Friday, November 28, 2008

In Consumer We Trust?

[ original photo location ]

Roughly 70% of this economy is built on these people buying things they don't need and spending money they don't have. They call "that" sound economy?
Do these people look like they have no closes to wear, no TVs to watch, no food to eat?

Saturday, November 22, 2008

"Windows XP does not save user settings" - FIXED!

What fixing bug of Windows XP has to do with trading?

A lot! It was driving me totally and utterly insane for quite a while, when after yet another Automatic Update from Microsoft all in a sudden any customizations I made to Windows layout were not there after reboot. Taskbar gone, menus reordered, windows sizes and positions set to some ridiculous forms and shapes.

Finally, after long, really long google search and combining multiple recommendations I found solution which worked (fingers crossed)

For tech savvy solution is below (registry access is needed, save before you tweak it - one wrong move and your system might become non-operational)

Good luck...

Windows Registry Editor Version 5.00




"BagMRU Size"=dword:00001f40

"BagMRU Size"=dword:00001f40

Friday, November 21, 2008

Yet another "mechanical" day


Really boring and totally predictable intraday action.

5AM countdown advised "sell on open"

1:20Pm to 2:30PM buy countdown coupled with buy setup hinted on release of some "good news".

Pivots contained ranged trading quite efficiently - what a boring, but very profitable day.

Order Book
Time Order ID Description Status
11/21/08 13:28:13 ******** BOT +16 /ESZ8 @752.25 5
11/21/08 11:50:45 ******** SOLD -6 /ESZ8 @758.50 5
11/21/08 11:21:49 ******** SOLD -10 /ESZ8 @751.50 5
11/21/08 10:53:39 ******** BOT +10 /ESZ8 @751.00 4
11/21/08 10:30:24 ******** SOLD -10 /ESZ8 @754.50 4
11/21/08 10:23:47 ******** BOT +10 /ESZ8 @756.50 3
11/21/08 10:22:56 ******** SOLD -10 /ESZ8 @760.25 3
11/21/08 09:59:52 ******** SOLD -10 /ESZ8 @759.00 2
11/21/08 09:58:36 ******** BOT +10 /ESZ8 @756.75 2
11/21/08 09:46:21 ******** SOLD -10 /ESZ8 @768.00 1
11/21/08 09:39:17 ******** BOT +10 /ESZ8 @763.75 1
11/21/08 02:04:07 ******** SOLD -10 /ESZ8 @776.00 yest pos.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

"Hope" is gone...time to start over

At the time when the last TV personality whore who could not care less about our money for as long as they were getting paid for whatever they were told to say by supervising crooks (long sentence? I don't care), so at the time when hysterically giggling Erin Burnett, nonsense talking Chinese Girl, bullish all the way down curly none knows about trader Peter Costa ( list goes on and on and on) - at the time when they stopped talking nonsense like"America #1" and "Financial Capital of the Known Universe", at such time market is getting close to the bottom.

Time to stop pumping borrowed prosperity, time to stop admiring cheap Chinese goods and start building factories in US, time to kick out Nardelly who screwed up at Home Depot, got obscene amount of money for that and resurfaced at Chrysler because he knew someone, time to stop admiring Warren Buffet (GS is $50 now - great deal he's got at $115) and Brad Pitt for one on a MILLION chance they were given, time to outcast Gasparino who "believes in Big Dick Fuld.


Time to ask ourselves: "Whose fault was that? "

Time to be honest and say: "OURS"

WE let them DO THAT.
WE let them rob us.
WE let them get paid for nothing.
WE borrowed from THEM in order for them to get richer.
WE let THEM outsource our jobs.
WE let THEM leave us with no retirement we paid for.
WE let THEM ask us in an emergency room if WE have money to pay.
WE... WE... WE...
When are we going to stop being stupid lazy politically inert self deluding nation?
When are we going to stop playing "democracy"?
When are we going to stop saying: "Everything is really bad, BUT WE live in the GREAT country"? Huh??? Compared to what? Haiti?

Oh well...time for some charts - there is some light at the end of the tunnel there, some major ETFs completing TDSetup Buy this very week - up we go next?


