Thursday, July 31, 2008

Never try to catch a falling knife - (TIE)

That is unless you have clear understanding why you REALLY want to do that and know precisely "where and when you want to catch it" and "where and when you will swallow your pride and get out with a loss"

One such trade I am very close to take is - going long (TIE) - that is a very scary hopeless slide you see on the chart.
( I did quick long trade in (TIE) few days ago - it was sent out in "extras letter" )



May be as soon as tomorrow - under these conditions
1. It will NOT close ABOVE 11.85
2. It will not close below 10.19
3 Volume will not be way above average
preferred entry price is 10.70 - 11.40

I WILL close that trade if:
1. Price will fall over 80c from tomorrow's close
2. Trade will not move in my favor within next 2 weeks

These are basic conditions - there are few more I will be watching for before I buy in
DavidDT

Placing stops on the trade

That is a very popular topic among traders - opinions vary widely.

This is my approach - the moment I enter the trade I ...DO NOT place stop loss order.
Why?
I've been a part of this deceptive exciting game called stock market long enough to know that HARD stops placed with your broker ( it does not matter that some brokers claim that "stop orders are kept on their in house servers" ) either present great additional chance to enhance stock movement by "locals" or it will shake you off on intraday noise. And don't forget - stop orders mostly set to fire on "bid value" and you will be wasting your time trying to prove to your broker based on Time&Sales history that there was no trade at "activation price" ( All it takes - lower the bid a notch and easy shares are in the Market Makers hands )

Another reason for not placing stops AFTER you acquired position is that in this case it signifies that BEFORE placing the trade, you, most likely, had NO IDEA about risk/reward on that trade - you MUST know STOP price BEFORE you place any trade, swing or day, long or short - PERIOD.

SO, what do I do?
It varies with market conditions - bull, bear or dead money market ( which is really - bear market of a kind) - but my general approach - before I place the trade I have a "Mental Stop price" - which, in MOST cases I WILL honor on market close ( or if it is a real short term trade - hour end or half an hour end )

There are advantages and disadvantages to this approach

Advantages:
No "shaken off on noise"
Better confidence in the trade - you have a plan
You are not glued to the screen all the time during market time ( as oppose to not having stops based on hourly or daily closes and just torturing yourself every second with eternal question - to close or not to close)
Also, since most of the traders really trade based on DAILY charts ( I use weekly as well and..don't laugh - monthly ) - is it prudent to close the trade based on short lived intraday movement?

Disadvantages
You might have a loss as oppose to "noise reduction"
You HAVE to be capable to watch the trade at certain time of the day - so, no trading while boss is not looking - he might call you at 3:55 and in lamers terms you are ...well, you know )

Does this work? It works for me in this type of psychotic multidirectional lost in space market man made bear market.

DavidDT

P.S. I really long overdue with editing of

"Breakout play" interpreted

and

"My trading style"

posts written at the time of moderate Bull Market - I am getting quite a few emails ( I visually imagine raised eyebrows ) with expression of total confusion due to my current trades having nothing to do with what was described in aforementioned posts.

Opening Gaps

As you all know if not for Biotech today, NASDAQ Composite would be down with other major indexes. Just now I scrolled through some of biotech names trading higher on "who is next M&A" speculations. Most of them just opened higher...

Gaps during the the week, especially "mass gaps" never hold, that is why today I bought puts on some of over extended biotech names. Also, in spite of (XLF) most likely being stuck in the range for some future (?) since I am an action junkie I bought (XLF) puts and some (QQQQ) puts.

"The theory of gaps" ( in my interpretation :) teachs that we may put more trust into gaps on Mondays or after holidays when traders have some extra time to logically evaluate events.

So..I am "slightly" short as of now ( I have multiple long calls positions in individual stocks )

Is Market "Bottom" in?

Endless discussions on all business channels, in subways, coffee shops ( what's left of those anyways).
Do we care?
I do, and it matters even for short term trading - I like to trade WITH the market.
So what do I think?
Since that early morning of July 16th when I was long up to my neck in anything "financials/homebuilders related" expecting that "second week of July rally"

Financials (XLF) have had enough?

I tend to think that UNLESS (XLF) will break that lower "line in the sand" - worst for financials is over. That is why I take more long positions, than short since that day and add on pullbacks, no matter how scary it looks at a time. Will I continue to do the same? I don't know - I am just a dimb trader who does not know what he will do tomorrow and does not remember what he was doing yesterday.

Is this "THE bottom"?
Why would we care so much? It "MIGHT BE", BUT - it does not mean that "BEAR MARKET IS OVER".
It is always the same - fall, rally, fall, rally, then - endless boring consolidation to wash off bad taste and erase memories of crimes in order to start stealing shareholders money again in a "newly announced Bull Market"
( NO - it is NOT a BULL market, we've been in a bear market for over 20 years now, most importantly - in the bear market for Honest Decent Hard working Americans who are not "prospering", not for a long time, but "trying to make ends meet" or just plain "SURVIVE")

Below is the chart of (XLF) as of this morning - 2 weeks later and almost 50% higher.
As for financials for long trade - I am out, upside is not as attractive as before ( $23-24 is not something I am willing to bet my money on)

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

What are you doing in your bedroom

is none business, but yours ... and of your government.

[this is truly amazing - please, do read ]

Senate Housing Bill Requires eBay, Amazon, Google, and All Credit Card Companies to Report Transactions to the Government

http://www.freedomworks.org/newsroom/press_template.php?press_id=2571

Does it make you sick to your stomach?
It did not make me - I've been fed up for a long time now...
Still wasting your time voting for the next ... [ you fill in the blanks ]

Quick rant...

CNBC quoting Greenspan's "there are 50% chance that we are in recession"
That guy was in charge for over 20(?) years?
CNBC is a "business channel"?

Let me rephrase: "We might be in recession, we might not be in recession, I don't know if I know what they say I have to know"

Lord, have mercy on my soul...

