Friday, October 24, 2008

"Everything we love we lose"

On Thursday October 23rd at 10:30AM our dog Taffy, lovely active healthy 5 years old Golden Retriever was left for grooming at "XYZ" Kennels "Pet Resort Hotel and Spa".
In less than 2 hours, at 12:15PM, we received a call that "Taffy passed away while in drying cage" ( Shall it be called a "dying" cage?)
The cause of acute (what is so "a-cute" about it?) death is still unknown, UConn Pathology Lab could not find any explanation, results of toxicology will be available no sooner than in 3-6 week.
For the last 4 years our family was going though the chain of sad, undeserved,untimely events - I don't think I have any faith left anymore.

For all the joy and loyalty - Thank You...
For our failure to protect you, please, forgive...
Rest in Peace Taffy...

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

(DIA) against Machine

It is plainly amazing how any fundamental decisions all in a sudden disappeared from day to day trading process and none, but machines (trading programs) is willing to trade.
This is 15 minutes (DIA) chart for illustration of precise following of DeMark Setups during last few days.

And here is daily (DIA) - is is in the process of forming symmetrical triangle, which usually serves as consolidation pattern, given recent huge drop, better chances, from ,my point of view are for beginning of move up after pattern is completed. It might happen as soon as today midday or tomorrow. (DIA) within this pattern might touch 8550 area.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

(LDK) & Other Solar Stocks

Anyone has a feeling that some of the solar sector stocks beaten down to oblivion are about to become hunted by momentum player again? (Of course they still alive - momentum players that is)
Looks like a nice trade with clear stop closer to $18.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

"Trade secrets revealed"

Over the past few years I've been receiving multiple emails asking me to explain in greater details what kind of technical  analysis I use in order to achieve substantial accuracy on direction and timing of major market turns and spotting trading opportunities in individual stocks.

We all heard "On the left side of the chart it is science, on the right side it is art"

That "right side" for me was always DeMark studies ( over the years I applied my own interpretations and some modifications to DeMark's indicators, but books below served as essential reference to most of my trading)

Book Reviews

Unlike other technical analysis books, DeMark's two volumes on his exclusive indicators give you ready-to-implement formulas, and he discusses the logic behind those ideas. Whereas other authors discuss head-and-shoulders ad nauseam, DeMark gives you new ideas. You can implement his indicators (most of which don't work all the time, unsurprisingly), and can then think of ways to improve them. Of course, in the end, you have to keep in mind that the market is more or less a legalized casino, where only a lucky few can come out ahead in the long run. Luck is probably the most important trading system you'll need.

If you're an experienced trader, you must read this book! If you trade based on any type of Technical Methodology, then this book should be on your book shelf. Granted, it could get complicated for novice traders, but once you've grasped the basics of Technical Analysis, don't hesitate to purchase this classic. Anyone that sees this title in the used section, grab it quick, the price is a true disparity!!

I've been struggling for weeks now to recreate many of Demark's indicators for the Ninjatrader platform in C# - relying soley on the original explanations in Tom Demark's book. There are a lot of very detailed logic rules for these indicators that , if you blink, you'll miss a step in the procedure. Jason Perl's book is exactly what I have been looking for.
He breaks down each indicator in a top down pseudo code step by step format that makes understanding and code translation a breeze. There are also numerous Q & A's that I found extremely insightful.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Hedge Fund Founder Retires

Andrew Lahde ran a hedge fund that had returns of 800% last year. He
just quit and published on-line this letter. A look into a mind that
is truly greater than mine.

"Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is
experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing
to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous
letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I
am writing to say goodbye.

Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a
hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund),
was quoted as saying, "What I have learned about the hedge fund
business is that I hate it." I could not agree more with that
statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit,
i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the
Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often)
truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly
received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and
Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior
supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to
find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God
bless America.

There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my
success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor
accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the
endless list those deserving thanks know who they are.

I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have
enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have
arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised
that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine;
I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass
nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck.
Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months,
they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which
they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices.
What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway.
Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I
do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten.
Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy

So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not
expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time
frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the
dissolution of the fund. And don't worry about my employees, they were
always employed by Mr. Springer's company and only one (who has been
well-rewarded) will lose his job.