Transports TDsetupBuy


Small Cap - TDSetup BUY



Financials - DTSetupBuy



Energy - TDSetupBuy 3 weeks ago - holding TDST - buy



Dreaded $VIX (why pay attention after they started to trade options on VIX and totally skewed data?)

Not counting "super Spike" - it stalled at the current level - time to retreat?




P.S. I am biased indeed, I've got stopped from multiple bullish positions (long calls and short puts) with losses and BIDU long trade initially totaling to 20%(!!!) of my portfolio is off 25% pulling portfolio down over 7% in just one week!!! That is too big of a risk I took and steep price I paid ( Am I talking Yoda?)

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Following the wisdom of Tim Knight

One of my readers just spread the word that Tim Knight from Prophet Charts (also chef in charge of Slope of Hope blog) just proclaimed that: "This is a bear market and it will be here for years and any bull will be torn to peaces for years to come"

I listen
who have
difficult time
in time


Just a thought - I love and respect Tim Knight just like I loved my squealing girlfriend back in kindergarten.
And, take my word for it - he is definitely more honest and smarter than Jimmy Pump Boy Cramer

Recap of posts from contributors site Friday/Monday

(BIDU) 1st update

Setting buy order for the first 1/4 of intended position at 138 area.


BIDU has completed TDSequential Buy Countdown on weekly (cannot be qualified as TDCombo due to first count bar being lower).
Possible TDSetup Buy completion 3 days from now on daily.
Acceleration bands were penetrated on downside (negative), but looking at prior similar scenarios - that penetration resulted in return back into the Acc. Chanel)

I might be opening long position within next hour ( watching possible completion of TDSetup Buy on 15min for better timing)

Possible move up

In this market fundamentals and technicals don't tell us much on a day to day basis, but worth noting that multitude of stocks just have completed TDSequential Buy Countdown day or two ago and no lesser number will complete TDSetup Buy tomorrow.
I think markets are due for a meaningful pop.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Possible move up

In this market fundamentals and technicals don't tell us much on a day to day basis, but worth noting that multitude of stocks just have completed TDSequential Buy Countdown day or two ago and no lesser number will complete TDSetup Buy tomorrow.
I think markets are due for a meaningful pop.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Leave Kashkari alone!!!

Stop slamming that poor guy with honest face and clean record (that is why he was picked up to be a patsy)

Don't blame the messenger - get to the roots and weed them out!


Same old story time and again - nothing will ever change...

Thursday, November 13, 2008

One hell of a day

As always, picture worth a thousand words.

From starting out as 97:3 decliners:advancers day, after rejecting recent lows, ignoring INTC "gloom and doom" forecast, after hedge funds managers McCarthy style Congressional nonsense, after inability of soon to be history El Presidente Bush sound waves to bring market down more  - burst of volume and finish with the ratio decliners:advancers 6:92 (2 SBUX and BEAS unchanged - why BEAS is still there?). And no sweet candy for hopeful from FED?

Just the way I like it...



Recap of posts from "Regular contributors site" (Nov11/12/13)

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Closing QQQQ Nov28 calls

will be trading around, with cost 2.06 selling at 2.60 hard to pass
(holding Dec28)

Posted by DavidDT at 11/13/2008 03:51:00 PM 1 comments Links to this post

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

(NICE)...could be nice

Was flipping through the charts today without much enthusiasm, then just to break latest "play reversal routine" decided to run quick scan from good old bull times.
Glad I did - I, most likely, will be buying that Israeli security software solutions (if memory serves me well)

(NAT) attracted my interest as well on the long side, but glad I looked at the news - has "Cramer's kiss of death" all over it - still will be keeping an eye on it.
P.S. One of the readers criticized me for posting my day trades - by the time it is in readers mailboxes a lot of things might and DO change.
So very true...I stand corrected...

