Thursday, December 28, 2006

Just a short LONG list

Last time this year


See you all after New Year
Happy New Year!!!

New Year resolutions...

We all humans, we all use dates to make important decisions, we need excuses like
"After New Year I will ..." - and those dots are just what I'd like to talk about.
But first lets have a quiz, simple one, "Yes" and "No" answers.

1. Recently you had a "fender-bender" cause that other person stepped on the brakes all in a sudden.
(Not because you were not ANTICIPATING such event)

2. Your kid asked to go to the country fair together and you were too busy studying the stock charts.

3. You lost on a trade because of intense argument with your better half ( Hey, the "other" half is ALWAYS better :)

4. You did not do something in time ( you were too busy watching delayed YAHOO stock quotes) and your boss did not give you a raise.

5. For your portfolio you created 2 separate watch lists - one for stocks in green and you watch it religiously all the time just for the pure pleasure of it, calling your neighbor to show this list and be able to say: "On average those stocks are up 5%",
the second list which is substantially bigger in all respects, such as number of stocks and negative percentages, but of course, no more than -50%, of course not - your broker most likely sold that deeply margined position to be safe, and that SECOND list is the one you prefer to never look at, agonizingly hoping that somehow, miraculously you will get your money back, sometime, not soon, but sometime - and you quit smoking in order to be able to live long enough to see that moment

6. You come home from work ( let say 7 PM EST) and you run to look at your portfolio and then you say: " I knew it was going to go down - I had to sell yesterday!" instead of "SELLING YESTERDAY"

This list can go on and on so I'd rather stop right here before I become even more cranky than I usually am.

THE BOTTOM LINE - If you answered "YES" to one or more questions, then the "dots" in unfinished "New Year resolution" MUST be replaced with

"After New Year I will NEVER TRADE AGAIN"

After you say that, you might
1. ( Most common one) - BREAK YOUR PROMISE, lose your money, lose your job, family
( SAVE YOU ALL GOD FROM ANYTHING LIKE THAT - I, myself, almost lost everything many years ago )

2. Really stop trading ( tough choice - I know )

3. Find the BALANCE between trading and life, family, work, all that really important non material stuff, re-analyze what you did wrong, stop hiding from reality of unavoidable losses, stop blaming someone else for your mistakes, in short "learn to stand the heat" - in this case

Many Happy Returns, Best wishes to you and your families in New 2007 Year.


P.S. For those of you who are still reading - my "New year resolution" would be to start series of posts dedicated to more detailed explanation ( my understanding ) of
"Trading rules"
( I cannot promise that I'm going to start posting videos explaining "why and how" I picked "that" stock - for me it is close to impossible to answer, for me technical analysis are broken down to 2 main elements
First - very basic chart patterns, some technical indicators to confirm and, plus, many years of mistakes. See - I'm not even good with math!)


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Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Short post or "Stay alert"

Nice day on the market - for institutions when they liquidate huge positions, a lot of blind demand. Oh well, as long as Bull is here - stay with it, but keep an eye on "market leaders" and ask yourself - "Can I call RIMM and AAPL market leaders after the way they behave recently?" Remember - leaders break first, then the rest will follow, all speculative stocks with no profits, no money, just hype...
Good luck and


Having technical problems with new "Members only" site,
so here is a list ( fresh one as of today :)

long: (WNC) (LIOX) <= on pullback (HOV) (LTRE)

"bottom fishing"
(BHIP) (ENER) (NTMD) (CORT) - I would not commit more than 1/3 of regular position to that kind of stocks.

(BBBB) on pullback - current volume does not support price move

(SMSI) back in show - not ready yet to be called "long", but worth keeping an eye on it ( might move after New Year )

Monday, December 25, 2006

New stock list

Following list has been posted at
Trading To Win Stock Lists (MEMBERS ONLY) site
( with entry/exit/strategy )
on Dec 25th at 10:27PM - 2 days ago


short: (EXFO) (TRAD) (IPSU) (RAIL)

In order to access new "MEMBERS ONLY" site you will have to send request to Trading To Win email address. "Membership" is "donationware" based.

All stocks profiled on Trading To Win Stocks Lists (MEMBERS ONLY) site will appear on public Trading to Win site with 2 to 4 days delay.

In order to facilitate navigation/loading time of Trading to Win public site all affiliate links will be removed after New Year.

Current portfolio holdings will be posted on Trading To Win Stocks Lists (MEMBERS ONLY) site at the time when position is open.

Friday, December 22, 2006

Site Contributors

Thank you for making this site possible by generous donations, stream of fresh ideas and just plain love to the Great Game of Stock Market!

Mark A. NH
Cindy K. CA
Rob Z. TX
Carol M. TX
Alex V. NY
Diana S. Spain
Michael G. NJ
Jon R.
George C. NV
Alice K. FL
Tom F. KY
Leon A. IL
Frank J. W. VI
Alan J. CT
Kathy B. MA

And many more...

Thursday, December 21, 2006

JSDA or a secret behind "The Cramer effect"

Was not really going to write any more "educational" posts till New Year, but just saw something which really winded me up, so lets talk about ... Cramer.
Who would expect me to talk about Cramer who serves as an entertainer to "1999 like zombies crowd"?
Well, I just would like to point out that so called "Cramer effect" is not caused by extraordinary power of persuasion of Mr. Cramer and ( to a lesser extent ) by stupidity of people who follow his "advise", but by very good team of technical analysts.

JSDA appeared on my scans few weeks ago satisfying my scan criteria: small float, reasonable institutional holdings, nice short interest, close to 52 week high ( I cannot say that I agree about Mr. Cramer statement about solid grows - JSDA missed badly last quoter).
On December 15,18,19 chart of the stock which was poised to go up formed "stepping" pattern ( I'm not really good with fancy candlestick patters, so you'd have to forgive me - what I see and recognize is based on my many years of mistakes ).
Dec 20 stock broke out gaining 14% on above average volume, next day - really big volume, I just wondering as WHO was buying - but stock does not move much and sit sooo close to 52WH where overhead resistance is nearly non-existent.
And here it is 6PM and here comes "Johnny", oh, forgive me - JIMMY, toting JSDA as next HANS and, you guessed it right - stock takes of in after hours trading.
Look at the chart ( I even decided to post the chart which I don't do very often, so you'd see what I saw ).

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

I'm in New York state of mind...

Yes and no,
to be precise "I'm in Holiday's state of mind..."

As you've noticed I've not been posting too often last 4 days and here is why.
One of "The Rules" says: "No revenge trading" and I normally try not to trade too much during the last 2 weeks of the year, what has it got to do with each other?
Let say I made money for the year already, then I'd be trading to make "just a little bit more.." translation "I have not made as much as I could I want to catch up!" Hmm..
Or Let say I lost money for the year or just did not do well, then I'd be trading in desperation, often not having good reason for a trade except for fear to be down for the year- not good, not for my taste at least
Plus with all that holiday running around, visits to relatives and friends, constant calls, packages and all that noise usually accompanying holiday season - I'd be destructed and pressured to rush in and out of the trades.
As silly as this "restraining from trading last 2 weeks of the year" sounds, - it works for me.
What I usually do last 2 weeks - I try to get a feel of where market will be going and open positions which I'll hold over New Year.
And as of today - I'm ready for 2007 and my portfolio mostly stacked with...that I don't have to disclose UNLESS I post any of the stocks I hold as a daily pick :) AT THE TIME OF WRITING.

Normally I would not post symbols I'm about to post, they all have one thing in common - "bottom fishing", but at this time of the year it is possible to get away with that, here they are:

long: (FORD) (MECA) both are very speculative, of course the worst that can happen - they will go to ZERO ( Not in one day that is for certain :)

I might post more stock lists this and next week, may be even tonight - if not -

Marry Christmas
and Happy New Year!

Saturday, December 16, 2006

How to deal with the "Losing streak"

Dedicated to my friend CHELOBES from TradeGuild - good trader, great guy, better father and even better person.

Firstly, I need to make it clear - I don't want to scare anyone away, BUT - loosing is an integral part of trading. PERIOD.
Does not matter "how good YOU are" or "how cooperative market is", everyone WILL have to deal with loosing trades. ANOTHER PERIOD.

There are multiple ways of dealing with losing position
  • a. Cut your losses at the certain -% point, most widely known advise is 7-8% on closing basis. It is very important - and really easy to do if you don't have love affair with a piece of "electronic paper" going on - I, personally, never do.
    As a matter of fact I am so "not connected" to what I trade - that I may close every position I have just solely for the "I want to go on vacation" reason. Not even a LONG vacation, I might want to fly to Bermuda for a weekend to play golf with my former "BlackJack Buddies" ( They play, I drive that ridiculous car around the course - I hate golf ). Why? I don't want to worry about "how market and my portfolio is doing while I'm having fun. How do I have to relax if I'll be holding Treo in my hand?

    Another very important reason for closing loosing trade A.S.A.P. is that it is close to impossible ( for me it IS impossible - I'm too emotional, not about loosing money, but about "been wrong" part ) to THINK CLEARLY when agonizingly watching you "hard to come money" disappear. GET OUT, CALM DOWN, RETHINK, REGROUP.

  • b. Stop trading after 4 or 5 loosing trades in a row ( this is another popular advise ). If nothing wrong with you something is wrong with the market - slow down and figure out "WHAT" is wrong. Mostly it is just another "switch" and you have to sit it out.

