Sunday, March 29, 2009

Rolling over?


This is just a beginning...

Photo by Jim Wilson/The New York Times

No need to confuse stock market pop with economy improving (or standing ANY chance of improving any time soon - for YEARS to come) - if you do that, you are, most likely one of those people who always confuses the lower edge of your stock chart with the lowest price for the stock...

Saturday, March 28, 2009

We are all [socially] deceased…


We The People Stimulus Package

The Second American Revolution


And now for something a little bit more “Market Related”
Latest Jim Rogers video interview. Jim Rogers was live on Fox Business on March 26, 2009.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

How much S&P500 rally left?

Have not had much time today to do detailed analysis (just came home), but here is what I think will happen:

/ES will close tomorrow under 825.75, will spend next few days in between two red trendlines or will retreat to 801.50 area, and in April "trending up" will follow (it is not necessary straight way up, it is just that it will "drift higher", anyhow - as of now it is pure speculation - no proof of having trend up exists yet).

Still there is a danger that if in the next few days /es will dip below 801.50 on daily close and stay there for 2 consecutive days - rally will give up substantial part of recent gains (it is very unlikely from my point of view, but it pays to have all option open)


For tomorrow morning most likely scenario will be "short 1:20AM

Intersection (S&P500)



P.S. For my TOS buddies - I was banned from ThinkOrSwim Chat for bitching about not being able to trade when I really need to.

Monday, March 23, 2009

"Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?"

[This update was sent out today at 2:40PM to recent contributors of Trading to Win]


Harry Callahan: I know what you're thinking. "Did he fire six shots or only five?" Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, and would blow your head clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?

You better feel lucky if you bought at the bottom and sold today, may be you are VERY LUCKY and will have a chance to sell tomorrow during first hour - it looks like party is temporary over - this Trade Signals scan does not look too good for the Bulls short term.


Summing it all up

Sunday, March 01, 2009

/6E EUR FX Futures possible reversal.
Chart of /6E FX EUR futures as of today - March 23rd 2009


Monday, March 02, 2009

End of the world - LONG PORTFOLIO


Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Farewell to the King (Dollar)

Chart of UUP as of March 3rd 2009

Chart of UUP as of today (March 23rd 2009)


Thursday, March 05, 2009

"I really can't tell you why all the bearish arguments are wrong..."

Chart of /ES S&P500 index futures as of today March 23rd 2009

(Vertical yellow line is Monday March 9th - "BUY" DAY)



Well done Dave, I see everyone really appreciates your work and uses it wisely to make money. Great.
Special edition "What's next with the rally" going out tonight to those who "appreciate"

Sunday, March 22, 2009

What is better than MONEY ?

Over the course of my life (almost 50 now...oh no, don't feel sorry for me - it is not that bad to be almost 50... not THAT bad, really) I've come to realize that a lot of things in life are better than money and right this morning when I woke up at 5AM for no good reason other than being "not so young adult" - I decided to create small list of things that are better than money.

True love.

That I had in my life - twice.  First true love back in kindergarten borrowed my favorite book and I never got it back.  No biggie - that was just a book...just a book grandfather gave me and so happened that he died just few days later and that book was all I had left from him.  Not a bad price for having experienced true love first time in my life.

Second time true love lasted longer - firstly in the shape of true love and I was happy to spend a lot of money to make her even  happier, and then some years later - in the shape of true hate ...and I still spending a lot of money to make her happy...well I have no choice now - Judge was NOT nice...

True friends

I've had and still have a lot of real friends - at least those who never borrowed money from me.

Dream job of your life

The one you do not for the money, but because you love what you do and you know your boss really appreciates your efforts and creativity and you are not worrying about monetary aspect at all - money will come if you deserve it...  Then you see a lot of new VIP faces and begin to question your rightness - few days later you decide to quit and that makes your boss temporary upset because he has to use what's left of his brains and decide if he has to hire 3 people (at 1/3 of your salary each) or 4 (do the math) or, may be, just keep the money.