Posted by DavidDT at 11/12/2008 10:10:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post


Since my anxiety level reached previously known mark ( "the hell with everything, sell all, get on cash, go to Morocco for 2 months...")
therefore we are at yet another bottom
and I am buying lots of QQQQ Dec28 calls @2.65

Posted by DavidDT at 11/12/2008 03:24:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Sold to close GLD Nov71puts

cost 1.80 sell 2.40 (33% profit 4 days)

Posted by DavidDT at 11/12/2008 10:56:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post

Buying QQQQ Nov28 calls

for day trade when QQQQ will be in 29.20 - 29.40 range in the next 20-30 minutes.
Desired fill price under $2

Posted by DavidDT at 11/12/2008 10:31:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Some ideas I am looking at

long (soon?) PFE, OMCL, HOLX, SGP, MRK, BMR(have position), HUM, MOH.
INWK looks intresting long for some reason.
Short candidates: MYGN ( I think this one is ready), ISIS(?),
gold miners: RGLD, GG (off25?), KGC

Posted by DavidDT at 11/11/2008 10:13:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Fallout Shelter anyone?

The world as we knew it has ended - at least if you listen to "Financial Info-tainment Shopping networks"

Attempts to call stock market bottom raise McCarthy style reaction: "Do you belong to the organization profiteering on selling stocks higher and covering lower?"

The search for Al-Qaeda is over - everyone knows now that no terrorist could do to the country what uncontrolled greed has done.

Bulls are wiped, bears are totally indecisive now - none has an answer: "Where to?"

No hope, no perspective, no waving the flag.

Japan looks like a sweet place now.

Just one essential component is missing to effectively call the real bottom - the day when major information source will interview people building bomb shelters on their backyards.


Monday, November 10, 2008

New 3x ETFs

In the world of de-leveraging some still look for good ole leverage plays

(volumes are still very low...)

If you’re a 300% bull type needing a bit more leverage …




Daily Exposure Target

Large Cap Bull 3x


Russell 1000


Small Cap Bull 3x


Russell 2000


Energy Bull 3x


Russell 1000 Energy


Financial Bull 3x


Russell 1000 Financials


And if you’re a 300% bear looking for inverse juice …




Daily Exposure Target

Large Cap Bear 3x


Russell 1000


Small Cap Bear 3x


Russell 2000


Energy Bear 3x


Russell 1000 Energy


Financial Bear 3x


Russell 1000 Financials



World has not stopped?

Posted on "Regular Contributors Private Site" November 5Th 2008

More charts, more opinions, more often, dedicated email support, and personal trades posted!

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World has not stopped?

  According to CNBC China slowed down, they don't eat, don't grow, don't produce, don't ship.
Same goes for the rest of BRIC.

And forget about USA's grows prospects for the next 2 years.

It is all might well be true and Baltic Dry ship index collapsed to the levels not seeing since 2001.

The more "they" talk about "it" the more I want to do something in spite of everything being so bad.

May be I am just biased ( I am a perpetual bull, unfortunately), but somehow Coal Producers and Shipping Companies look very interesting long with clearly defined risk ( I am not sure that is this market any risk might be "clearly defined" - the best we can do is to trade small and honor stops no matter what) 









Friday, November 07, 2008

Recap of today's posts on "Regular Contributors Site"

"Regular Contributors Private Site" (Here is how to join)


Friday, November 7, 2008

GS might stage rally on Monday?

Just a thought - that is why after the close.
Have a great weekend

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 03:59:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Speculation Friday - (ICO)

The WORST of any coal company, but somehow I have a gut feel ( or think I do) that it just might be decent replacement for cowardly dropped BTU position.
Bought 1/2 @3.20

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 03:55:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Tough decision to make

Decided to hold all new positions, including few GLD Nov71puts ( @1.80) over weekend.
See you Monday

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 03:43:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Bidding few GLD Nov71puts

delta .39
IVol only 44%

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 12:18:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Buying XLF Nov13 calls for day trade

IV 81% ( ok)
delta .71
bidding @1.52 ( might move higher)

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 12:07:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Bought to close INTC Nov13puts

Bought to close INTC Nov13puts @.24( avg sell price .44.5)
45% profit overnight

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 12:03:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

So much for the "bad math skills" :)

