Friday, June 19, 2009

Missing piece of a puzzle (S&P500 D-Wave)

One of the readers asked me in email: “Was that you intentionally omitted monthly or even yearly charts because they totally contradicted to your longer term bearish view?”

On the contrary – longer term charts make out (USA) perspective even glimmer.

Here you go – S&P500 Monthly (index was originated in 1949)

^SP500  9_1957 - 6_2009 (Monthly)

Here is zoomed version of the same chart, it clearly shows that we either in final stages of 60 years old bull market (WA of major UP) finished, we are in WB up right now (not confirmed yet) OR we just satisfied minimum requirements for Major DOWN W1 and if so – God help us.

^SP500  4_2006 - 6_2009-zoomed (Monthly)

Surfing down D-Wave (Video)

TTW 20090618 D WAVE SPX

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Where we are and where we are going

Yesterday’s price range worked admirably ( I wrote: “Tomorrow I would expect SPX to drop to 903 area and then bounce to at least 912..and we’ll take it from there…” )..

Looking at 30 minutes S&P500 Index (SPX) we shall note that W4 down of major UP touched on intraday basis 76.4% projection and bounced right off that level. Accordingly, I expect tomorrow morning that level to be tested again and W5 up will start tomorrow/Friday.  Will new highs be set?  Possibly, most likely 965-980, but not necessary – my time horizon for majority of the trades I do is from few hours to few days, unless I expect fundamental price direction shift (and not “drifting” which we’ll most likely be witnessing for a while)


 ^SP500  6_17_2009 (30 Min)

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

The Catcher of The Fly

If you have ever wondered if politics and politician can get even less attractive – today’s Fly Hunt in The White house just gave us yet another example.

Imagine world leaders who will be forced to shake majestic hand and the only thing they will be thinking about would be: “Has he washed his damn hands after that fly?” (“Fly?”)

Anyhow, lets talk charts – a little bit of history today.

On March 16th I posted this chart ( Post Day Trading /ES off an Hourly Chart )


Today, when I was looking at my current hourly chart I saw some kind of blue trendline and suddenly realized where it came from.  Yup – the very same “creative Art” trendline placed on the chart 3 months ago…  Talk about usefulness of technical analysis properly applied…


Enough of history for now.


What we have on the next chart (SPX daily) is

1. Yellow circle which was my target area for the last 2 weeks is right on…thou 4 days later than I expected.

2. TDST Resistance 911.93 (support now) is right where SPX settled today.

3. descending red trendline is right there

4. Fib fan 62% area is close by

5. Yet another Fib Fan 38% is right there

6. TDST Resistance 920.28 …you guessed – right there

Tomorrow I would expect SPX to drop to 903area and then bounce to at least 912..and we’ll take it from there…

Oh, by the way, that “blue trendline” points to 886 area…hmm..


Oh, one more thing, that last 6 weeks formed one hell of an “S” top which is no less dangerous than “Black Swan” pattern.


Sunday, June 14, 2009

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Introducing "Channel Max"

Today, with my greatest pleasure, I'd like to introduce trading system

"Channel Max".

My buddy Brandt, from Trade Guild, has finalized, perfected and backtested trading system which, according to his data, outperformed broader market by the margin of 100-200%.
It is not a day trading system, more of a swing to intermediate long term, but why would I spoil the fun - visit his website, find out by yourselves - right now, he is giving away 2 free weeks access to his Wolf on The Wall St. Premium Website - try it on!

Thursday, June 11, 2009

10 year treasury note

[Posted on Contributors Site on the night of June 10, 2009]

10 year treasury note

Interestingly enough Karl Denninger noted 30year action activities the very next

Speaking of Jobs Reports and other BS



The worse is not over says Jim Rogers

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Bearish until proven wrong

Have received quite a few emails lately calling me names such as "unbeliever", "SOB", "stubborn" etc...

Fine with me, I have my system and until my stops (not silly stops based on fixed amounts or %, but set based on current market volatility) will hold - I am staying short.  And may be the system I use is a bad system, but I'd rather have a bad system than no system at all and CNBC on.

