Monday, November 30, 2009
Lickety Slick
As mentioned yesterday, RCB convenes U.S. time tonight at I "think" 10:30 PM EST (will check on that later,) and the high probability is for them to once again increase rates, but the surprise will be for them to leave them alone. Either way we could see some rumble in the Forex jungle on that announcement and we'll be watching how it moves the dollar. Tomorrow's economic calendar includes: Before the bell- ICSC- Goldman Store Sales and the Redbook. Motor Vehicle Sales are tomorrow, but I do not have the time of the announcement. Also tomorrow at 10:00 AM - ISM Mfg. Index, Construction Spending and Pending Homes Sales. Charles Plosser speaks at 12:20.
Retail Holders are not looking too spiffy after Black Friday numbers rolled in, and I wanted to share a few charts on the oil sector for those who trade this up and down. I enjoyed a very good webinar last evening with another TTW trader and the chart on oil and the dollar was brought into focus, and I do believe it's worth watching for not only oil traders, but general trading. It appears we've got some divergence happening there. Keep your peepers on that OVX as well, as it needs to hold support if you're shorting oil. Hat tip to Crowe for reminding us on OIH and that lovely pattern on the chart. Good trading into the afternoon!
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Has the Fuse Been Lit?
... or was this specifically timed? That's the $64 question, and I don't think we'll really catch the bulk of the importance of this until we see the tape action tonight and tomorrow. The late tape sell-off on Friday was “interesting,” and may set a new tone going into the end of the year. What if there is no Santa Claus Rally this year? Isn’t everyone expecting one? Just sayin’…. Take your kid to work day is over now, you can stick a fork in Black Friday retail faux numbers, and now it's time to see where the rubber will meet the real road. Damage control is already happening on the Dubai issue, and we have a huge week in economic news ahead. Noteworthy on the Dubai issue is that RBC and USBS have hefty stakes involved, so how this pans out will be interesting, to say the least, and how this will play out for further risk appetite going forward.
While all eyes are finished with Dancing With the Stars and are now wondering if Tiger's wife went postal on him, we'll be watching several important events: RBA convenes on December 1st (November 30th for U.S.) for a possible rate hike (or not,) the ECB will also be meeting Thursday for a rate decision, and to top it off the U.S. has a myriad of important news including the all important November UE numbers on Friday. So, between important moves in Forex as well as equities, it's time to man the torpedoes. Tomorrow kicks off with Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM.
We have a pretty good consensus amongst our various TA methods that we'll see an important pivot move this week, and I have to say, I'm really excited to watch this unfold for this group. Beyond some charts I wanted to share, there are a few web links worth noting for further TA possibilities. As some of you probably already know, one of our best chartists, Joe8888 also works closely with Jeff Cooper, and Cooper had an extensive article on pivots, etc. that you might enjoy reading through, including his Wheel of Price and Time. I also took a look at the State Street Investor Confidence chart, and I think it's really worth your look. DDT mentioned the insider selling on GS over the weekend, and here is a chart view of overall insider selling. Yes, we use TA, but we follow the money, and once again, my graph on Long-term Money Flows showed further moves out of domestic equities for the week of November 18th. So good trading to us all this week, and here are several charts of various things I found interesting, and hope you will too if you've stayed awake this long to read through my diatribe. See you all later tonight as we watch the futures open and huddle for some trades.
And finally, a look at GS through the Ichimoku lens:
11/30/2009
Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection
Low
High
/ES
1056.75
1100
SPX
1076.75
1098.48
/NQ
1703.75
1778.25
NDX
1753.83
1790.89
/DX
74.990
75.695
Friday, November 27, 2009
(GS) “People” cashing in
Evans, 52, sold 70,000 shares at prices ranging from $170.98 to $173.47 on Nov. 23 and Nov. 24, according to the filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
That is understood and timing is indeed admirable – after all (GS) executives are not getting paid our big bucks for nothing, really glad to read that rats are selling into “endless prosperity rally” – talk about topside distribution during last 2 months. I wonder – if not for special agreement with Warren all American Buffet – would any of them still hold shares of their company?
