Sunday, September 30, 2007

Market thoughts and ideas for upcoming week

Semis - in spite of widely publicized upcoming upside breakout of semis, I don't think semis indexes/ETFs look healthy at all - I might be looking at some short ideas among those.

Israel Stocks - look very attractive on a long side, I'll be putting together long watch list.

Real Estate is in "advance/consolidation phase" - looking forward as how it'll play out, bear sentiment is so extreme that I will not be surprised that right in the midst of carnage we will see major bullish advance - long or short lived - time will tell.
As of now rather than playing with individual stocks I'll be looking at going short SRS UltraShort ETF. (Do NOT confuse it with HomeBuilders - bottom is yet to be seen there )

Russel2000 and MicroCap stocks shaking off selling pressure and deceitfully painting "move up" picture - I doubt it will happen, not just yet.

S&P500 is about to break out of short term consolidation, move higher short term.

Oil...Oil.. what about OIL? I think it is in the very final stage of advance, does not matter that "winter is coming" - I think OIL IS done...

Energy - ready for at least pullback

Financial - don't try to pick the bottom there - disease is still there, shots did not treat it.

Water utilities are about to take a beating?

Some swing trading ideas I'll be looking at:
Long:(SBS), (ACI), (PNCL), (UCTT), (VNUS), (ZOLT), (PRKR), (QLGC), (RADS), (SAI)*, (SCUR), (SHFL), (SPIL), (TASR), (TIE), (TXN), (KMGB), (LPNT), (MENT), (MPEL), (NHWK), (OLN), (OXPS), (FIG), (FOXH), (GLW), (GSIC), (HLF), (HLX)*, (HNSN), (IDSY), (JASO)?, (AKAM), (CLWR), (CNX), (CRDN), (CUTR), (CYCL), (DIGT), (DSTI), (EVVV)

Short: (BRS),(ETW). (ANR) ?, (VRGY), (VLO), (PTIE), (RVBD), (SA), (SGMO) ?, (SOHU), (SWIR), (MFW), (NOC), (NSTK), (NVTL), (HALO), (BPHX) - risky one, shorting a top?, (BWTR), (CELL)?, (ELON)

These ideas are been generated from over 1000 stocks on my watchlists, a lot of time has been spent - your donations are greatly appreciated.

Don't you think that chart is pretty? Pretty LONG?

Friday, September 28, 2007


Range bound day, deceitful, and once again - boring.
Resembles school kids looking at each other " Who will that THAT first?" - and not much happening.
Current positions:
(HLX), (SAI) long
(ARNA) short
Will close if with some luck will be able to stay awake.
Have a great weekend, we still have few good days left - I will use it as selling opportunities

Thursday, September 27, 2007

(CBAK) trade

Quoted from TagBoard located on the left side of the page and serving as the scratch pad area for timely ideas:
25/09/2007 14:02:48
GM all it is Tuesday 8:00AM keep your eye on (CBAK)"

( for some reason timestamp is reflecting Spain's time and multiple requests to "TagBoard Guy" to fix that issue are been left unanswered, so that "14:02AM in reality is 14 - 6 and it is "10:02AM Sep 25th" )

That is was/is the trade we all waiting for, at the time of the TagBoard hint price was $4.40, today, Sep 27th opening we are looking at about $8 open - that is almost double so far. I unloaded 1/2 position yesterday - let see how it'll develop. Chinese stocks are still in play, (CHL) is up another 6%.

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Watchlist for Sep26th '07

Stocks I'll be watching today.
If you are interested in Real Time Trading Chat during market hours,
leave request in "comments" with your Yahoo IM ID.
These are NOT recommendations to buy or sell any particular security.

Monday, September 24, 2007

Trading Notes for Sep 25'07

Below are my daily notes I make daily in preparation for the next trading day.
These are NOT recommendations to buy or sell any particular security.
Notes abbreviations:
ba - buy above
bp - buy on pullback
b - buy
b/s - can go either way
s - short
su - short under

ba SIMO 23.75
ba BOOM 47.75 !
b BWTR !
ba COGT 15.55 !
b JASO as long as not under 43.10
ba KMGB 26.07
ba FIG 21.24!!
ba TASR 16.06
ba NSTK 14.10

s FTEK closer to 25
su MEDX 13.92
s PWAV ?

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Monday, September 10, 2007

Never forget, never forgive

To all my friends who meaninglessly lost their lives in the flames of WTC - you are remembered, you are forever in my heart...

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Transcript of today's real time trading conference

If anyone who does intraday trading ( some call it "day trading", but in reality it is just spotting
intraday quick plays which might , at the same time, be safe to hold overnight)
would be interested in joining Yahoo IM conference hosted by Bull Trapper of TradeGuild Investment Blog and yours truly DavidDT of Trading to Win Blog -
send an email request to alexalexttw @ yahoo com to be added to participants.
here is an example of trades placed today:
DEEP - profit 9%, HNSN 3%+ in 10 minutes, RVBD 3.5%
and ODS short - BT spotted it right at the beginning
at unchanged for the day 0% and in about 30 minutes it plunged to -11%.

