Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Like it or not, but better respect it

Last week as speculated was tight range bound trading, but nevertheless closing prices permitted TD Setup Buy for SPY on daily to complete.  This is the second time recently when Buy Setup completed around 50-62% retracement of W3 D-Wave UP on daily (yellow arrows) and quite possible that area will provide support and trampoline for move up.  I think 109-110 area will be very telling IF in fact move up will materialize.




Off the topic – reporting on my mid life crisis – went out to drive cheap, but powerful sport coupe (YUP – imagine that – HUYNDAI !!! I though I would never be caught alive in that dealership…here I go…cheap old fart…but I ended up talking home (just for few days – to try) Lotus Elise…what a fun little car…but you better be damn sure you are close to gas station – I have no idea what idiot put such a small fuel tank in that "dune baggy" – that explains why I came home 2 hours later than planned :(

Pease, refrain from comment on "20 something girlfriend" and "pull me off" yellow color!



Sunday, August 29, 2010

Muted, range bound action

At the end of May on Members Site I speculated that MOS might be a good long based on weekly TD Setup Buy in progress


This is an old chart


Here is today's chart – DeMark did it again – price went all the way down to TD Risk Level ( around 10% below TDST) and up it went after that – producing over 50% gain. 



The point is – money management shall be an integral part of all trading systems (I am really bad with that part, I was groomed by cavalry squadron :)


Current market action for position trades is not the best, but I think in few days if SPY will hold 104.60 area, there might be a long trade coming up.



It is great to see a lot of new "faces" and see how different opinions and methods coexist here – this is what TTW is for – everyone and everything…for as long as ego is contained and others are respected – keep it up gang!

Thursday, August 26, 2010

The Good, The Bad or The Ugly?

.. that's the big question for tomorrow's GDP report. First of all, we have a small change in the MCO, which is the signal for a possible large move coming in the next few trading sessions. Second of all, this was not a very good bullish confirmation day for more upside, but we're used to surprises, so normal TA in that respect has to be taken with a grain of salt.  Lastly, it appears we have a bearish dark cloud cover candlestick on SPY EOD, but it needs to confirm tomorrow. 


A few charts and some interesting things to keep in mind on the daily charts going forward.


indu_8_26 ndx_8_26
spx_pnf_8_26 spy_8_26
nymo_8_26 nysi_5_ema

Good trading to you all tomorrow!  Don’t let me down- take their money and run!


How about a little spaghetti western music to get you in the mood for trading on Friday?  Buon Appetito. Mwahahahaha


Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Risky Business

Looking over Wednesday's trading landscape, the thing that stands out in a big way is that it appears the risk trade is possibly back on again. We saw it in oil, we saw it in the RUT, and it has to be respected going forward or you risk getting your lips ripped off. It's times like these you have to put on the blinders, the ear plugs and anything else you need to do to focus on price. Forget about rule violations and/or expectations, because if they're trying to make the freight train leave the station here, you don't want to be tied to the tracks, okay? This could be a short-term dead cat bounce from oversold conditions, or something bigger, but whatever it is, if you're on the wrong side you know how this story ends. Get neutral in your head - no bias- no expectations, just trade with the sharks as they navigate above the alligators. This is when focus counts more than anything. I trust that you’ll all watch the details of the moving pieces intra-day and keep each other safe.   Don’t forget to check the EOD prints on TICK for further strength or weakness, monitor the copper chart, log the 5 day TRIN average… details, details, details. 

Included in the charts tonight are a full look at SPY intra-day chart, replete with previous CCs up higher. Do we get there? I don't know, but you'll have what my eyes have seen in case you need it for reference. ;-)

rut_lg_8_25 rut_sm_8_25
vix_8_25 dx_8_25




Zig’s T for tomorrow  :-)




Stay safe and sane TTWrs… I’ll be on my way home to SoCal for a little visit tomorrow night, and will catch you when I get back again.  Guard the castle from the flying monkeys.  143  <3


Rise and Shine

Just a comment cleaner and a few charts for you to keep on watch. We've obviously had an interesting week so far, and I'm sure we're in for more surprises as the next three trading days unfold. With various EW counts, DM alerts and cycle dates coming up shortly things should stay interesting. For me, at least, we're in one of those places on the charts where the trade is not so clear, and not so extreme you can almost write the next chapter in your sleep, so caution is warranted in either direction. If you're not seeing a solid case for a trade, the best advice is to SOH and wait until a lightbulb goes off in your head. Both longs and shorts have been battered enough that this should be second nature to everyone, but I just want to urge you to be careful. Many indicators "look" like they're in oversold territory, but they also looked like they were in overbought territory for the better part of 2009 and that actually caught many shorts unprepared. This works both ways, so if you're a knife catcher make sure you have a well defined trade signal, target and exit plan- the same of course, goes for shorts.

