Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Don't you just hate "that"

(ADBL) placed on "BUY" list on the night of February 26th on Members Site with the buy price "above 8.18" today gapped way above that price, most active, one of the biggest gainers - and I DON'T HAVE IT!

Oh well, there going to be another day
Same thing happened way back with (BOW) a while ago - very sad :(

(MSO) profiled on the same date behaved slightly better, up 5% in the morning, gave up some gains by midafternoon, moved higher by close and trading higher aftermarket.

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

That was brutal and there was nothing we could do

though it has been expected...for a while now.
Hope most of you were hedged one way or another, but even then I don't think there was anyone 100% short and it was not a good day to have long positions. Even though most of my long positions were at the green zone and I had stop losses limit orders in place - that did not help quite well - 1/2 of orders did not fire due to down volume - "limit" did not do the job today :)

Tomorrow going to be another day - don't rush into market, don't add to long positions on "dips", don't blame yourselves if market will move up after you did not buy - we will wait for a trend, now - it is most likely will be down, but not straight down, close long positions ( except may be for few most defensive ), add to (QID) on any recovery efforts ( do it in small batches - we still do not have established trend - no matter what "they" say)
Don't be a hero - I hope you were not, NOT TODAY
Good luck

Don't be a hero...

Yes, right, good morning to you too :-)

It will be interesting to see if market is going to be able to overcome China selloff, if that happen - I am adding long positions, if not - I will run for the cover as fast as I can, so far - does not look like there is a good day in store for the market, good luck all, forget "hope", "fear" is the word to think about...

And, PLEASE, don't listen to CNBC if they are going to say something like "buying opportunities" - let THEM buy it!

We are nearing the time when most heroic action will be either staying on a sidelines or if you have taste for shorting - to be short.

I will be watching - I am not catching tops and bottoms.

Good luck all
Remember: "You can not play if you lost all your chips" - keep your "chips"!

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Few quick long ideas

(DIL), (CSIQ), (JAV), (RNIN)

I think market will drop on the open and move higher right after - will see

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Google Docs&Spreadsheets Problem

Google Docs&Spreadsheets mysteriously started to malfunction since Google introduced "Google Premier Apps" - paid, as you guessed correctly, it is beyond my control, quotes are not loading correctly or just plain not loading at all.
According to Google team - "they are on it" - for 10 days already

Tales of Emails

No real names have been used in this post to protect privacy of Members

I'd like to go through few email I have received lately and answer publicly
Members' names stated as "X", "Y" and so on, my replies marked as "D"

Email from "X"
"X": "Dear David
Thank you very much for your ideas, they save me a lot of time in doing my home work"
D: too bad you cutting down on your homework

"X" : I was able to make $500 in one week"
"D": - that does not ell me anything, but congrats

"X" - first I bought "stock #1" for $2,000 - made $70,
then I bought "stock #2" for $5,000 - made $130, then I bought "stock #3" for $3,000 - broke even" and so on...
"D" - congrats on not going broke faster than you will - and you WILL go broke, don't blame me, I regret to inform that your membership will NOT be renewed

Email from "Y"
"Y" - I've been watching your picks and when I became comfortable I bought "stock #1", but it has not been performing at all, so I am still holding that stock #1 and waiting with next purchase...
"D" - I regret to inform that your membership will NOT be renewed

Email from "W"
Dear David, I've been using you ideas for few months now, many of them works quite nicely, one thing I disagree is that you recommend to "keep at least 2/3 of profit" therefore you cutting opportunities to make more money on a stock. As an example look at "stock #5"
"D" - dear "W", sorry it took a while to answer you, I've been swamped by emails and membership requests lately, my apologies it took 4 days to answer. I hope you don't need my answer anymore, because "stock #5" after running up +17% in 3 days and correcting to the +12% after that ( it had to be sold to keep +12% profit), after second leg up to total profit of +15% collapsed and sitting at the loss of -24% to initial "trigger price", so instead of making +12% you lost -24%. ( I hope you sold it at -8% according to the "RULES")
I regret to inform that your membership will NOT be renewed.