Dubai default news conveniently broke out after (GS) people sold some shares…
All of course purely coincidental, no pun intended. I wish I was as good at identifying right time to run from the ship as they are…no pun intended…but I don’t know “their people”…well enough.
The answer I’d like to know: “Where did I see him before?”
Other than that today was pretty dull with a lot of trading opportunities missed (at least by yours truly), one of such being /NG (Natural Gas) long trade…which I completely..cannot say “overlooked”, but…”slept through” may be?
See you all Monday (yeah..right – YOU are addicts – you’ll be here Sunday night! And..according to site counter – some of you never leave!)
Oh and by the way – for those of you who complained that “someone” was bidding market up with futures pre open – be thankful – if THEY would not be able to pump it up – WE would face “RULE 48” right this morning. It is good to be a bulltard – they really take good care of sheeple’s mentality…
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Think positive…
Let just turn on CNBC, listen to Steve LiesMan and Chinese Laughing Girl AKA Melissa “Have no clue” or to Mr President Obama (he cannot be lying, right?) or to Benny Ber-Na-Nke (translated from now dead language it means either
1. Don’t know shit
or
2. Screw all of you – I am allset already
or
3. I cannot be so dumb to really believe all the crap that coming out of my mouth
Choices for stupid/lying/crappy infotainment are countless – too bad I disconnected cable long time ago – could not stand newly implemented “in the movie commercials” AKA “stupid huge stripes at the bottom, top and across” – I am paying and getting screwed? Nuh…not with cable IdioTV.
Now that we all feel better and may be we’ll have more wooden nickels AKA American Soft Two Ply Dollas – we can afford more Dollas at multi year lows, just for fun, we not going to go out and buy things for that – we might kill WalMart Clerk on the way to saving $5 at 3AM on Black Friday (WhoTF is waking up at 3AM to buy that garbage?)
Let just be happy and not to worry just like those sweet doggies at that picture, smartest of us may assume that position – at least it will not hurt as much as if we resisted.
Now, speaking of Two Ply Dolla’ – no matter how much I want to bash it – to be fair, 74.10 is a TD Weekly Risk Level and, at least for my trading style, represents another good risk/reward long trade with clear tight stop.
Have a great jobless Thanksgiving, enjoy your family (“Family Comes First” – you may want to skip 2 minutes if you are not the patient type) and I wish I had a good news for you, but all I can say is: “Enjoy the ride now – the destination will be much worse”
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Fowl Tape?
Well... as we all sit here wondering what's going to happen next, I thought it might be a good time to review our volatility charts now that the fear factor seems to be missing in action completely. I like that! No fear, eh? Also noted is this lousy volume issue pre-holiday, but to not expect that is to think there is a Santa Claus too. I am not convinced we wouldn't have seen an anticipated pullback had we had normal volume, so it might be Monday before we see anything moving beyond a tight range. In any event, I would be more than happy to be surprised going into the close today and be told I was way off base. Surprise me, market, will you?
Also, of note... GS, my personal favorite Turkey is trading below support so far, maybe there is a Santa Claus afterall.
If I don't say it enough, I really mean it when I say thank you everybody for every single contribution you make each day. These are the times that try men's (and women's) souls, who have half a brain and can see through the smoke and mirrors. While we have 43% of food stamp recipients employed, absolute nonsensical cherry-picked economic data coming at us every day, we keep hanging in here doing our trading thing. So... kudos to all of us! I am thankful for this blog and for all of my trading buddies this Thanksgiving, I adore all of you more than words can say. Have a safe and restful holiday, and a virtual toast to us all! I may or may not be trading on Friday with you, as I'll be in a DC overdosing on tryptophan induced meals, but I'll try to sneak off to a corner with my laptop and check in. ~Keirsten P.S. for you turkey warriors, observe the video below, and don't try this at home!
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
When the smoke clears?
