Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Farewell to the King (Dollar)

Regular readers probably remember one of the posts where I used word "Farewell" - post as of April 7th 2008

Stock Market Sectors Watch or Farewell to the Sick Bull

As I stressed many-many-many times before (I am getting old - repeating words one too many times indeed) - NONE will ever be able to tell you "The Price" - price where selling will start and would not stop for a very long time and vice versa. It is "TIME" component of prediction that MATTERS. On  April's 7th 2008 (SPY) closed at 136.96, one month later (SPY) posted highest close ever - on May 19th 2008 it closed at 143.05 (intraday high was 144.30).

Yes it took over a month for prediction to materialize (one month accuracy is damn good for timing of prediction for collapse of this magnitude with drawdown on the short side of only about 6%) and as you all know now (SPY) lost over 50% since then.

I am not "tooting my horn" - I am trying to communicate time and again the very same ideas - patience is a virtue, margin is evil, time does matter , price is secondary.

Now, I am posting 3 charts - /DX FX Dollar futures, UUP Dollar Bullish ETF, and, previously posted on group's site chart of /6E - EUR FX Futures.

For lovers of fancy colorful technical indicators I included triple stochastic, triple cci, valuechart - stare at those for as long as you'd like - I don't use those...but my analysis tell me this:

Within the next few week (may be as soon as THIS week) something might happen which will send Dollar down, EUR up and market soaring. It is all lining up with trade signals )






And don't forget to remind me to keep building long UNG position