Yesterday's miscalculated QQQQ down target when I had to leave after 2 PM, order was set for 30.17 was not reached by just 23c, well, money not made in this market better than money lost. Bummer... (should I be watching QQQQ action I would buy 10 Nov31calls @.80+ when qqqq was at 30.50 reversing to the upside - another good 60% profit missed.
BTU stop at 28.07 set due to the same reason ( business meeting) took me out of otherwise profitable trade ( today's high 30.06, so reasonable sell would have been 29.80 - on $20000 position (about 700 shares) - $1000 not made.
Due to this morning meeting missed sell point for EXM at about 11.40+ - another $1000 not made.
Why am I talking "coulda-shoulda- woulda" when it makes no difference?
Just to remind myself, that is this difficult market with sudden changes, positions MUST be monitored constantly and I broke the rule by "setting it and forgetting it" - IDEAS were good, execution smells badly
Being right on the market does not automatically makes you money...
Oh, well, I am back home - may be will spot something to trade - thou doubt it - not willing to hold anything over weekend ( since my downside target for QQQQ around 29.4+ was not reached - at the point where it is now - I don't know what direction it will go...


blue dotted line is CMF14 ( Chaikin Money Flow ) centerline - looks like more distribution to me.

solid blue - is CMF

on hourly yellow line - my expected down target yesterday.

on weekly yellow - important zone of support

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 11:52:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post

Hunting QQQQ Nov31 calls

Unfortunately, have to leave the house for few hours ( still have not mastered PALM based ThinkOrSwim trading platform, which IS cool, but not for my eyes)
Setting up DAY conditional order to buy 1/2 of intended position in QQQQ Nov31 calls when QQQQ last <= 29.82
Stopped out of BTU position at28.07 yesterday (loss 28c = 1%)
Holding EXM (cost 10.90)
Hope to be back by noon
Good luck.
P.S. If anyone using software with built in DeMark studies, I would appreciate such person posting his/her take intraday at real time chat

Posted by DavidDT at 11/07/2008 08:58:00 AM 0 comments Links to this post

Thursday, November 6, 2008

BTU starts to worry me

Most likely will sell at break even ( or will set stop at 28.07)

Posted by DavidDT at 11/06/2008 02:33:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

QQQQ acting in line with expectations


Posted by DavidDT at 11/06/2008 02:29:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Selling few more INTC Nov13puts @.47

Hope to be back by the end of the day

Posted by DavidDT at 11/06/2008 01:54:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

"Why EXM long?"


I hope this chart speaks for itself, don't hesitate to ask if you have to

Posted by DavidDT at 11/06/2008 01:22:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

Bidding for few $VIX Nov55put @4.20

Also, sold few INTC Nov13puts @.42

Posted by DavidDT at 11/06/2008 01:15:00 PM 0 comments Links to this post

$VIX intraday

So far looks like $VIX might stop climbing after 2PM.
It plays well with "sell before weallllly bad Friday's jobs number"
I will be monitoring QQQQ calls I intend to buy - will have to decide if it has to be done today or tomorrow first thing in the morning.
The problem with "buy today" for me is that I will have to leave for busyness meeting at 2PM - might not make it back in before 4PM.
So far I am setting up conditional day order to buy 1/3 of intended QQQQ Nov31 calls position when QQQQ last = 30.17

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Trading QQQQ short term

Mr. Chambers of (CSCO) painted gloom and doom picture after the close today.
I have never had much respect for his "stock market forecasting abilities", at least not for my trading purposes.
The last time he spooked the markets on February 7th 2008 his "effect" lasted for about 2 weeks, after that (QQQQ) started powerful multi week rally.
Not so Good Chambers morning to all.

Let see what chart is going to tell us now.
QQQQ closed right on 20MA. CSCO will bring QQQQ down more tomorrow, most likely to the vicinity of $30.80. Friday's jobs report will push it down some more in the morning, and, hopefully QQQQ will touch $29.30+ area. If it will start recovering from there I will be all over Nov30/31 calls for short term trade. I would say QQQQ will be forming inverted head&shoulder on daily ( left shoulder Oct22).
This trade provides reasonable stop under $29 ( I doubt we get there).
On weekly chart QQQQ completed TDSetup (buy) last week, it usually takes 2-3 weeks for price to reverse ( plays well with "Chambers' effect")
If long trade will play out, I will enter short trade (Nov30/31 puts) IF QQQQ will start going down from $33.40 area (which I think it will)
So far on weekly chart QQQQ seems to be starting to form what might turn into "inverted roof bottom" - now it is slightly too early to speculate...

I will be posting my opinion on shippers and some other stocks (to answer questions of regular contributors) on "Regular Contributors' Site" tonight ( Here is how to join )