Happy "Golden Years"

When grandkids are already out of your house, your kids finally call you more than once a months because they lonely too by then, you live in the fully paid off house...and you don't sleep nights because the local government keeps raising property taxes - obviously they are trying to keep up with your constantly rising retirement income.  Anyhow - why in the world would they call that "Golden Years"?  You cannot walk, you cannot eat, you cannot of the very few things you still can do - you peeing - all the time - may be that is why you are not sleeping.

Good healthcare

America has the best healthcare professionals in the world - no doubt about that in my mind, you just have to find them.  With a little bit of luck (or just after changing over 20 primary care physicians) you can get medical attention you deserve - and you do deserve attention for obscene amount of money you will pay for that.

Just Justice system

When you don't have to prove that you are innocent and it works the way it was thought out to work based on "presumption of innocence" - you look confused, shall I explain what that is?  It is when Justice has to prove that you are guilty and not vice versa.  Not even speaking of amount of money you will waste if you are so unlucky to have to deal with mindless machine that cares only about bail/court fees money and supplying new inmates in order to pay salaries to state employees.

OK, now, for those of you who has not hit "unsubscribe email" yet


Next post I will dedicate to one fine young woman ( She might be as good looking as she is smart - thou I have not seen her... yet, but as I said - I am almost 50 and most of "young women" are "fine" for me now) who, right the day when I started publishing Trade Signals, sent me an email with a lot of questions like:

"What are those signals?",

"Can I produce these signals by myself?",

"Can I apply those signals to any stocks and not just ETFs?",

"Can these signals be used on any timeframe?"

and so on - she demonstrated desire to MAKE money instead of sitting on her fine ass (As I said I have not seen her yet - that Lady, not her ass) and bitching about lack of thereof (lack of money, not lack of ass).  And she received confirmative answers to all of her question (and I was not just being polite because of her charming personality)

For those of you who would like to get a head start - here is the hint

As for scans I use (I have coded these scans into Worden StockFinder) - you will have to be continued... for now - using these scans I can say that some of Gold Miners look like a daaaam fine ass... ehh ... I meant SHORT!


P.S. For those of you who are wondering if that fine lady will be upset for me bringing up word "ass" one too many times - I have received explicit content to do so. After all - that is a free publicity for her.

P.P.S. I hope that I was not overly "explanatory" in this post - I just had to make sure I was understood, my readers in spite of the fact of being subscribers of financial site seem to be "just a little slow" when it is about opportunity to make money... but I hope even "slow ones" were able to recognize perfect timing of 

Saturday, March 21, 2009

ThinkScript Haven

For those of you who are fellow ThinkOrSwimmers I thought knowledge of existence of this site


would be highly beneficial and in many cases it will give you "Tools' Edge" (Just an "Edge" - no Holy Grail in trading)

The fine gentleman running that site is as good in coding ThinkScript as in his knowledge of technical analysis and he is providing for very limited donation what other software platforms charge obscene amounts of money.

I would HIGHLY recommend to become "perpetual donor" - it is only $50 AS OF NOW ( I will personally advise Eric to raise amounts ASAP - his work worth way more than he values it. And "NO" - I have no monetary relation with his business)

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Trade Signals Explained

Since TRADE SIGNALS were made publicly available I have received number of email asking me to explain "what is that and how it works".  My schedule was quite hectic lately and I plan to provide some level of clarity on usefulness (if any) of these signals.

Abbreviated answer would be (for now)

  • "Sell"    - possible momentum change OR sideways consolidation
  • "Buy"    - same as above
  • "Buy C" - potential trend phase end (Might produce trend change right away or might be followed by "Momentum Phase"
  • "Sell C"  - same as above

As of today, most major ETFs are/were on track to confirm daily Sell signals (see corresponding dates on the right), but /ES (S&P500 index futures) after hours is attempting to recycle daily Sell - that tells me that instead of partial retrace of latest uptrend market might attempt to hold current level - we might see sideways consolidation for the next few days.


