Monday, November 30, 2009

Lickety Slick

Monday finds us basically range bound again, but not so fast…. there is something different about this Monday tape, and that is: we’ve seen multiple green Mondays, and this has typically been a very good trending day, but not true today. So.. maybe we’re seeing the winds of change.

As mentioned yesterday, RCB convenes U.S. time tonight at I "think" 10:30 PM EST (will check on that later,) and the high probability is for them to once again increase rates, but the surprise will be for them to leave them alone. Either way we could see some rumble in the Forex jungle on that announcement and we'll be watching how it moves the dollar. Tomorrow's economic calendar includes: Before the bell- ICSC- Goldman Store Sales and the Redbook. Motor Vehicle Sales are tomorrow, but I do not have the time of the announcement. Also tomorrow at 10:00 AM - ISM Mfg. Index, Construction Spending and Pending Homes Sales. Charles Plosser speaks at 12:20.

Retail Holders are not looking too spiffy after Black Friday numbers rolled in, and I wanted to share a few charts on the oil sector for those who trade this up and down. I enjoyed a very good webinar last evening with another TTW trader and the chart on oil and the dollar was brought into focus, and I do believe it's worth watching for not only oil traders, but general trading. It appears we've got some divergence happening there. Keep your peepers on that OVX as well, as it needs to hold support if you're shorting oil. Hat tip to Crowe for reminding us on OIH and that lovely pattern on the chart. Good trading into the afternoon!
































Sunday, November 29, 2009

Has the Fuse Been Lit?


... or was this specifically timed? That's the $64 question, and I don't think we'll really catch the bulk of the importance of this until we see the tape action tonight and tomorrow. The late tape sell-off on Friday was “interesting,” and may set a new tone going into the end of the year.  What if there is no Santa Claus Rally this year?  Isn’t everyone expecting one? Just sayin’….  Take your kid to work day is over now, you can stick a fork in Black Friday retail faux numbers, and now it's time to see where the rubber will meet the real road. Damage control is already happening on the Dubai issue, and we have a huge week in economic news ahead. Noteworthy on the Dubai issue is that RBC and USBS have hefty stakes involved, so how this pans out will be interesting, to say the least, and how this will play out for further risk appetite going forward. 


While all eyes are finished with Dancing With the Stars and are now wondering if Tiger's wife went postal on him, we'll be watching several important events: RBA convenes on December 1st (November 30th for U.S.) for a possible rate hike (or not,) the ECB will also be meeting Thursday for a rate decision, and to top it off the U.S. has a myriad of important news including the all important November UE numbers on Friday. So, between important moves in Forex as well as equities, it's time to man the torpedoes. Tomorrow kicks off with Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM.

We have a pretty good consensus amongst our various TA methods that we'll see an important pivot move this week, and I have to say, I'm really excited to watch this unfold for this group. Beyond some charts I wanted to share, there are a few web links worth noting for further TA possibilities. As some of you probably already know, one of our best chartists, Joe8888 also works closely with Jeff Cooper, and Cooper had an extensive article on pivots, etc. that you might enjoy reading through, including his Wheel of Price and Time. I also took a look at the State Street Investor Confidence chart, and I think it's really worth your look. DDT mentioned the insider selling on GS over the weekend, and here is a chart view of overall insider selling. Yes, we use TA, but we follow the money, and once again, my graph on Long-term Money Flows showed further moves out of domestic equities for the week of November 18th. So good trading to us all this week, and here are several charts of various things I found interesting, and hope you will too if you've stayed awake this long to read through my diatribe.  See you all later tonight as we watch the futures open and huddle for some trades. 

IWM INDU
UUP USD
FXA1 TRAN
BDI_SSEC IYR
XOM NYUPV


And finally, a look at GS through the Ichimoku lens:

GS

 

 11/30/2009

Futures approx. BO

 

 

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1056.75

1100

SPX

1076.75

1098.48

/NQ

1703.75

1778.25

NDX

1753.83

1790.89

/DX

74.990

75.695

Friday, November 27, 2009

(GS) “People” cashing in

image Goldman Sachs’s Michael Evans Sells $12 Million of Stock
Evans, 52, sold 70,000 shares at prices ranging from $170.98 to $173.47 on Nov. 23 and Nov. 24, according to the filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

That is understood and timing is indeed admirable – after all (GS) executives are not getting paid our big bucks for nothing, really glad to read that rats are selling into “endless prosperity rally” – talk about topside distribution during last 2 months.  I wonder – if not for special agreement with Warren all American Buffet – would any of them still hold shares of their company?

