Saturday, February 28, 2009

Sleepless night...stock market crash..???

First off - what I am NOT.

I have NO ego, I am NOT rigid, I am NOT eternal Bull, I am NOT eternal Bear, I don't care if I am right or wrong - I trade to make money, if I did - that is good enough justification for me.

Trading is about ODDS and staying in the game (as risk management and preservation of capital).

That being said... I've been hinting on "THE bottom in progress" for the last few days. February monthly close brought good news and bad news.

The good news is - MONTHLY buy signal was generated on SPY and DIA (weekly buy signal is almost completed) - AND "risk zones", since monthly February close is the lowest, just became way narrower with the higher bottoms. (compared with risk zones that might have been generated based on huge monthly range of November 2008)

The bad news is - daily buy signal failed miserably (as well as prior common supports - which, I personally don't care about much), it was irresponsible of me to expect daily setup to have any effect whatsoever after decline of such magnitude.

I did not sleep all night - I was convinced we are at the close proximity to the bottom, suddenly I realized that I was biased - still over 50% long on IRAs since few weeks ago, tried to imagine myself 100% on cash - all of a sudden I see possibility of 593 on SPX and 57.29 on DIA in just a few days - that is crazy. Sliced and diced data and charts and all I get is 50/50 chance of crash or rally - drives me nuts.

I can tell you this - I was able, many times in the past (not just once) to pick major market turns. (It is all there - in the legacy Trading to Win blog's archive).  As of right now - I do believe this is the bottom in the making, BUT - the problem is - as with any long term bottom - "naming the price" is close to impossible. I do think that March will mark the bottom - the question is - "at what level?" [Do NOT ever believe to ANYONE who will tell you that STOCKS HAVE GOOD/BAD PRICE -PRICE IS A HIMERA, not matter how it has been "calculated", whether based on "fundamental make belief" analysis OR technical "Art Analysis" - PRICE has NO VALUE, only TIME MATTERS]

After Friday's close odds favor much lower levels than I was able to calculate prior to month of February close (see post as of February 23rd), they are much lower than any move I'd like to get involved into.

Based on what is possible now - this is what I will do Monday morning (IF it will not be too late) - I will close every single position in every single "not day trading" account - AT THE MARKET soon after the open. The huge move is coming and I don't want to get caught on the wrong side. I will then put on neutral deep out of money put/calls collars for about 3% of my portfolio value 2 months out.

Charts speak louder than words - here they are (I am NOT saying that market WILL plunge to the bottom of the risk zones - grey boxes, I just don't want to be the part of it now, not even on the short side - at this time there is a real possibility that clearing counter parties will not be able to honor obligations...  Somehow I sound just like James Rogers right before 1987 crash - and I just did what he did this Saturday morning - I went to the banks and took a lot of cash OUT, as well as some content of safe deposit boxes - it is on its way to my "Warrior nephew" in Montana now).





I will update "Trade Signals" tonight.

"Live to trade another day"


P.S. Promised analysis of Natural Gas will have to be postponed.

Visit day trading room at PalTalk from 8AM till "last man standing" at

Try NOT to use you "good" email when registering for PalTalk, it has been reported that number of spam emails increased right after PalTalk registration.

Friday, February 27, 2009

Two "Agry" charts

Just thought "Agry" word might be a good combination for "Ugly" and "Agri"


Firstly, today's /ES ($SPX futures) cash settle close was of "some" disappointment to me.

I understand, it is last trading day of horrific month, big players are not getting involved in order not to get accused in "end of month mark up",low volume, it is easy to to move the market at any direction, but still - close under 739 is not to my liking. Unless Monday close will push /ES back into prior "risk zone" - new zone described in prior posts will be in play - it is never over until it is over...we'll see.


DuPont A.K.A. (DD)

None is looking at the "brighter side" of being supplier of agricultural  chemical/genetically modified seeds - everyone is scared of too much "constructions chemicals" exposure.

Well, it is right were it all started during the last recession back in 1990 and for long term investors (did I just said that? "Long term investors"? Oh my...) it might be an interesting play at $16-17 range.

2009-02-27-DD-MONTHLY AgFeed A.K.A. (SEED)

This is a "time decay free" play for risk averse traders. For my taste it worth 3-5% of your "speculative portfolio" and few weeks of your time.


That is all for tonight, will try to do a post on Natural Gas over weekend - it is ripe for prime time show...