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

NASDAQ 100 - where to? (29/07/08 Update)

As I speculated in this post NASDAQ 100 and market in general moved higher today, lower oil, short sellers fears of SEC ingenious actions...whatever.
I still think (QQQQ) has no real reason to go above $46 this week, even more, it is quite likely that tomorrow after 10:35 Crude Oil Inventories Report a lot of things might change, especially if technical analysis hold water and OIL/NAT GAS are about to justify recent buy signals.
Should (QQQQ) break $46 barrier it might go as high as $47.50, this is where it will become interesting ( It is like it has not been "bloody interesting" already )

DavidDT

P.S. I plan to do a detailed write up on broker I am using - after many years of searching my quest to find "The best online broker" is over.

SEC on short selling

[ following is not a legal transcript, it has nothing to do with real highly respected SEC, mistakes intentionally have been made, Trading to Win cannot guarantee accuracy - just like "not that SEC" ]

"SEC Letter to short sellers." ( fictional of course )

Dear fellows short sellers citizens of Clownmerica.
We totally understand why you in such a huge numbers are so sad, bitter, frustrated.

You spending a lot of time and mental efforts by being pro-active in digging out the truth from corporate balance sheets and P&L statements;
you use your brains to figure out that corporate earnings grow mostly due to one non-profitable company acquiring another even less profitable company;

you truly believe that borrowing money to deadbeats borrowers by brain dead exotically creative financial companies lead to destruction of credit and financial stability;

you understand that due to demographic change since inception of the way how unemployment is calculated the real number is at least twice of that official;

you don't care for government CPI numbers, because you lived long enough to remember postal stamp being at 17c back in 1990 and it is, what - 46c in 2008? And you suspect that it does not add up with "3% average" inflation;

you know that "buy and hold" and great historical examples of major indexes returns is just another "sell to the idiots" campaign, because inflation adjusted returns are negative, not even speaking of artificially enhancing return of indexes by removing openly pathetic companies and inserting not yet openly pathetic ones;

you don't watch CNBC except for the moments when you want to tell your kids" "This is baaaad - you should not watch it..ever...";

you know that when everyone is getting rich in oil/sugar/google/internet/tulips - there is none left to buy and everyone is getting broke;


We, SEC understand all the risks you take:

you going short knowing that company might be bought overnight and you will lose 40% of your money in the blink of an eye;

you are responsible for paying dividends for the company net worth of which totals to that dividend amount;

you were oppressed by "up tick rule" because you are smart and know true from lie as oppose to patriotically vicious bulls and you don't need unfair advantage bulls have had forever;

you have been blamed for destroying companies by idiots and criminals who destroyed those companies and fired you, whistle blowers, before final collapse;



We, The SEC in light of total understanding of all of the above, but being totally oriented to please the richest ( not necessary the smartest, but having a good stories "how they personally made their fortunes") and, due to political reasons - the poorest ( not always dumbest just totally financially illiterate)

We, the SEC would like to "improve" "you have to SECURE borrowing before selling short" rule which has been in place for ages and we never enforced it in real life
to "you have to BORROW before selling short";

That, dear fellows short sellers, will change nothing at all, except it will make life of financial companies you are shorting much better since they will be collecting margin interest not on "T+3", but on "T+0" basis and will laugh all the way to the bank - at you, unfortunate people with brains.

Is not that what we,
all who is in power, big and small, politicians, CEOs, all kind of big and small bosses, everyone who has any little bit of power OVER YOU and smart enough to wave the flag into your tired face, is not that what we DO?

Laughing all the way to the bank?

DavidDT

[ preceding is not a legal transcript, it has nothing to do with real highly respected SEC, mistakes intentionally have been made, Trading to Win cannot guarantee accuracy - just like "not that SEC" ]

Monday, July 28, 2008

NASDAQ 100 - where to?

Another not such a pleasant day due to multiple reasons.
Somehow few of my former co-workers decided to call me on the same day ( I try to stay in touch with lots of really decent people no matter how long ago we worked together).
Topic, strangely, was the same:
"They underpay while we work, they try to convince us that they do us a favor by exploiting us, we getting triple taxed, our pensions are taken away, and when even after scamming us they lose money - they kick us out like we are stray dogs"

So very sad and even sadder that government instead of helping citizens who really need help keeps helping the very same companies who neglect interest of people and country and the reason for doing so I believe is that this is where governments officials retirement money is - corrupt incompetent companies should not go bust in order to protect "their" future.

Sometimes I am just wondering - except for the period from 1947 to 1959 was it ever a "Golden Age" in America? When decent people had decent jobs and decent life?

Well, according to Donny Deutsch my old friends are most likely lazy ignorant scam of the Earth who just don't want to become millionaires (by selling garbage people don't need) or presidents (by promising things they will not do) - because in this country everyone can be all he/she wants to be. Their fault...Let us laugh at France - we all know that "French can not be trusted" ( When French have 35 hours work week and few months of vacation and, most importantly - LIFE )

'Nough said - back to markets.
"Happy" to report that my Aug (UNG) calls will most likely expire half worthless in spite of start, in my opinion, of (UNG)'s move up ( Sep calls will do fine). (USO) moved up as was "explained" by knowing people due to Nigeria's militants - what a surprise, just wondering what militants got to do with (UNG) move.
I sent intraday email with my observation of (USO) buy signal as of today.

Glad I stayed away from going short financials, yes, (XLF) went bust for 2 days, but I think SEC tomorrow will proceed ignorantly with "extension of enforcing rules for short selling" and, most importantly will extend it to bigger part of the market. It does not really matter much, but market might just use it as an excuse to move up.

Speaking of "move up - (QQQQ) formed, what I think is "inverted roof" and if that is what I think it is - NASDAQ will move up tomorrow.



This low volume volatile moves are getting under my skin, really...
Might have to visit my niece - she graduated MIT, but decided to move to Paris ( not the one in Texas )

DavidDT

Sunday, July 27, 2008

Can charts tell the future?