  • c. My personal "strategic" favorite - variable position sizing.
    I don't trade "number of shares. NEVER. This is an AMATEUR thing! 1000 shares of .50 stock versus 1000 shares of $50 stock WILL put you in the poorhouse. PERIOD.

    I trade "amount". My initial position during the course of "normal" trading is 1/6 of my total portfolio value ( no margin considerations ). Lets call 1/6 of portfolio value "X amount".

    So, when the time is right I'd open position for 1*X
    If market will confirm I might add in increments of 1/2*X up to 3*x on the way of my trade ( depending on long or short ), but never will add on the way opposite to my trade - ANOTHER SURE WAY to the poorhouse.

    Here is an example.
    I open 1*X position at $20, it goes to $26. Since I always want to keep ( this is my personal number ) at least 1/3 of the profit on the trade - I have $4 "safety margin", here I might add 1*X at $26 to the total position size of 2*X, but here is a kick - IF TRADE START TO GO AGAINST ME - I will have to close it at $24 - no questions asked and keep 1/3 of the trade profit.
    The good news is - if trade continues to work the way I expect I'm squeezing few ( not double or triple ) extra $$$.
    The bad news is - as I keep adding to moving position - my "safety margin" becoming smaller and smaller and I have to watch it constantly. The max I can go to is 3*X ( This is "swing/short term trading talk", not a "day trading" - Day trading is a totally different ball game, I do day trading from time to time, but NONE of the picks on this site is intended for day trading - all of stocks I post are "short term")

    Now I'm getting to the "loosing" part. If I have 4-5 loosing trades in a row I might:

    1. Use "b paragraph way" and take a break ( this is an extreme measure in case if I feel like "vigilantly" - and the only outcome of "revenge trading" is BIGGER losses. While I'm off the market I'll try to forget that market exists and spend most of my "at home time" listening to the very rare find I fell in love with many years ago.

    2. My preferred way - I will decrease initial position size to 1/2*X or even 1/3*X AND I will be out of loosing trade way before 8% rule, mostly at about 2-3%.
    This way if I continue to be confused by market action my losses will be limited. That is what some famous trader ( Jesse Livermore? ) called "probing"

    I prefer this way since market is not constant, nothing is, market is full of talented and rich players, way better than I am, and since I don't want to "beat the market", but rather "flow WITH the market" and using this strategy helps me to get back "in the flow" with minimal damage. ( If I use #1 "stay out of the market" way - I risk missing the major "flow" and getting back in just in time for another "switch"

  • Thursday, December 14, 2006

    "Suckers rally"?

    Pardon me saying that, it is more difficult for me to say than for most people, I am eternal bull, I believe in progress, I practice O'Neil way of looking at the markets, but... somehow "all time high" with 99 points move with NO SUPPORTING volume does not look so good to me, beside - I knew that it will happen today, of course I did not know magnitude, but as you can recall "weather forecast" predicted "good day on the market ( tomorrow morning will be positive as well - till noon ? )

    Every expected and hoped for breakout was quickly and orderly brought down by steady selling into the strength ( that is what I was doing too), looks like major/experienced traders do not think it'll last ( upside move it is )

    Still, while we don't have confirmed move to the downside I have more longs on the watch list than shorts - here they are.

    long: (NANX) (RDWR) (SFUN) (SWSI) (VDSI) (CRXL) (EVEP) (FIZ) (GCA)

    short: (LUM) (STKL)

    I'm in the "holding pattern", but will be watching very short term trading opportunities as they present themselves.

    Or, what the heck, may be I'll just take vacation till New Year


    *** Urgent update ***

    I will move my 401K TODAY to CASH 100%,
    I WILL use today's strength to ease up on long positions in trading account ( I was selling yesterday all day long) - market is at "Make it or break it" point and I think it will be "BREAK IT"

    Wednesday, December 13, 2006

    "Weather forecast"

    Of course not, but what would you call it when I say:
    "Tomorrow we are going to have a very nice day ( green day on market)
    sunshine ( stocks over 500M market cap will go up ),
    relatively warm and comfortable ( volatility low),
    it will carry over to Friday morning (session) and then we are going to see some rain ( controlled selloff).
    Next week going to be least to say "un-exiting" with possibility of insulated tornadoes and avalanches.
    Don't forget your umbrellas ( I'm 20% cash now, no margin - WOW!)

    P.S. Almost forgot - "congratulations" - we've got ourselves another failed perfectly good breakout - (TIBX). So much for the moment of glory!

    P.P.S. Forgot again - here is unusually short list of longs:
    (CLRK) (FIZ) (NANX) (CAAS)+ (SWSI) (CCC) above 6.22

    Note: + or - sign after stock symbol is a disclosure of my long + or short + position at the time of writing

    Dreaming IS GOOD

    We just need to learn to interpret and stay with what we are dreaming about, at the end (TIBX) dream was not that wrong after all, but I did not have enough conviction to stay the course.

    10,000 VISITORS

    This morning the event of no lesser importance for this site as reaching of DOW 10,000 happened - number of unique visitors reached 10,000 and it took about two months ( Since this site was listed on Google and other major search engines on October 07, 2006).

    Big "Thank you" to all who visited and continue to visit this site, to people who contributed ideas, thank you to those who supported this site by injecting $$$ generous donations or renovating their library ( or entire house ) using this site's store and I hope you can always find some useful insights helping you to stay the course on the road we've chosen - TRADING.

    Thank you and good luck to all of us!


    Tuesday, December 12, 2006

    Tuesday evening "quickies"

    (FIZ) (NANX) (SWSI)

    and (AVCI) update - unless it is going to move above 7.85 - I'm
    "optimistically cautious"

    Waiting, waiting, waiting...

    WHAT are the traders waiting for? Everyone knows there will be no increase and mostly everybody who has common sense knows that there going to be no hint of "rate cuts", not yet, economy is not THAT bad ( Except for few hardcore speculators who will be dumpung huge speculative positions opened right prior to the FOMC meeting ).
    I expect market to dive for few minutes and go up after - it's been in a "holding pattern" for a while - enough already.
    Waiting, waiting, waiting...

    Sunday, December 10, 2006

    Sunday night candidates

    Sector thoughts:
    Biotech, Nanotech, Commodities, Gold, Indian Stocks, Energy will move to the upside
    Metals and Mining - still have some steam left
    Semis are shaky

    HealthCare still is in the dog house, Retail is about to get there, as well as Big Pharma

    long: (AVCI) (EVVV) (SIFY) (RDWR) (SWSI) (SYGR)
    (IFNY) <== risky (updated Dec 11th 9PM - I thought it was risky and it is, now is NOT the time for that - scrap it!)
    (EVEP) <== thinly traded
    (CCC) - IF it'll move above 6.25 on volume

    ( since I'm not getting any questions - how I play my stock picks, I guess everyone knows everything even without "strategy note" - "no problemo")

    I've been cautious about (CAAS) ( long pick of 1200tec from TagBoard) as a long candidate since Nov 19th, but I'm keeping an eye on it, if it'll be able to move above 11.97, I'd say it might become nice breakout play

    I'm beginning to think "short" looking at (CHL)
    (VAR) still on a short list

    And as always - PLEASE - re-read an article "My Trading Style" - among other things pay attention to "Trade Expectation Lifespan" - as I stressed out in that post - IF TRADE DOES NOT PERFORM according to my expectations under ONE WEEK PERIOD - I CLOSE position even if NOT LOOSING. For example of how it WILL save from losses look at (TRLG) long pick as of Oct 30th, position could be opened on Oct 31, then PPS drifted down, never violating -8% rule, then on Nov 7th it came back up to a break even point
    ( here another rule kicked in DO NOT PLAY EARNINGS!) so that position had to be closed due to 2 reasons combined 1. "break even" - is a laggard action, 2. Earnings. Following of that strategy would help to avoid whopping 28% loss next day ( Nov 8th ).

    The point I'm trying to stress over and over again - follow the rules, price for breaking the rules is too high, money NOT MADE IS BETTER THAN MONEY LOST!

    Here is an example how I EXPECT IT TO WORK: (ASIA) posted on Nov 15th, could be bought on Nov 16th, broke out withing next 5 business days for astonishing gain of 40%+ in two weeks. Worth noting - it all happened AFTER earnings, so those who think that the only way to make quick money is to play earnings are DEAD WRONG ( and playing Russian Roulette with 90% known outcome )


    P.S. Watch "Market Leaders" - run for cover if they will start to brake down!

    "Do I want to have this position?"

    Finding the answer to this question has become more difficult last week, I've been having "uneasy" feeling about continuation of market uptrend, a lot of fellow bloggers dedicated a lot of posts to that subject, I will not be talking about technical indicators, indexes, sentiments - use links on the right side of the page ( These are the market blogs I read )
    I think I found my answer and it's been formulated when I was writing "Breakout Play" post.
    My answer - breakouts don't work as good as I'd expect, I've seen way too many false or short lived breakouts lately. What does it mean? One thing for certain - market is nervous, market lost leadership once again ( Look at (AAPL), (ADBE), (MOT), (RIMM) - they've been straggling last few days to hold the ground)
    Will market go down? I hope market will hold till Christmas, and then it'll go down.
    Correction? Bear market?
    I don't know - what I do know, I'm prepared for action if under attack - in Marines they say: "If under attack, don't freeze, do something, retreat is an action too" ( No, I was not in the Marines, not in this country at least )

    Friday, December 08, 2006

    Good things come when we sleep...