Obviously participating in this conference does not constitute investment or trading advise - it is just 'this is what "I" do'

Below is a transcript of today's "trading real time conference" - fresh ( well thought out ideas!) are always welcome

DavidDT (9/6/2007 9:46:28 AM): IDSY close to breakout ( BO from now on :) - volume is still low

DavidDT (9/6/2007 9:54:18 AM): JADE seems to be "in play" long or short – not clear yet, OLN looks like a decent long in strong sector

DavidDT (9/6/2007 9:56:44 AM): what do u think of TWTI above 8? long

DavidDT (9/6/2007 10:02:14 AM): CASY attempts to BO, zacks rated BUY

DavidDT (9/6/2007 10:06:28 AM): DEEP long

DavidDT (9/6/2007 10:19:37 AM): long RVBD 40

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 12:10:17 PM): NEOL may be ready to break out to the tupside again-it's flirting with an intraday pennant right now, possibly ready to bust-a-move!

DavidDT (9/6/2007 12:12:11 PM): did you see DEEP? 10% since 10AM, I am up about 8% on DEEP and 3.5% on RVBD ( going to get stopped out soon I think)

DavidDT (9/6/2007 12:16:39 PM): MEAS from yesterday keeps rocking NEOL is way to speculative for me

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 12:25:20 PM): There were excellent 3Cdivergences (intraday) in DEEP starting 8/22, still looking good except for 1-min (neg divergence)

DavidDT (9/6/2007 12:31:44 PM): I am a dumb guy, I do not predict, I react - I have like 200 stocks and predfined price break levels set for many of those, in case with DEEP - I hoped that when it'll breal upper ascending KBs - it will move and it did exceed all my reasonable expectations. RVBD was a make it or brake it honestly, well, there was a very good volume support at 40 ( on 6 months chart ). Can you use "volume by price" in TC?

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 12:32:10 PM): My 2-min stop channel would take you out of DEEP at $12 and moving up. For your purposes, the stop channel is almost the same (right now) as a 17bar ema on 5-min chart. Neg divergences on 1-min are building.

DavidDT (9/6/2007 12:33:20 PM): SOLF is moving up - looks like today is a VALUE day :)

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 12:34:01 PM): I'm sure you can build vol-by price indy in TC, certainly blocks, but it wouldn't read the same as there doesn't seem to be any horizontal display in either program-(could be wrong about that in blocks).

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 12:34:35 PM): DEEP stop channel @ 12.09 now-you still in?

DavidDT (9/6/2007 12:34:45 PM): i c, that is one of the reasons why I like quotetracker

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 12:35:15 PM): 12.12 now

DavidDT (9/6/2007 12:36:17 PM): I set -3% trailing stop on DEEP, it might continue up tomorrow as well, I don't want to get stopped too soon, both (deep and rvbd) are small size - I can afford to keep overnight, BTW - I bought AOB back yesterday, making few bucks now.

DavidDT (9/6/2007 2:55:13 PM): LGBT is your stock ( your idea) - volume is been rising last few days

DavidDT (9/6/2007 2:59:25 PM): going through the charts - nothing I like what do u thinkl of PTIE?

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:01:44 PM): nstk running

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:03:52 PM): pretty hard selling into that run (NSTK)

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:04:11 PM): HNSN long

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:04:43 PM): take a look at TASR

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:05:56 PM): I would not touch ( personally ) TASR before 16, look at HNSN - it is very close to moving up, volume is low tho

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:09:04 PM): looks interesting

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:09:05 PM): sold AOB ( 10c profit), bought HNSN 25.07

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:09:48 PM): was stopped from DEEP - about 8%+ profit intraday, keeping RVBD ( cost 40)

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:10:57 PM): what do you like about RVBD? looks like it is rolling over

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:11:48 PM): daily ranges - and you are correct - there is not much to like right now (RVBD)

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:11:50 PM): stop channel would have taken you out at 12,21 (DEEP)

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:12:06 PM): watching IDSY to pickup some volume, otherwise I like it

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:28:58 PM): ODP getting it into the close ( short )

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:29:20 PM): gotta love the no up-tick rule

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:39:39 PM): scon may bounce here

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:40:59 PM): weird action on ODP, no ER after close, nothing

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:41:33 PM): hammered!

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:41:36 PM): tempted to close HNSN 3%+ in 10 minutes

Bull Trapper (9/6/2007 3:42:25 PM): that's a tough call

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:46:03 PM): that is what I call "fair disclosure" - ODP - look at that volume

DavidDT (9/6/2007 3:58:27 PM): will sell HNSN if goes below 25.35, still going to be 1.5%

DavidDT (9/6/2007 4:44:23 PM): how did u come up with ODP? -11% now - wow