusted”. He did not like one country spying on another. Oh, pardon me – I hoped we finally got normal person, but obviously that guy just missed few sessions with his shrink and could not handle what is curved in the stone – that the world is not perfect.

I think it is time for him to end that psychotic episode, go home and face the music – at least he will not have to pay his medical bills ever.



Then there is a second group of never happy people. Bears (as market bears)

Everything is so dramatic, so extreme, so “forever”, so “at last”.

Market will not correct, but crash. QE does what never been done to the market.

Interest rates are going to the Moon (yeah, 10 years not went to 2.5% – that is to the Moon…. against historical at least 4.% and beside, it was going down for many many years even before crisis of 2007. And on and on and on … so boring and quite stupid to tell you the truth.

And market meanwhile keeps climbing up, for nearly 80 years, in a very steady pace, correcting when it runs ahead of itself, spiking when another “new reality” comes into the play, but KEEPS GOING UP. Yes it is due to QEs, yes it is due to inflation, yes it is due to rubbing the rest of the world, our own middle class …yes yes yes…

And it keeps going up.

I wish we were as small and unimportant as Iceland or some banana republic default of which would not even be noticed by the rest of the world, but history taught us that crisis that spilled over the world back in 30th after Weimar Republic became history brought to the power the worst political entity – Fascism and I am glad that we learned from that (And I believe that is a main lesson Bernanke learned – not to repeat THAT past … damn – I just made a complement to Bernanke???)

SO, how about stop whining that game is rigged – it IS indeed and just play the game or go the hell away and not to sidetrack people who want to make money and know that world cannot be changed.


Enjoy the chart and fatburgers or the clip that follows – whatever your choice of poison is




Since we are living in imaginary financial world courtesy of Federal Bank and Central planners I thought it would be appropriate to entertain gang with this clip if we can do ‘nottin about it – we might as well enjoy it.



Update Jul 5th 10AM


ANY GREEN close today will print B wave (this is REAL TIME – wave is not there to stay per se – GREEN CLOSE NEEDED! )



Down the (SPX) memory lane

Was going through my old charts/posts and found one back from March 2010 … yes – more than 3 years ago.


I am reposting it below (you will understand why) and conclude with something for the male part of the readers of this site


THIS IS DATED BACK TO MARCH 2010 ! Looks like I was just slightly off on the dates, but damn close on the numbers (patting myself on the back – who said you cannot make money in the stock market)


Current D-Wave Count

February 8th, 2010
I will provide ongoing update to this scenario as needed

March 11th, 2010




Wednesday, July 03, 2013

Are you not scared of the chart

at the bottom of this post? Not if you are long crude based on this


Thursday, June 27, 2013

The fight for oil is coming?


96.77 closing price as of June 27th and as of right now it is 101.50 we are almost 5% up…wait – UCO was the proposed long trade – UP 10% in few days!






Rick Santelli’s rant on CNBC


watch it at about 1minute 40 seconds into the clip