I cannot be long looking at this chart, no way Jose!


Crude Oil completing TDCountdown Sell 13 this very moment (overnight session)
XLF rising wedge on weekly, under TDST Resistance
AAPL daily sell under TDST Res and weekly res
FISV daily sell today
JOYG daily sell 2days ago, right at TDST Res
TNX reversal at 39.64
Why anyone would be bullish now???
Pardon me, but I only speak few languages and most of those are bad, so in my plain bad English:
I think our America is the numero uno once again - as a DUMBEST COUNTRY with DUMBEST SHEEPLE who want to be taken advantage of.
And it is not a political statement, just paraphrasing of Voltaire's "Common Sense is not so common"
P.S. /ES close tomorrow under 941.25 will confirm bearish price flip

Chart of the week - 10 year Treasury Notes

Firstly, few words "of wisdom" (how funny that is to hear from someone who has "Dumb Trader" engraved in his nick? Yup, that is what "DT" in DavidDT" stands for)

Why traders fail?  They have not formed THEIR OWN opinion, they follow short term market swings when putting on longer term trades, they read way too many "other guys/girls" trading blogs, in short - most of the "traders" have no conviction in their own trading ideas.  The point is - none is right all the time, form your opinion, stick with it or change it, control risk, but do it based on your own research with deep understanding WHY you do what you do, if you don't do that - the easiest way to handle trading would be to just give me your money (not for managing it - I am NOT financial advisor), because without YOU understanding WHAT and WHY and WHEN YOU are doing - you will end up broke, so if you just handle me your money at least someone you know might benefit from you not doing your home work.  No? OK, back to the charts...

Below are 2 charts of 10 year US Treasury Note Futures and, essentially the same of TNX (just in reverse)

They both tell us that this week might just mark possible meaningful move to the upside (and downside for yield)




Sunday, June 07, 2009

Anatomy of a (Losing) Trade

Very good article today in

Anatomy of a Losing Trade

James Kostohryz JUN 05, 2009 1:05 PM

I spent most of weekend by the pool, sunburns all over, I am even crankier than usual so, after bias disclosure I will let charts with DeMark indicators speak for themselves.  You all know how to interpret and use signals, and most importantly you all most definitely know how to control risk.

Bias disclosure:


Dollar, $VIX, 10and 30 years bonds.


BAC Mortgage commercials (I am done with AIG "10 years of laughter" indeed), financial system, CEOs, British Pound, Euro, broad market and particularly technology, financials and all garbage floating on the surface due to dollar/commodities "this time it is different again" suckers play.

2009-06-07-UUP_DAILY 2009-06-07-FXB_DAILY 2009-06-07-30y_daily 2009-06-07-10y_weekly 2009-06-07-EWZ_daily 2009-06-07-OIH_weekly 2009-06-07-QQQQ_weekly 2009-06-07-ES_weekly 2009-06-07-ES_daily

Don't forget to check back later tonight for new Discretionary Trader post.

Thursday, June 04, 2009

Topping out..yup...

Volume has been diminishing for over a month now, everyone big already positioned themselves short, now it is just a suckers game.

Most likely market will push up one more time tomorrow, I'll gladly complete my long puts and inverse UltraETFs positions and will be one happy camper...up to the day when CNBC clowns will start to blame bears yet again.

It is still possible to see SPX at 960sh and NDX at 1530sh, but the question is not IF market will start multi weeks decline, but WHEN and time left days if not hours.

Forewarned - forearmed.


And don't forget once mighty dollar which in spite of all odds will start leg up helping market's decline...

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

"Second freshness" Yesterday's SPX analysis members video

[The following video was uploaded at contributors website yesterday - so far right on spot.  Reposted here for the benefits of readers]


Video uploaded to Windows Live SkyDrive where "interested parties" can get it, double click it, watch it in web browser - that is an .exe file for lazy people who used to double clicking.  Of course, if you will not be scared away by seeing this message:


Downloading this file type (.exe) can potentially harm your computer.