Dubai default news conveniently broke out after (GS) people sold some shares…
All of course purely coincidental, no pun intended.  I wish I was as good at identifying right time to run from the ship as they are…no pun intended…but I don’t know “their people”…well enough.


The answer I’d like to know: “Where did I see him before?”



Other than that today was pretty dull with a lot of trading opportunities missed (at least by yours truly), one of such being /NG (Natural Gas) long trade…which I completely..cannot say “overlooked”, but…”slept through” may be?


2009-11-27_1539
See you all Monday (yeah..right – YOU are addicts – you’ll be here Sunday night!  And..according to site counter – some of you never leave!)

Oh and by the way – for those of you who complained that “someone” was bidding market up with futures pre open – be thankful – if THEY would not be able to pump it up – WE would face “RULE 48” right this morning.  It is good to be a bulltard – they really take good care of sheeple’s mentality…

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Think positive…

2009-11-25_1934

Let just turn on CNBC, listen to Steve LiesMan and Chinese Laughing Girl AKA Melissa “Have no clue” or to Mr President Obama (he cannot be lying, right?) or to Benny Ber-Na-Nke (translated from now dead language it means either
1. Don’t know shit
or
2. Screw all of you – I am allset already
or
3. I cannot be so dumb to really believe all the crap that coming out of my mouth
Choices for stupid/lying/crappy infotainment are countless – too bad I disconnected cable long time ago – could not stand newly implemented “in the movie commercials” AKA “stupid huge stripes at the bottom, top and across” – I am paying and getting screwed?  Nuh…not with cable IdioTV.

Now that we all feel better and may be we’ll have more wooden nickels AKA American Soft Two Ply Dollas – we can afford more Dollas at multi year lows, just for fun, we not going to go out and buy things for that – we might kill WalMart Clerk on the way to saving $5 at 3AM on Black Friday (WhoTF is waking up at 3AM to buy that garbage?)

Let just be happy and not to worry just like those sweet doggies at that picture, smartest of us may assume that position – at least it will not hurt as much as if we resisted.

Now, speaking of Two Ply Dolla’ – no matter how much I want to bash it – to be fair, 74.10 is a TD Weekly Risk Level and, at least for my trading style, represents another good risk/reward long trade with clear tight stop.

2009-11-26_0035
Have a great jobless Thanksgiving, enjoy your family (“Family Comes First” – you may want to skip 2 minutes if you are not the patient type) and I wish I had a good news for you, but all I can say is: “Enjoy the ride now – the destination will be much worse”

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Fowl Tape?

Not to be outdone by the Hot options babe, TTW has its own version of a Hot Chick! Yeah, that's right! :-) May I present Miss Butterball.

Well... as we all sit here wondering what's going to happen next, I thought it might be a good time to review our volatility charts now that the fear factor seems to be missing in action completely. I like that! No fear, eh? Also noted is this lousy volume issue pre-holiday, but to not expect that is to think there is a Santa Claus too. I am not convinced we wouldn't have seen an anticipated pullback had we had normal volume, so it might be Monday before we see anything moving beyond a tight range. In any event, I would be more than happy to be surprised going into the close today and be told I was way off base. Surprise me, market, will you?

Also, of note... GS, my personal favorite Turkey is trading below support so far, maybe there is a Santa Claus afterall.

If I don't say it enough, I really mean it when I say thank you everybody for every single contribution you make each day. These are the times that try men's (and women's) souls, who have half a brain and can see through the smoke and mirrors. While we have 43% of food stamp recipients employed, absolute nonsensical cherry-picked economic data coming at us every day, we keep hanging in here doing our trading thing. So... kudos to all of us! I am thankful for this blog and for all of my trading buddies this Thanksgiving, I adore all of you more than words can say. Have a safe and restful holiday, and a virtual toast to us all! I may or may not be trading on Friday with you, as I'll be in a DC overdosing on tryptophan induced meals, but I'll try to sneak off to a corner with my laptop and check in. ~Keirsten P.S. for you turkey warriors, observe the video below, and don't try this at home!




