Below are two charts that were sent (on the night when I posted "Down with BioTech" ) as my way of saying "Thank you" to regular Contributors of this site - to people who understand that my efforts and time spent do come at a price - not a "sticker price", but the price of my time...

Vertical red line is Feb 13th (day after email went out) - both were profiled as prime short candidates.





Have a great weekend

Market / ES Update

There was not much to say during the last 2 days, /ES is behaving exactly as was expected, this post just refine support resistance zones.

Today's selloff was lead by "unusual suspects" - HealthCare, Bio Technology, on a positive side - "guilty by association" sectors, such as Regional Banks, GSEs, Energy - were continuing to move up - bottom is getting real close if it is not here already.

/ES back into downtrending channel (it would be irresponsible to think that channel of such duration might be broken from the very first attempt, so pullback is healthy (and I bet lots of people were selling into "future 40% C news").

Support zone on hourly demonstrates "the worst case" scenario, if there will be "panic culmination" selloff - the very low it will reach on intraday basis is 733.75 (as oppose to 739 on daily close). On the way up on intraday basis 779-786 area will be resistance - not for long thou.



Tuesday, February 24, 2009

/ES after close update

We got expected bounce (not saying that it is over - just need to have a "game plan" no matter what happens next)

What might happens from here? I am a little disappointed by the magnitude of this move, it leaves very few options - this is what I think might happen.

Bearish case: in overnight session /ES will trade as high as 778-781 and by the open (or within first 30 minutes) moves down to 768 - back into descending channel (I posted charts multiple times) - it so, chances better for downside move to the lower side of that channel.

Bullish case: /ES flat overnight, opens flat, stays flat or moves slightly lower and THEN attempts to break out of descending channel - this is my "preferred way", it will create consolidation much needed for producing last "intermediate bottom" during this or next week.

There are 2 very strong resistance areas overhead (800 and 835) - no use to move up without consolidation.


Monday, February 23, 2009

...bigger than U.S. Steel...

"Hyman Roth: If I could only live to see it, to be there with you. What I wouldn't give for twenty more years! Here we are, protected, free to make our profits without Kefauver, the goddamn Justice Department and the F.B.I. ninety miles away, in partnership with a friendly government. Ninety miles! It's nothing! Just one small step, looking for a man who wants to be President of the United States, and having the cash to make it possible. Michael, we're bigger than U.S. Steel."



As much as some of us have anticipated inevitable fallout of United Stated as the "World Industrial and political power" - it is still sadden me indefinitely to witness its demise...

As for opening quote from Godfather goes - I always wondered - was it said about mafia or corporations? Pardon me - I am getting older, I forgot it is THE SAME.

Sad, so sad...

Follow up on yesterday's post

/ES day low today 739.75.

Prior risk zone from 1/21/09 has a "bottom" at 739 - which "coincidentally" is November low for /ES - interesting.

Today new risk zone was established from today's low of 739.75 all the way down to 693.

This opens up 2 possible short term scenarios.

First: since prior risk zone bottom was not violated - it is still a "primary support" (risk zone has nothing to do with November low of 739, BUT it adds psychological support as well) and /ES is about to reverse to the upside.

Second: IF 739 will not hold (on daily close) - new risk zone is in play with the bottom at 693. Today's action did not feel right, there was something artificial in it, but the fact that /ES did not hit new lows without any intervention of PPT tells me that the bottom is damn close.


Not to overlook that /ES has bounced "miraculously" right off the bottom off the current channel in play - that adds validity to "immediate /ES reversal to the upside" (if not - my expectations of Friday/Monday bottom is "temporary postponed").


P.S. These are huge ranges in play - very difficult to trade it calmly - but if this is the business we've chosen - we have to deal with it the best we can.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Plan the trade, trade the plan and always know your "uncle point"

It is not so often I talk about particular trading strategies, it has always been difficult for me - I tend to follow my trades at all times (at least most of the time) and make trading decisions based on the most current market info.

I'd like to talk about how I see trading the bounce (if it will happen indeed) and use /ES as an example. If my "game plan" would be not be clear or overly vague - don't be too hard on me - as I mentioned many times before, I trade "gut feel" way more often than any technical indicators I ever used...

Down to business of talking...Obama has positive influence on me, I might start "talking" more - hope I will not start making dumber decisions.