    Never remember what I saw in the morning, so I woke and writing it down now: (TIBX)
    Will figure out tomorrow what it is all about

    UPDATED 12/08/06 1:26PM - forget (TIBX)

    Thursday, December 07, 2006

    "Breakout play" interpreted

    Breakouts... one of my favorite ways to make money...
    Most misunderstood by general public concept resulting in losing money...
    Most misrepresented by institutional advisers / talking heads - in order to take your money...
    Looked at Google Analytics today and saw that about 70% of visitors of this blog come from Yahoo Finance message boards - that means that most of readers, very possible, are beginning traders/investors and due to the fact that 2 out of 3 of my ideas are (or very closely resemble) breakout play - I feel obligated to drill down to details of what it is and how I play it [breakouts].

    "Buy low sell high" - no offense but those who have became affected by propaganda better stop reading now ( not that there is something wrong with value investing - but that is what it is - INVESTING - and I'm not interested in making 9% over the next 20 years, I'm interested in, let say modestly - doubling my account in the GOOD year and not sitting on dead money on the bad year )

    Simply put - breakout is a move out off the top of solid base. ( If base is a "Pennant" top is considered to be upper trendline )
    It happens when stock which was not capable to penetrate "resistance" level ( or, let say - commonly believed "top" price for the stock) absorbs all the selling and shorting and then moves to the upside )

    Good news first
    If you are in the right breakout at the right time - you are going to make money faster than just by buying somewhere IN the base and hoping for a stock to rise. ( or fall ).

    When stock exhausted its upward momentum, you sell it and go shopping for another 10-50% runner.

    The bad news
    3 out of 4 breakouts are "false breakouts" when stock is not capable of continuing upward move due to various reasons, to name a few: market mood change, no buying interest and such.
    What happens after false breakout ( I consider temporary pullback to be a false breakout - temporary ) - stock will go back to the top of the base to form "cup and handle" chart pattern, consolidate, shake off selling pressure, weak hands and move up thereafter OR stock will re-enter the base to become dead money for a while ( if not forever ).

    Important question would be - how to spot real breakout?
    Two most important components:
    1. VOLUME - MUST be at least 130-150% of average monthly volume.
    2. SOUND BASE - you can use link on the left side of the site ( "Chart Patterns" ) and read more about my favorite ( and "safest" if there are such ) bases ( "Rounding bottom", "Cup and Handle", "Flat base", "Pennants" ). When there is NO solid base to break out from - that kind of breakout is more likely to fail.
    VERY IMPORTANT - breakouts out of the short base ( lesser then 6-8 weeks in duration are in most cases prone to failing on the same day even if there is volume increase. I, personally, like to see even longer bases )

    So, whenever I play breakout I prepared right out of the gate to lose 2-4% of my stake - this is why money management and position sizing are SO IMPORTANT. ( For more on money management and position sizing visit Trade Guild Blog published by Brandt A.K.A. BullTrapper - a lot of "right to the point" articles on this subject on that site ).

    When opening position to "play breakout" you cannot "set it and forget it" - you cannot just place stop limit buy order and go away. Why? Since most of the popular discount brokers do not offer mechanism for incorporating price AND volume into your order ( and even if they do ) - it is best to monitor your intended/entered trade closely - this way if it is a false breakout without follow through on price/volume side - you'll have better chances of getting out with minimal damage ( the more chips you save the better your chances of catching real breakout and capitalizing on such ).

    How to spot stocks about to breakout? It is a topic for a different article, which might follow.


    Crude awakening

    This is what I think market is about to face - oil will go MUCH higher.
    If I'm wrong - I'll be very happy - I still have not closed some of my long positions.

    Wednesday, December 06, 2006

    9:00 AM Wednesday morning update

    Futures are pointing to "slightly" lower opening for equity markets and I thought it might be a good idea to throw in few LONG ideas which might present nice buy opportunities today


    I'm stuck in Atlantic City today, played Blackjack till 4AM, left with "even money" - highly unusual for me - I normally win, oh well, like my friend Jobe02 from Trade Guild Blog says: "You cannot win 'em all"

    I'll be staring at laptop most of the day, so if anyone will have any urgent questions - I'll be able to answer in a timely manner.

    Tuesday, December 05, 2006

    SIRI or "My word is stronger then oak"

    Those of you who thought "Jerry McGuire" are correct - same kind of "word". Some of you saw "that" Cramer's show ( circus?).
    Now I have a real question: What are the chances that misleading 'we are on target' statement was not the only 'not quite complete statement' on that show - how 'about 'We are NOT going to merge with XMSR'
    Hmm.. I think - I beginning to believe that merger IS in store.

    "Tonight only" Brandt ( A.K.A. BullTrapper publisher of Trade Guild Investment blog ) will be hosting video presentation on the subject of "SIRI happens".

    Please visit the site of my friend, teacher ( at his young age he achieved more than most people who lived the market twice as long), whose discipline and dedication helps me to stay the course.

    Sunday, December 03, 2006

    Deja vu?

    Do I see (TNOX) again? But this time it is (TRIB) - life will tell.
    Otherwise - did not do my home work, therefore - good night

    Saturday, December 02, 2006

    Helix Energy (HLX) take or "Can we rely on insiders' transactions"

    First - confession.
    No, not that "I don't know anything about market" - I do know "something" and constantly learning, the day I will place my last trade I still will be learning something new about market, because the moment I stop learning and say "I know Market" - mighty Mr. Market WILL send me to the poorhouse. I was broke before, but I don't want to be poor.

    But the truth is - I don't know ANYTHING about OIL and OIL SERVICES, "nada".

    That is why I'm glad that mj76 from TagBoard asked for my opinion on (HLX)
    May be because I posted "reversal alert for (SUF) since they have something in common, no, not just "oil" word, but ...

    Let say that as funny as it sounds: "UNPROFITABLE" oil.
    What am I saying, everybody will be laughing at me - let me rephrase:
    "Hard to get or hard to process oil" - hmm.. slightly better.

    Helix Energy specializes in servicing oil fields just like that - remote locations (deep water) or with exhausted main field.
    ( Speaking of (SUF) - they provide/ still in the process of testing of "Sonockracking" technology to help increase output of usable oil )

    What do I know about Helix?
    Cramer does not like it. Who is "Cramer" - the guy who claims he made so much money on his stock picking abilities that he does not have to work anymore? Verdict - ignore Cramer's opinion for particular stocks, case dismissed.

    Fools ( that is "Motley fools" ) like it - unfortunatelly MFs had less then impressive track record last few years. Are David and Tom still the ones who make "David and Tom" stock picks?

    Merrill likes it? Lehman don't Goldman loves it?

    Since when ANYONE cares about YOU, individual investor, especially "free caring"?
    Or paid "investing / trading newsletters" - why do they SELL newsletters instead of MAKING MONEY on stocks they promote?

    My friend came into my "trading office" on Nov 17th 2006 very upset and started to blame me ( in a "friendly" way ) for misleadingly telling him on Nov 5th that oil has bottomed and it is time to buy into oil and oil services again and now, he says, oil took a plunge yesterday and his wife does not like him.

    What struck me as very odd was not that his wife does not like him ( I would not either ), but what for some people looks like disaster ( my friend ) for others proves that they were right earlier, of course I was able to see Nov 17th as exhaustion day ( prices did not really go down that much, but the volume was huge!)

    And I did not need to know anything about oil, and as I admitted I still don't know much.

    Back to (HLX)

    Missed earnings estimates on 10/31 - no big surprise there I guess, did they warn on
    9/29 or 9/30?

    Float 86M - not to my liking, but not bad

    Institutional ownership 84.6% of float
    - hmm.. they call it "grows stock". I can agree it is a grows company, but how stock will maintain its upward PPS move for extended period of time if big money almost finished to "load the truck" (Should not have touched TV remote on Friday the 13th at 6:23PM - CNBC popped up on the screen, I'm asking for forgiveness of trading Gods now )

    Gross margin, price to sales, PE - yada-yada-yada...

    CHART - now we talking - very nice move last 10 days!!!
    Wait - dismiss my admiration for the company's stock move in the difficult time for oil - OIL (USO) MOVED UP last 10 days! Well, still a good news - it is not lagging, but
    when (HYDL) and (BJS) started to move up even BEFORE oil bottomed and (HLX) just followed reversal in oil prices, tho outperformed in terms of PPS gain due to oversold conditions ( 23% vs about 7% for peers), it makes me worry some.

    It makes me even sadder when I see "off the bottom price" move
    (HYDL) is up 50% off lows on 10/05/06
    (BJS) is up "only 20% off lows on 10/05/06 ( but it never lost as much as HYDL or HLX)

    NOW I'll try to answer main question - about "large(st) insider purchase"
    I presume we are talking about Mr. KRATZ OWEN who bought 700000 shares for total amount of $2,082,500 on Nov 17th

    BRAVO! He MUST know something or he is a greatest trader alive!
    Hold on a second!
    Let me take a look at his transactions

    "3-Jan-05 29,759 HLX Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share."
    in today's PPS of about $37p/s he's got $1,071,684 of free money - not bad

    "13-Jan-05 60,000 HLX Option Exercise at $18.06 per share.
    (Cost of $1,083,600)"
    more free money, with a PPS about $20 at that time it is about $1.2M in the pocket, BUT - it makes him look really dumb and not "in the know" about company business prospectives - PPS went up OVER 50% during next 2 months, "great" trade - missed $600,000.