Dizzy rainy melancholic regular Sunday in rural uptight Connecticut - nothing to do nowhere to go - watched "The Messenger: The Story of Joan of Arc" - one of my favorite movies. It has everything good movie suppose to have - Faith, Betrayal, Corruption, Blood ( no love thou ). Why it always takes so long to recognize The Great - burnt in 1431 - canonized 500 years later.

Anyhow, the theme that interests me most for the purpose of this post is:
Joan of Arc: "I saw so many signs I wanted to see"

We, technicians, looking at the charts and we seek the truth, but while doing so we color interpretations with personal opinions, preferences, likings and believes.

Is it possible to justly interpret the chart or we just diluting ourselves and simply creating PLAN OF ACTIONS?

If XYZ goes above ... THEN
do that;
ELSIF XYZ goes below ... THEN
do this;
ELSE
sit and wait;
END IF:

[pardon me for IF statement - as I am a former programmer it is in my blood forever, damn it!]

My friend Brandt from Trade Guild just today posted a great article on advantages and disadvantages of Fundamental and Technical Analysis - highly recommended reading. He used (HOV) - [HOVNANIAN ENT INC] as an example.

My opinion is that longer term technical analysis hold more water ( as longer term charts have less noise and not so easily manipulated by huge institutional money flow )

That being said I have a "trivia question":
Using the very same (HOV) Brandt from Trade Guild used - where and when do YOU think it is going - we know the PAST - can we see the FUTURE?

My take is: somewhere in the middle of August it will start continuous move up
Would really love to hear what YOU think.

Trading to Win at Thomson Reuters

[ one of the readers of this site sent me an email with these links, if not for that I would not even be aware that some posts have been featured at Reuters Thomson.
Though "Vanity is not my favorite sin" it is nice to know that my modest efforts have been noticed by reputable financial publication. Of course, out of main content/prior posts it does not do too much justice. Oh well.. Thanks Reuters!]

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Trading in the Bear Market

Alt Energy Stocks Update and than some...

SEC on short selling

NASDAQ 100 - where to? (29/07/08 Update)

NASDAQ 100 - where to?

Working on railroads (BNI),(CSX),(UNP)

Metals and laggards

As (GE) goes so goes the market?

House Passes Energy Speculation Bill

Mr. Cramer insists "he is an idiot"? Part 2 ( Shippers)

Look for a motive

(AMD) - the stock that never stops...falling

My readers are wiser than I am...

Just to put "an issue" with that "infamous email" to the rest.

Overreacted is the word, I have no right to be so sensitive to "criticism", when I constantly criticize "current state of affairs", like they say "never speak of religion - you never know who you are going to offend".

In my few years of blogging that was the first email with such a language and racial context and I was simply not prepared to handle it properly. ( Back in the time I left my home country due to similar officially tolerated conditions, it is a well known historical fact that people prefer to blame someone easier accessible than to try to understand the real reason, oh well "Human nature never changes" ).

I am eternally grateful for unexpectedly large number of "support email/comments" - it is in the "bad times you know who your friends are" ( Title of this post is actually partially "stolen" from one of the comments).

Looking at the glass half full - if "that" did not happen, I would never discover something I am going to address in the next post. ( One of the readers sent me a "mystery link" - boy was I surprised)

Thank you all for being wiser than I am...
DavidDT

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Shocked...

Right after I posted this:
http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2008/07/if-you-happy-and-you-know-it.html
I received email ( without real email address, but one of those 1jifjxm3fwefqxx@xcjfelqwtv.com addresses), here is SOME of it ( I cannot post all text due to very explicit language )

quoted below:
"You dumb stupid ass crooked short America hater dirty immigrant.
You don't believe in God, nor in America
After tremendous flood of bad news from the cornerstone of American Culture(???) financials,
right when the worst is over assholes like you continue to spread shitty news in order to make some silver coins on True Americans difficulties.
burn in HELL"

W O W
I am speechless, I think some people don't want to be helped and some, just don't DESERVE to be SAVED...

I am DONE with blogging for a while.

Hooray - "HOUSING" BILL



Congress approves "Housing" bill, Bush uses opportunities and threaten to veto - he wants to be remembered for something useful for once, of course he will not ( will not veto and thanks God he will NOT be remembered for anything, but BAD and WRONG )
Why do they call it "Housing bill" when it just saves crooked financial institutions, their corrupt incompetent CEOs and likes, big shareholders ( small fishes ALREADY lost money), Mosilos of the world and deadbeat brain dead "homeowners" who should have never owned a house or even a credit card on the first place?

Why I feel so STUPID and betrayed after been fiscally responsible ( STUPID), paying taxes ( STUPID), putting together 20% downpayment ( STUPID), rolling with the punches (STUPID), never filed ch11 ( STUPID)...list goes on
and WHY when I was working my butts off to make timely mortgage payment none was bailing ME out?
Why I feel so stupid for been forced to pay for someone who I THOUGHT was stupid, but - what do I know - STUPID IS ME!

[short story]
My neighbor was working for one of "do not short financial institutions". He was let go about 2 years ago on the lame ground of "Internet misuse" ( he is 57 years old - he might have been playing games over the network all the time) - along with another 30% of highly paid specialists in the same not so fine establishment...what a coincidence..most of those positions were filled back very quick by "BetteL educated pLofessionals who undeLstand youL conceLns" ( 2 for 1 - you know the story )

He applied for unemployment, but was denied on a ground of "willful violation of company's policies"
He appealed, went to "hearing" - was faced with "bright" state employee with proud title "I am in charge for your destiny and I will rule in favor of bigger taxpayer - don't you feel STUPID?" Was faced on hearing by 2 lawyers, 1 chief "investigative" officer, HR person and 3 of his former dumb, really dumb bosses.
Case lost.

Then it gets better...in 3 months his wife losses her job..same "benefits story there"
( I just wondering if it is counted in "unemployment claims"). They try to find comparable jobs..for a while..then they DID take shitty jobs with shitty salaries...just to be able to pay for food, but not house
They had 30 fixed mortgage UNDER 6%, house was bought back in 1998, 401Ks ( now IRAs), College funds for their 3 children, smart, energetic, BELIEVERS in SYSTEM and GREAT AMERICA.