I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to
participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market
right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse
for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines
and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from
the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was
destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years,
as well as my entire life -- where I had to compete for spaces in
universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management --
with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not.
May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be

On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest
proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation
was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years,
which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now
mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the
coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this
legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an
outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas
Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a
dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused
on improving government.

Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems
become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated
that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is
that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come
together to create a new system of government that truly represents
the common man's interest, while at the same time creating rewards
great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in
government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their
interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used
to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft's
near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is
clearly broken.

From Portfolio: Who Got Screwed in the Wall St. Bailout?
Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring
attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won't see it
included in BP's, "Feel good. We are working on sustainable
solutions," television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM's
similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years
for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced
from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is
the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The
original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was
printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II
by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war
was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-
sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in
this country?

Ah, the female. The evil female plant -- marijuana. It gets you high,
it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it
does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this
innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be
alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only
conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which
owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other
additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without
some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is
ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign
energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing
at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European
nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying
attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate
on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people,
let's stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly
become self-sufficient.

With that I say good-bye and good luck.

All the best,

Andrew Lahde

Friday, October 17, 2008

CNBC: "Beeeeest DOW week!!!"

If you don't like rants and like to wave "Star&Stripes full of holes" banner - don't read.
It is just sickening how low of opinion producers of CNBC shows have of Americans.

After DOW losing over 25% since just beginning of October, going up about 8% is a great ... achievement?

How about that in order to recoup losses of 25% - DOW shall go up over 33% just to break even? Just for October?

Why CNBC's women anchors voices have been trembling lately?
Why they swallowing every second word?
Are they having gun pointed to their heads?

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Get ready for sustainable move higher.

Not an insane spikes, not a short lived runup, but long awaited cease of volaility and market coming back to normalcy after complete and utterly insanity of late.

The fact that market was able to move higher today without "pre-expire" Plunge Protection Team actions is a very good news for Bulls.

Climb will start next week from Tech/Biotech ( A.K.A. QQQQ), Semiconductors (SMH), will be followed by MidCap (MDY), SmallCap(IWM), then (SPY), (XLF),(RKH) and finally in 2-3 weeks (OIH), (RTH) and (XHB) will follow.
Once again, no crazy stuff - just a steady move up starting next week.
I am fully invested in UltraLong ETFs as of last week [in order of positions sizes]
(QLD)[50%], (UWM)[25%, (YUG) [15%] and some individual stocks positions (totaling for just 10% of portfolio) - no options due to expected volatility crash on wild scale, that makes me 100% net long, no puts, no shorts, no margin indeed...
All positions obviously slightly underwater [about -12%] - but I fill very comfortable for as long as recent lows are not broken.
P.S. If my point of view will prove to be correct I might even use some margin for the amount of 1/2 profit I will have in my account - IF I'll have it.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

There is no day like tomorrow...

I'll be brief - IF Paulson and Co. ( A.K.A. "Unregulated Regulators") really understand anything at all, at least about equities markets, they shall than understand importance of establishing double bottom on decreased volume retest - and if so, and IF they have anything left in their pathetic academic "better do nothing than screw something up and be responcible" arsenal of water weapons, FED Fund rate cut down to 0.5% for example - the only day when they should do that is tomorrow.
If not - they (Paulson, Bernanke, Cox) will be written in the books of history not just as most incompetent and negligent regulators, but as ... as what they already are - I am trying to keep this blog family friendly.

And, if they really learned the lesson and USA ever again will attempt to become at least a part of the power it once was - they really need to read "Crime and Punishment" (Преступление и наказание) and if they really want to attempt to change something in this rotten environment (which I doubt) - better public education would be a very big plus (Well, it is objectionable to have smart citizens - they tend to think and criticize too much, Smith&Wesson or McDonald or Six Pack "culture" is way more convenient and profitable)

P.S. Too many run up sentences? Try better public education..."patience classes" for robbed hard working people would be a good fit thou...
Also new TV Show "Europe screwed up even more than USA" - would be helpful while sipping on aforementioned six pack - just watch out - one day it might just not be six pack you sucking on...