    "7-Oct-05 55,000 HLX Option Exercise at $19.63 per share.
    (Cost of $1,079,650)"
    with PPS of $29 it puts another 1.6M in his pocket - not bad, BUT PPS goes up another 50% during next 3 months!!! He misses $800,000 - he must know something about company!

    "3-Jan-06 44,250 HLX Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share."
    in today's PPS = $1,637,250

    "1-Mar-06 628,463 HLX Option Exercise at $9.32 - $13.38 per share."
    that puts another $23,881,594 in his pocket and as usual he misses extra $6M run for the next 2 months.

    "3-May-06 15,000 HLX Purchase at $40.08 per share.
    (Cost of $601,200)"
    PPS immediately plunges to $30 in 2 months thereafter - GREAT TRADE!!!

    "4-May-06 15,832 HLX Option Exercise at $9.32 per share.
    (Cost of $147,554)" Now that IS a good trade - market falls and takes HLX with it
    Anyhow - another nickel in the packet - just about 700,000 in the packet

    "15-May-06 10,000 HLX Purchase at $39.15 per share.
    (Cost of $391,500)" "stock is VERY cheap now, time to buy now" - never mind loosing another $10 next month.

    Now, that final "big insider purchase"
    17-Nov-06 70,000 HLX Purchase at $29.75 per share.
    (Cost of $2,082,500)

    So out of about $26 millions dollars he's got out of listed transaction ( I'm curious - how many options he's got left?), he makes 2M purchase - big stinking deal!

    Sorry, but for me he looks like a "Bad trader - selling in fear" and "Not in the know" insider "buying in greed" - DISREGARD "big insider purchase"

    Back to the chart, now this is what I think about STOCK PRICE action:
    It is at a slight resistance right now at $37, if it does not make it ( I think it will make it ) it will look like it is forming descending triangle.

    Next more important resistance is $38 to $39 area, IF it makes through and thereafter through $40, it'll go to $43 - and I think it'll stop there.

    $65 Price Target? I hope those "analysts" bought (HLX)

    (I'm curious if someone wandering if "DT" stands for "Dumb Trader" - I will NOT answer THAT question :)

    Friday, December 01, 2006

    (SUF) reversal alert

    Old news

    Interesting development on (ZOLT) - was it a decision to halt trading or the negative outcome was priced in (ZOLT) is back to where it was before yesterday's intraday runup, I guess expectation of that bad news was holding the stock down, I'll wait till Tuesday and might even buy (ZOLT) for longer than just a day trade.

    Did not trade today in accordance with my silly self indulging rule "After big hit (up or down) take a break" and since yesterday's trades in (AVGN) and (ZOLT) pushed portfolio value up 8% - I was doing nothing, absolutely nothing today.

    Forced miself to look at some ideas which I present below
    long: (NRGY) (AVGN) (CLRK) (STLW) (TSYS) (FALC) (BLTI) (CHCI) (LMS) (IVC)

    One more thing - don't get trapped tomorrow morning on initial market pop, I think it'll be down the hill since 10:30AM continuing into Monday.

    Wednesday, November 29, 2006

    Saved by the bell? or the other side of day trading

    Nasty outcome with ZOLT verdict (Am I glad I put a "mental note" to myself in "Attention late shoppers..." post "High risk, no more than 1/3 regular position size or daytrade.

    Did just that today; at 2:50 went long @22.81 exited 3:30 @23.95, got slightly upset that did not catch that spike to almost $25 10 minutes after. Glad that decided just do day trade before even opened position. This IS a dark side of trading on technicals alone - close to impossible to follow hundreds of potential trade candidates.
    Like they say: "that" happens.

    Have to admit - everybody was right painting ZOLT as a short,
    BUT - I want to be right LESS than I want to MAKE MONEY - I think I did it - 5% in 1.5 hours is a nice payoff.

    Second roundtrip was in AVGN: opened long position at 1PM @6.04 closed 3:30 @6.22.
    eased up on few profitable long positions ( might re-enter next Tuesday)
    Will be continuing to ease tomorrow as well - into any strength

    That said, long candidates (no tactic / price - since I figured that more then 300 daily visitors don't care about details or anything else on this site - I don't need to post price/tactic for myself - I do know it, so this site is a 100% private publicly available journal):

    short: (BRLI)

    Good night Dave - thank you Dave

    ZOLT possible short squeeze alert

    Nov 29th Afternoon update - "BULLTRAP"???

    There will be update on the market direction at about 2-2:30PM EST
    So far I dislike what I see ( from bull prospective )

    Tuesday, November 28, 2006

    "Attention late shoppers..."

    For those of you who missed a chance to add to positions today here some fresh and few "refreshed" long ideas (ordered by significance IMHO) - when you'll look at the industries they belong to you might raze eyebrows - that's OK.

    (PKOH) - it is trying to penetrate weak resistance at 16.35 area
    (PRKR) - 9.55-9.90 would be acceptable entry price
    (OMNI) - 10:05AM tomorrow morning ( yes, this is time - what is wrong with that?)
    (VDSI) - 10.90-11.10 buy price, sell if falls under 10.75
    (AVGN) - on BREAKOUT above 6 and ONLY then. Sell if fails to hold $6 on close.
    (FIZ) - on breakout above 13.12 (stop loss at 12.83 )
    (BLTI) - buy around 8.5, sell if it'll fail to penetrate 9.05 (stop loss @8.25 )
    (SGEN) - 5.3+/-
    (TIV) - on breakout above 8.53 (stop loss 8.22)
    (REDF) - 17.2 limit order
    (COLY) - close to 12
    (DVSA) - today was excellent entry price close to 10, I would not chase this stock - it prone to false breakouts, but keep an eye on it.
    (NLN) - on breakout above 2.64 - have your sell order ready if it'll fail to follow through

    So many stocks, so little money
    How about going short on (TAM)?

    P.S. Hope (NHWK) WILL breakout tomorrow
    INERESTING chart we got for (ZOLT) - I would not be very surprised to see it reversing to the upside - this is soooo speculative take that I would not put in more then 1/3 of regular position size - unless it is a day trade

    Afternoon update (CCC)

    Looks like (CCC) is about to breakout, with its short interest it might be fun

    Nov 28th morning update

    Game plan for Mon/Tue proved to be the right thing to do, saved some aggravation, removed emotions out of dealing with brutal market. For today I'll extend "watch period" by adding "no trade zone" from 12:30PM till Mr. Chairman will send market on the upswing. Am I glad that Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow will not have a chance to spook the market until 4 hours later.

    While you are on this site ( which is free for you, but not for me - not money wise, nor time wise), pick your Holiday Gifts out of carefully selected books and "tools of the trade" on the right side and do yourself a favor ( REALLY ) - visit AXIOM SPEAKERS site in CANADA -I have those speakers, they worth 5 times what they sell for - you'll be glad that you did.

    Monday, November 27, 2006

    It's time to rethink, regroup, relax...

    I don't want to think about market tonight...
    Moonlight sonata
    Of course, since I'm listening it on AXIOM SPEAKERS listening impression will differ SLIGHTLY :)

    Afternoon update and FREE IBD OFFER

    Just went long on (VRGY) and (AXTI)
    Blood is on the Street - I'm glad there was no surprise for me
    (I was talking about "uneasy feeling" for few days now, hope it saved everybody few $$$ )

    IBD offers DAILY GRAPHS free access for a week - must see

    Sunday, November 26, 2006

    Game plan for Mon/Tue ( Treo 700P post )

    As you probably noticed most of the latest "trade ideas" are on the long side breakout play. It has its advantage in overextended market rally (is it overextended? For how long will it stay in the "rally mode"? ) - and the advantage for trading breakouts IMHO is that you can setup "trade triggers" ( TDAmeritrade which has been my broker since DATEK times gives you that opportunity ) and if "activation price" is reached limit order will be activated.
    But for some reason I have uneasy feeling about post Thanksgiving market mood and I'm going to slightly modify "trade triggers" tactics for the next 2 days - I will totally suspend ALL ORDERS for the first 2 hours until I get a better feel of market direction.

    Plus, as post's title implies - I'm on the road now, have not had a chance to look at the latest charts, and to tell you the truth - I did not have any desire to do so, since light Holiday trading confuses my view on the "science part" on the left of the chart and leaves me totally blank on the "art part" ( right side of the chart, of course ).
    As a matter of fact I closed few long positions on Friday ( with mediocre volume it was quite a torture ) and 2 day trades I did on Friday (ENCY) and (SNDA) left me totally exhausted.
    Treo 700P ( and 650 before ) is a life saver, I don't have to carry laptop all the time and be tied up to my "trading office". Sprint services improved greatly and EV-DO speed is amazing. I never disconnected from email and my broker. "Total freedom and confidence" and as an added bonus - if for some reason my cable moded is down - I use Treo as modem, speed is as good as DSL.

    Thursday, November 23, 2006

    Happy Thanksgiving!