I have a few charts to share tonight- several regarding the tech sector. Osi and I both came up with a possible Gann cycle target of 9/8/10 last evening, and what's interesting about that date is: the market will be closed for the Labor Day holiday, so although when watching those cycle dates you want to consider +/- 2-3 days on either side, this will be close to the time the "big boys" bring their toys home from the Hamptons and start the real shenanigans. Anyway- as we get closer to that time frame we'll study the cycles more closely and see what we can zero in on to our advantage. Below you'll also see Osi's Gann calculations for price on the SPY.

See you all in the morning! Oh wait! It IS morning already and my sleep cycle is so messed up I'm a walking zombie. Good trading to my fellow zombies on Wednesday!

spx_8_25 ndx_8_25
smh_8_25 aapl_8_25
dx_large_8_25 dx_close_8_25


Osi’s Gann Calculations for possible price targets

osi gann

Monday, August 23, 2010


That was actually a pretty fun day if you were scalping and playing some patterns and so forth. But then again, traders are crazy, so our version of fun would make a non-trader fully nuts. :-) The Gartley pattern I pointed out earlier in the afternoon really hit beautifully in both time and price.

I need to make this short tonight (ahem,) but wanted to welcome our newbies, and let them know we hope they'll find this place to be of benefit. We throw everything but the kitchen sink at the tape, and although it might seem confusing at first, eventually you'll find a pretty well-coordinated group of traders who have something they throw out there to enhance whatever form of TA you're using. Anyway- enough of that, let's look at a few charts.

Reading Jack's wonderful post yesterday made me realize I needed to look back over the really long-term charts at this point, and so I offer you another view of what I think might unfold, which hasn’t changed much since I posted this chart early this year. This could take some time, and I mean years, unless Armageddon is coming, but as technicians we prep for all possibilities. Anyway- have fun tomorrow traders- stay focused and on your toes as always. Although some of us might show a bearish view of things with T/A at times, we remain positive in our thoughts for our own success no matter which way the tape is moving. Believe in yourself- it doesn’t cost a thing.

spy_eod_8_23 spx_eod_8_23


dow_yearly_final big_m_spx

How about a little subliminal music for this tape? :-) I think the first time I heard this song I was up in Vancouver, so here’s to BeefStick and Inna- have fun guys- I’m green with envy I can’t be there too.

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Weekend Mental Gymnastics

I just went over a pile of charts looking for something- anything that would give an edge, and I really don't see it at this point. Monday has the usual ST cycle advantage for the longs, but beyond that- the daily and weekly charts give nothing solid, imho. It's flip of the coin time by the look of it. If we continue down into the high 1050s on Monday, I'd be more apt to trade for a bounce from there, but carefully. If we bounce Monday- I like the short odds setting up for mid-week, etc.. Anyway- a quick weekend hodge podge of charts., and a few individual names I ‘m watching. Just remember- Laundry's date was not "exact" in 2007, although pretty darned close. I'm not liking the high level of focus on the HO either at this point, but only due to the chronic use of these popular TA signals/woo doo that have trapped bears once too many times.

Also- for 13/34 fans, check out those EMAs on the current index charts. *Those* I like a lot here, as well as NYSI and NYMO at this point for MT trend trading.

For the Benefit of Mr. Kite and Osi, in case he forgets: Full moon on Tuesday.

nysi_8_23 nymo_8_23
spx_hns spy_8_23
smh_8_23 iyt_8_23
xhb_8_23 iwm_hs
iyt_8_23 fdx_8_23
s_butterfly crm_8_23
akam akam_2_8_23
x_8_23 cvx_8_23


And a huge regret on my part….

eee_8_23 eee_weekly_8_23



Best to you all this coming week- look sharp.  :-)