Friday's low on /ES was around (that is right - "around" - I am not obsessed with precise numbers in stock market) 752.50.  First big grey box on daily chart is what I call "risk zone" (how I define is a topic for separate conversation).  739-795 low/high of that box.  After spending few weeks above risk zone, /ES penetrated it to downside, but volume did not support that move and without touching lower side (739) /ES put hammer-like candle on daily (with a little help of "propaganda machine" with nicely timed "news" at 1:10PM when effect of such news was destined to be amplified by "pre-existing technical conditions".

From now on multiple trading scenarios are possible (all prices are closing prices).
    /ES will go up with max upside target for this move at 866.
    down to the lower side of risk zone (which is less likely since Friday's candle low was not that far away from the bottom of risk zone)
    It will stall at the top of risk zone (795) for few days.
    last case is slightly more bearish - /ES goes down without stopping at 739, if that happen - next risk zone will be defined with lower side at about 727 (It is close to impossible to calculate this number before tomorrow's closing number, but it might be damn close)

Depending where and in what direction I will choose to trade /ES next few days - these scenarios/levels will provide me with "template" reactions - in this market none has enough time to calculate odds on the fly.

If "more bullish" scenarios will not materialize this week there is a possibility of heading down to 660 area during the next 2-3 weeks - HAVE AN EXIT PLAN NO MATTER WHAT. I still do think that February - beginning of March will put in a bottom for strong rally.


Stop by during the day to talk trading real time at

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Mr. Gibbs - who are you talking to?

Do you even realize that you are just continuing Obama's election campaign, but now you are talking to a different crowd?  Mostly everyone who is watching you now have undisputedly better knowledge of the subject than you do - and most of people you are lying to are neither idiots nor playing idiots - they are not being paid to do so as you are.

President Obama - you bought yourself a victory by selling "Change" - I still hope that you are not selling "The more things change the more they stay the same".

Read and listen to what diligent financially responsible hard working Americans are saying now - may be you will not have to train army and police force to deal with "domestic disturbances" like during Vietnam Era. Start here - I am posting the link to the letter (one of the many similar letters) I found on one of my fellow bloggers site...



White House Press Secretary Defiles The Office of The President

Stock Market Sectors Trade Signals

I have started new "Buy/Sell Signals" spreadsheet.

It will be updated on a nightly basis, but it will NOT be sent out in emails.

In order to see updates, please, visit  Trade Signals Page.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Ashes to ashes? Today is The Day?

Market takes expected dump overnight, /ES is very close to the bottom of the risk zone (742) - will today's move signal start of meaningful move up? What I see is that /ES forming buy signal for Monday (it might possible start recovering even today), and Gold (/YG) today has a SELL signal. Manage your risk and we will all "live to see another day".



Meanwhile enjoy the music and remember that Chopin not just mourned for dead, but celebrated life.



Chopin - piano concerto No.2

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Tea Party is inevitable :-)

The Bottom

Not to beat on the dead horse, but for the last few month I tried to communicate with my readers and people I know and care about that market is in the range, no matter how wide that range might be which signifies one and only thing - it is establishing the bottom.

Few weeks ago I set the date - options expiration week for February. As time went by I see more and more signs that we are reaching the bottom, bottom for buying solid companies at the rock bottom prices. Don't get me wrong - I am NOT talking of CitiGroup which is gone for shareholders (may be "C is a value Girl Karen Finerman still likes it - but I never cared much for her "professional" opinion or of any of CNBC clowns with hidden agendas)

I spent most of the day today talking on the phone and sending emails trying to convince my relatives, friends to buy, buy, buy. To buy solid companies in energy, commodities, semiconductors, transportation and so on fields - I hope I succeeded and they bought. At least Long/Ultra Long ETFs such as QLD, SSO, DDM, DBO, USO, UNG, OIH. (If you noticed UYG is missing from that list - for a good reason, as well as most emerging markets ETFs - except for EWZ may be)

The worst argument I can supply is that if market will continue to head lower after next week - none is going to need any money for a long long time - we don't really need money now for anything, but paying for brain dead dimwits who have plenty of free stuff now they should have never bought on the first place. I just hate to be FORCED to make charitable donation to idiots. Oh, well - I need to think "ulcers" and try not to think of how screwed all fiscally responsible people I care about are.


