Friday, May 30, 2008

Happy Birthday Brandt!

I'd like to wish all the best to my dear friend Brandt from Trade Guild who jumped into the full time trading during the one of the most difficult market periods and successfully making it!

In the pack - Kudlow

I just thought that if I disgraced myself reacting to Mr. Cramer's un-treatable personality, then posting some info and reaction of NORMAL people on Mr. Kudlow would be appropriate to finish up my not so busy week.

Time for Bears To Step Up Risk? By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Oh, just in case if you will overlook the date of that article - it is November of 2007

The answer I'd like to know:"Don't those people understand that they make EVERYBODY SICK? And if THAT is the real face of capitalism - is not it time to change it?"
WOOF-WOOF-WOOF - "you just listened to part of Kudlow and Co. broadcast"

Mr. Cramer insists "he is an idiot"?

As been polite person ( sometimes ) I dislike to label people, especially people who proved their ability to make money, if not in the stock market, but at least, on "self marketing" - you better be lucky than smart...
Anyhow, just caught segment of "Mad Money for Dummies" where Mr. Cramer announced that he is an idiot because he bought Citrix Systems ( CTXS) in the Spring of 2006. In this particular case I really have to respectfully agree with Mr. Cramer, especially since he probably bought it from me - I sold CTXS on the week of May 1st of 2006. Not because he was anxious to buy from me, but because I wanted to sell the stock which exhibited the signs of possible collapse. Below are weekly and monthly charts of CTXS with sell signals for that time period.

"Mad Money" rules! At least for as long as hopeful lazy ignorance exists - which is - forever.

Dollar is a King? Soon?

This might just be the last reason to be short US equities markets - Dollar Bullish ETF ending month of May 2008 with "perfected" buy signal. Guess what will happen with USA when it will no longer be on sale for "No Longer 3rd World Countries"?
Have a great weekend - sleep well if you are SHORT :_)

Chart of about to be rotten (?) Apple ( AAPL)

Picture worth a thousand words, take a GOOD look at weekly AAPL chart with DeMark buy/sell signals and DeMark trendlines - I think that depending on today's ( 5/30/08) close Bear might just have another New Year's present. I am short AAPL, RIMM, QQQQ
On a positive note I have to express my admiration for CNBC who...s who try really hard to "keep straight face during the loosing game" - that is what they getting paid for - right?

Thursday, May 29, 2008


Nice week - when you get the action right indeed...
Completed building QQQQ long puts position, might add few if market will gap on the open tomorrow.
DUG long and OIH puts ( so few left that it is no relevant really) doing just fine, although I expect DUG to fail run on $30 tomorrow, pull back to $29 where I might add to position and, for some reason, I have a feeling that, since $30 is a really strong short term resistance area - DUG will just use some excuse and gap up on Monday morning.

Here my new trade ideas
Hope financial will dip some tomorrow - I will load up UYG,
same goes for homebuilders ( much smaller than UYG intended position )

Here is something very interesting - health care is coming back to life (?) - XLV is moving up, attempting to break out of slightly ascending price channel - why ? Democrats/Republicans - who cares -they don't care - why would I or health care care ( what was THAT?) - I guess it just cannot get any worse - will be a buyer for my IRAs.

These are the trades I will stay away from for the next few days:
Metals, agg commodities, other commodities, semiconductors...even in spite of the fact that all of them have sell signals, but I think there going to be high volatility on those - I think I need some sleep, good one.
P.S. Trying to come up with some lame reason "why financials will go up" - why not? If NASDAQ will go down and commodities trade is on a downslope - where the money will go? Mattress?
I need a drink, or two...
Any ladies here - I am
b o r i n g ...

Friday, May 23, 2008

Tuesday Playbook

Just a guess...
DOW - drop on the open 100-150 points, then reversal and attempt to go up to 12700 area in few days, resuming downtrend after that.
Same ( with different "numerical" targets) goes for S&P, NASDAQ, RUSSEL.

Commodities related ( SLX, DBA, DBC, USO ...) will resume uptrend
Oil Services look really interesting - I think the break is in order, no matter oil up or down, OIH had few big fat full bodied black candles which for my unsophisticated mind indicates steady selloff - and institutions do not stop selling that easy.
Here is a pretty picture of SPY in descending channel with mechanically generated buy/consolidation and sell/consolidation signals. ( weekly and 3 days timeframes)

Have a good 3 days weekend, remember fallen soldiers, be smart and don't let anyone to fool you and force to fight for other people money.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

CNBC Q&A session

CNBC Talking head: Why is that energy stocks selling so badly 2 days in the row?
Commodities King: Cause I made a Lying Fool out of myself
Dumb Mutual fund manager: Bluh-bluh-bluh-luation...
Maria Full of Grace: Traders say - they got bored with making money
Gasparino: Cause my pumping and FED's deceit stopped working and people realized that real inflation is somewhere in the range of 10-12%

CNBC Talking head: Ah-ha! Makes perfect sense

So, why?
DavidDT: Hopefully you can see Fibonacci extension right at the top of XLE chart

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

"This time it's different" - NOT

Interesting market action yesterday, just few hours after my "Market Correction" post.
And don't listen to CNBC "talking heads" ( I wonder - why this term is so applicable to Maria Bartiromo - they don't even show lower part anymore, for the amount of money they get paid - at least some respect to viewing public and descent diet is expected, we don't ask too much, we don't expect any smart predictions/explanations, but ... what with the view??? ) and alleged affect (SNDK) had on NASDAQ ( what about a lot of others, non related to technology sectors, hard selloff?)

Yesterday afternoon, most of "hot" sectors, such as Agricultural Chemicals, Oil Services, emerging Markets ( Brazil, Africa and so on) posted WEEKLY SELL signals. This can change during the week, it is still in progress, but this is the first time during last 10 weeks I observe new weekly signals. If these signals will be confirmed at the end of this week, I would expect, least to say, either
1. Volatile Consolidation
2. Hard multi weeks selloff.