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Looking into not so distant past...(DIA)

It is not even 3 full months passed since the date of this post:
"CongratuFa...Lation - "we"'ve done NOTHING" (Pardon my language - that was the time to be worried, well, I am wrong - time to worry was LONG TIME AGO when something still could have been changed.)

This is the chart from June 25th post for easier comparison

And this is where we are today - as of Friday's open 99% of "Investors" ( "Buy and Hold" BagHolders) who bought DIA or related index fund during the last 11 years was at a loss (forget about dividends or I will have to mention inflation, sommes-nous d'accord?)

The only comparable periods were
Apr 1929 - Jan 1954 (25 years )
Mid 1965-End of 1983 (18 years)

So, my question is: How Joe Schmoe suppose to take care of his retirement if the only ones who were able to profit during such years were fat cats who has rubbed Joe in good time and got bailed out at Joe's expense in a bad time?

Is Social Security, nuh.. let's call it the right name - Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) - inflation adjusted now? No, no - REAL INFLATION adjusted?
Can corporations spell pension? At least corporations that still promise such, glad there are not many left - helps to avoid misunderstanding.

Oh, pardon me, I am obviously want to get something in exchange for years and years of hard work and don't want to die in a carton box on the street after draining all my retirement saving to buy medicines (That is why "THEY" want us to have 401Ks and IRAs - to take away from us later on, is not it so?) Surely not for you and me to have a good time in Golden Years (and I don't even want to find out what is so "Golden" about those years! One thing I am certain of is that if I can not hold now, at 50, I don't want to be next to myself at 70)

I gradually beginning to think that I will have to start to respect people who don't care about FICO, receive welfare, who work on cash and live in today - tomorrow we all equally screwed - at least they having fun today and WE, stupid taxpayers have nothing but hard work.

God Bless America and top 5% percent of still happy people...for how long may I ask?

Monday, October 13, 2008

Posted on Contributors site last few days

Here is how to be added to the real time "Regular Contributors Letter"

Monday, October 13, 2008

Speaking of "gaps"

Some gaps are different from other gaps. Common belief is that all most gaps tend to be filled with further longer term trend continuation later on.

I would look at it slightly differently - gaps after weekends/holidays on basically no news in the direction opposite to longer trend after prior business day exhibiting substantially increased volume might signal major trend reversals.

This morning gap might just be the one we have been waiting for - if I still had cash on my "longer term" accounts (such as IRAs) - I would be back in on the long side. Volumes are not huge yet, but that can be explained by credit /bond markets being closed - lots of traders need to see then "unfreeze" to step back into equities game.
But as you know my final chunk of cash (50%) was put to work n Friday afternoon.
So now I will just sit back and "relax" and wait and let stops to take care of holdings if I am wrong.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Looking for trades in financials

C is a buy tomorrow on dip to $12 area, completed TDCountdown.
BAC is a buy - double bottom.
GS is a buy at 88, completed TDCountdown.

Added Oct XLF16calls

$VIX new record 60.17 and climing

UYG TDSetup buy daily comleted

Looks like a day when everyone said: "Phuck it!"
I am buying XLF Oct16 calls in spades ( in spite of huge premiums) - for 10% of my trading account. XLF now 14.30

Short term buy signal on QQQQ

Desired fill price 32.50 +/-
Hard Stop under yesterday's low @31.78

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Interesting read

I wish I had a "reprint" agreement with Minyanville - the only investment site I read regularly, but since I don't - please, spend 5 minutes of your time and read this article.

Freaky Friday Potpourri: Chicken Little Skinned!

Pay attention to page #2

Superior State of Mind?


Friday, October 10, 2008

QLD confirmed bounce off desc trendline

QLD falling wedge intraday

Rally into the close or just quick pop and then selloff?

The last answer I'd like to know

When Jim Cramer and CNBC management had last health examination done? Specifically - mental assessment?
Jim Cramer: "If I had power to make decision I would move the markets up right now, just like that" [snapping fingers]

I begin to question if America does not deserve what it is going through if it let people like that to be on "Financial Network", manage companies, be in charge for decision making - I'd better stop now.
Social Apathy is killing this country...
Sorry, American hard working people - no power to you, not before, not now - ever?
Democracy? It only as good as people who suppose to safeguard it...