P.S. Thank you to everybody who appreciate my hard work (or hardly working?) on this website and Real Time Day Trading Chat and contributed to the cause by ringing PayPal Donate button.

I plan on "locking" Chat in few weeks - test drive it while it is not password protected.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Cash is position too


In spite of my conviction that 779.50 is a high probability reversal point for /ES (S&P500 futures) we might be up for "surprise" - latest TRADE SIGNALS indicate that REVRSAL TIME will be around Thursday/Friday of this week.

Proceed with caution

Monday, March 16, 2009

Day Trading /ES off an Hourly Chart

Number one:  Don't you even think about criticizing lines' colors on that chart.

Number two - I've done everything possible to avoid explanations of how to fill "the right side of the chart" - no art needed...



Number three:  "YES" - all drawings were on that chart long before today (except for ugly blue trendline on the right side - it was put there yesterday).

(CRS) or "Smarter than a box of parrots"? (A.K.A. Fast Money)

Fast Money's "Parrot number 3": "Oh-ho, it is all bad out there for metals manufacturers, look at (STLD), it is only getting worse, oy vey..."

(CRS) - what they do:

Carpenter Technology Corporation (Carpenter) is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of specialty metals. The Company operates in two business segments: Advanced Metals Operations (AMO) and Premium Alloys Operations (PAO).



Trade PLAN: Within next 2-3 days I would expect (CRS) to move slightly higher, most likely to $16 area, after that it will retreat to $14.50 area were I will start buying it for a longer term trade - many months in duration and I intend to hold it for as long...for as long as trade will continue to make sense.

When trade does not make sense for me anymore? Fair question - here is the answer:

Trade does not make sense when any of these is true:

a.  It loses money - more then 5-10%

b. When it is not losing money, but not making it either (that includes "underperforming")

c. generate signal opposite to the one trade was based on

d. will close on weekly chart under $12.64 (that is one of my requirements to this particular trade)

Stop by when you have nothing to do at work - if you have trading carrier in mind - we have Day Trading Chat room at Paltalk:

Chat room address is

At the current time I am evaluating alternate real time chat provider offering more options, more reliable platform, better granular control, desktop sharing etc - this upcoming version of chat will not be open to public - please, if you are interested in participation - please, reply with "expression of interest" (consider cost involved and benefits provided before just blindly replying "interested" and never "enrolling")  Test drive "free version" while it is sill open to everybody.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

In case if you missed...

Market is in the rally mode 3rd day in a row...yeah, today was a consolidation - it is a healthy part of the rally.

Not much to say, I'll let comedians to do it for me (as we know in corrupt societies comedians are the only people allowed to say the TRUTH )

Cramer - EVERYONE WITH BRAINS has two words for you ".... you"

That's right

It is a disgrace that Cramers, banks, CEOs, FED - EVERYONE can shamelessly take advantage of people who don't know better

...and people continue to wave the flag...when enough is enough?

End of rant...

Why for the love of all mighty do they call it "FRENCH" fries?

How many children is enough - 10 or 14? No income verification for that - why not...especially when you are young, healthy and 14 years old...

What do I hate more - "stroboscopic" commercials or companies paying for that annoying crap?

Definitely end of rant now...

You feel better about market now? No more "Tea Party" talks? Of course you do - you always feel satisfied when "they" take away 95% of what you have earned and then, when "they" "give" you back 10% of what "they" took - you feel good, don't you? Could be worse, could have gotten "nottin" back...

Don't you wish sometimes you have just robbed the bank and stole some of 99.99999% of money they lost anyways? (They had to get that money from somewhere - don't you think that was YOU they got it from?). Imagine how good you'd feel now bailing them out with your money you stole from them they stole from you...wait, I lost it - I need to start over....

Sleep well, don't you worry - tomorrow might be a better day and you might even get corporate email that "there are some food leftovers in the kitchen" - rush in!