Caught myself on very unsetting thought – for over 2 months I’ve been wasting time, energy and money trying to catch a major move, and, in fact, even manor ones, even those that I did manage to capitalize on – did not worth time spent and mental energy drained.
Topping or basing – it does not matter, since mid September SPX is up stunning 55 points – slightly more than 5.5% – under traditional 7-8% stop any self respecting trend trader will have in place.
Speaking of individual stocks – it has been even more obvious monkey business – look at all short portfolio “opened” on September 14th – as of today’s close it is down whapping
-0.56% !
Counting that it includes few stocks which would have been stopped out long time ago (marked with blue arrow, even based on 10% stop) and in this case, that all short portfolio would be at about 5% gain while $SPX is up 5.5%!
WHY ARE WE RACING OURSELVES TO DEATH TRYING TO FIND THAT ILLUSIVE INEXISTING TRADE???
This is one of the very few real advantages of retail trader – having luxury not to trade when we don’t have to or there is nothing to trade!
Why do we keep running after these small bits and pieces and by the time next big trade will reveal itself we are totally exhausted – mentally and monetary?
What is wrong with us?
How did we know that there was going to be no “strong directional trade”?
Too many people were waiting for it, market gurus were calling for it, common sense traders were arguing it was unavoidable (what market has to do with “common sense”?) and, most importantly – market is the very last “sealed door” separating existing political system from anger of awakening mob – and it will not be pretty, not this time, so – who would dig the pit for themselves letting market down sharply or consistently? Forget the dollar - “they” already bought villas in Paraguay and moved gold in safe places, screw the dollar. (not even speaking of monthly SPX TDSetup counts due to complete in January)
End of rant.
Chart of $VIX – right at support, this week marks possible 13 of buy countdown.
Few observations
New intraday high on (SPY) yesterday was rejected, same for (DIA) – both closed below prior high close, (QQQQ) continues to lag, none of above 3 reset in progress TDSetup Buy counts, all at important trendlines, all “somebody” are on vacation already (I spent day in New York City bar hopping with ole’ friends of mine…those who still has not died from excessive drinking or other not so natural reasons :)
I think market will be going lower till the end of November at least and I’ll take it from there…
Am I trying to call direction again???
11/25/2009
Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection
Low
High
/ES
1093.25
1105.25
SPX
1096.68
1106.61
/NQ
1772
1790.25
NDX
1773.14
1789.22
/DX
74.875
75.335
Quite a day (morning) tomorrow…do we really care? We decided that market will go down tomorrow – did not we?
Gold Digger
Tuesday mid-session finds most of us grumbling about this chop, chop, fizz, fizz tape, and there's really not much to say, as we all expected as much before the Thanksgiving holiday here in the U.S. All eyes have been on gold for several weeks now, and gold is only slightly up so far today, but rather than focus on that chart, I'm sharing a chart on GDX, as we may have a potential trade there is if stays true to form and plays within the channel. Oil is also showing some interesting possibilities here, so keep an eye on that chart as well. On the bullish side, the upside target is rather lovely, to say the least, but with inventory report coming out tomorrow, that pattern is tracking the lower channel support and it could still go either way. DDT asked to be reminded to share some DM charts on some Chinese stocks, so while we wait for those, here are the most recent charts on SSEC and HSI, but these are prior to last night's action, where SSEC took a -3.45% haircut, HSI correcting -1.53. Good trading to you into the afternoon session. The treasury auction announcement is at 1:00 PM EST, followed by FOMC note release at 2:00 PM. Tomorrow's economic calendar includes: 8:30 AM Durable Goods, Personal Income and Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment - 9:55, New Home Sales - 10:00, Petroleum Status - 10:30, Nat Gas Status - 12:00 and 7 year Note Auction - 1:00 PM.
Groundhog Day or How I spent my last Thanksgiving...
Monday, November 23, 2009
Some days are more boring than others
Yes, I know I know – we don’t trade for excitement, we trade for bread (Remember “Knish” from “Rounders”?)