(Which I suspect will happen, based on multiple "ugly" Head and Shoulder patterns on a lot of "Hot Sectors" stcoks charts.
Time will tell - keeping long stops tight ( on whatever long positions I have left) and adding more short positions/long puts ( YES - I AM a sucker - I DO BUY options )

Monday, May 19, 2008

Market correction

This is a really short post - sometimes during this week I expect market to begin correction ( short or long lived - if I knew ...)
Locking into long profits, building up short positions.

Thursday, May 15, 2008


Apologies for double negative, but it is what it is OIL - NOTHING MATTER NO MORE and supply and demand, Nigeria and Russia, Brazil, SPR ( strategic petroleum reserve ) - who cares...

The day when Goldman Sacks promises $150-200 per barrel oil price - oil stopped been commodity and finally became JUST A TRADING INSTRUMENT.
If GS can move the price of oil ( cornering IS illegal, is not it?) just based on its reputation of been not dumber than a bag of hammers and shorting subprime/mortgage hysteria ( all idea attributed to JUST two Goldman traders, Michael Swenson and Josh Birnbaum who barely escaped been shown out of the door for having common sense) , so if GS can move the price of oil over 9% in a matter of one week - this is AS HYSTERICAL as it gets for oil now.
Let see if applying just simple technical observations ( I really hate to explain how I read charts ) and not paying attention to any "influential" news we can prove that oil is purely technically affected trading instrument and not something of Intrinsic Value anymore.
Below are 2 intraday charts of DIG/DUG followed by daily charts.
On intraday charts pay attention to MECHANICALLY GENERATED BUY/SELL signals ( red/green bars) and VOLUME during down and UP moves and on daily charts note two huge volume spikes and resulting moves. Make your own concussions - I am short oil - are YOU?.

The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist

This quote (the one the title of this post is taken from) is in the 1995 movie The Usual Suspects, written by Christopher McQuarrie. In it, Verbal Kint explains the story of Keyser Söze to the cop:

"He is supposed to be Turkish. Some say his father was German. Nobody believed he was real. Nobody ever saw him or knew anybody that ever worked directly for him, but to hear Kobayashi tell it, anybody could have worked for Soze. You never knew. That was his power. The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist..."

But the original one ... read on

There was no credit crisis...
No huge layoffs at financial institutions...
No Bear Stern...
No more Level III assets to be priced...
No inflation according to good caring government...
Gas price is down at the pumps in April - trust CPI...
Good Tzar will save us... ( mostly rich pricks - they need to be saved - they ARE the government )
What recession?
What Bear market?
Give me your money sucker...
Relax, bend over and take it... you got no choice...
Keep reading your "Social" Security, Annuity Pension statements - at least you are getting great entertainment value..
Personal Income went up - and disappeared immediately to buy food to go back into the slave world of cubes and belts.
No commodities prices are too expensive for companies - you (consumer) will take it in the ... like a man... or a woman... but WILL take it - oh Great and Patient Americans - complacent and politically correct as it just possible to be...

And market is out of the woods and will go up indefinitely and it is not just a tradable bounce like it happened ALWAYS BEFORE, time and again, after bubble burst and there will be no stagnant market... for years... not that Bush cares...or anyone as a matter of fact - INCLUDING YOU...

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

"Man Down!"

"Man Down, Iron Man down, Iron...DOWN"
No, seriously - MT, AA, CNX, RS, AKS, SCHN, X and a lot of other "forever young and this time it is different" metals' stocks are long overdue for correction and may be something a little more serious than just a correction.

Bored beyond belief with this blog, few hundred subscribers and it feels like I am talking to myself and "tip jar" is empty.

Sunday, May 04, 2008

The Reversal of Fortune

It came to me while I was asleep ( how sad is that I even dreaming about markets?)

Gold Miners (AU,AUY,GG and so on) and Crude Refiners ( TSO, VLO, FTO, HOC...)
( I am NOT rhyming intentionally indeed)
started to go up up and away.

P.S. One more thing - market favorite BIDU will be at 330 on Wednesday ( Part of the same weird dream )

Friday, May 02, 2008

(ISIS) ready for dead cat bounce

Bought bunch of May12.50 and some May15 calls for nothing - can live without that money.
Also, bought back 1/2 DUG position I chipped off yesterday and continued to build crude refiners position TSO, FRO, HOC
Busy week - have a good weekend.

Thursday, May 01, 2008

(AMD) - the stock that never stops...falling

I have to be ashamed of myself, but I am not.
I even searched my own blog to make certain that I did not disgrace its quality by bringing (AMD) word up in any context other than SHORT.
I have not...until today.

Today I declare Advanced Micro Devices the new long term play - LONG as LONG...yes
( What is so "Advanced" there anyways?)
Closing price as of today is $6.22

I will just buy it tomorrow on open and will not look at it till December 2008 or until I get email alert with text: "Alert has been triggered for last AMD price >= $12 or ...until different kind of email: "Your stop order to sell AMD was executed at the price of $5.30 - whichever comes first. :-)

Time to take my medicine....

P.S. WHY? I don't know....may be CEO is going to resign to enjoy milked money, may be Apple is going to buy it...


Not NASDAQ rally and Basic Materials sell off.
Financial moved nicely, time for consolidation, homebuilders will take over the helm.
Started to build MOO ( components) position, unfortunately not at today's bottom, but still already in the green.
Closed half DUG position very close to $34, eased up on FRE calls ( May, still holding June)
Bought quite a few V puts
Volume is a key - volume was lame.
1410 S&P is a key - it held up.
Down we go...