(SPY) is testing multiyear low

At the levels not seeing from 1997, 2002 lows.
this is a "real last stand" - Lord have mercy on our souls - no matter long or short we are...

Moved stops lower for QLD

Noted that QLD formed descending triangle intraday on falling volume - paired with my expectation of $VIX fading by the end of the day - decided to stay in long trades...for now

About to get stopped out of all today's positions

$VIX still on track

for moving substantially lower in about 1.5 -2 hours ( if nothing drastically changes)

Watch $VIX

I expect it to collapse withing next 3-4 hours, if that will NIT happen - I might be deserting this morning long positions. ( all straight equities/ETF - not messing with options now)

this MUST be the bottom - BUSH cannot bring it down!!!!!

XHB moving up

MOS, MON, CF positive

UNG, RIMM holding

All in UltraLong ETFs

Thursday, October 09, 2008

FIFO A.K.A. HomeBuilders

In the midst of the meltdown homebuilders ( CNBC says: "They were the reason, started is all, no, stupid greedy people in charge started it all and let "it" escalate" to the level of national and worldwide disaster) which started to signal problem first over 2 years ago, took a beating like none other - first, the very same homebuilders sold off as well with the rest of the market, but...surprise: most of homebuilders stocks did NOT undercut lowest lows, not just recent, but "absolute lows".

First I'd like to present slightly unusual chart ( one of the futures of ThinkOrSwim charting package) - chart of Beezer Homes MINUS Financial Spiders ETF XLF ( that is right - difference of two). As you see BZH in spite of market selloffs, corrections and so on steadily outperformed XLF, it is climbing in relation to XLF for most part of the year. Makes me think.





In light of that "discovery" which I believe under current market conditions pointing to homebuilders as being "strong group" take a look at few more charts - all of below represent defined risk long trades.





If not buying ( stepping in front of moving train) at least these stocks worth watching all the time, they might just provide reliable signal when "THIS" (selloff) is over.

And now for something completely different...

[ source site ]

CEO —Chief Embezzlement Officer.

CFO— Corporate Fraud Officer.

BULL MARKET — A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

BEAR MARKET — A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.

VALUE INVESTING — The art of buying low and selling lower.

P/E RATIO — The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.

BROKER — What my broker has made me.

STANDARD & POOR — Your life in a nutshell.

STOCK ANALYST — Idiot who just downgraded your stock.

STOCK SPLIT — When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.

FINANCIAL PLANNER — A guy whose phone has been disconnected.

MARKET CORRECTION — The day after you buy stocks.

CASH FLOW — The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.

YAHOO — What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.

WINDOWS — What you jump out of when you’re the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR — Past year investor who’s now locked up in a nuthouse.

PROFIT — An archaic word no longer in use.

Final "WashOut"?

Hell, I am about to throw in the towel - must be.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

"What and When" is the bottom?

"Bottoming" is the PROCESS.
It does not happen overnight, especially after humongous loss if credibility by people who were suppose to safeguard all the weak links. Instead - we are treating the very same people who screwed up like our own children, we have no choice but to forgive, and being Americans, to forget...and pay up...again...and again...
And just like in case of (I will be politically correct now) having "mentally challenged" children - we will be paying up all the way, we have no choice, we were left no choice...except for the difference that we might just stop "loving" our government and pull the plug one day...
Well, 'nough ranting, we can change nottin anyway.

Bottom after bear market (which is really just momentum/grows crowd performing panicky selling after being unpleasantly surprised that all "money making fertilizer Chinese cannot live without in reality is just another, pardon me, form of shit/tulips"

So, with momentum "hot shots" getting annihilated on yet another pipe dream ( like Pete Najarian's "Coal is a REAL Story"), market plunges and value investors, so called smart arses say their famous "I told you so" and they keep saying that until ...until valuations price in "unavoidable" Armageddon. So, value guys and girls ( like Karin Finnerman who thought of (C) as a value play since $27) stepping up to the plate and start buying with all the money they managed to keep while saying "I told you so"
That is component #1

When that begins to happen, the last shorts, who are smart and diligent, begin to cover positions they were holding for ages in order to protect profits they made by being smarter than hopeful idialistic late to the party idiots longs.
That is component #2.

