Sunday, October 31, 2010

Weekly Sector Report | 10/29/10 (by Leisa)

We closed October without any of the oft-anticipated fireworks that define this transition month into 4th quarter. The total stock market index was up .13%--we can call that flat.  Below are the 24 major Sectors and their relative performance.

As is usual, I have prepared a chart book in PDF form for your use with the weekly, daily, and monthly (since it is month end charts) for each of the sectors listed above.  You can downoad it here. It's a large file, so be patient.

Below is a weekly chart of the total stock market index.  I like to view this chart because it eliminates the bias of small, large, mid-cap, tech, industrials weighting that is evident in the other indices. I also like to look at the weekly to eliminate some of the daily noise.

We've a string of positive bars--9 weeks now.  With elections this week, perhaps the market will give us its own version of the movie  9 1/2 Weeks?  As we've repeatedly seen, when the market gets to critical junctures, the news flow is the major impetus for the direction up or down--and last week was an example of much activity but very little direction although the sectors had quite a bit of push and pull (which is why I look at them).

Here's a clip from the Rocky Horror Picture Show...seems appropriate for this market to date and for the 'anticipation' for the coming week.  I wish you good trading this week.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Zombie Tape

Tomorrow is the 81st anniversary of Black Tuesday, 1929. As we head into the last day of the trading week, this tape feels like a walking zombie stumbling around on POMO anticipatory trades, getting a little spooked here and there by news on AAPL's margins to HAL's legal problems to currency moves as other countries set out to save their own economies. This is a take no prisoners tape when you see things like the rare earth stocks beaten to a pulp today, so please be careful out there long or short. Also try to remember that correlations might be very skewed as possible rotation takes place. What worked yesterday might not work tomorrow, and that includes the currency and PM correlations.

There is really nothing much left to be said about these charts that David hasn't outlined on his post yesterday or most of us have been chatting about all week long, but there were two charts that showed more signs of possible weakness today that I'll post below. Keep a close eye on the leader darlings tomorrow. NFLX was flat, PCLN was slightly down, FSLR did a nice swan dive on earnings, GOOG was sideways, AAPL saved itself for now at the 20 EMA and so forth. The dollar did pull back some today, but once it found gap support it sat there like a good little dog on the curb and AH volume was not as high as previous days this week, but was still way above average at 30K shares traded. As I'm typing this, the Nikkei is down 145 points so far. We'll see how things look once Europe opens in the morning.

I know that HP posted the bull/bear sentiment info early Thursday, but in case you missed it, here are some charts that ought to blow your little trading minds. And if that doesn't do it, take a look at the NASDAQ Sentiment indicator here.

The first chart shows the VIX with the 3-line break that painted the first white brick as of today’s price action. The $USD chart showed us a white brick several days ago if you remember me posting that chart. Keep in mind this charting method removes the time element, and if you’d like to read up briefly about it, click here.

vix_3_line nasi_10_28

See you tomorrow for another edition of the Vampire Squid Diaries

I ain’t afraid of no Lloyd

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

/ES Video and /SI/YG/DX charts to boot



And here is Dollar Futures weekly


As you can see there was sell 13 Countdown and during few weeks after that - /DX managed to close slightly above TDRiskLevel



/YG and /SI (gold and silver) have different weekly sell signals as well




In short - "I like gooold NO more and neither silver", but I might just start liking wooden nickel again…

Is not it ironic – how "beggars" we are – we wait for FED to stimulate economy and getting disappointed when FED says that they don't see urgent need for as large of intervention as market hopes for…

We still are the biggest…biggest debtor nation in known universe and underverse

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Are We There Yet?

Once again we spent a day of equity ping pong, but as always, there are some great individual trades out there both short and long if you'll take some time, do a little homework and seek them out. I know, I know.. broken record, but it's true. As long as you "think" your hands are tied, they will be.

I just have a couple of charts today because we're at one of those spots where something could happen quickly or we'll just continue this sideways game for awhile. I'm not Kreskin, so I really don't know. I'm also reminded looking over longer-term charts that should we get a pullback, it could be very short-lived, particularly under the current time-line for politics and the FOMC meeting... yada yada.

Good trading to us all tomorrow! As Osi says, Look Sharp!