Disclaimer: This website may include stock and market analysis. Any opinions, ideas, views and statements expressed here are opinion only, subject to change without notice and for informational purposes only. Trading stocks carries a high degree of risk. It is possible that an investor may lose part or all of their investment. Accuracy and timeliness of any information is not guaranteed and should only be used as a starting point for doing independent additional research allowing the investors to come to his or her own opinion. Nothing on this site is to be considered a buy, hold or sell, recommendation. Any investments, trades and/or speculations made in light of the opinions, ideas, and/or forecasts expressed or implied herein are committed solely at your own risk, financial or otherwise. Results are dependent on market conditions, timing and trading style. Translation: You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Not anyone else. YOU.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Day Trading Chat Update - UP and RUNNING


    Quite a few people reported difficulties getting into the chat room, here is the best was to fix it:

  1. Register for Paltalk first

    You can do it here: (web based express works with PC and MAC and LINUX)

    Or you can download PalTalkScene (works with PC only )

  2. Chat room payment is still being processed, and since it is a free room now - it is not always open, admin needs to be logged in at all time to keep room open - that will be taken care of as soon as premium subscription kicks in - room will remain open for as long as THERE IS AT LEAST ONE PERSON IN THE ROOM.
  3. As of now (free room) - number of simultaneous users in passcode protected room = 10. That limitation will be lifted after "Premium status" confirmed. For now - "First come first served"

    Group address is

    Please, register as a member of the group.

    You can upload charts, videos, create forums' topics - since chat room does not have "history" (history/scroll back starts from the moment you entered the room and it is gone the moment you left - not such a bad idea for day trading where 5 seconds is an eternity) - forums is the best place to ask "sticky question" or post persistent information.

    Chat room address is

    Password 0212

    Add room to "favorites rooms" for easier access in the future.

    There is also a free mailing list

    Once in the room (and familiar with PalTalk interface and features), PLEASE, select font "NORMAL" color "BLACK" (In order to save your settings in PalTalk MAIN window, click "File", "setup preferences" - you'll figure it out from there. Colored fonts should be used "by community approved traders" for easier references.

    Voice chat

    I am not much of a story teller, possibly in the future I might start using that option, as of now, unless it is something of utmost importance - refrain from using voice chats in the public chat room (you can always use it in "private" out of chat room conversations with other members)

    Video - same as Voice, please.

    Room allows for high level of moderation, please, try to maintain productive trading environment at all times, bans and restrictions WILL be used after fair warning. Foul language, excessive mumbling, disclosure of ANY kind of personal information of any fellow member will NOT be tolerated.

    This private chat room is being paid for by Trading to Win - please enjoy it and let others to enjoy it as well, spread the word - we always welcome fellow traders with good ideas and never reject those who are just good listeners. Trading is difficult enough as it is - "United We Stand".

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Open Letter to Fellow Day Traders of 'XXX' Broker (and those of CNBC speaking "Known Universe")

Dear fellow Day Traders.

It took years of search for a lot of us to find home - one of the best brokers in the wild and unpredictable world of eternal fight for becoming a better trader, and, when we found it and made ourselves at home - "change" has come, and change is not always for the better.

As we all "anxiously await" not previously anticipated arrival of 7 millions of new 'XXX' trading platform users - we need to answer some questions, get prepared for the worse case scenario, in short - 'Plan B' is in desperate need to be created.

We have been "forewarned, therefore - forearmed" - now time is as good as ever to "arm" ourselves.

There is nothing we can do with anticipated trading volume burst, data feed problems, orders delays, customer service degradation ( My hopes are that, knowing brilliant people in charge for "XXX', a lot of questions WILL be addressed in a timely manner) - what we CAN and SHOULD do - is to preserve "online brotherhood of collective thinking/acting, maintain attitude of helping less experienced traders to achieve adequate level of performance in order to survive murky waters of trading.

Chat feature provided us with this option for a long time now. Unfortunately, unmoderated and overpopulated rooms as of late have been witnessing a lot of unproductive noise introduced by "not entirely trading dedicated newcomers", I myself recently got involved in savage outburst of ridiculous finger-pointing and lost my famous cool for few seconds for what I apologize sincerely.

In light of the above, I have decided to proceed with "plan B" and create premium chat room in PalTalk.