    Hope everybody had a very good family sized Thanksgiving!
    When I said at the table that "I'm working tomorrow" none could get it - they know I'm not. Well, I AM - tomorrow is a trading day, short one, till 1PM, but still - market open.

    long ideas, but first - beware of low trading volume tomorrow - could be a lot of false breakouts fueled by retail traders. I will have very tight stops - no more then 2-3%

    (AVGN) - too bad - I missed the move off 5.3-5.5 - now I'll be watching for breakout above 6.10 tomorrow.
    (CHNR) - breakout above 12.5 OR pullback to 10.60
    (COLY) - on breakout above 13.5 OR pullback to 12.25
    (EVVV) - 17.96
    (NLN) - on breakout above 2.65 OR pullback 2.15
    (PANL) - on breakout above 13.15
    (SGEN) on pullback to 5.35 ( I don't think it is ready to breakout yet )
    (BRLI) - on breakout above 25 only, careful - I'm afraid it might be false breakout.
    (RGC) - looks like it is ready to rock - on breakout above 25.18
    (SNDA) - on breakout above 17.14


    (VAR) is still on a short list, behaves nicely so far.

    Now, for those who can WAIT - 3 long "bonus numbers": (DXCM) (ATRC) (CERS)

    Wednesday, November 22, 2006


    long ideas:

    None of above, I think never appeared on this blog, all are "on breakout" ideas, if lagging the market - should be discarded.

    Have a great Thanksgiving!

    Sunday, November 19, 2006

    I'm in the mood for...not trading

    Will just observe market action on Thanksgiving week, will keep an eye on some longs:

    Hot trends, hot stocks... time to quit your job?

    Every month the number of "Investment blogs" doubles, a lot of "cubicle prisoners" instead of doing they job, wondering around the floor, bothering co-workers with stories of "how they doubled their accounts in the last 4 months and they are about to quit this stinking job to become full time trade for living guy".

    Is having a desire to quit day job with asshole manager good, bad, ingenious or just plain stupid? Tricky question, lets break it down.

    Hate your job and manager? Time to move on to another place, but you better be damn certain that it is your manager who is an asshole and not you.

    Next, speaking of becoming full time trader as oppose to making few dollars when market is good. This IS a tough decision to make. Think of not having "guaranteed" paycheck, benefits, pension (if you got one), having to pay toward Social un-Security, long term disabilities insurance .. list goes on, and the only source of income would be trading, Geez - takes all fun out of idea, isn't it?

    Don't forget that in order to MAKE money you have to HAVE money -do you have $200,000.00USD hard cash ready for that? Think 2001-2002 - that is what you needed to make money in trendless markets.

    Not to overlook money for at least 6-9 months to maintain your lifestyle - market sometimes does not pay on the regular basis even to the very best of traders.

    I found compromise for myself, even knowing that I can survive in the stock market on the long run, I still work a little over 20 hours a week to retain corporate "goodies". Do I care about place I work for? Way less then before I found out and PROVED to myself that I can make living trading stocks, surprisingly "my place I work for" seems to care more about ME knowing that I'm not a corporate slave anymore and I HAVE A CHOICE.

    Why am I saying all of that? Because I want to remind to everyone, including myself,
    that HUMILITY and MODESTY are one of the most important qualities for good trader.


    P.S. I'm a sinner too, I started trading blog myself 4 months ago, but publicity or vanity was not the reason for that, I hope I'm not a "show off" type, I still drive G35 ( slightly non-cosmetically modified for better performance ).
    Main reasons for starting this blog
    1. Became bored with my "paper journal", plus publicly posted ideas would imply better self-discipline as well.
    2. The smell of 1999 is in the air, I thought that I might benefit to all of us trying to preach awareness at all times - there is NO free lunch in the market, when we get blessed to MAKE money we need to learn to KEEP money.

    Tax related activities ( answering Tagboard questions )

    1. Tax related
    First and foremost the good news: Institution are mostly done with tax and fiscal year end related selling, since institutions take "30 days wash sale rule" in more serious and organized way than individual investors.
    The bad news: if you stuck holding underperforming, beaten down stock - do not expect it to sky rocket all in a sudden, I'd say 4 out of 5 such stocks will stay where they are for a while.

    Don't be lured by market action next week, don't get excited when laggards and losers will go up - watch the volume! It will mostly be attributed to retail trading and, what is way worse, to institutional traders ( who have not left for long "weekend" ) marking up "laggards and losers" to finish exiting loosing positions or just make a "quick buck".
    It is possible that the week after Thanksgiving market will see some institutional tax related sell activity, but not on the large scale, then two last trading days of November will be good for longs - tuts will be buying back stocks with good potential.
    In December, especially last few trading days, retail will wake up and "cut a brunch they are sitting on" - will dump most of losers at once, good and bad and by doing so will totally miss and opportunity to capitalize on January effect ( if any ).

    2. FORD - stay away, dead money, the only way I would trade this stock is if it'll breakout above $6 with good follow up day and I'd sell it right under $8 - what is so special about FORD anyways? ( In FORD case I totally ignore most of technical indicators, stock has such a small float that it can be really deceiving )

    3. MRVL - I think it is in the process of establishing bottom at $17-18 area, Friday's low range was "safe" price for opening 1/2 of longer term position ( 2 to 4 months ). MRVL does not give clear signal yet, but volume close to $17+ looks interesting, it is not as high as I'd like to see, but close.
    Why am I taking about MRVL which totally is "NOT THE STOCK I TRADE" - huge float, splits and so on? A lot of institutional investors will (?) be buying back into MRVL in January 2007, they can fill big orders on that type of stock, we'll see.
    It is quite possible that MRVL will undergo another shake off during the last week of November - I'd use it to open or add to position - as long as it will not go far below $17.75 on close.

    4. NXG - oh my... It is in the descending triangle (DT) from May, but to my surprise I've seen quite a few DTs breaking to the upside, if gold&silver will crowl higher - I would use it as a sell chance, not a buy opp.

    5. CAAS - unless it is going to be able to consolidate at current level ( which I doubt even with this short interest ) I would not play Russian Roulette. Then again - the week before Thanksgiving is notoriously famous for quick money made in stocks like CAAS, me, personally - - I'd stay away and never feel sorry "that I could make easy double and did not". The most CAAS can do IMHO is to get to about $12 which does not worth the risk.

    6. ZOLT - this IS high risk idea, I did state in the original post "no rush to run out and borrow $$$ to buy - UNLESS these are going to start moving on the upside - as of now they both are better shorts than longs", I hope ZOLT was not bought based on this post. It is still a "better short". My perception of becoming long on this stock is based on the same observation that some hated and fallen stock in descending triangles all in a sudden break on the upside with ferocious force.
    Despite last 2 down days I do like volume - close to lowest volume for the last 6 months. What I think is going to happen on Monday - market will collapse on the open an huge volume and then reverse by 11 AM, if this is what will happen and ZOLT will follow on the upside - I'd buy 1/2 position in ZOLT ( but will keep my fingers crossed )

    Friday, November 17, 2006

    I'm having bad dreams

    I wake up sweating and shaking, I see the same dream over and over again, it does not go away - I've been chased by "will never retire", "enough is not enough", bold old man, he is a Madman, he is a MadMoneyman, Lord have mercy on my soul, Jimmy - stop reading my blog, stop jinxing my stocks, you've done enough trying to jinx ID and NHWK, please - go away!

    Marvell is written on the wall, MRVL - I asked you to buy in an afternoon post, why would not you just buy it and by happy if you make money? Nooo, some lunatic, one of the regular callers or Jimmy himself had to discover it on my blog and now the legion of r..., hmm.. - I think you know how those MadMoney fans are called by real traders, will jump in MRVL AH and spoil the trade!
    That is it, from now on - this site is "MEMBERS ONLY"!


    P.S. just kidding - not yet, but if you would not ask questions - it will be, so there will be no more lurking around.
    Have a good weekend, will post on Sunday night - password will be required.
    ( Kidding ... or may be NOT )

    Market is wrong - market is right

    Someone from TradeGuild's Tagboard called today's selloff "brutal" - I respectfully disagree.

    Market is a living organism and the parts are many ( and many of traders are really gifted, ingenious players - this is who we, retail traders, competing against )
    Respect market, the moment you disrespect - you lose.

    Housing start down - THIS IS GOOD!
    Depends for who, me who was beginning to be bulling on homebuilders and such, this is a good news, inventory WILL go down, prices will stabilize.

    Now - market dislikes this number - tell me something else.
    We cannot really expect rally to go on for 365 days ( well, about 200 trading days )
    This is healthy, orderly rebalancing/profit taking (it is - I normally sarcastic when I hear it ) going on right as I type, market will go up at the end of the day or Tuesday morning. Stay the course - long for now.

    Now, question on ID - load it up,as much as I don't care for Cramer, his technicians are right - $20 is a target.

    Next, use market weakness - NHWK is going up ( Is Cramer following my stocks or something? First IBD jumped all over SMSI after I post, screwing it up big time, so I had to do bunch of trades instead of 5 days trade for better profits, now - Cramer?

    Good luck


    Thursday, November 16, 2006

    Some ideas...

    long: RGC ( short squeeze play ON BREAKOUT ) BRLI CLEC SNDA CRXL CCC VRGY CRY(6.2) FLDR NINE (4.76?)
    above longs should be played using DIFFERENT BUY STRATEGIES! Questions welcome

    and one short: VAR ( if it goes and stays under $51 ! )

    A lot of latest ideas worked out splendidly, lets keep it going

    If you think information on this blog is benefiting you - spread the word about it!