Something a little mellow for a Tuesday- you jazz fans will remember

the great Larry Coryell. ;-)

Monday, October 25, 2010

True Confessions

Before I share one of the most outstanding posts I've ever seen by one of our own TTW contributors, I'd just really like to thank all of you who sent good wishes my way. I'm still floored by it all, and it truly will stay with me through the year. Thanks everybody. 143

Right smack dab during our trading day today, our own Option Doctor aka optntdr dropped a gem that is not only worth reading once, but I think it's such a keeper it needed to have its own place up top on the blog today.  Note that he doesn’t play the victim card in his trading assessment of himself-Eeeeeeesential to good trading, as well as life in general. If you don’t know him, he’s also an incredibly generous human being with his trading thoughts, as well as jumping through hoops to share his TOS scripts with us and more. How lucky are we? (Thank you OD!)

Deep thoughts from a jet-lagged dude getting over the worst case of Malaysia Airlines business-class (#1 in the world my arse) induced EColi poisoning, aka, thoughts from 54K feet:


1. I have been wrong, plain and simple, allowing my macro outlook to influence my trading to a much greater extent than should ever have been allowed. I have been net neutral for two months, making money mostly by scalping and have missed the big moves. The China PMI ramp was too great for me to chase and I missed 120 spoos points, this will not happen again.

2. Over-thinking. Being an innately intuitive person, I really enjoy analysis of the markets. Some might say I am smart, but innuendo aside, I have come to the conclusion that over-thinking is really the death-knell for traders. I believe therefore it is is the surest way to go broke, and when you manage client accounts, a sure way to go bankrupt. "It is what it is," is my mantra from here forward, my personal macro-centric views, even when supported by evidence be damned.

3. Don't fight the much as I believe that it is different this time and that the old-school play-book isn't worth the paper it is printed on, it doesn't matter, fighting the FED is just plain ignorant. The big-boy mutual funds are the ones moving this market, and they play the same tired book they have been playing since they began managing money and believe they have the "silent put;" thus: fighting this flow has been wrong and will continue to be wrong until these old bastards retire or go broke, whichever comes first. 90% of them couldn't care less or even know what the charts are saying, basing all of your analysis on the charts will continue to not work.

4. Watch for bias. I go to the charts right after the close looking for opportunities for my personal accounts. My client accounts are all automated and extremely proprietary using inter-etf arbitrage strategies, so my daily whirlwind is all mine to own. As such, I have made the mistake of allowing my macro views to effect my chart analysis. While Demark rules are succinct, I have found myself often questioning and/or bending some rules simply because my own personal views contradicted what the chart was telling me and I was able to spin said chart bearish using other indicators. This won't happen again.

5. Take all opinions with a grain of salt. It is easy, especially around here due to the obvious cognitive abilities of many of us to allow others to influence your trading. Guess what?, my IQ is well above 160 and that means what you ask, it doesn't mean shit when it comes to being right, wrong, or indifferent. Others views are their own and you MUST have your own to be successful. That isn't to say you shouldn't heed others views, but keep in mind that you have to own your own trades, be accountable personally for your gains and losses, and have no right to think it is others who were wrong. YOU were wrong for whatever reason: now it is time to own up to it, admit it, analyze why you were wrong, and most importantly learn from it.

6. Mistakes: I have been too arrogant to admit my own as I imagine others are as well. Innately, the human mind has become conditioned to believe we are right, we know best, and all others be damned. I have come to terms with the fallacy of the aforementioned, and believe that using your own mistakes, admitting them, and applying them will lead to far great personal and financial mistakes. Thus for all of you: I am never right dammit!

7. Last one since these are off the cuff thoughts from my 17 hours of flying last week. Each and every one of you are truly special people, yes, even Steve (jejejeje), and it is an honor to trade along each of you each and every day. You make getting up int he morning much more interesting, and I for one appreciate all of you for your friendship, contributions, knowledge, sharing and compassion. Keep it up.

8. I lied, I am NOT ending this on that sappy note: kick ass, take names, and let's go make our fortunes in trading together.


Yeah, I know it’s Madonna (pipe down, GG)… but the lyrics fit today’s post rather nicely, plus it was a Christopher Walken movie, so :-P   Good trading tomorrow to us all!  Get ‘em!

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Happy Birthday "Special K"!!!



The very best wishes to the gentle force that kept this community of traders together through the good times and the bad times and always did it so gracefully that there were no offended.





Happy Birthday Keirsten!





Thursday, October 21, 2010

Cuts Both Ways

knife "Discipline is the refining fire by which talent becomes ability." Roy L Smith

No doubt about it, if you were short going into the morning session you probably felt like you'd swallowed a sword again as they ramped up to a new high on what appeared to be yet another breakout move. But by mid-morning it probably felt the same way to be long and caught off-guard.