Tuesday, November 24, 2009

When the smoke clears?

art-with-smoke-1

 

Caught myself on very unsetting thought – for over 2 months I’ve been wasting time, energy and money trying to catch a major move, and, in fact, even manor ones, even those that I did manage to capitalize on – did not worth time spent and mental energy drained.

 

Topping or basing – it does not matter, since mid September SPX is up stunning 55 points – slightly more than 5.5% – under traditional 7-8% stop any self respecting trend trader will have in place.

 

Speaking of individual stocks – it has been even more obvious monkey business – look at all short portfolio “opened” on September 14th – as of today’s close it is down whapping 

-0.56% !

 

Counting that it includes few stocks which would have been stopped out long time ago (marked with blue arrow, even based on 10% stop) and in this case, that all short portfolio would be at about  5% gain while $SPX is up 5.5%!

 

2009-11-24_2133 

WHY ARE WE RACING OURSELVES TO DEATH TRYING TO FIND THAT ILLUSIVE INEXISTING TRADE???

 

This is one of the very few real advantages of retail trader – having luxury not to trade when we don’t have to or there is nothing to trade!

Why do we keep running after these small bits and pieces and by the time next big trade will reveal itself we are totally exhausted – mentally and monetary?

 

What is wrong with us?

 

How did we know that there was going to be no “strong directional trade”?

Too many people were waiting for it, market gurus were calling for it, common sense traders were arguing it was unavoidable (what market has to do with “common sense”?) and, most importantly – market is the very last “sealed door” separating existing political system from anger of awakening mob – and it will not be pretty, not this time, so – who would dig the pit for themselves letting market down sharply or consistently?  Forget the dollar - “they” already bought villas in Paraguay and moved gold in safe places, screw the dollar. (not even speaking of monthly SPX TDSetup counts due to complete in January)

 

End of rant.

 

Chart of $VIX – right at support, this week marks possible 13 of buy countdown.

2009-11-24_2141

Few observations

New intraday high on (SPY) yesterday was rejected, same for (DIA) – both closed below prior high close, (QQQQ) continues to lag, none of above 3 reset in progress TDSetup Buy counts, all at important trendlines, all “somebody” are on vacation already (I spent day in New York City bar hopping with ole’ friends of mine…those who still has not died from excessive drinking or other not so natural reasons :)

 

I think market will be going lower till the end of November at least and I’ll take it from there…

Am I trying to call direction again???

 

 11/25/2009

Futures approx. BO

 

 

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1093.25

1105.25

SPX

1096.68

1106.61

/NQ

1772

1790.25

NDX

1773.14

1789.22

/DX

74.875

75.335

 

Quite a day (morning) tomorrow…do we really care?  We decided that market will go down tomorrow – did not we?

 

2009-11-24_2200 http://www.forexfactory.com

Gold Digger

No gold-digging for me... I take diamonds! We may be off the gold standard someday.” - Mae West (If only she could see what's happened since....)

Tuesday mid-session finds most of us grumbling about this chop, chop, fizz, fizz tape, and there's really not much to say, as we all expected as much before the Thanksgiving holiday here in the U.S. All eyes have been on gold for several weeks now, and gold is only slightly up so far today, but rather than focus on that chart, I'm sharing a chart on GDX, as we may have a potential trade there is if stays true to form and plays within the channel. Oil is also showing some interesting possibilities here, so keep an eye on that chart as well. On the bullish side, the upside target is rather lovely, to say the least, but with inventory report coming out tomorrow, that pattern is tracking the lower channel support and it could still go either way. DDT asked to be reminded to share some DM charts on some Chinese stocks, so while we wait for those, here are the most recent charts on SSEC and HSI, but these are prior to last night's action, where SSEC took a -3.45% haircut, HSI correcting -1.53. Good trading to you into the afternoon session. The treasury auction announcement is at 1:00 PM EST, followed by FOMC note release at 2:00 PM. Tomorrow's economic calendar includes: 8:30 AM Durable Goods, Personal Income and Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment - 9:55, New Home Sales - 10:00, Petroleum Status - 10:30, Nat Gas Status - 12:00 and 7 year Note Auction - 1:00 PM.



























































Groundhog Day or How I spent my last Thanksgiving...

Monday, November 23, 2009

Some days are more boring than others

2009-11-23_2214

 

Yes, I know I know – we don’t trade for excitement, we trade for bread (Remember “Knish” from “Rounders”?)