...They sold their house 2 weeks ago - Mike ( my former neighbor ) once told me - that was their DREAM HOUSE.

During our last handshake he said: "WHY?.."

WHO BAILED THEM OUT?



Detective Del Spooner: Is there a problem with the Three Laws?
Dr. Alfred Lanning: The Three Laws are perfect.
Detective Del Spooner: Then why would you build a robot that could function without them?
Dr. Alfred Lanning
: The Three Laws will lead to only one logical outcome.
Detective Del Spooner
: What? What outcome?
Dr. Alfred Lanning
: Revolution.
Detective Del Spooner
: Whose revolution?
Dr. Alfred Lanning: *That*, Detective, is the right question. Program terminated.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

If you happy and you know it...

"They" know it too...
And when we all know - what happens? "They" will do everything possible to take YOU to the cleaners.

Especially those of you ( and me) who was smart enough to read this blog and recognize potential to capitalize on unprecedented short covering/bottom bouncing/sector rotating RALLY!!!
Rally in financials, homebuilders and on the shoulders of collapsing OIL - Airlines ( Brandt from Trade Guild was really happy with AMR performance and now I am hiding from him because he sold one day too early ).

NOW WHAT?

You know, I was not really keen on NASDAQ participation in the bounce - it DID not.
Now I am getting disturbing ( but not "unexpected" signals ) that "rally" is OVER and previously I was kind of expecting NASDAQ 100 to attract some buying interest.
BUT...looking at QQQQ action, I think it will quickly pop tomorrow morning after (QCOM) and (AMZN) Earnings and then join whatever was rallieng last 8 days in the new downtrend. Unless...unless (QQQQ) will break to the upside above 46 area and manage to STAY there till the end of this week ( then I'd call it consolidation with possible QQQQ uptrend in few weeks)

The bottom line:

bye-bye financials/homebuilders/airlines

hello oil, nat gas, gold and other "stuff"

smart people buy when they know that global economy collapsing, dollar does not worth paper it printed on ( no matter what Paulson wants you to think real inflation is pretty much at 14% now ), real unemployment is 3 times higher than official numbers, and last 30 years stock market was going mostly down due to inflation and diminishing currency and that could not even be "doctored" by our incompetent and corrupt government by viciously rotating "good" companies into major indices and "bad ones" out.
Never mind "dreams and hopes" Internet bouble of 1999 ( that kind of boubles exists when people are hopeless and desperate )
It is so sad that for the last 30 years we got used to
feel like crap
live like crap
and be treated like crap
and your salary has been divided between 3 "better educated professionals" ( better educate my a...) who "undstaN yoU conceLns", but CNBC told you you WILL BENEFIT on a long run ( if you, save you God from that, live long enough)

But we still keep diluting ourselves thinking that "We Can, and we Are, and we Have"

this is exactly what "1%" wants you to think, this is why they fighting now to save housing ( what's left of it) and finances

THIS IS ALL AN ILLUSION - STOP BEEN SO FULL OF YOURSELVES
DO YOU KNOW WHAT HAPPENED TO ROME WHEN THERE WAS NO "BREAD AND SHOWS" LEFT?
DO YOU KNOW THAT IT IS NOT "US" WHO IS LAUGHING "LAST"?

Just to finish this post on a positive note
CONGRATULATIONS, MINUMUM FEDERAL WAGE HAS BEEN RAISED TO $6+
and YOU are not the one who is getting it - that is the GOOD NEWS.
(putting up with abuse much longer? Call 1-800-who-cares )

Day is as good as any..to buy (UNG) and (USO)

Pumped (UNG) long calls position up to 10% of port, bought (USO) long calls for about 4% of port total value.
Sold last chunk of (XLF)/(XHB) long calls, not at the best price, but ... you'll never get exact top or bottom ...
Started (ALJ) long calls position, got those on a cheap due to (TSO) yet another laggard performance

July 23rd 2008 Morning update

Had a very strong urge to get on cash even before market open -
sold outright stocks positions: (UYG),(XHB) - not saying that financials rally is over right now right this moment - but ...don't want to be a pig.

(DNDN) waking up?

Will attempt to beef up my refiners long calls position with long calls on (ALJ)
Also, (GLBL) on my watch list might be close to reversal.
Still long calls
(ZOLT), 1/2 (AMLN), (CIEN), (CPSL), (DNDN), (MPEL) <==will be losing, most likely today, big (QQQQ) , (SIGM), (TSO), (UNG) <-==not happy so far

This is "The President" - oh my :(


and this is how people on YouTube react to current administration:
daanman2 (50 seconds ago) Show Hide
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Bush will get what he deserves, I think he has started getting it already. He is an absolute idiot
newmac (25 minutes ago) Show Hide
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and he thinks its all funny; and so does his flock of sheep
jtilak (49 minutes ago) Show Hide
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its because we built too many houses!
Cheapz5 (1 hour ago) Show Hide
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And, the winner of this year's best "Synthetic Hologram Stand-Up Comedy Act" goes to...

... (dundundunnnnnnnnn)...

... G.W.B!... um... We're sorry to announce that G.W. couldn't be here to accept his award (due to the fact that he's no longer in the country); although his double has been doing such a fantastic job, over the past seven years. We feel it's only fair that he accepts it...