*****************
This list might go on and on,
let me try to answer most of "reinventing the wheel emails at once:
My "system" ( it is NOT MY system, it is common sense and methods used by many successful trader over extended period of time) calls for "DISCIPLINE", it is a "percentage game", it is "minimize losses" - "maximize gains", it is risk control, it is "DO NOT BE A HERO" approach, it is NOT "get rich overnight" approach.
Let me stress cornerstone rules for the way I trade ( which a lot of "me too traders" pressed for time never bothered to read in the different "educational posts" I spend my time on for "my own pleasure"

1. No "dollar" talk, "%" ONLY
2. Equal positions sizes
3. Multiple simultaneous positions
4. Risk control - never risk more than 2% of TPV (total portfolio value) on one trade,
never ever risk more than 7-8% single position
5. Never let "profit trade" to become "losing trade"
6. Sell laggards
7. do you own homework!
and on and on and on...
8. NEVER use more than 20% of margin - preferably 0%

Here is what I am starting to do beginning today in respect to "accepting new members"
When requesting membership - send me email "quiz" type listing of my rules - I need to know if you will not get hurt using my ideas. ( Even tho "legal disclaimer" states that anything I post is a complete BS for "entertainment purposes" - I still don't like to see people lose money)

It is too bad that most of "I want to get rich fast" new traders started to trade ( not even speaking of 1987 crash) after 2000 prolonged severe bear market.

These "traders" WILL loose more money than they made - don't blame anyone other than yourselves.

I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR MY TRADING IDEAS ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Thursday, February 22, 2007

I feel lazy tonight

That is why instead of regular routine of going through hundreds of charts generated by scans I've designed, I took a "memory trip" - went over some of the ideas I had few months ago. For better or worth, judge for yourselves...


(ACTI) - dropped today - I don't read news ( at least today ) - was it due to moronic downgrade of (ID) by Matrix research?
Anyhow - (ACTI) - I will grab as many shares tomorrow as I will be able to - I have a weird feeling that something big is about to happen.

(AXTI) - I think it is a buy at 5.10

(TTIL) - as soon as it will touch 2.58 - I will buy

(UCTT) - when (IF) it'll go to 14.58 - I am a buyer

Now for short ideas:

(LNOP) is a short under 11.93 ( NOT BEFORE!)

That will be it for freebies - freeloaders rejoice - for real stuff there always is a Members Site




* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Nice surprise...

(UWN) placed on buy list on Members Site on February 15th at a "buy price" of 2.50 ( noted - "risky") all in a sudden moved up on news, closed at 3.26 producing nice 5 trading days profit of over 30% - and they say "charts are for fools and fool and his money will soon part" - I have a question - HOW FOOL GOT HIS MONEY ON THE FIRST PLACE?

Also, (CYD) from February 20th proved to be more than "tradeable"!
as well, as (DMX) ( risky or not - money been made!)

* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

"Tradeable day"

This is delayed information describing real opportunities listed on Members Site

quoted:

"It is so nice when things work the way they should.
(TASR) after ER should have made money to brave souls
( In spite to opening slightly higher than trigger price, I entered and trailed with -2% - made about 6%)
(CYD) - as noticed was "tradeable"
(TINY) broke out nicely
(ASTSF) as always - very illusive - trailed -2%, made some money - broke out RIGHT at the trigger price, spiking very nicely.

The might be an update to "current" list, pay attention to updated cells (bright blue), if not:
(ABMD) makes me sick - off it goes!
(SHRP) - had a shakeoff, if it will not behave tomorrow - should be gone.
(WPTE) ( triggered on 2/15) finally made its move +5.62% today ( over 8% in 3 days)
Also, I closed (DCTH), (IDIX), (IOTN) longs today, not because they don't look good - because I like money in the pocket, might re-enter later on.