So now what? Your guess is as good as mine, and we all know the drill for tomorrow, but as I said to Osi, I plan to stick to my own discipline at this point, and for each of us that means something different, so don't follow me or anyone else on this blog or elsewhere- you are good traders- all of you- so stick with what you know and how you know how to do it, okay? Okay. JJ showed great discipline earlier in the day when he took profits where he had a signal to do so, and that's the way it's done. Much respect for that, imo. No looking back, trade *your* signals to your own comfort level.

Off my early Sunday sermon, and on to a few charts. I'll be gone tomorrow until late Sunday evening, as I'm sneaking away for some fun and games to parts unknown. As always, I'll be in touch with Ziggy, and you'll be glad to get some peace and quiet without me squawking all day long around here. ;-) Put the duct tape away for now. Meanwhile, you guys have it all under control, no doubt about it.




See you Sunday- trade your very best!


Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Tumbling Tuesday

Okay, TTWrs, time to regroup and make sure we have our levels of support/resistance ducks in a row. This is just one day, not a trend setter and like always, we remain paranoid with regard to shenanigans ahead. I'm sure you already have the schedule memorized, but if not, tomorrow is a POMO day.

I've put up a few charts to peruse, but today is an even more special day on TTW than just a nice down move. Join me in wishing our own Humble Student a very happy birthday. She's been with TTW for a year now, and she is a fountain of trading knowledge, great humor and an all around precious person in my book. We love you, HS. Thanks for sacrificing your B'day to the Lloyd for us today. :-)

I’d also like to thank Inna and Deej for keeping us on track with the FX world at this point (or at any point for that matter.) You need to know just how essential your input really is to the rest of us, so thanks guys. Squiddy, a big thanks to you as well for keeping us aware of the volume moves on UUP- a huge clue that has really put the icing on Humble’s cake.

A few charts to add to the moving pieces pile

hg_eod_10_19 dx_eod_10_19
xom_eod_10_19 iwm_10_19
nysi_1 nysi_2

Humble Student is a big fan of classic films, and I can think of no better song for her today with a blue moon coming this week. Enjoy, my friend, and trade well tomorrow, everybody.

Monday, October 18, 2010


Well, that was quite an ending to an otherwise sleepy feeling Monday, eh? :-) We had several important things happen today, not only on the charts, but the  DeMark hits, Gann hits, the Fib hits, T-hits… the fit may have hit the shan with IBM and AAPL earnings out of the way. We still have GS in the morning, though, so let's not let our emotions get the best of us just yet. Still... markets do like to top on good news, not bad news, so perhaps the music has stopped just long enough to get some healthy pullback, which is good for both bears and bulls.  Although we had another POMO day today, I really didn't see the hallmark insta-pumping that we've seen so often before once it closed, either. But.. we have another round of that fun on Wednesday, so let's keep a close eye on potential front-running in the afternoon.  Just two charts tonight, and thanks as always everyone for all that you do during the day.  Bravissiomo!


P.S. thank you to my buddy, icojones, for correcting my spelling on Caramba.  ;-)  You’d think a Lucy Ricardo like me would know such a thing.

es_eod_10_18 nq_eod_10_18


Chart of AAPL




A little Pink Floyd hits the spot tonight.  Good trading to our FX team tonight  (imight be night-shift time again, guys?,) and to the rest of us tomorrow! 


Sunday, October 17, 2010

Sector Report

With this post, I'm re-committing to weekly sector reporting.  However, this report is spanning from July 30, 2010, since I have to use a data starting point, and I'm too lazy to pull the data and enter them individually. I'll resume to weekly changes in the next submission next week.  You can download the full PDF here.


Hard to believe that behind Basic Materials/Resources, that Utilities would be such an outstanding performer!  I chalk that up to dividend yield in the face of declining interest rates.

Here's a chart of the DJ Total Stock Market Index (Weekly Format) with the Volume profile.  I placed a yellow highlight over the next longest bar.


Friday, October 15, 2010

Bears Last Stand

Complacency is at the record levels…just like always
TV is filled with saving of 36 (or whatever the number is) of Chilean miners (which is a very good deed of course), but dumb sheeple who cannot stop talking about miracles of modern technology and magnificent unification of mankind in the pursuit of saving few human lives…these sheeple somehow forget that at the same time for the money spent on Chilean Show hundreds of thousand children in poverty stricken regions of the world (wait… now it is HERE …in USsA!!!) could be saved from dying from hunger! Well, like George Carlin (R.I.P.) said (no, not about "people are…") – "the ONLY war that United States has never fought and will never fight is the war on poverty – there is no money in that"

Now back to our regular programming about Bull-S-It market…
Here is a chart of QQQQ…weekly – IF I would be a to set an ambush and put all Bulls out of their prosperous misery I would shake it right here right now…and DeMark counts and D-Wave kind of agree…

Daily cubes look like…oh..wait – 13 Sequential and 13 Combo are upon us…or them?

