Saturday, January 26, 2008

Goooold, I love Goooold... DO I?

(GLD) is flushing sell signals as I type, sell signals moving up from daily to 2,3 and not far off that day when it'll shine on weekly.
Too late to go long ( especially with long awaited upcoming strength in once mighty US dollar )
It might be slightly early to short - but it sure is time to get ready.
And - for the love of money - stay away from gold miners, especially if you are not fast enough to pull the trigger - the only way to describe fallout of gold miners when gold will go down is "The Domino Effect"

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Morning notes

Firstly - FED...yeah...why do we pay taxes? Pretty much the same question as: "Why do they hire incompetent managers?" That answer I know: "Friend of a friend, nada to do with business intelligence or intelligence at all"
Enough said...

Posted on TradeGuild TagBoard this morning
( first message is down under:):
23/01/2008 08:05:10
oh, before it is too late get into (TSO) long ( (VLO) and other refiners will move as well ) good for big position size
23/01/2008 08:03:43
Ari9900 is not with us, so I think his (ROCM) will be moving UPppp soon
23/01/2008 08:02:27
Good morning all. Is (JADE) due for a POPppp?

Tuesday, January 22, 2008


Thank you - FED, sit on your arses till 10:00AM, please.
Will buy Feb calls on N, LDK, RIMM between 9:30-10:00AM if ( hopefully) market will dive 500-700points and FED will not step in till 10:00AM

Monday, January 21, 2008

"Black Tuesday" or FED to the resque?

Tuesday after market close?

Or will he blink?

No matter what will happen short term - he is here to stay.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Market opinion

Financial were in strong downtrend since May 2007, I hoped that FED
would step in last Friday and cut rates, but then I realized that FED
passing on that IS a good news - natural flow of sell off is not been
interrupted by brute force. So I hope Tuesday is going to be a "Black
- that will conclude financial sell off and produce "buy
signal", which will result in some uptrend on a weekly basis. How long
will it last? I have no clue, but if CDS collapse will be prevented
( I don't mind FED stepping in and buying all of that surreal garbage
for 50c on a dollar ). Not as a "revenge trade", but as a part of the
plan I will buy ( YES, AGAIN) calls for COF, BAC ( after ER) and FITB
ans SOV.

Disclaimer :) - this opinion is NOT based on oversold/overbought
market conditions - market can stay that way all the way :)

And if CDS will unwind - $500 trillion pounds gorilla will do less
damage to economy - Lord have mercy on my soul then!

Some of trading ideas I'll be watching next week
YHOO - oh, yes, that dog...
CHME ???
ADCT ??? (Cramer cursed?)

DBC puts
DBA puts?

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Life is good, even if you long

No questions, I sound like I'm going nuts, more nuts than I already am...
No, not yet at least.
Took a hit today, although did unload most of my long positions yesterday, including big chunk of (VCLK) Jan22.5 calls ( cost .45 ) sold most of it on "unexpected upgrade" @.65 and gave profit up today on the rest of the bunch.

Here, some long ideas, I might buy tomorrow morning when market will collapse after (INTC) fiasco today after hours:
(BRKR) Feb12.50 calls,
(HNSN) - if it drops reasonably tomorrow morning will buy Feb25 calls,
(OSIP) - if holds 41 level next 2 days.

And I will be lining up short ideas in case if FEDs are going to panic and cut rates Friday morning.

Oh, and I bought another lotto ticket ( which will worth NOTHING Friday after the close) - (JBLU) Jan5 calls

Sunday, January 13, 2008

CRY puts anyone?

The answer I'd like to know - will SEC look into good news/bad news timing for CRY? Number of investor/traders jumped in on "good" news, and the very next day lawsuit broke out - that is what we call PERFECT TIMING! Just curious - anyone bought some puts? Oh, well, I think I want to know too much - I just have to be thankful that news on Jan 11th was posted even before pre-market ( 7 AM, I think, was the time ) and no damage was done to my portfolio.
Still, any unusual puts buying on Jan 10th? Or heavy insider selling? - I really want to know...

Thursday, January 10, 2008

CRY Baby, CRY!

Firstly, thank you for all contributions I have received from those who appreciated "entertaining" value of " Airlines putting tradable bottom" phrase. Some of you, obviously, can understand what you are reading - once again - contributions appreciated - and your appreciation keeps this site alive.

From stocks mentioned in prior post
(KG) - jumped about 20% withing next 2 days
(LPNT) - slightly down right off the bet and according to my trading rules - never been bought - I do not buy on the way down. Same goes for (MPEL) - people will stop gambling in tough economy? Never happened before will not happen now - but discipline and patience - no trade.
(ENER) - decided not to buy calls - was way too exposed on the long side in a very bad tape - kamikaze act, but paid off.
(VCLK) - way underwater with calls - a lot of things might change in a blink of an eye these days.

Now, my new idea ( reflected in meaningless post title :) - (CRY) - I will buy on pullback to $8.5 area, nice earnings today, nicely handled conference call, I think it'll be a good long trade on pullback tomorrow (not to overlook that biotech earnings season kicks off on Monday )

Sunday, January 06, 2008

Some trade ideas

I'll be watching few potential reversals on long side ( these are "stinkers", close to 52wl) : (KG), (MPEL), (LPNT) and airlines which might be putting tradable bottom - (AMR) ( not long term indeed ), also I'm eying (ENER) calls possible trade
And as a lottery ticket on Friday I loaded up on VCLK Jan 22.50 calls @0.45 ( +QCSAX )
Good luck and ... if you cannot use that kind of volatility to your advantage - stay away and sleep well

All the right moves...

Firstly - totally cashed out on all of triggered positions with such a marginal profit that I will not wright home about.
But got options trade quite nicely at a profit of over 100% in 5 days - here is how - in order to explain logic behind the trade I need to use my posts on TradeGuild's Tagboard
At about Dec 26 I wrote: "Today is most likely is the last "markup day" ( Tuts propping up prices of well performed securities in order to look better on quarterly report ) Since it cannot be done due to obvious reasons during the last few days of the quoter - SEC watching, plus human desire to go on vacation on holidays - last few days I expected to be not so good. And first few days I expected selloff to kickoff - I thought due to current market/economy conditions everyone would want to cash in on profits and then some more of the same...

So, based on these assumptions I opened substantial position in RIMM Jan110 puts (RULMB) @3.25
Once in a while you CAN time the market - closed position on Jan 3rd at avarage profit of over 100% ( could have been more should I hold another day - traded as high as $9 a pop ... shoulda-coulda-woulda) - cannot complain anyways.

Next week will start from Monday morning selloff ( retail chickened out and called Friday screaming: "SELL MY MUTUAL FUNDS ... NOW!!!"
"Now" is Monday Jan 7th morning indeed )
Then, may be even Monday or Tuesday market will go up - why???
Do you think that jobs report came as a big surprise and really affected market action? BS - everyone knew that with lay offs in financial industry that has to be expected - media just want you to believe that is was "shocking surprise"

I am not saying we are on the road to another bull market - I am saying that if there are some long positions yet to be closed or short positions to be opened - next week or two will provide such opportunities.

Now - off the topic - for those of you who had not so pleasant travel experience during holidays - read on - could have been worse :)