Thursday, October 24, 2013

If not now then … never? LOL

Two charts – as you can see on weekly SPY rose 200% of wave 3

and the same on daily – quite coincidental to call it coincidence? Staying put at least till Monday.






I’ll be damned – same chart – two weeks interval – we are right at the wave 3 target!



Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Mama … just killed the … market



This … is… the … only … chart… we …

well – not “need to see”, but rather “want to see” now


DOW JONES non-industrial had a red day right at 72.6% max pain level and TDSetupSell 9


Keeping fingers crossed




P.S. That /NKD short was just … PERFECT!

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

I'm Going Slightly Mad



WEnt through the list of few ETFs – they all have one thing in common (may be not “all”, but 9 out of 10)

They are at 9 of daily sell setups or 13 countdown sells or right at or closing under TDSTs.




VIX – again – bounced right off 2 days TDST





In spite of strong urge to cover all short positions and take 1-2 months vacation … I pressed my short position with /NKD short @14850 – I even had to wire money into my trading account (had few long individual stocks positions in my main - “non-trading account” (which is doing quite much better than my trading one oy vey )



Saturday, October 19, 2013

SPX last stand – 1750 area

When I was thinking of the the phrase for the title of this post I caught myself coming up with some cute headers, but they all had one word in common: “HOPE”


That is when I realized that “this is it” – there are no more shorts, no more bears, no more non-believers in powers of FED and endless ticks of rulers and cowardness of GOP and … and … and ..

In short – only complete stubborn idiot like me or die hard bears might still entertain an idea of market ever coming down, let alone – “hard”.


And, I think this is what constitutes the turning point ( don’t get me wrong – I am not a perma bear, but I VERY stubborn and if I am about to  give up – THAT takes A LOT).


Therefore there is no “hope” word … just “last stand” which for anyone a little fluent with the language is … pretty much the same as “last hope”….


Oh well … so be it


Thursday, October 17, 2013

FartBook (FB) Short

Market is finally topping out, of course it had to do that in the most painful way for bears or, as a matter of fact, even for "just short" and it has been and still is exhausting trade, which again, was not trade in the best possible way - intention (documented) to close out shorts at SPX 1640 was used to pave road to financial hell where I temporary am, but it comes with the territory. It is the best illustration that trader might be correct and due to lack of discipline lose money. It is all in our heads...


Back to FB short

Nice confluence of sells on multiple timeframes

Weekly(with stop at 54 )



Daily - not so clean - second attempt to break prior setup's TDRL and day 11 of Sequential Sell Countdown


And last, but not least - 2 days interval, my favorite. Made nice chunk of change on last Sell Setup (yellow arrow), now Combo Sell 13. Stop points to the same 54 as weekly chart.




Monday, October 14, 2013

Charles Nenner interview


Charles Nenner  August 2013

"We had a target of 1,720 on the S&P, so once we were [at] about 1,700 we sold all the stocks," he said. "The sentiment [is] too extreme. The market is very risky, so we don't go in anymore. We've been out now for the last three, four months and we're just standing aside."


Friday, October 11, 2013


Yup… the answer I’d like to know…


on Wed 9th evening in

Market update - bounce time?

I wrote:

Now there is a consolidation/slight bounce attempt, but I do not believe downside is over.

But ... paranoid as I am I most likely will cover a lot of positions by the end of this week.



“Slight bounce attempt” – THIS is the best illustration how even just writing about market moves one can instill his desires as "where and how one sees market going…


SO, correctly predicting that bounce is coming and ignoring that it might be not just “slight bounce attempt” – I effectively

1. Did not act DURING the day

2. Underestimated market forces by so much that decided “to close a lot of short positions by the END of the week”


Note to myself – there is no better time to do things I intend to do than NOW.


Price paid …. huge


Lesson learned?


Stay tuned  … for weekend post

Wednesday, October 09, 2013

Market update - bounce time?

So we huffed and puffed and hit (or almost hit) daily DTSTs today an multiple indexes


IWM and QQQ were further from DTSTs and therefore fell more than SPY and DIA.

Now there is a consolidation/slight bounce attempt, but I do not believe downside is over.

But ... paranoid as I am I most likely will cover a lot of positions by the end of this week.

Stay tuned - more to come


2013-10-09_1954 2013-10-09_1953_001 2013-10-09_1953 2013-10-09_1952

Wednesday, October 02, 2013

There is no day like tomorrow...

Below are multiple charts having the very same thing in common - 4 of them have rising wedges with partial rise from lower trendline, and one - "the proxy of market strength" - IWM has a rising channel and partial bounce not reaching top trendline


 2013-10-02_1742 2013-10-02_1741 2013-10-02_1739 2013-10-02_1745 2013-10-02_1744


May be market needs a little musical motivation...