And to add to the meaningless pile of wishful thinking I'll end this post by showing SPX – Setup, COmbo / Sequential Countdowns – you name it… will it work this time?  It'd better, because my long puts position is bleeding badly and I intend to add if we close higher tomorrow! 

Thursday, October 14, 2010



dx_10_14 uup_10_14 vix_10_14_



One last thing, and yes, I’m a big schmoopy, so sue me.  This is the song DDT posted upon his return a year ago for all of us.  Yeah, we don’t really like CW music around here, but this really is a pretty good version of this song, and I’ll never forget how excited I was that night to know he had come home to something he would not believe had happened.  Much love to you, our crazy Russian.  143  (tears over here)  Happy Anniversary of sorts.  ;-)


Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Get With the Program

Happy Days are here again! That wasn't exactly the Whipsaw Wednesday we probably wanted to see, but the ending wasn't too shabby either. So... I was trying all afternoon to do a video with Jing, but the sound recorder isn't cooperating with me (yet) so once again I'll just type out some thoughts.

As was mentioned by Doc early this morning, the horse to watch was XLF, and although it made a few feeble attempts to crack 15, it just couldn't make it out of the gate. We have more banks reporting in the next few days though, so who's to know if they can yank it up there kicking and screaming. This is OPEX week, after all, and we’re just two trading days away. So with that, here are a few details you might want to be aware of for the next two trading days, and instead of putting up the same tired charts tonight, I have a handful of sector charts instead.

Thursday: PPI, Jobless Claims at 8:30. Nat Gas at 10:30, followed by Crude Inventory at 11:00. 30 Year Bond Auction at 1:00 PM.

Friday: 8:15, Bernanke speaks. CPI, Empire State Mfg. and Retail Sales at 8:30. Consumer Sentiment (would they like to call me first?) 9:55. Business Inventories at 10:00.

xlf_10_13 smh_10_13
rth_10_13 iyr_10_13

Good trading to you all tomorrow. Look sharp! :-)

Gave up the satin shoes today, and no cocaine eyes, but .. can you hear me knockin’ Lloyd?

Monday, October 11, 2010












Saturday, October 09, 2010

China Chart Book (by Leisa)

tiangongkaiwu I've been a lazy toad, and I've not done weekly sector reports.  I plan to resume them as some find them helpful.  I abdicated doing them because FINVIZ has them. However, I like the Stockcharts presentation better, plus compiling the sector report is a very organic way for me to interface with the market sectors.  I'll resume them next week.

To atone for my laziness, I offer this chartbook of Chinese stocks for those looking to do a little weekend homework.  It's a large file, so be patient with the download which you can here.

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Don't ask questions if you are not going to like answers

Looking back at the questions I "asked" in this post as of September 9th


I see that all of the question as we know now had negative answers – and there is not much surprise to it – when bias not even reinforced by DeMark-ian logic – questions will be answered in opposite to the bias way…


Grey zone held up (nice identified "grey zone" that was – blowing my horn!)


and "is it a bear flag?" regarding crude oil was negated as well – so much for "classical chart patterns" (no wonder I stopped using those long time ago – I just flip the coin and still do opposite to what pattern tells me to do)


2010-10-07_2006 And gold travelled to the top of the channeled fork (with only momentary slowdown on aforementioned 13 countdown sell on daily)



Now – today I am not asking questions, I saw my answer on CNBS…when I glanced at the screen in the airport today – some grey haired (quite long hair and title "best of something 12 years in the row") gentlemen (looked rather unwashed to be called "gentleman" but whatever) said - "stock will continue go up forever".

Great… now I can be sue that dollar/stocks ratio will screw whatever I had left after government/bankers duet liberated me of what I had before…in favor of those who had nothing (or "all" – it is only those in the middle getting f…d…translation "forked" – and you thought … WHAT???)


I heard that song before … in Soviet Russia… : "Those who were NOBODY became EVERYTHING" or whatever appropriate translation of "International" is….

Hate politic and politicians – they only good in the same way as lawyers…on the bottom of the ocean…

Trade well