... Thank You All & Good Night!...
lquidgrl (1 hour ago) Show Hide
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I think Bush is possibly an aliem without a soul, disguised as a "good old boy" They stole the stupidest jack ass from a farm imitated his common sense and made it into the human form we now call Bush....if he says "we come in peace" im gonna barf!
SiouxBwoi (3 hours ago) Show Hide
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lmfao i love the stupid shit bush says...makes me laugh.
arrogantenoble (3 hours ago) Show Hide
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do those people laughing realize how fucked up they are?
darealdjnutz (4 hours ago) Show Hide
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Hopefully America will remove their head from their asses and stop voting for anyone in the Bush family. Hell is waiting for them, but let's hope we are finished with them.
GrownupPhan (4 hours ago) Show Hide
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Thomas Frank has an excellent article in Harprer's about this kind of government incompetence being the plan. It previews his new book coming out next month. Mother Jones also had an excellent article in the current issue about how this crisis was no accident.
DRDNIBOY (4 hours ago) Show Hide
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REPULICANS SUCK!

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

What do I know...

Markets works in mysterious ways...
Most of the long calls positions mentioned in this post

Working on railroads (BNI),(CSX),(UNP)

except for (TIE) and (UNG) worked out quite nicely. ( But I am not to concern about these two - (UNG) will reverse - I have Aug/Sep calls and (TIE) - even if that will not happen - these positions are "in full compliance" with risk/money management - less than 3% of portfolio each - as oppose to huge (XLF)/(RKH) long calls positions I was holding during last 8 (?) days - that position accounted for over 45% of portfolio, I did have few unpelasant moments, but as result it produced over 230% return on TOTAL PORTFOLIO VALUE in less than 8 days...w o w... take THAT to the bank!)

Tomorrow morning I will be 80% on cash and depending on my tonight's research MAY ( or may NOT) open long calls position in (USO).
Financials have greatly shifted risk/reward ratio and lost all interest to me as of now
, unless I decide to go short. ( I still have 8 days old long outright UYG position in my pension fund - where I don't trade as much as in my primary trading account )
Nasdaq MIGHT take a helm ...some..but it will NOT be as exciting ( no peeing in the pants :) as financials run ...WAS. ( I guess that is about it for financials for now )

I might even take another vacation ( my last vacation was interrupted by my mother's illness AND a great chance to capitalize on financials bottom)

P.S. I just cannot believe that (AAPL) @149.4 AH which I bought yesterday after ER and sold this morning @152.80 made it all the way up to $162 - what do I know...never been too patient ( AXP ringed in few % profit as well - that I just set sell order and it fired up while I was taking my "beauty sleep" :-)

P.P.S
My friend Brandt from Trade Guild sees some "value" in crude oil refineries, but that trade is for "Fast and Furious" - if oil will go up there will be not much upside there except for short lived short squeezes

Answering emails and Subscription status update.

Among different emails I am getting there is a very disturbing number of emails with the very same question:
"Why, since you have such a success rate with calling markets/sectors reversals you are not profiling more individual stocks trading ideas?"

Here is my answer, if it is not obvious:
"If market/sectors is in the vicious selloff - even the best stock picker's attempt to go long on the best in the world stock is destined to lose money and cause frustration and mental blindness when it is time to pick another trade.
Figuring where/when markets are going is far more difficult multidimensional puzzle solving of which leads to greater and more consistent profits.

Also, I do NOT recommend ANY TRADES nor endorse trading based on market views expressed on this site - this is my personal, publicly available trade preparation information, I use it for my own trading, I do NOT sell any advise ( though I am happily answering tons of emails daily in expense to my personal quality time). Some people who know how much research goes into information on this site are regularly contributing via PayPal, but that is NOT required to be able to read this site.

As an additional "perk" I have provided for a long time "Free Real Time Email" with updates to this site delivered straight into your mailbox right when it was posted and extra intraday email not available on this site.

This "Free Real Time Email" will NO LONGER be free, anyone wishing to continue to recieve real time emails will have to subscribe at a monthly price of $21.50 beginning August 1st. This amount is peanuts compared to amounts of money some people lose on the regular basis, like they say "saving a nickel losing a dollar".
Regular site contributors need not to worry about "subscribing" - you will continue to recieve emails - actually if "regular contributors" will choose to subscribe - I will LOSE money :)

RSS site feeds will be REMOVED on August 1st as well, no "My Yahoo" or "FeedBurner", just plain ole site to see by visiting it 20 times a day to find updates faster.

As a free alternative I will try to work out a deal with "Fast Money", "Mad Money" e.t.c so you would be able to watch those shows ABSOLUTELLY FREE and make money by FADING their ideas and listening for "PAST TENSE" explanations "why THAT happenED and how they KNEW about it ALL ALONG".

Thank you
P.S. I'd like to thank those who have chosen not to wait till "cut off date/August 1st" and already subscribed - that will ease up transition on a large scale.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Working on railroads (BNI),(CSX),(UNP)

Was going through the charts, feeling lazy ...again, there was something that caught my attention - I think railroads (BNI),(CSX),(UNP) are ready to go higher, I might be buying in tomorrow.

Crazy market, what else is new...(AAPL), (AMX), (TXN)...list goes on - what a fiasco ( was it unexpected?...yeah..right) with earning releases.
Somehow got stuck with 1/5 of (XLF) Aug22 calls, it is "free money" now, but still - unforgivable oversight of not selling first thing in the morning. (QQQQ) small calls positions will take a hit tomorrow...bought (AAPL) @149.4 AH and (AXP) @36.80 - will dump tomorrow in pre-market.
Long calls ( TIE), (DNDN), (SIGM), (AMLN), (CIEN), (CPSL), (TSO),(UNG),(ZOLT) - will get slammed tomorrow... what else is new - that is a killer market, you either quick or you dead.
On (APPL) - that thing got no bottom, will have to sell no matter what - another impulse trade

Beefing up (DNDN) long calls

There is nothing really unusual with (DNDN) either chart or behavior, just a gut feel - added to (DNDN) Aug/Sep long 7.5 strike calls. Otherwise, trying to stay with financials/regional banks "lil trend" - don't see anything with great potential - have my cash ready. Added few (AMLN) calls going into ER tonight - come on (PFE) wake up already - waste money on something - you'll go out of busyness anyways!