Hope everyone is making money"

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Public Stocks Picks Performance

(Begin 12-JAN-2007 NOTE)
AS OF 12-JAN-2007 I stopped maintaining this spreadsheet as it turned to be EXTREMELY TIME CONSUMING, point has been illustrated - market has been substantially outperformed.

In less than 3 weeks "Publicly available watch lists" generated over 34% GAIN.


I added 3 more REAL trades I placed in my REAL PORTFOLIO (those trades are been based on publicly available stock lists of last week and are been placed using "TRADE TRIGGERS" at predefined "breakout prices" ( (BHIP), (EVOL), (JADE) )
(End 12-JAN-2007 NOTE)

This is as of 12-JAN-2007 performance of stocks picks PUBLICLY profiled on Trading To Win site.
Stocks profiled on Trading to Win site will be added to the spreadsheet NEXT day at "10:30AM" price.
To see my personal holdings/trades READ My stocks lists A.K.A. Members Site
and VISIT Members Site

Sunday, February 18, 2007

Anticipate vs. react ( A.K.A. - where market is going?)

There going to be no answer in this post, not because I have no feeling as to "where and when" market is going, but because it is just that - "feeling".

Better minds are trying to figure out short term direction of the market, I cannot compete with them.
With my luck I am not going to be 1 out of 10,000 who will be able to post on their blog/site long after market will change direction: "We predicted exact date of market collapse!"
And 9,999 others will be quietly holding their horses.
Sounds like unprofitable gamble, is it not?

To anticipate the market is to gamble, to watch and react is to trade.
I trade, I don't expect to triple my portfolio if I'll be able to spot "THE DAY" and jump in with huge margin. I also will NOT lose most of my money if market will prove me wrong

Some might call the way I trade silly, I might open and close position in the same stock multiple times with small losses or gains, I wait for the stock to prove that it is NOW that it WILL move strongly and I WILL make more money in shorter time with better risk/ reward ratio. No matter if I swing trade or day trade, I always wait for "pivot point", I am not trying to buy cheaper ( if I go long) - I want to buy "right where the most money is". Most people call it "breakout/breakdown", I don't mind, but for some reason ( may be because I am as unbalanced in many aspects of my life as great Jessy Livermore was, NO - I cannot compete indeed) I like to call the price I want to see on the tape before I buy just a "pivot point". It implies that there is no guarantee that after breaching that price stock WILL and SHOULD go where I need it to, it just says: " Stock MIGHT move". Will it? I will watch and react.

On my "Members Site" I have "Current ideas" list and "OFF/Archived ideas" list.
Once stock goes off the "current" list it does not automatically implies that it will never make it back to the "current" list, all it is that "THIS IDEA" is currently less appealing than ideas on the "current" list. I am not always able to keep up with all past ideas, but it is highly recommended for MEMBERS to go over "OFFed" ideas and ask me if "that old idea" might look good as of today.

Two recent examples of "OFFed" ideas
(IDIX) was "OFFed" due to market volatility, but since it behaved nicely, I kept watching and finally it moved through the "pivot point" on 2/12/07 where I opened position and produced about 15% in 3 days.
(DCTH) "OFFed" due to the same reason - I kept watching ( I always, well mostly have my email alert set for every single "current" AND "offed" stock - on 2/15/07 made through the Pivot price" of 4.03 - profit of 8% in 2 days.
(LMRA) was placed on the "Current" list as of night of February 14th - nice move right next day ( It amuses me greatly to read all the blogs how everyone spotted LMRA move BEFORE, but posted it after due to been very busy making tons of money, oh well :)

List might go on and on.
I went of the topic, my apologies, what I am saying time and again - watch the market, watch your positions, react swiftly, ask questions later.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Interesting move on LMRA

Definitely did not expect it to happen right next day after I posted it on Members Site - therefore only had a chance to open 1/2 regular position in (LMRA) ( way overextended on margin now)
For new ideas visit Members Site
* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

New lists

list #1
(NSM) (PGR) (IDTI) (KRNY)

and

list #2
(WEDC) (OHB) (WPTE) (PACT) (ATSI) (SHRP) (ABMD) (LMRA) (ACTI)

Almost forgot, long is list #... and long is the list #...