Here is a list of features Premium PalTalk room provides:

  • Real time chat room (no need to "refresh" or wait)
  • Voice chat (will be used in moderation by "approved" members with proven track record only)
  • Video - will be blocked for now, unless at the certain point of time the need arises in "desktop sharing", but then PalTalk is not the right tool for that.
  • Passcode protected - only members with "password" will be able to enter the room - this will guard against "trolls" (free room has a limit of 10 "passcode" members, premium room has no limit.
  • Highly moderated room - I, myself, or any of appointed admins, will use our full power to ban even unproved members in case if they will cause much distraction to trading community.
  • Always open - premium room (as oppose to free version) will always be "open" - 24x7 - come in share ideas, communicate with "likes"
  • Staging area for posting charts with immediate access by all members. (Flash tutorials, software manuals, trading methodologies ideas might reside permanently in such area)
  • PalTalk also provides "IM connect" tool - Yahoo, AOL and few other IM's might be connected from within PalTalk application.

Lack of one feature I am not particularly happy about - history/log is not kept - or may be I am still not aware of that or may be it is just "free room" limitation. But in fast changing trading world 5 seconds is a long time and I can see some benefit of not having long log with obsolete ideas.

Number of participants will be limited to reasonable number, probably no more than 100-200 (As of now I already have more than 40 emails with "strong expression of interest"

Having limited number of participants will have multiple benefits - one of such will be more open sharing of tested and true personal trading strategies. I, for one, will never disclose working strategies I was searching for years in front of thousand of lurking "XXX" chat traders, sorry ladies and gents - when everybody trade the same strategy - that strategy does not work.

This is not a final plan, it is still open for discussion, we still need to involve more skilled traders to participate. I, for one, would LOVE to see "DarkHouse" in "leading team", his experience, brilliant ideas and cold running way of trading is indispensable for even the most skilled of us. (ParrParr, BirdDog, T-Gunn, Lakai…and A LOT of others will be indispensible to this chat)

If created (well, it IS already created and I intend to proceed with the room at least for the benefits of -my site readers) such room will NOT be free - only for initial "introduction" period, "free" has never been appreciated (as Warren Buffet said - "money inherited never done any good to anybody") there will be a low monthly fee, let say "$N per month" ($20-30 sounds reasonable - for the price of few Starbucks Coffee Latte benefits might prove far outweighing the price tag attached), there are "monetary and time spent costs involved for me.

In order to protect personal email addresses I'd like to urge you to subscribe to mailing list for improved communications.

Feel free to communicate this idea to any traders who you think might be interested.

Those who would like to "test drive" new room are welcome to visit it at

Temporary password for the room is "0212"

This is a "free" version of the room - I is NOT open 24x7, but I will try to keep it open most of the time.

Only 10 "passcode" users can be in the current free room at a time (read bulleted list above)

If you like it - email PalTalk ID to me - I will start "building" the list.

Further details will be provided...

Thank you

DavidDT of Trading to Win

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Down with BioTech

Was flipping through the charts of different sectors, then concentrated my attention on BioTech - based on variant perception that if "long awaited rally" will happen, counting on total lack of new money foolish enough to commit to this insane market - the money will have to come out of somewhere and biotech was outperforming sector for quite a while now - let's "hammer it down" my friends :-)

Here are two BioTech stocks which I think present very good risk/reward right now. (I was short REGN for few days now)

and I'll be buying March puts on them tomorrow first thing in the morning.








To have some fun I might start playing long swings at this point - (CSUN) seams to be ripe for the taking without paying options premiums :)



P.S. Thank you to all of you who generously ringed "donate" button after today's market insanity :)

/ES end of day update

That was a crazy day when only traders who KNOW could survive.

If you look at "Day trading /ES (S&P500 Index Futures) " pot as of 2/11 7:20PM you will see that in spite of not closing within my target range - /ES still closed precisely at 832.25 which is 23.6% Fib on that chart

Now - I need a lot of vodka - if you want  to sent me some - you know where "donate" button is.

Follow up on /ES post

I've been adding to long position, so far market is in the process of retest of ascending trendlines of higher lows (from 1/20/09) and on track to produce bullsih reversal by noon.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

The "Golden Age" of Gold?

People expected gold to be safe heaven - not always working

Traders expected gold to fall - some - to rise.

Now a lot of traders throwing out a towel after, what they think of a "breakout from widening descending wedge which theoretically thought of as "bullish". But the fact is - it is bullish  in about 52% of breakout and, on another hand - busted breakout produces spectacular fall.