Friday, July 18, 2008

Yet another "Victory" for Fast gone Money

[ following is not a legal transcript, some mistakes might have been made, Trading to Win cannot guarantee accuracy - just like CNBC Clowns ]



About a week ago Mr. ADAMI ( I always misspell his name, so just last name here ) told YOU the story:
"I am coming out of the can with that guy and that guy says: Gilead, Gilead! I did not realize that he was simply very excited about life changing event of been in the can with me and decided that that guy recommended to buy GILD.
This is why I am bringing that exciting idea to you idiots who watch CNBC, it is like I did research and know what I am talking about. As always my advise is highly expensive to you, because CNBC pays me money off commercials pool and I don't care if I or (even less) YOU make or ( most likely ) LOSE money.
Enjoy free lunch and get what you paid for - which is crap"

Why The Street is so full of IDIOTS?

"18-Jul-08 Bernstein Downgrade:(TSO) from:Outperform To: Mkt Perform"

Are not those people ashamed to get their paycheck? Why, if so happens, they complain about "small severance packages"?

To downgrade beaten down, barely alive stock at the very bottom - they either have to be geniuses or complete degenerates - where were "they" when (TSO) was above $60???

And government BAILING out BROKERAGES using OUR money???? So they can continue to screw US up?
Now I will have to keep an eye on refiners - soon is the time to BUY ( MAY BE )

Would love to get access to Bernsteintrading activity in (TSO) today - are they loading up? If they do - than they are not IDIOTS, but CRIMINALS...what else is new...

Morning Market Update

So far markets resilience is truly amazing after huge financials rally last few days.
Just reacquired some QQQQ Aug calls.
If market will manage to close, not even "in the green", but at least "not much in the red" - that will add more bullish arguments to the case - close today IS very important, REALLY - we shall wait and see.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Bad Calls, Good Calls

2008 MARKET/SECTORS TURNAROUND CALLS

BAD CALLS
Yet another call on yet another financials rally Mid Day September 18th at 11:58AM
Calling "The Bottom" in Financials
Well, above was moved to "Bad Calls" due to being the most arrogant call I made to date, even in spite of the fact that it was "The Huge Profitable trade from the moment I opened it right into the next day's HUGE bounce" - of course, it was "silly" to call it "the bottom" - we all know the bottom just fell off few days later on.

I know that I attempted to trade Naturals Gas few time, so I searched and searched and searched - but except for "trading notes" kind of posts (which prone to change in a blink of an eye) could not find much. Still - BAD CALL(s) (You may search for UNG and decide if that might be qualified as "Market Call")

GOOD CALLS
Call on Financials and Homebuilders rally after second week of July

7/16/2008 07:49:00 AM
Financials (XLF) have had enough?

7/08/2008 12:18:00 AM
Many ways to scan a cat...

6/23/2008 10:21:00 PM
Summer Rally is coming to town?

Call on OIL and commodities Selloff after 4th of July
6/14/2008
(XLF) or "Toxic" Financials Part 2

6/23/2008
"Doorman Syndrome" #N

Call on market top in the beginning of June ( on May 30th )
Chart of about to be rotten (?) Apple ( AAPL)

Call on market bottom ( on March 13th )
Market is about to change

Picking up some (UNG) Aug/Sep calls

Picked up quite a few (UNG) Aug/Sep calls after report related selloff while (UNG) is trading under $51 ( who was surprised?) - (UNG) first targer $54

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

The answers we'd like to know...

It is believed to be unethical for the starving family with no past, present or future to sell ( pardon me - give for an adoption ) their children in order to save them from certain death - how is it ethical for filthy rich people to sell pictures of their children for money that is not going to add much to their wealth?
[pictures of starving children and filthy rich ones are not posted due to graphical nature of both ]


It is been known for over 70 years that you MUST borrow the stock ( locate it in someone else margin account ) in order to sell it short? Why I get this message from my brokers "This stock is not on the easy to borrow list and cannot be sold short" and Big Guys are not affected? And how appropriate is that SEC Big Smart Boss Mr. Cox wants to invent this rule now? And only for limited number of companies? And small traders can still go and screw themselves?


Why it is illegal for employees of investment related companies who have been forcefully designated as "Access my As.. person" in spite of having no real access ( Thanks God - they still have money left for not using investment advise from their company) to sell stocks short on personal accounts even if they request pre-clearance? And why for crying out loud do they have to "HOLD for AT LEAST 60 days"? Works nicely lately, huh? No married PUTS either? And why non for profit organization's GUIDELINES are been gladly accepted by all compliance departments?


Do you really want any of the past, present or future Presidents?
Someone forgot "Vote AGAINST" choice on the ballot?
Are not we glad that no money needed to run and elections cannot be doctored?
Send a JibJab Sendables® eCard Today!



Are you going to send Jimmy "you been served" postcard for all good advise he is getting paid for?
Wildcatters and other schizophrenic buy-buy-buy's





Do we still have USA Armed Forces in Europe? Do they still have bullets for 5 days? Is it still very expencive to keep them there?

Did you know that we still fighting the war in Afghanistan? What "Afghanistan"?

Do you really think that this real time letter will ALWAYS BE FREE?
Do you?


Do you feel lucky?

How is THIS for prediction?

Is this bounce going to last?

DavidDT

Financials (XLF) have had enough?


(Looks like Picasa Web Albums is down - image will appear as soon as Blogger will fix the problem )

Above is 10 years monthly chart of (XLF)
Very interesting broadening chart pattern
. It is very close to been classic "Right angled and ascending broadening formation" ... close...
What interest me as of now is not "What" it is, but "How it will behave right at the lower trendline.
My take would be ( and I was long (XLF) Aug/Sep Calls for a good week now, bleeding indeed so far) - bounce is coming, may be not today or tomorrow, but it is here

Monday, July 14, 2008

Do you feel like selling?

