Monday, December 29, 2008

If things were not bad enough...or former's KGB opinion

When people are bullish - they bullish to extremes,
when bearish - apocalypses is unavoidable.
Where is that long lost common sense few of us crave for?
What is common sense today?
Who is right, what will be, who will prosper and who...the rest?

Enjoy your morning flipping pages of what some thought of once as of "reputable financial publication"

USA will split

At least chances for that are not any worse than those who is getting married and will split withing 2 years - 1 out of 2 :-)

Gold anyone? Now?

Thursday, December 25, 2008

New Year resolutions...or "should you be trading"


(Originally posted in December 2006, reposting for the benefits of Trading To Win community
New Year resolutions...or "should you be trading" )


We all humans, we all use dates to make important decisions, we need excuses like
"After New Year I will ..." - and those dots are just what I'd like to talk about.
But first lets have a quiz, simple one, "Yes" and "No" answers.
1. Recently you had a "fender-bender" cause that other person stepped on the brakes all in a sudden.
(Not because you were not ANTICIPATING such event)
2. Your kid asked to go to the country fair together and you were too busy studying the stock charts.
3. You lost on a trade because of intense argument with your better half ( Hey, the "other" half is ALWAYS better :)
4. You did not do something in time ( you were too busy watching delayed YAHOO stock quotes) and your boss did not give you a raise.
5. For your portfolio you created 2 separate watch lists - one for stocks in green and you watch it religiously all the time just for the pure pleasure of it, calling your neighbor to show this list and be able to say: "On average those stocks are up 5%",
the second list which is substantially bigger in all respects, such as number of stocks and negative percentages, but of course, no more than -50%, of course not - your broker most likely sold that deeply margined position to be safe, and that SECOND list is the one you prefer to never look at, agonizingly hoping that somehow, miraculously you will get your money back, sometime, not soon, but sometime - and you quit smoking in order to be able to live long enough to see that moment
6. You come home from work ( let say 7 PM EST) and you run to look at your portfolio and then you say: " I knew it was going to go down - I had to sell yesterday!" instead of "SELLING YESTERDAY"

This list can go on and on so I'd rather stop right here before I become even more cranky than I usually am.
THE BOTTOM LINE - If you answered "YES" to one or more questions, then the "dots" in unfinished "New Year resolution" MUST be replaced with
"After New Year I will NEVER TRADE AGAIN"

After you say that, you might
1. ( Most common one) - BREAK YOUR PROMISE, lose your money, lose your job, family
( SAVE YOU ALL GOD FROM ANYTHING LIKE THAT - I, myself, almost lost everything many years ago )
2. Really stop trading ( tough choice - I know )
3. Find the BALANCE between trading and life, family, work, all that really important non material stuff, re-analyze what you did wrong, stop hiding from reality of unavoidable losses, stop blaming someone else for your mistakes, in short "learn to stand the heat" - in this case
Many Happy Returns, Best wishes to you and your families in New 2007 Year.

Merry Christmas,

Happy Chanukah

and a very Happy New 2009 Year

to you and your families

Monday, December 22, 2008

"Giant on the feet of clay"

"The banking system is a monstrous giant on the feet of clay"

"Never in the history of the world have we faced so much complexity combined with incompetence in understanding it properly"

I came to United States from the country where logical thinking in political and economical terms were not permitted, thou it was achieved by brut prohibition rather than by employing CNBC's cheerleaders selling "endless American prosperity" to uneducated blindly patriotic over consuming John Q Public.

Only under these artificially cultivated conditions such things as

"cream pie fight" could appear funny,

leaving lots of food on the plate was as much as a norm as ignoring existence of hungry surrounding world,

killing Wal-Mart employee chasing after flat screen TV was "an incident" rather than CRIME,

producing high school graduates not capable of multiplying 2x2 was "equal opportunities education" (skyrocketing number of potheads dropouts was ignored) rather than inability to maintain proper educational staff as oppose to CLOWNS,

politicians screaming about "illegal Mexican immigrants" and ignoring H1 Visa holders (covered up as "much needed due to lack of American workers in that field" - programming is a good example)

Above list can continue indefinitely, I don't pretend that I "know it all" or "smarter than some", I am not a "smooth talker" (or even "smooth writer"for that matter) and I certainly not a "fighter" anymore.

Why don't we listen from time to time to really smart people and not to worry about their "timing" - their "time" WILL COME if not "has come already"

(word of caution - you will probably have as much trouble understanding their accents as my writing, but it is to your very own benefits not to laugh as we, Americans, were taught to do when travelling to Europe...and... try not to think of "Black Swan" in terms of charts - it is a totally different animal...)


The REAL Maverick: Present Economy worse than Depression

Thursday, December 11, 2008

I am in "New York State Of Mind"

Well, to be exact - 'in Holiday state of mind"

I don't do a lot of shopping, my 3 ex wives take good care of it, I just go to New York and spend time going to Carnegie Hall, Metropolitan, meet with old friends, they all look really bad nowadays - most of them worked for now gone or about to be gone companies, yes, I did spend most of my work carrier during "New York Times" (before I moved to Connecticut after 9/11) in financial institutions, sounds just like "mental institutions" today, oh well.

Not being able or willing to decipher intermediate term market direction, I just clip few /ES trades daily and sleep well, except for tonight - I got caught in few long /ES @876.25, went out to smoke and saw it down 20 points - will be fine tomorrow. I will not be actively posting or trading till New Year - I think it is time to enjoy soma cabbage I made during this crazy year...

Enjoy Holidays, if not everything is "alright" in your world - think that "it could be worse" and the way it is going it most certainly WILL get MUCH worse.


Barbra Streisand • New York State Of Mind • [1977]• " Streisand Superman"

Friday, December 05, 2008

The answer I'd like to know (Kudlow)

Larry, do you have ANY moral standards whatsoever to be able to face the camera and being watched by "-533K jobs lost by REAL PEOPLE" and not to apologize for "Being WRONG on the market, WRONG on economy" and, as small symbolic compensation, offer to redistribute all the money CNBC paid to you into sinking unemployment compensation funds?

High Impact Expected

Non-Farm Employment Change -533K

In the pack - Kudlow
"You are out of your mind!" J.B.

Thursday, December 04, 2008

Arrogance, paid cheerleading and just plain stupidity

vs. "Smart, quiet, confident, concerned, honest"

The answer I'd like to know:

"Why they put bagel thief  or pot head in jail and morons you see in this video are still at large?"