Since I pressed on time and it does not make much sense to type same things twice, why don't you just visit Members Site and read it there...good night now

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Quick update

(IDIX) added to the current list on the night of Feb 11th keeps moving.
I'm having fun reading YAHOO's message boards - main question there is "WHY?"
It is not relevant, what is - it is up about 12% from trigger price ( and real time email provided as of this point just as a courtesy to members )

(CPSL) added just yesterday ( in this case there was neither "luck" nor "been good") collapsed at about 2PM today, "WHY?" - it does not matter now - it is at a loss of 4% ( according to "4% any time during the day" stop loss rule)

For more ideas visit Members Site of trading to Win Blog

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Friday, February 09, 2007

Is "IT" happening?

Sinsecato from TagBoard found interesting post:
"I found it on CSCO's summary page on Yahoo, entitled "Bears Bare Dull Teeth."
In a way it is similar to the picture in Wall Street Journal with title "The Bear is dead"

Stocks go down on good news
It is cold ( What it is got to do with market? I don't know - it is cold!)

Market has been in a very tight trading range - has to be resolved - and for some reason I have a feeling that today's action is a very beginning of this "resolution" and the road is DOWN.

As I type all my current long positions are getting closed - if I am wrong - I can always re-enter or just find other opportunities.

Still hesitant to open short positions - I am no good in catching tops or bottoms.

Cash IS a KING now

DavidDT

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Some "members site" ideas

Long: (EGOV) (SCLN) (MZT) (XRTX)

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Interesting emails I'm getting lately....

Question
"What was your motive when you closed your January 18th long TWW (triggered on January 25th ). You only made 7.5% when you could just hold on into that stock and as of today your profit would be over 17% in 3 more days?"

Answer:
TWW - bought at 7.36 on Jan 25th, sold on Feb 2nd to protect about 2/3 of profit made.
Lets assume I would hold, then on Feb 6th when in the very morning it touched 7.35 which is already at a loss to fill price of 7.36 - I don't think I would be brave enough to hold on at even money, I would probably ( most likely ) sell to brake even AND would be VERY upset to see it skyrocketing right after I sell two days in a row.
Beside, it could do "CVTX" ( Jan 17th long idea, bought Jan 23rd, sold with -6% loss and after that CVTX proceeded down to -11% loss as of today)

Indeed, I shall agree that only 1 out of 4 "breakout" stocks will move non-stop to higher grounds and 2 out of 4 will descend to pivot point (I call it trigger price for some reason )
But let me ask - what about 1 out of 4 which will just continue to fall until it is too late to sell?

The truth is - there is no universal answer to "when to sell" question.
As long as money is made and losses contained - I am happy...
(one more thing - the real winners never look back after they take off)
DavidDT

P.S. Stocks discussed in this post were profiled on Members Site.

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Recently "triggered" stocks

Below are stocks profiled on Members Site from Jan 21st to Jan 29th - all long
(they hit "trigger"/purchase price)

date profiled symbol % gain/loss off "trigger price"
22-JAN-2007 (TWLL) +3
24-JAN-2007 (BLDR) +4.18
24-JAN-2007 (SPAR) +3.6
29-JAN-2007 (TKO) +12.65
29-JAN-2007 (CDL) +2.54


4 positions have been closed with average loss of -2%

Major embarrassment - (SGMO) long position opened on Jan 23rd was closed prematurely due to "closing below trigger price on day one" AND -
( "coulda-woulda-shoulda" ) would I have more trust in the "system" (there is NO system, just "systematic work") it would be at 20% as of today.