But, no matter what – today was as boring as it gets – with mandatory Monday gap up on yet another Bull[t]urd’s currency bashing in form of proposing of endless MBS buying in “prospering” economy (WhoTF is still listening those MoFo who cannot even lie convincingly?)

 

 

 

Anyhow, just wanted to post few charts to demonstrate that longer term bearish picture has not changed…yet…

weekly ($SPX) holding risk zone of last TDSequential Sell 13

 

2009-11-23_2224

Daily ($SPX) under w3/wC target of 1113-1115, under current risk level around 1112, RSI under 60 in spite of up day

 

2009-11-23_2226

Lower timeframes do not give too many keys except for consolidation after buy setup on 15 min (weakness into close)

 

2009-11-23_2228

But here is the question – is this volume attributed to bottoming process OR issuance of gazillion shares by UUP and therefore buying futures contracts to back it up?

 

2009-11-23_2230

 11/24/2009

Futures approx. BO

 

 

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1097

1118.50

SPX

1100.55

1118.07

/NQ

1777.25

1816.50

NDX

1787.25

1806.24

/DX

74.735

75.545

 

Oh…and I just become Bob Prechter’s friend…not really – just an affiliate (that was easy) and they are giving away Fibonacci E-Book http://tinyurl.com/yhftjpz

Monday Revives the $VOMINX

Have you ever come home to something like this? That's what watching this mornings gap and go felt like if you had any short positions. Ripped to shreds. We have a few posters who are feeling a little green this morning, and I usually consider that a good sign, hence the revival of the $VOMINIX. So, new highs on INDU, but not on the Qs, Spoos or the RUT, nor did the VIX move to new lows. Is there an upside to all of this? Of course there is! As long as we have some weakness in some areas, we have ample trades both short and long, it just takes a little more finesse and fine tuning to churn out some profits, but they're there. So, with that, here is a chart on XLF and IWM for a look at the weak and the weaker. Tomorrow's economic calendar includes: before the bell: ICSG-Goldman Store Sales, Corporate Profits and GDP. 9:00 AM- Case-Shiller HPI, 10:00 AM - Consumer Confidence, 1:00 PM - 5 yr Note Auction, and finally at 2:00- FOMC Meeting Notes. Lots of fun for everyone!

























Douala found this video, enjoy!

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Bits and pieces – no reason…

MV5BMTY3OTY3NzUyN15BMl5BanBnXkFtZTYwODQ2OTk2._V1._SX450_SY300_

Why should I trade one tyrant three thousand miles away for three thousand tyrants one mile away? An elected legislature can trample a man's rights as easily as a king can.

What would you do if they destroyed your home, threatened your family. Where would you draw the line?

 

Although the constitution **** was never officially repealed, the legal measures taken by the **** government in February and March ****, commonly known as ***** ("coordination") meant that the government could legislate contrary to the constitution. The constitution became irrelevant, therefore **** is usually seen as the end of the **** Republic and the beginning of *****.

 

 

I love that propaganda cartoon, modern crap is not that convincing.

“Cold War cartoon aimed at American workers with the objective of convincing them of their good fortune.”

Let me translate what they say in this timeless piece: “ We are number one and you are number one, because number 2 and number 3 and number 25 and number 174 are all devastated after the war and we will call ourselves number one even thou there is none else to step up to the plate and beside – we got all their gold now”

OY…

 

 

 

 

 

Now – what we started from – without omissions:

Although the constitution of 1919 was never officially repealed, the legal measures taken by the Nazi government in February and March 1933, commonly known as Gleichschaltung ("coordination") meant that the government could legislate contrary to the constitution. The constitution became irrelevant, therefore 1933 is usually seen as the end of the Weimar Republic and the beginning of Hitler's "Third Reich".

 

Back to ongoing recession…

So, how do we fight recession?

Since I am not a financial advisor I can only give you an advise of a common sense:

 

Stop buying cereals – why would you pay $5 for the box of “nothing with some sugar” which cost 5c to make?

 

On a positive note – you can use money you saved to order customized M&Ms at ****.com with touchy sign “SUCK MY M&M

 

Can you just imagine how they rape you on the price of the carpet itself if they promise to do full house install for $35???

 

Now back to market talk… on the second thought – forget market tonight.