Am I still ranting???

Monday, March 09, 2009

Find "it" in pictures...

Firstly, I have to say with Cramer's intonation:

"Bear Stern is fine..."  - "What do you want from me - I am just a cable guy..."

Tonight I decided not to labor my tired pointing finger (the one I use for typing) and you will have to find what these charts have in common and why it is important. (Inspired by Keirsten from forum )









Now I might pretend that I have no integrity and say: "We are FINE..."


Friday, March 06, 2009

This time is no different, never is, just takes longer on the way up...

Louis Yamada Has 1175 Target for S&P 500 Index (Transcript)

July 11,2008 [The DAY The Oil has PEAKED ]

KEENE:  Are you in the $200 oil camp, just here in twenty seconds?

Louis  YAMADA: Well, unfortunately we do have a statistical number out there. But oil has reached all of our targets from $67 to $80 to $100, and $125, and even $140.

KEENE: Where's your target right now?

Louis YAMADA: Well I think you're probably going to get a little consolidation. But we have one little bit higher target at $150, as long as it holds above $120. But the thing has to consolidate at some point.


Trading To Win
June 11, 2008

[ One month before oil peaked and Yamada expressed her "confusion".

USO was $112 that week, with all time high of $118 on July 11th and /QM futures at about 148 ]

DavidDT:  Just a quick note on OIL - this is / might be a very good week to go short/get out of long positions. I think so because all the hopelessness and fear all over TV, public restrooms ( glad I don't have to use those too often) and due to purely technical reasons ( set of not widely known extremely tweaked by yours truly indicators), plus one more reason Stated by Morgan Stanley - I'll just repost what I posted at TradeKing's forums ( I am not affiliate of TK, so I don't care if you like them, but I AM an affiliate of Worden TeleCharts and Blocks and you at no additional expenses to you might open TC account using the link on the left side or just tell them magic number 638 ) few days ago ( read below):
" My hat off to Morgan Stanley on OIL
posted 06/08/08 01:38 PM | Viewed 104 times
It is not often that major brokerage house tells you "when to sell"
That was what MS just did ( as oppose to GS $150-200 price target for oil in "some future" )
MS by saying "Oil will be at $150 by July 4th" clearly sends out a message for those who can figure it out - SELL OIL BEFORE JULY 4th when seasonably unfavorable time for energy stocks/resources starts. ( which IS the end of June ).
Even if hysteria will change the normal flow of the energy markets this time - at least MS sent out clear honest message - tighten up your stop by then. Bravo MS!
DavidDT "


March 6th, 2009


For your weekend enjoyment take a look where we are now and think very hard about "great investment hype" - even in the "good times"

Here is the link to the great find of Paul from

Below 1966 Levels

That is exactly what I have been arguing with dimwitted confused propaganda inflicted bagholders A.K.A. “investors” ever since the beginning of times.
One would wonder - why American educational system stinks? It is easier to lie to people who don’t know better.


Still double guessing if this is a bottom?.. Stay tuned...


Thursday, March 05, 2009

"I really can't tell you why all the bearish arguments are wrong..."

"I really can't tell you why all the BULLISH arguments are wrong; all I know is that I'm shorting hysteria"

[James Rogers]

Not only stock market keeps sliding for the last 20 days (never mind convulsive jumps to the top of descending hourly channel), but out of 20 days it opened gap down 7 times...SEVEN TIMES - that IS hysteria, if it is not - I need to reassess my views on rational/irrational - that will not come easy.

So, 693 has been breached again, it most likely will be retaken back tomorrow, but it is not an utmost importance question now - while market was sliding, new buy signal was generated and is due to go in full force tomorrow. Not to mention that next week completing BUY signal. As I mentioned before - time is more important than the price, I think - it is TIME now.

It is not for the faint of heart, it is not for someone who has no discipline to cut losses when "theory" is not working...