    NHWK is ready for liftoff?

    Even knowing that healthcare is kind of in the dog house I still love this stock

    Wednesday, November 15, 2006

    "Pair of Aces"

    Was going over "past crowd favorites" and here are 2 deserving very close look.
    "Look" it is - no rush to run out and borrow $$$ to buy - UNLESS these are going to start moving on the upside - as of now they both are better shorts than longs, can breakdown badly and suddenly, but since it is a bull market after all - all I am interested in is TURNAROUND STORY ( in PPS - not "funnymentals" )

    We'll see: ZOLT and AVCI
    both hated by value and any normal investor, both overpriced, both...
    and then again
    ZOLT and AVCI

    "Messing with your mind"

    Since I am a huge fan of George Carlin, find him very smart, cynical, funny and on and on... that is why I often use his phrases without any logical reason to do so.

    We are in a bull market, but here comes the time when pessimists are raising eyebrows and getting ready to say: "We told you so..." Is bull run about to end? Not likely, not yet, not now... BUT market, the main purpose of which is to take our money away by using the most deceitful tactic possible, is starting to send mixed signals - starting to fly without any obvious reason ( like yesterday at about 1PM ) or fall like a rock after FOMC minutes and comes right back - bad news is a good news.

    "Irrational exuberance?" Even if it is so it took 4 years since old Chairman said it.
    ( Was he the first who said it? I don't think so ).
    So we'll stay our course (mostly long), but will stay in check and keep some spare cash on accounts.

    These are long candidates ( best to worst, hmm.. or if it will not work out I will later say - worst to best )

    First group of long are breakout play - that is - if they WILL breakout on good volume - get in!

    Next are "just good longs" - better price would not do much damage:
    ASIA ASTSF AXTI BRLI FLDR HGSI (unusual for me long - float is big ) JSDA NTZ VICL


    Will post at 11PM EST

    While you waiting: "Are you trading for the right reason?"

    ID is on target

    ID completed a "circle" - to provide complete solution package, made another acquisition today - we are getting a WINNER!

    Monday, November 13, 2006

    The rise and fall of SMDI or "When to SELL"

    Tony_r from TagBoard asked for my opinion on SMDI I wish I had a good answer...
    Lets look at history of SMDI - I'm not going to bore you with my mumbling, just take a look at scroll down and read very nicely put together historical Cramer's comments and price action for SMDI.

    That's history.
    Since we know how it all happened by now it is easy for me to pretend that I would be able to determine time to sell and keep profits ( or at least not to sit on the dead money for long time ). But I'll do just that - will tell why I would sell at the certain point - not based on Cramer's or anyone comments, but just by "listening to the tape".
    It was all fine and dandy until the week of 4/28, then from 4/28 to 7/7 SMDI started to form, lets pretend "BASE" ( market was bad so stagnant action of SMDI looked really good compared to it - no worries ).
    Of course not me nor anyone else would not be able to call exact date of the beginning of the end, but still - there were IMHO reasons to worry. During above period of "base forming" volume was substantially higher on what was quite flat base, it has never decreased, was much higher on down weeks, lower on up weeks. Higher volume on a flat top tells me that A LOT of traders were getting out. And then the day of 7-3-2006 came - SMDI broke out to new high - THERE WAS NO VOLUME, next day - no follow through and it ended down. This was not the way how highly anticipated breakout of, what was still thought out of as "momentum" stock, should have occurred.
    For me it was a signal: "SELL SELL SELL" - if I would be wrong - I could always buy in later on. Tax considerations would not bother me - as my accountant was saying: "Too bad that you have to pay taxes, but it is OK to make money"

    What do I think of SMDI now? It is November and a lot of traders from the "top" time are at a loss, not a good incentive for any stock to go up. SIRI and XMSR left category of "momentum/crowd favorites" stocks, I might be wrong, but even in spite of growing subscribers base - SMDI potential is limited - how many chips SMDI made that yet to be used? ( Hopefully FCC regulations might add to sales -but would it be enough to push the price up?) My take would be - it will ( will it? Today's sell volume was low - leaves room for hope, hmm... let me rephrase - ease up fear of going further down ) go up in December, but it will stumble at resistance at $11 - 11.3 area.

    Biotech Buyout Craze

    Let see -
    first RNAI - courtesy of CHELOBES from Trade Guild's TagBoard made "easy double" 96% - never mind waiting and rough ride for few weeks,
    next - TNOX which yours truly discovered on Nov 5th delivered 40% never failing 8% sell rule,
    today - SLXA - Sep 20th BullTrapper's find - brought good things to those who wait - 47%!
    This is the past now, what about the future?

    DVSA? Last few days action has something in common with TNOX behavior ( price/volume wise ). Is it still reasonably priced? It never IS - only when it goes up AFTER we buy :)
    I opened position on Nov 8th at 9.21 ( correction: Nov 8th was a day trade, my position is from Nov 9th at 9.63 ), depending on tomorrows action I might try to get it at 9.07 ( I suspect it'll be shaken by MMs ) if not - I'll stay with what I have - so many biotechs so little money and most importantly NOT OVEREXTENDING IN ONE SECTOR is the name of survival game.

    BullTrapper vs. SLXA

    On quiet night of September 20th 2006 "ugly duckling" stock SLXA ( not to be mixed with the company!) was discovered and befriended by BullTrapper from TradeGuild investment blog. Time went by and SLXA stock came to maturity, not without "growing pain" and slight disappointments, but BT believed in it - and today SLXA became a "beautiful swan " - tender offer was made at 40% premiums, making total gain from Sep 20th 47% ( not bad for 6 weeks of "sitting and waiting" and, most importantly - BELIEVING. Congratulations to BullTrapper and great crowd from TradeGuild's TagBoard!

    Sunday, November 12, 2006

    Few long ideas

    ( Monday Nov 13th evening update - if ELOS will close below 23.75 - it'll should be taken off long list )


    Having technical problems with blogger, post either does not go through or all in the sudden getting posted 6 times in a row. Will try one more time - if it would not work will add target prices/stops tomorrow.
    Quick take on QQQQs - seems to be back on track ( based on a weekly chart ), BUT if we'll get one more "distribution day" during this week - I would begin to worry and go on cash as much as possible.

    Thursday, November 09, 2006

    Time off...

    After I hit one like TNOX futured on Sunday Nov 5th ( I did not hit it "BIG" - I respect risk control and position sizing, so it was "just" regular position ) - I have a rule NOT to trade at least on the next day, big winnings just like big losses cloud trader's judgment - enjoy your weekend - for me it starts now

    Tuesday, November 07, 2006

    Few long ideas

    all long:

    Answering the comment question:
    As I tried to explain in the article on the left side of the blog "My trading style" stocks I list night before (in this case - Tuesday night) are prospective candidates for the next trading day, today ( Wednesday morning) I opened positions in DVSA at 9.21 and VOCS at 16.65.

    Monday, November 06, 2006

    The joy and pain of been a father of teenager

    Only had limited time tonight to look at the charts - I'm a proud father of beautiful, smart, stubborn, rebellious, lazy teenage girl Diana - having time of my life trying to grow up with her.

    So here is a quick list in addition to the latest candidates ( some are repeated due to me thinking those are very close to potential breakout ), the truth is - it is difficult to find not overly extended stocks after such bullish day as today, at least we got that move right, I hope you benefited from today's stampede.


    PLEASE, read and re-read two posts from the left column in order to understand my approach to my "trade candidates"
    1. Trading Rules
    2. My Trading Style

    Sunday, November 05, 2006

    "Market will do what we expect it to do"

    "Only not when we expect it to"

    Have not had a lot of time do do homework today, took my dog to the vet into emergency room, so we both are in the very unhappy mood - dog, because she hates that place, I - because for 3 minutes visit charge was $147 - may be I'll stop trading and apply for vet position.

    Anyhow, after looking at the chart and analyzing stars alignment with corresponding ETFs, I think:
    oil has bottomed (USO)
    oil services about to breakout ( OIH )
    commodities, confined to tight ascending triangle for the last month most likely will breakout on within next few days (DBC)
    mining stock will follow ( XME )
    biothech, underperforming last week, is about to start next leg up ( BBH, IBB)
    gold will start consolidating after impressive move up last week, unless
    semis is a very sad story, dead money for the last few weeks, still is (IGW)
    And on and on and on...

    longs, each with corresponding GTC/DAY stop limit order:
    TNOX - GTC stop 14.3 limit 14.55 - something is going on
    CERS - GTC stop 7.65 limit 7.72
    KFI - GTC stop 19.83 limit 19.93
    NL - GTC stop 11.53 limit 11.65

    FMCN - DAY stop 55.5 limit 55.2

    Answering comment question: "
    Anonymous said...

    Is the limit price the price you are looking to buy above and the gtc your stop if it goes against you?"

    Stop in this case is an "activation price" - I don't want ( in many cases ) to buy a stock which will be sitting at the same level or will pullback, I want to buy it after breakout
    And the limit price is the MAX price I willing to pay after "stop" is activated ( in order not to pay top price and then sit on it forever )
    Better place to ask questions is on the tagboard on the left side - I'll see it right away
    Java script must be enabled for: in order to use tagboard

    Friday, November 03, 2006

    No new post till Sunday night

    I think Monday/Tuesday we'll be out of the bushes with this correction on NASDAQ
    Have a great weekend everybody.