But, no matter what – today was as boring as it gets – with mandatory Monday gap up on yet another Bull[t]urd’s currency bashing in form of proposing of endless MBS buying in “prospering” economy (WhoTF is still listening those MoFo who cannot even lie convincingly?)
Anyhow, just wanted to post few charts to demonstrate that longer term bearish picture has not changed…yet…
weekly ($SPX) holding risk zone of last TDSequential Sell 13
Daily ($SPX) under w3/wC target of 1113-1115, under current risk level around 1112, RSI under 60 in spite of up day
Lower timeframes do not give too many keys except for consolidation after buy setup on 15 min (weakness into close)
But here is the question – is this volume attributed to bottoming process OR issuance of gazillion shares by UUP and therefore buying futures contracts to back it up?
11/24/2009
Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection
Low
High
/ES
1097
1118.50
SPX
1100.55
1118.07
/NQ
1777.25
1816.50
NDX
1787.25
1806.24
/DX
74.735
75.545
Oh…and I just become Bob Prechter’s friend…not really – just an affiliate (that was easy) and they are giving away Fibonacci E-Book http://tinyurl.com/yhftjpz
Monday Revives the $VOMINX
Douala found this video, enjoy!
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Bits and pieces – no reason…
Why should I trade one tyrant three thousand miles away for three thousand tyrants one mile away? An elected legislature can trample a man's rights as easily as a king can.
What would you do if they destroyed your home, threatened your family. Where would you draw the line?
Although the constitution **** was never officially repealed, the legal measures taken by the **** government in February and March ****, commonly known as ***** ("coordination") meant that the government could legislate contrary to the constitution. The constitution became irrelevant, therefore **** is usually seen as the end of the **** Republic and the beginning of *****.
I love that propaganda cartoon, modern crap is not that convincing.
“Cold War cartoon aimed at American workers with the objective of convincing them of their good fortune.”
Let me translate what they say in this timeless piece: “ We are number one and you are number one, because number 2 and number 3 and number 25 and number 174 are all devastated after the war and we will call ourselves number one even thou there is none else to step up to the plate and beside – we got all their gold now”
OY…
Now – what we started from – without omissions:
Although the constitution of 1919 was never officially repealed, the legal measures taken by the Nazi government in February and March 1933, commonly known as Gleichschaltung ("coordination") meant that the government could legislate contrary to the constitution. The constitution became irrelevant, therefore 1933 is usually seen as the end of the Weimar Republic and the beginning of Hitler's "Third Reich".
Back to ongoing recession…
So, how do we fight recession?
Since I am not a financial advisor I can only give you an advise of a common sense:
Stop buying cereals – why would you pay $5 for the box of “nothing with some sugar” which cost 5c to make?
On a positive note – you can use money you saved to order customized M&Ms at ****.com with touchy sign “SUCK MY M&M”
Can you just imagine how they rape you on the price of the carpet itself if they promise to do full house install for $35???
Now back to market talk… on the second thought – forget market tonight.
Have some fun (complements of Rhae and Karl Denninger)
Friday, November 20, 2009
Weekend at DDT's
Edit to add this chart from Humble Student:
"
Saturday Edit: Chart on INDU and I updated the data on my Long-term Mutual Fund Money Flow graph.
Balancing Act
I'm trading my own accounts like a bee in a hive today, so I'm sharing charts from Alpha and Zig Zag, with basically the same idea in mind. The regular game for the last several months also includes moving up and around those EMAs as far as I can see, with a lot of push/pull nearby. Monday's economic news is Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM EST and a treasury auction.
Good trading going into the afternoon session! A little something different that was shared with me by Shadow Trader for your listening pleasure below. Enjoy!
Alpha's EW
Zig Zag's SPX
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Wind of Change?
11/20/2009
Futures approx. BO
Daily Range Projection
Low
High
/ES
1079
1101.50
SPX
1082.63
1100.67
/NQ
1743
1785.25
NDX
1753.21
1781.10
/DX
75.298
75.743
Little did we know – that was not the change that HAD TO BE DONE…