And only after that bagholder "Mad Money" watching Joe Schmoe who was waving the flag all the way to the bottom and sold when Jane Schmoe divorced him for being an idiot and a gambler, so that Joe makes few extra dollars during few months he's been out of the market ( normally from 6 to 18 months - new money does not come easy) and then he decides to put cash back into mutual funds, of course by that time they normally 10-20% up from the point where Joe sold out. This is when "The new Big Thing" begins to develop.

And we all know how it ends up every single time, we heard it and, may be, said phrases like that ourselves: "I think I will retire at 50 with the way stock market/real estate/fertilizers/tulips are doing..."
Good luck suckers!
P.S. Valuations are really tempting now - start buying ...suckers!

Why this is the bottom?

Was not going to do any posts today and was not even going to look at the market, but instead - posted lots of "tags" on tagboard, added long positions to my and better half's IRA accounts.
Feeling better by the minute now and the last thing I needed to be convinced that market is about to get at least relief rally was spotting Ken Heebner on CNBC - that guy was not seeing since my "Faces To Remember" post back in end of June 2008.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Not impressed...delusional?

Have not slept much lately, so it'll be a short post.
I am totally unimpressed my relation of magnitude of decline today and, no matter what they say - total absence of volume.
In unconventional way it tells me that there are a lot of buyers staying on sidelines unwilling to play this "no rules" game until the balance of the market will be restored.
I am sticking with my "reversal/rally position, bleeding all over indeed, will be waiting first for "short ban" elimination and then till Friday after Yom Kippur.
No posts till Friday
P.S. If I am wrong and market really pricing in depression - I am not going to need that pile of worthless paper called "money" anyways. Old and stubborn I am...

Monday, October 06, 2008

S&P500 - The Last Stand?

If you are an investor who still believes that putting your money into stock market over the long period of time will produce better returns than any other type of assets - your faith is just about to be tested.
Cream of the crop of the best and largest companies of United Socialist States of America, S&P500 is at the critical historical point now.
Here is a 20 years monthly chart - you can see enormous ascending triangle.

Surprisingly enough today's selloff penetrated low side and managed to close above it.
This type of triangle might resolve in any direction (in spite of the common technicians' belief that it mostly resolves to the upside). Given current market conditions, idiotic short sale ban about to be lifted, Jewish Holidays (Rosh Hoshanah and Yom Kippur) coming to conclusion on Thursday night, likely FED Funds rate cut down to 1% and coordinated worldwide rate cuts I am tempted to say that S&P is starting fast and furious multi months leg up to about 1250 area.
If it happen and IF S&P will stall in that area and then reverse to the downside, it will confirm partial rise in triangle and unfilled gap to the upper side will signify following multi year selloff, doomsday, America #1 from the back of the list, stone age - you pick the name, but if THAT REALLY happen - we all will be sorry we came to that point.
Of course, for perpetual long term Bull as I am there might always be a different happy ending of "full retrace to the upper side of this triangle and then beginning of the biggest Bull Market America has ever seen.
Save this chart - our children will have an answer...

Senate Committee Member: "Mr. Fuld - don't you feel wrong about receiving almost $500,000,000 in different forms of compensation from the oldest American investment company you run into the ground?"
Mr Dick Fuld: [translation] "Go screw yourselves..."

I feel good about bottom today

Loaded up.
Looking at the face of ... (trying to be polite) optimist trader Peter Costa who has been favored by CNBC for yet to be known reason other than pumping “hope” from the floor for the entire duration of Bear Market - so, looking at his face and trembling hands - I decided to move 50% of mine and my better half IRA accounts from cash to QLD, UYG, UWM and some others. ( Still 50% in cash in IRA accounts)
Keep in mind that if latest info on “Short ban” is correct and ban will be lifted on Oct 8th - it is no coincidence with the last day of Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur when lots of traders will be back on the floor. Coupled with “unexpected rates cut” it might propel major indexes 10-15% in no time.
That is it for the post :)

Friday, October 03, 2008

New short term bottom on Monday

If nothing changes Monday/Tuesday might well be another short term bottom