    Thursday, November 02, 2006

    Short post

    Just saw that STEL profiled as long on Sep 25th was bought by Oracle for about $13.5.
    Of course, it is hard to imagine that we would hold it, but on another hand - it never fluctuated more the 4% on downside, today it would be 15% - not much, but some make it in a year sitting in mutual funds ( In GOOD year )
    Is it just my imagination or we see pickup in M&As?
    Night all

    Wednesday, November 01, 2006

    Quick take on QQQQs direction

    Since everyone has the same question on their mind...where from now?
    Looking at 9 months daily chart all I can see now is that QQQQs is sill in uptrending price channel, which started in mid August, I'm not going to post chart - you can see it by just using trendlines over the tops and bottoms since mid Aug. Since 10/13/2006 QQQQs begun consolidation ( before that it was on the upper part of channel with slams to work off overbought conditions ) never violating old (Apr/May) support of about 41.5. Tomorrow or within next few day I think QQQQs are going to touch lower band of the price channel and bounce right up. Why I believe it'll bounce and not fall through on the downside? I have argument for UP as much as for DOWN - we'll have correct answer by Nov 7th. I believe the answer is "UP"

    I thought I still have to give you at least one of the reasons why "UP" - today's sell off in this year big winners ( SMSI is a case ) could be attributed to mutual fund fiscal year end, MF must provide shareholders report in 60 days after fiscal year eds, most convenient time for report is beginning of calendar year - we are right at the beginning of this 60 window, so sell off might continue for a day or two and then we are clear for take off

    And yet another SMSI post

    Rough day, scary close, but after seen ER with 70% yearly grows rate, estimates exceeding by 3c ( 17 versus 14 projected by analysts ) and listening CC - I bought after hours at 15.1 using all available margin ( I DON'T DO THAT VERY OFTEN and I'm NOT recommending you to do THAT). I think we longs will get eagerly awaited short squeeze tomorrow and it started TONIGHT!

    P.S. I was not going to do that, but then desire to pat myself on the back won the modesty battle, so I'm saying it:
    "By the way - second stock from Thursday "double take ( SMSI and IIG ) added 10.6% in the very very very bad market, hitting 52WH last two days many-many-many times"

    Bloody ... pardon me...

    So, we do have first distribution day with indexes down more then 1% on heavy volume, we've been talking a lot about it, we tried to line up new short positions, still it always happens just like today - out of clear sky. Don't try to be a hero - lighten up and wait it out.

    Morning update

    ID is down on light volume - good buy opportunity
    SUF is going up

    Tuesday, October 31, 2006

    SMSI saga continued

    What happened?
    This is the right question and we will never know real answer.
    Since I, after seeng my 5 consecutive stops to fire and after adding at 17.3 witnessing that last one to go at a loss, let say instead of making 3x amount I made 1x, and if I'm not going to be able to convince myself that SMSI worth "an earnings shot" I probably lost 5x of expected profits. Yeah, yeah, yeah - I'm "counting turkeys".

    The only way for me to make any sense of what and why happened is to look at the chart.

    Today's SMSI chart does NOT look good..
    Wait a minute - it looked good until, OK - be patient

    Day started for SMSI as we all hoped for and for the market ( I'll use Russel 2000 as benchmark ) as well, on a positive note.

    It did not last long for R2K and by 9:50 it was in the negative territory... SMSI followed due to profit taking and put a bottom at 9:49 at $18.1 and immediately run up again. And that was a beginning of the end of SMSI in the bad market. Everybody set stop loss orders at $18.10 - just in case... I would...

    $18.1 held up until 12:05PM when it was penetrated with just 6700 shares. And that started first avalanche and if you'll look at R2K chart by that time it was in free fall as well. Then up until 3PM SMSI behaved quite well in the very bad for small cap market.
    From 12:25 till 3:05 it never went below 17.2, at about 3PM it looked like it stabilized at 17.3 area - so I guess, going into the close and tomorrow's earning a lot of trader set a stop at -.10 which is 17.2.

    At about 3:10PM R2K started to slide again and pulled SMSI with it, just a bit - but if everybody set the stop where I would ( and sorry to say - did ) penetration of 17.2 on volume of 7300 shares caused the second slide down to 16.35 which immediately triggered a lot of buying on very nice volume and for the last 40 minutes price did not change much.

    Bad market and a lot of cautious (momentum?) traders who bought SMSI yesterday and nervousness before earnings caused this fall.

    Is that what really happened? We will know tomorrow and after earnings we'll have a final dot. Will I buy tomorrow? From my perspective nothing changed since Thursday when I posted SMSI as a short squeeze play except for couple of slams, first was caused by IBD "chart of the day" and short covering and the second one by bad market and stop loss orders, price wize from Friday's close to today's ( Tuesday ) close SMSI ADDED .12c and sitting above current support of about $17.

    Hey - this stock has beta of 4.26 - there is a heat in the kitchen!

    Tomorrow we WILL know.

    P.S. Second short squeeze play candidate IIG is up today 4.77% and 4.4% since Friday when I opened position and it made another 52WK on more then double the volume ( Thanks God IBD did not jinx it :)

    Monday, October 30, 2006

    Quick Update

    We all had very good day today, we all excited and ... tired. So, I just went over previously posted ideas and posting those which are at good buy points. As always - if you have interest in any particular position - ask questions.


    short: FMCN AEOS

    And.. congratulations to those of you who stayed with RNAI - nice pay off!

    Sunday, October 29, 2006

    The "reasoning" behind SMSI long

    On Wednesday night of October 25th ( I run my screens daily ) SMSI has come up on one of my basic screens showing stocks within 10% of 52WH, having small float = 20M, substantial short interest of 33% and with institutional holdings slightly above my "comfort level" of 40% - SMSI has 55%. So far so good.

    When I look at ANY stock I use multiple time frames to analyze price action, let start from 3 years weekly part.

    Stock is in its "base 4" phase ( this is when most stocks which did not go below prior base fail its advance) - there is not much to like here, this is a time when retail investors jump into the stock and then find themselves holding a bag for a long time.
    If you look at weekly chart for last 3 years, base 1 ended on 5/2 2003, base 2 ended on 8/6 2004, base 3 ended on 5/3 2006 ( not exact dates, but you get the point ).

    Now it is in base 4, June 2006 to October 2006 which is not classically shaped, has rough edges, big ups and downs, sharp button of the base, strong run up last few weeks, not really comforting to me, this one to keep an eye on at all times.

    On week of 10/13 2006 SMSI hit 52WH on strong volume, week of 10/20 another 52WH on above average volume, not to worry about red week - it was only down .85% - to me even without using technical indicators it says "accumulation".

    Now daily chart for the last month
    first latest 52WH was set on 10/10/06 on high volume, another 52WH on 10/11/06, there was no follow through which is explained by substantial advance from the buttom of the base in short time, still on 10/11 SMSI gave up only 4.3% out of prior day's advance of 8.54%. Another 52WH on 10/16 on no volume, this caused weak hands to get out next few days with "shake off" on 10/19 down to 25MA line, but still, closed above 6/5 - 7/26 resistance level of $15.5.

    Now, lets look at 10/19 - 10/25. SMSI has formed small ascending triangle on very low volume, which is great in this case since it shows that not too many traders were getting out, apex formed on 10/25 - night I posted it as long pick ( along with IIG ).

    If I would be a big fan of candle patters I'd be scared by "Dark Cloud cover Bearish" formed on 10/27, but - I'm not a big fan of such things, here is why -I think in order to use many of candlestick patters you have to be an expert, perfectionist, hey - MARKET IS NOT PERFECT. I respect "hammers","engulfing" and .. that's about it.

    Average volume dropped to about 800K during last 10 consolidation on the top days, relative strength is quite good - above 60 most of the days.

    Now - last 2 days, strong closes with a lot of buying into the close. You might oppose me and say: "On Friday there was a huge dump of over 100K right into the close" - NOT. Don't be confused by last 2 red candles on 5 minutes chart. First brought SMSI down .12% on volume of about 25K, and the second and last moved stock down another .12% on volume of 95K - can you call it "selling into the close"? I cannot, because if it was just selling stock would plummet on that volume, what it was? Will we ever know?

    As almost always the case with stocks I trade SMSI has quite healthy for grows stock fundamentals.

    And last, but not least, Investors Business Daily (after looking at my blog?) posted "chart of the day" on Saturday Oct 28th night which you can see for free till Monday evening here

    Earnings due Wednesday Nov 1st after the market close
    - it is ALWAYS a gamble, good luck to all of us ( If earnings play makes you feel uncomfortable - you'll have 3 days to close your position - if you have one )

    Battle for "blog survival"

    Fellow bloggers have noticed that for many months it's been a real pain to publish posts on blogger, constant errors, timeout, thanks God - no lost posts due to "save first publish next" way of how blogger works.

    I've been reluctant to switching to blogger beta, but today I took a dive, kept my fingers crossed and switched to beta. So far so good, no lost content, publishing is a breeze, navigation - will get use to it, and what I discovered that due to me been technically challenged I had "unmoderated comments" which I "approved" now and they appeared on corresponding pages.