That hourly channel has gotten REALLY boring, everyone is trading it (just like 810 "long term support" area on SPY) - it is time to "surprise" traders and take market to a different level. Last few days were not particularly good day trading days for me, I am longer term "long biased" - kept "spitting against the wind" - cost of doing business and trying to catch longer term move.

We will know soon...

P.S. XLI caught my eye today (it is not on my "daily watch")

It has completed trend change/exhaustion signal on weekly and about to post "momentum exhaustion" on weekly for the next week - along with many other ETFs...daily buy is pointing to Monday...

This was/is a brutal week - my long positions are bleeding - that is definitely too huge of a falling sword to try to catch.

In CNBC we trust - God help us

After a day like today (nothing unusual to see wild swings/drops before market turns...yes, I still on "the bottom" bandwagon) we all need some good (and not even that good of) laughter.

My "love" to CNBC dimwits is widely known (to CNBC original dimwits as well as to "guest hidden agendas speakers") - I think you might enjoy watching this video.

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Farewell to the King (Dollar)

Regular readers probably remember one of the posts where I used word "Farewell" - post as of April 7th 2008

Stock Market Sectors Watch or Farewell to the Sick Bull

As I stressed many-many-many times before (I am getting old - repeating words one too many times indeed) - NONE will ever be able to tell you "The Price" - price where selling will start and would not stop for a very long time and vice versa. It is "TIME" component of prediction that MATTERS. On  April's 7th 2008 (SPY) closed at 136.96, one month later (SPY) posted highest close ever - on May 19th 2008 it closed at 143.05 (intraday high was 144.30).

Yes it took over a month for prediction to materialize (one month accuracy is damn good for timing of prediction for collapse of this magnitude with drawdown on the short side of only about 6%) and as you all know now (SPY) lost over 50% since then.

I am not "tooting my horn" - I am trying to communicate time and again the very same ideas - patience is a virtue, margin is evil, time does matter , price is secondary.

Now, I am posting 3 charts - /DX FX Dollar futures, UUP Dollar Bullish ETF, and, previously posted on group's site chart of /6E - EUR FX Futures.

For lovers of fancy colorful technical indicators I included triple stochastic, triple cci, valuechart - stare at those for as long as you'd like - I don't use those...but my analysis tell me this:

Within the next few week (may be as soon as THIS week) something might happen which will send Dollar down, EUR up and market soaring. It is all lining up with trade signals )






And don't forget to remind me to keep building long UNG position

Monday, March 02, 2009

End of the world - LONG PORTFOLIO

Yes, I know, it is all bad, it is all hopeless, economy is in ruins, financials are insolvent, Obama is a lefty villain, investment bankers are criminals, houses worth more when they burnt to the ground, there is no demand for oil and it'll never come back, yada yada yada...

But today acting on what I thought was just an impulse I opened long /ES position @707.50- instead of "closing all at the market and hiding in the bomb shelter (as I mentioned in prior post) .

I have no idea if I will not change my bias tomorrow morning - what do you want - I am a spineless market listener - market will change and I will follow in pursuit of profits.

But here is what I did today after market close - I looked over roughly 500 charts and decided to create "example long portfolio" - it will be permanently displayed HERE for myself and readers to judge if I was correct in my expectations of bottom (even intermediate bottom). All securities listed were "bought" at today's closing prices - good enough for few months experiment...

It just might turn to be a "good day"


On February 23rd I posted finalized analysis of /ES here is the same chart I used, no modifications.

Today /es almost touched the bottom of the risk zone ( the new one, bottom at about 693) and there is an hourly buy signal in progress, which, if not disrupted, will finalize by the end of the day.

In spite of my plans to go flat, I opened /ES position at 707.50 which I intent to hold overnight. 693 is to be watched closely - if breaks - I am out

Sunday, March 01, 2009

/6E EUR FX Futures possible reversal.

This is a chart sent to contributing readers at 6PM EST today

(with detailed arguments and explanations)