I think I have been overly cautious lately, hope market will breakout of that narrow trading range soon ( one way or another - indecision is hard to "swallow" )

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST DETAILED STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *

Monday, February 05, 2007

(TKO) or "What do we know"

Nuisance trade in (TKO) long on January 30th, which failed breakout and got stuck on my account due to "TREO 650 sudden death syndrome", turned around and posted 6.5% gain off the trigger price ( total move today as of close = +9.9% ( was as high as about 12%).
Interestingly enough during the period from Jan 30th till today (TKO) only once touched "stop price" of $3.11 ( never went below ).

Flexibility...sometimes pays off ( sometimes it does not - but this is what differ traders from ... hmm.. "investors"? :-)

P.S. (TKO) was profiled on Members Site night of January 29th

Sunday, February 04, 2007

They Shoot Horses, Don't They?


Very delicate subject indeed...
You did you home work, you identified a "pivot point" on the chart, you went through the balance sheet, you researched potential revenue based on products/services offered by the company, sector is hot - everything is in your favor ( speaking of long, for short - it'd be quite the same just more difficult and in reverse) and yada-yada-yada.

So, you pull the trigger and buy XYZ1, XYZ2 and XYZ3
2 weeks later
XYZ1 is up 15%, XYZ2 is flat and XYZ3 is -7%

You make executive decision to sell your XYZ3 looser (This site is not for bagholders - YES - feel deep disrespect for such), to take profits on your XYZ1 winner ( could be justifiable) AND keep your laggard, namely XYZ2 a little longer - give it the benefits of the doubt).

You are happy - you just made 2.65% on portfolio

So you replace XYZ1 with XYZ4 and XYZ3 with XYZ5 and you wait another 2 weeks.
After end of another 2 weeks XYZ4 is up 8% XYZ2 is still flat and XYZ5 is up 4%
At this point of time you begin to pay more attention to XYZ2, cheering it like a horse on a race, you say: "Come on baby, everyone is doing soooo good, wake up now..."

You stop paying attention to XYZ4 and XYZ5 and few days later they drift to negative territory, but that is fine with you - you are still up for a month.

Then you wake up in the morning, and finally XYZ2 IS MOVING, just not where you wanted it to.. it is down 40% on ...whatever news it might be ( but trust me - everything else given and stock is not moving in the direction expected 70% of the time that news WILL BE BAD)

What happened? You thought you are smarter than a market ( millions of other players),
you thought that market will discover how smart you are and your stock will go up big sooner or later.
In reality - there was a good reason for XYZ2 to lag in spite of all the good looking results of your home work - someone KNEW the truth about what will happen to the company's stock - and, believe you me, it was not pretty.
So, you wiped all profits, you are sitting on losses because of your ego ("how come I am wrong about potential of this company and stock), but from now on - it will get worse.
You will be keeping XYZ2 ( not a laggard anymore, but -40% overnight loss which you truly were not able to sell, since it gapped down right on the market open),
so you are keeping your looser, because "it is too late to sell" ( no such thing - sell it and forget it - you already lost!), guess what - it gets even worse from here - you are so terrified to see XYZ2 go down another 2%, then another 3% that you completely stopped to pay any attention to other positions and red color is all over your portfolio.

Am I making it up? If it is more convenient for you to think so, then think so.
But the truth is - if stock lags when peers outperform there are only 2 possible outcomes
1. ( best case scenario) - laggard will bring your portfolio's return below where it could be
or
2. (not so pretty) - laggard sooner or later will wipe out all your profits, demoralize you and as a result sooner or later you will go to the poor house

SELL LAGGARDS

Happy trading!

P.S. Almost forgot to tell you - SELL LAGGARDS

Thursday, February 01, 2007

Really short post

There is nothing much to say - major top is still in a process of forming
Few long ideas added on Members Site

(LMNX) (IMOS) (CRYP) (HEES)

and (ZOLT) - very questionable, but interesting...

GUARD YOUR PROFITS!

* Above stocks picks ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE JUST BOUGHT OR SOLD!!! *
* I POST STRATEGY FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE ON THE MEMBERS PRIVATE SITE *