Sunday, November 29, 2009

Has the Fuse Been Lit?

... or was this specifically timed? That's the $64 question, and I don't think we'll really catch the bulk of the importance of this until we see the tape action tonight and tomorrow. The late tape sell-off on Friday was “interesting,” and may set a new tone going into the end of the year.  What if there is no Santa Claus Rally this year?  Isn’t everyone expecting one? Just sayin’….  Take your kid to work day is over now, you can stick a fork in Black Friday retail faux numbers, and now it's time to see where the rubber will meet the real road. Damage control is already happening on the Dubai issue, and we have a huge week in economic news ahead. Noteworthy on the Dubai issue is that RBC and USBS have hefty stakes involved, so how this pans out will be interesting, to say the least, and how this will play out for further risk appetite going forward. 

While all eyes are finished with Dancing With the Stars and are now wondering if Tiger's wife went postal on him, we'll be watching several important events: RBA convenes on December 1st (November 30th for U.S.) for a possible rate hike (or not,) the ECB will also be meeting Thursday for a rate decision, and to top it off the U.S. has a myriad of important news including the all important November UE numbers on Friday. So, between important moves in Forex as well as equities, it's time to man the torpedoes. Tomorrow kicks off with Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM.

We have a pretty good consensus amongst our various TA methods that we'll see an important pivot move this week, and I have to say, I'm really excited to watch this unfold for this group. Beyond some charts I wanted to share, there are a few web links worth noting for further TA possibilities. As some of you probably already know, one of our best chartists, Joe8888 also works closely with Jeff Cooper, and Cooper had an extensive article on pivots, etc. that you might enjoy reading through, including his Wheel of Price and Time. I also took a look at the State Street Investor Confidence chart, and I think it's really worth your look. DDT mentioned the insider selling on GS over the weekend, and here is a chart view of overall insider selling. Yes, we use TA, but we follow the money, and once again, my graph on Long-term Money Flows showed further moves out of domestic equities for the week of November 18th. So good trading to us all this week, and here are several charts of various things I found interesting, and hope you will too if you've stayed awake this long to read through my diatribe.  See you all later tonight as we watch the futures open and huddle for some trades. 


And finally, a look at GS through the Ichimoku lens:




Futures approx. BO



Daily Range Projection


















blog comments OCCASIONALLY powered by Disqus