    One of the "lost in space" comments expresssed a wish to know more "reasoning" behind how I select particular stocks. Explaining why I think stock "ABC" will go up or down for every stock I post is a very time consuming task, but I'll be happy to answer questions for the picks you, readers of this blog, will be more interested in, as I said, don't just blindly use info on this blog, before you make a move - you do need to understand my "reasoning" - so ask questions if any of my stock picks seems to be attractive to you.

    I will do one more post late tonight and I'll try to narrate what caused me to select latest candidates - IIG and SMSI on Thursday Oct 26th 2006.

    Sunday morning update

    Sunday Oct 29th morning update:
    Was reading IBD, was glad to see that one of 2 stocks I selected on Thursday, October 26, 2006 as "short squeeze play" SMSI was highlighted in Investors Business Daily as breakout play under "chart of the day" column. Stock has huge short interest, earnings due Monday, could be interesting.

    Thursday, October 26, 2006

    "The nature of the beast"

    When coolER heads watch in disbelief runaway market that is when we know, that it is time to stop listening for the voice of reason and just join runaway bull market. Crowd is always wrong, crowd is always strong, join the crowd, but watch for a safe exit at any time - you don't want to join patient bagholders caring the bag since Spring 2000.

    (ticker / reasonable buy price )
    TOPT 6.2 ELGX 4 GEHL 29.1 MEND 13.5 KFI 19.3 TXRH 13.8 ELON 8.8 FALC 7.81 NUAN 9.9 ICOC 7.75 COLY 12.2 ID 14.05 RGC 20.05 SMSI 17.03 MNKD 19.45 LMIA(?) 20 CCO 21.5 SFUN 18.8


    Short squeeze play

    Since market is about to open on positive side again let see if IIG and SMSI will fill the bill on the long side

    Tuesday, October 24, 2006

    Throwing darts...

    still when we do that in a good market we want to collect more then just an average return

    long: ABBI CCO PKTR OO

    and some short ideas (it's good to have few of those in case of correction and just to hedge an account): SLR CPS DLB ATYT FRK

    Monday, October 23, 2006

    Just one stock

    FLDR long

    Friday, October 20, 2006

    Arguments for continuation of uptrend

    Here is where market is now - top of earnings season with a lot more companies to report.
    So what one might ask.
    Here how earnings work when companies are at their best. Those companies that have something good to report lining up first anxious to add shareholders value, those who don't have anything substantially better the expected to report don't care where in line they are. Now hear this - for performance evaluation based on currently used metrics if company moves release of bad earning further up, prior quoter earning are going to be used in brokeage houses performance evaluation systems, portfolio managers will get better bonuses, company will not upset the Street - this is of most of company management concerns, they can upset shareholder ( old news ), but they better be nice with the Street.
    So, guess what kind of earning releases we are going to witness next week?

    Next, upcoming elections="uncertainties" and Street HATES it - another reason for "down" vote

    Then with earnings and election behind us, FEDs meeting on Nov 23rd ( If I'm correct )
    With core PPI stinking on inflation front as much as it did - will they raise? Do you want to bet? I don't - so not too many others, especially sitting at the profit in stocks - another "down" reason.

    Oh-ho, "economy booming" headlines by leading financial publications and TV stations? "Lets keep noise down before elections"

    Now, what argument I had for market continuing to go up?


    Thursday, October 19, 2006

    Very short post

    Right to the point - I've been talking too much lately :)


    short: (time to start hunting :)

    Check earnings dates - play it safe

    Tuesday, October 17, 2006

    People I know...Stocks I trade...

    [This post relates to BULL market strategies ONLY]

    Well, not really, since trading is not about who we know, but about who we are,
    so the title of this post starts and stops that useless for us subject.

    Sinsecato ( one of the Trade Guild blog TagBoard's gifted crowd) asked me what I am looking for in the stocks I trade.
    Hmm.. sounds almost like: "Stocks I know..."

    Credits don't go to me, I just adopted and practicing what proved to be safe/profitable way for me to trade.
    Those of you familiar with W. O'Neal founder of IBD will know where my preferences came from, at least partially

    First off I look for the stocks not "everybody" knows about. Why?
    Keep in mind that I'm not talking about day trading, the subject is short to intermediate term trades.

    On a day like today, down day in case you did not notice, most "crowd favorites" getting hit hard, first it starts, as CNBC and other Yahoos call it, orderly "profit taking" which quite fast turns into disorderly, so to say "panicky" act of "cutting losses" by people who found out about this stock after millions of other traders and never made a dime on it, so the process escalates very fast ( I'd love to be short that stock ).
    I hate to be "last in first out" type of a guy, so I try to stay away from crowd favorites, "First In First Out" is the way I wish it worked for me with many happy returns.

    Let say I found 50 candidates, charts look good, volume, indicator, overall market and such ( Mostly using different scans, less often - articles I'm reading)

    1. Float
    should be below 30 millions, if it is 200 m - shares are very diluted, stock split many time, there is no crack, pardon me - no grows. Of course, some like to "trade" GE. It takes A LOT of money to move the price of such stock.
    Example? SIRI - everybody loved it, now what? Everybody loves it so much to sit on the dead money for months, years? Not really, still millions of "investors" have it in 401Ks 'cause "their broker [friend | boss | dog] told them so". Good luck to them too.

    2. Institutional holdings
    I like to see from 5% to no more then 40%.
    The reason - with too large of % if anything happens they will dump fast, at once, and ask questions later. Not really flattering if my middle name would be "bagholder" ( Some use word "investor" - investing IS good, but not when you are holding the bag)

    3. Short interest
    very helpful for price moves, especially if "days to cover" > 5-7 TZOO - yeah, you remember
    Plus it tells you that stock already has ennemies - it takes some price moves, flatliner sitting in the same price range for years normally don't have too much of short interest.

    4. History
    I like to see if not great earnings grows story, than at least decent, I've been caught in overhyped stocks before, thank you - I'll pass this time around. Of course, there are some emerging sectors where there is no history of earnings - exceptions make the rule. BTW, IBD is really helpful to do a quick spot check on earnings history.

    5. Volume
    at least 80K over 30 days average volume, I'm not afraid of thinly traded stocks (Use money management always), as a matter of fact - I'd rather be in 300K volume than in 4Mils. Like they say: "There never is enough volume when you need to sell fast"

    To conclude I'll use similarity between trading and gambling. ( I play BlackJack when I need to replenish my funds depleted by trading )
    The way to win is to take chances when opportunity present itself and find it way before the crowd, cream is gooood, mmm...
    The way to not to lose is to minimize chances for losses and not to look for opportunity where there is no such.


    P.S. Allusions used in this post have nothing to do with some Trade Guild blog TagBoard's members with good SOH, well, you know who...

    Afternoon update

    That was a very good title for the last post: "Patience is a virtue", hope everybody waited for PPI and IP to come out, if you did - not too many got hammered. Speaking of hammered - from yesterday's list mostly only True Religion got down 5% - if market improves - that is a buy, still.
    Most others picks from yesterday 9- UP!!!, 9 loss UNDER 1%, so 18 out of 20 - that is a safe trading, I'd say. Somehow when I bought and sold GAP yeaserday - my six sence did me a favor ( not too big - but a drop on GAP today )

    UPDATED AFTER MARKET CLOSE: This is very good illustration that charts might tell you more then earnings, analysts' ratings and so on - I was raving about how smart I'm for closing GAP yesterday, because I saw earnings shortfall in the morning, then it dropped to $25.5 - now I'm back home IT IS UP 5%! So the buttom line is: "Trust your feelings, but go with your TAs!"

    I will post at about 10-10:30PM EST tonight

    Monday, October 16, 2006

    Patience is a virtue

    Today's list was one of the most time consuming for the last 6 months and in spite of preaching on a subject of patience I gave up - too many run away overextended stocks, but this is what you get in run away bull market, so I decided to start from most heavily shorted, closest to 52wh issues, warning - now MORE then ever you want to make sure that you will be at the profit at the DAY ONE, don't say: "there is going to be tomorrow", so watch for reasonable entry points ( most of them are really "unreasonable" any way you slice it )

    WAIT for PPI to come out, don't trade premarket, let PPI to sink in.

    I did not have time to check earnings dates - PLEASE do so!
    Unless company is fundamentally solid - don't do earning play, it requires KNOWLEDGE of the company, LOOK EARNINGS UP, PLEASE!

    EARNINGS CALENDAR for your convenience

    Most stocks on this list are thinly traded - use limit order, don't chase!
    All long:
    1. these are stocks with the high short interest
    TRLG ( if volume will be strong from the very morning )
    IIG(if it'll start moving closer to 16)
    MNKD (careful with this one)
    AIQ ( my past favorite since Sep 6th - made a bundle )
    FALC(SMSI for alt play)
    SGK ( today was 5x volume with only 0.3% drop - why? something is cooking? otherwise - this is a laggard)

    "just longs" :)
    2. REDF ( is Cramer curse over? not my favorite, but someone might like it :) ) CHDX(?)
    SGEN ( slightly further from the base, but as I said - beggers cannot be choosy, is it bull market so far)
    KEYN(unusual volume last 2 days, fundamentally is not the best one, careful) URGI ( close to 52wk, strong volume last few days )