 

Have some fun (complements of Rhae and Karl Denninger)

 

Friday, November 20, 2009

Weekend at DDT's

Great week everybody! Now it's the weekend, and I'm sure we'll all shuffle in between now and Monday with offerings of good tidings for the week ahead, but for now just a big thank you for all of the hard work that kept us all on the straight and narrow (if that's possible with this crew.) What you see to your left is the hard work and sharing that goes into trading this market day in and day out - every one of those pictures tells a story to guide our way. You can't have a team of good traders with one person to play, and I know this is what David envisioned this blog to be ... so a huge thank you to all of you! See you later and enjoy your weekend to the hilt! Work hard, play hard. ~Keirsten


Edit to add this chart from Humble Student:
"
The circles on this image is Fib arc from 1987 low to the high of internet bubble.
a. The low of internet bubble is on 38.2% arc.
b. S&P 1576 high is on 38.2% arc.
b. 666 low is on 61.8% arc.
Therefore, the trend line from Oct. 1987 Black Friday to the low of internet bubble is the resistance right now."
















Saturday Edit: Chart on INDU and I updated the data on my Long-term Mutual Fund Money Flow graph.










Balancing Act

Here we are at another OPEX Friday, and so far it's been slow but steady, with no major economic news announcements, unless you count FDIC Friday after the bell, and that won't be moving this tape either way. But we remain alert, because there are some interesting areas of support in play, not only on the index charts, but the leaders as well. As noted by DDT last evening, even if you only trade one thing, keep a close eye on the others for further clues. So far we've had the RUT and COMPQ leading us down, but that could flip at any given moment. It didn't hurt the shorts to have the entire hard drive sector downgraded yesterday... My own "guess" is we're a wee bit oversold here, but that might not define the rest of the day's price action, so I'm using extreme caution to pick my poison, and I hope you all do too. Oversold/overbought has meant squat for the last several months. As I mentioned in chat earlier, Centrifugal wrote an excellent piece last evening on following your own analysis and doing your own heavy lifting basically, and truer words were never written. The benefit of this particular blog, IMO is that we share our vision and TA outlooks, but stay true to our own trading styles... as it should be. The added benefit is having other sets of eyes to point out hazards and learning and collaborating with each other, but that's not the same as blindly following someone else into a trade, regardless of the outcome.

I'm trading my own accounts like a bee in a hive today, so I'm sharing charts from Alpha and Zig Zag, with basically the same idea in mind. The regular game for the last several months also includes moving up and around those EMAs as far as I can see, with a lot of push/pull nearby. Monday's economic news is Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM EST and a treasury auction.


Good trading going into the afternoon session!
A little something different that was shared with me by Shadow Trader for your listening pleasure below. Enjoy!

Alpha's EW









Zig Zag's SPX




Thursday, November 19, 2009

Wind of Change?

 

 

 

 11/20/2009

Futures approx. BO

 

 

Daily Range Projection

Low

High

/ES

1079

1101.50

SPX

1082.63

1100.67

/NQ

1743

1785.25

NDX

1753.21

1781.10

/DX

75.298

75.743

 

 

Little did we know – that was not the change that HAD TO BE DONE…

 

Opposite Day

It seems like somebody decided to order the chicken salad on rye, not toasted today. The much noted triangle may have been a bearish wedge after all by the moves on the tape so far today. Regardless, this move is playing pretty well for many of our projections time-wise, so we'll take it and trade it as it goes. I noticed last night reading a lot of blogs there were not many looking for a correction out of the gate this morning, much less ever again by the sound of it, but that's why that over-used saying about crowded trades really is over-used.. it happens. Okay.. enough yackity-yack... here are some charts, as well as something I noticed last night fiddling around with my etch-o-sketch on the most recent corrections on SPY. I did use rounded values, so don't come at me for not having the precise numbers, but you'll get the picture. Good trading into the afternoon TTWinners, the team work continues to be phenomenal around here! Oh.. almost forgot! We have a group of Corey Rosenbloom fans on board here and there will be free webinar this afternoon on TICK and Momentum Concepts post session at 4:15 EST if you'd like to watch. The economic calendar is nil tomorrow, so nothing on that front. There is also an interesting article to read when you have time, regarding Societe Generle's report to clients on how to prepare for a potential global collapse by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. And on that high note, have a great trading afternoon!