Do you want to line up all your long positions ( of course you have a lot of long positions - you've been told back in May by Fast Moneys, Mad Moneys, Kudlows of the world crooks that "easy money are been made on a short side" ) and hit "SELL ALL NOW and FU.. IT" button?
Of course you do, so do I, so everyone who is betting against the trend (down )

Is not it funny that 8PM Fast Money has been replaced by "Tighten your belts you wasteful financially illiterate proud for no good reason other than not knowing anything beside your neck of the woods Americans" show?
Sad, sad...so very sad - how we as a "once great nation" came to that point? Greedy corporations, incompetent government, not reading books, scared of bosses, wives and your own shadow?

I've been really busy lately and was not able to pay too much attention to the market, but at least I was able to get out of "idiotic FRE calls" trade at break even ( well, some small profit there) - not a good trade anyways.

(RKH) new low, (XLF) new low, (XHB) - held up? What is wrong with (XHB)??? Is it telling us something?

Crazy market...if it fall tomorrow morning I will add to (XLF) Aug/Sep calls position and will open some (RKH) ( no liquidity there, bummer) if no drop - I will just sit tight - I still go with my opinion that THIS WEEK is the bottom - and I am betting 50% of my trading account on it ( It is just we don't know how fast and vicious drops might get before the tide turns )

Try to have a good night sleep if you can ( I know I will not - I am long for few days now, no, not a good feeling, just like been 100% net short on May 30th )

P.S. I am just wondering - how long will it take to get "insured money" out of FDIC?

P.P.S. Almost forgot - bought plenty of (SPY) Sep126 calls today.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

As (GE) goes so goes the market?

As (GE) Earnings release rapidly approaching, only one night away I ask myself this question - why, oh why (except for ER expectations) stock of the company having at least 40% of business in financial segment, having exposure in every possible sector all around the world, why oh why stock of that company quietly moving up last 2 weeks when entire market is in dismay and despair? And the only logical answer would be ( in my books at least ) - it is signaling turnaround. Ii it?
Take a look at this chart ( 2 charts really - monthly and weekly ), pay attention to "predictive counts" signaling change of direction.
( Green "9" on monthly is a "buy" point, "red 9" is a "sell", on weekly it is the same, plus "13 count" signals major change of trend )
Could be that we are about to witness sudden and "unexpected" rally?

(this is a HUGE chart - you better have plenty of desktop space ready)


P.S. It is sad that I will not be able to pay enough attention to development of this story tomorrow morning - my mother had CATscan and results were not so great - the "C" word is taking over - will spend the day in the hospital with her.

(DXD) chart update

In the prior post there is a chart of (DXD) and my argument was that those wicks signify "topping out".
New day today and it looks even better, I guess (GE) CC and Deutsche Bank's Google Upgrade might just provide some catalyst for a rally.

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

HOAX #2 FED steps into Freddie's Fannie

Due to enormous success of HOAX's #1 "Strategic Petroleum Reserve HOAX"
with following (USO) retreat of over 6% in 3 days I decided to continue this ridiculous series.

So here goes HOAX #2.
FED decided to guarantee debt of (FRE)/(FNM), boost much needed liquidity ( of course taxpayers did not complain) and restore illusive stability of credit markets.

FED felt sorry indeed that bone thrown to the public to be wasted on LCD TVs and some gas ( how about having someone who rules the country who is in charge for pork? I don't eat pork, so I would not care ) in the form of $160 billions caused by total inability of Mr. El Presidento ($ is not even as good as peso anymore) to pronounce any other phrases, but "Tax rebate, tax rebate.." went totally and orderly wasted for no good reason ( except for generating more cash for oil companies indeed - that is where most of $160 billions ended up anyways, right? )... I better stop before some tight a... as.. officials ah.. I better stop now.

Anyhow, on a serious note ( another one ) - in spite of today's market selloff a lot of ETFs continue to look surprisingly ripe for turnaround, namely (IWM),( IYT) come to mind first, but even (QQQQ) now sits on "volume support" and last 6 days still look like extremely volatile consolidation to me.. (XLF) still looks interesting for the long trade ( HEY - I am trying to pick a bottom here, you don't see me doing that every day, except on the beach during spring break...but you don't see me there, right?)
As a matter of fact, after been stopped out of 1/2 of long (XLF) calls with simbolic profit - I replaced disposed position with ( you WILL call me crazy, I knew that) (FRE) August calls (damn, so overpriced due to volatility )

My STOPS ARE right under Monday's lows
That is the price to pay for attempt to pick a bottom....

You might have a question - why I am risking so much? Is not it better to wait and not to make "first 10%"? Like "smart CNBC gurus" teach? ( I wonder - when they TRADE if they have so much time to TEACH?)

My answer - in this market "first 10%" might be the "last 10%" and it will be -20% for latecomers.

AND... just you look at this chart, (DXD) - double inverse of (DIA) for clearer reading, 2 days interval ( I always use different timeframes when look at the charts, normally I have 1,2,3 days, weekly AND monthly charts open at once for the same stock )

Look at those wicks - can yu spell "reversal"?



P.S. I will change my disclaimer at the bottom of the page to CNBC's disclaimer:
"When I recommend particular specific this one stock I don't recommend it, nor endorse buying it, I am just here to entertain myself, occasionally make a lying fool out of myself, make money I cannot make on stock market and take credits when occasionally things go right"

How about that???
DavidDT

Did we see that coming?

Here is a link to discussion that took place on TradeKing Blogs
Below is extract for your convenience:
==============================================
Posted July 08, 2008 (09:41PM)

Not convinced that market had even a short term turning point today, my guess after running multiple methods of signals search and not finding long awaited confirmation of reversal ( short or long term ) I'd day:

XLF, SPY, XHB, RKH will have to undergo some kind of consolidation ( likely after additional pop tomorrow morning due to "overnight surprised shorts covering" )

QQQQ, SMH still don't look good long ( they are not short now, but not long as well )

And I think it is because everyone is trying to figure out if OIL is done - if it is - money will flow into qqqq and xlf, but if oil resumes uptrend after tom. mor. extra drop - then only XLF will get inflows.

