Monday, October 06, 2008

S&P500 - The Last Stand?

If you are an investor who still believes that putting your money into stock market over the long period of time will produce better returns than any other type of assets - your faith is just about to be tested.
Cream of the crop of the best and largest companies of United Socialist States of America, S&P500 is at the critical historical point now.
Here is a 20 years monthly chart - you can see enormous ascending triangle.

Surprisingly enough today's selloff penetrated low side and managed to close above it.
This type of triangle might resolve in any direction (in spite of the common technicians' belief that it mostly resolves to the upside). Given current market conditions, idiotic short sale ban about to be lifted, Jewish Holidays (Rosh Hoshanah and Yom Kippur) coming to conclusion on Thursday night, likely FED Funds rate cut down to 1% and coordinated worldwide rate cuts I am tempted to say that S&P is starting fast and furious multi months leg up to about 1250 area.
If it happen and IF S&P will stall in that area and then reverse to the downside, it will confirm partial rise in triangle and unfilled gap to the upper side will signify following multi year selloff, doomsday, America #1 from the back of the list, stone age - you pick the name, but if THAT REALLY happen - we all will be sorry we came to that point.
Of course, for perpetual long term Bull as I am there might always be a different happy ending of "full retrace to the upper side of this triangle and then beginning of the biggest Bull Market America has ever seen.
Save this chart - our children will have an answer...

Senate Committee Member: "Mr. Fuld - don't you feel wrong about receiving almost $500,000,000 in different forms of compensation from the oldest American investment company you run into the ground?"
Mr Dick Fuld: [translation] "Go screw yourselves..."