Lets look at the chart

Weekly...breakout did not happen this week - it really happened 3 weeks ago and based on moving about "risk zone" it might have 3-4 week more to go up. Not so far

Lets look at the daily chart.

the last accumulation day was 1/26 (Don't ask me how I know - I've been trading for so long that even if I knew - I forgot already)

Up until today - there was clear distribution into the top which reached culmination on failed breakout above prior highs (yellow line) on huge volume (no - it is NOT breakout on huge volume - it is a failure, busted, finito, tutta kaputo, konetc..)

Depending on tomorrow's action which might just confirm busted breakout, I will be opening short position in /ZG (That would be an addition to today's highly speculative Feb/March GLD puts position.

To add to the point - gold miners are about to collapse, no matter where commodities will be going...just throw a dart



Day trading /ES (S&P500 Index Futures)

Quite a few readers asked me lately why I have not been posting swing trade ideas for quite a while.

The answer is simple - with this range bound market as of late there is not much "juice" in swing trades and precise timing of such trades is extremely difficult (at least for me)

So I was day trading /ES for the last 2 months (not scalping , no "200 1 tick trades" - from 5-10 minutes to few hours or even days, well one may say that I am still "swing trading" and in  way it is true)

When I day trade I use (just like for swing trades) set of not widely know/understood indicators heavily sprayed with my personal interpretation.

Below is a chart of /ES (5 days 30 min displayed) with Fibonacci Retracements. Those of you who use Fibs will question righteousness of not using extreme highs/lows for placing Fibs on the chart. Exactly - I do not care for true high/lows, but rather I try to find points where significant "market mood" change took place. How I find those? One of the ways - I use open/close/mid day candles to start with. What then? Then it gets really complicated. not to mention some woo doo I practice, so I'd rather not to go there.

The bottom line - I believe tomorrow /ES will end the day between 841.50 and 850 levels. (Of course double retest of the lows of symmetrical triangle on hourly chart from 1/21/09 helps to identify direction - in my mind it will be up, not even mention the end of yet another round of Congressional Witch Hunt to please John Q. Public)


Later tonight I will try to post my thought on Gold - you heard on the street(s) that it broke out of widening descending wedge on weekly charts and everyone closed their short positions. Not me - I loaded up GLD Feb/March PUTs today when GLD was at 92.90sh.

Thursday, February 05, 2009

Save the live...puppies anyone?

Just received an email from my friend Brandt From Trade Guild.


"If anyone is interested in a lab/mix pup, email me ( ) and I'll hook you up with Merissa. She lives in GA, but may travel to meet anyone half way.

Note: forwarded message attached."


"Scott (my friend) rescued 6 black lab (mix) puppies out of the middle of the road on Saturday.
PLEASE help me find them homes - otherwise, it's Animal Control - which means they only have 5 days.
We've bathed them, sprayed them for fleas and wormed them....but we can't keep them.
They are currently in a kennel in my basement since I don't have a fence.
I've lost count of the number of rescue groups that I've contacted, only to be turned down due to no room.
Please check with every dog person you know to see if they need a puppy"




Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Where will the mighty Mr.. Market be on Feb28th?

 Bulls, don't worry, be happy.

End of post...



No, that would not be funny and not fair at all - so here I go...again

Look at SPY monthly - that line in the sand that has been there (on this particular chart) for many months (even before November 2008 was put in place) - SPY still is  above 825 area - and I believe it will stay there for a while - and it will finish February 2009 @960 area.

Why? You all know old adage "The left side of the chart is science, the right one is an art" - this is what I think will happen - time will tell if I was right.


It is difficult to see bull scenario behind insane moves as of last 2 weeks, but look better.

Last 2 weeks - every new bottom is a higher bottom (ascending red line)

After 1/28 top - 2/2 bottom wave down, next move up retraced precisely 61.8% (Blue Fibs)

After 2/2 bottom - to today's (2/4) top another retrace of 61.8% - that was a fast one (red Fibs )

Where /Es is now? You guessed back in the 825 area.

CSCO reported, guided (well, provided full absence of guidance to be precise) - we  LOVE Chamber's talking - for some reasons dimwits from CNBC use his opinion to project on the financial markets and they wrong every single time....

Sorry Elliot Wave fans, no matter how you recalculate your curls - this will not be so highly sought after by the bears of united new world order "wave 3 down" (or whatever the hell its name is in your highly subjective world), but it is a beginning of "wave up" with completed pullback (you give it a good name and let me know)