I am kind of thinking alowd now, but anyhow IF long side has to be taken it'll be

1. PPH

2. XLF ( after at least some consolidation) and may be even XHB, I think those are starting to put in "the" bottom. Everything else will be dependent on KOL, USO, OIH action - why I am saying it? because I ( with my limited ways of doing so ) don't see any NEW money coming into the market now, so whatever happen wil be rotation.

downtrend has not been broken...yet .. if I would have to open any new positions tomorrow, log or short - I just would not...way too much risk ( since I am heavily long calls XLF, XHB, PPH I hope for more upside, but truly I am really confused by what I see. Hope it'll be clear withing this or next week at the longest.

Except for 1 thing - "stampede selling" is over, most of beaten down sectors are back into acceleration channel, it is still descending, but slope might start decreasing.

Damn, I am like economist, confused myself with "on one hand, but on another hand" - I guess it is "wait and see" time next few days.
===============================================

(DIA), (MOO), (XLF), (RKH)

(DIA), (MOO) are poised to move higher after short consolidation putting in what seems to be a "pipe bottom" ( no, not the one you are thinking about )
(XLF), (RKH) signaling major change of trend to the upside ( if confirm withing next few days )

OIL Good News Bears

Hmm...
Iran "taking over the World" does not push oil higher for any meaningful amount and move fails.
Bullish Crude/Gasoline Inventory report does not push oil higher for any meaningful amount and move fails.
Does it make you want to go long oil or (USO)? If it does - good luck and ... you are on your own...

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Many ways to scan a cat...

When different traders come to the the same conclusion using different methods - it might well deserve some attention.
My friend Brandt from TRADE GUILD just posted The Case For a Bounce with multiple charts based on his very own 3c indicator. Silly me - looking at the charts while vacationing - I'd like to reinforce his point of view using "my indicators".
I think SPY, DIA, XLF are about to bounce and since IWM and QQQQ only show "bounce signals" on a daily chart - I believe that "bounce" will be attributed mostly to financials.
Just to prove the point I'm posting charts of inverse ETFs as well ( as Brandt did ) and as you probably figured out already, since those are inverse - and red bars are sell signals - for "regular ETFs" that implies BUY-BUY-BUY





Monday, July 07, 2008

Bye-bye Fast Money A.K.A. Market Bottom?

Is not it amazing how repeatable history is?
Back in the midst of 2000-2002 bear market Larry and Jimmy suddenly disappeared from TV into the thin air, now CNBC takes 8PM Fast Money show off air all in a sudden?

Go away in peace - you will NOT be missed and take the Bear with you ( also, PLEASE, take off the air extremely bullish as of June 5th Peter Costa trader - his "expert" opinion just a waste of bandwidths, Dennis Kneale who is right twice a day just like a broken watches and a lot of other REALLY-REALLY annoying and not-so-helpful so called experts )

Or, may be, just may be, leave them ON and glue a Post-It with "FADE" written on it to their foreheads.

Thursday, July 03, 2008

Strategic Petroleum Reserve HOAX

Just woke up in the airplane seat [ vacation!!!! ] in cold sweat - I had a dream that I am LONG OIL and it is Monday and Great American Government and FED decided to be consistent with the full loss of control and do one more dumb thing - RELEASE some symbolic number of not really needed to anyone [ there is no shortage, don't be an idiot, yes, I am talking to YOU ] barrels of OIL. OMG - I just lost ALL MY MONEY!!!!

Then I woke up - thanks God it is still crazy for other people Thursday July 3rd 2008 and I have no position in oil or any of oil related "garbaaaage" [with French accent]

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Faces to remember

Now that

"Doorman Syndrome" #N


materialized just 1 short week after appearing on this not so fine financial blog, I thought that before I go on vacation I will offer you few photographs of "people to remember and watch out during THE NEXT BIG THING".
PEOPLE WHO SAY
"THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT"

Ken Heebner CGM Focus fund




Jim Cramer




Larry Kudlow




Fast Team for your Fast Gone Money
GUY ADAMI




PETE NAJARIAN A.K.A. "Coal IS A REAL STORY"




KAREN FINERMAN A.K.A. "C is a VALUE Girl"





JEFF MACKE - well, you DO have to listen to him and realistic folks from
minyanville.com
And I would like to express my deepest condolences to Jeff - his father passed away last week.

I can go on and post thousands of pictures of people who are
getting paid NOT based on how much money they made for YOU
but.. you get the point - stop watching/listening/hoping


THINK

LEARN

READ





[pictures from CNBC, Wikipedia, Forbes]

Oh my... or prelude to a market bottom...

Below is an extract from IM conversation which took place yesterday night with my trading buddy
Quoted:
=========================================
"DavidDT (7/1/2008 10:17:27 PM): the more I think about today, the more I browse financial sites, the more uncomfortable I became with the whole notion of "establishing the bottom" today. too many cheering, downtrending channel continues, SPY still closed outside of acc channel ( by a notch, but still) - I think "someone" is going to get whacked tomorrow
DavidDT (7/1/2008 11:16:28 PM): Also, as I look not at the volume, but dollar weighted volume - today's volume is 60-70% of prior reversals volume
[- not good enough for reversal]
============================================

And guess what? I totally ignored my own analysis and stayed long QQQQ calls and added a lot of XLF calls. NO. IT. DOES. NOT. FEEL. GOOD. AT. ALL.

That been said...I think tomorrow $VIX will spike on open ( Jobs report, Triches ECB action - I don't care...) Selloff will follow ... and that will signify short term bottom.
Plus, looking at after hours QQQQ action attributed to NVDA fiasco ( surprise, surprise - is it?), last price is somewhere at $44.50 and that price fits perfectly into symmetrical triangle from New Year up until now, plus QQQQ is sitting on volume support...

In short... if QQQQ will hold $44+ tomorrow, we'll see that "second week of July rally" I was expecting.
Not to overlook that today's action in oil with vicious short covering in the last 10 minutes due to 6% margin requirement been raised looks really "toppy" to me...
( reminder: Morgan Stanley said: " Oil will be $150 by July 4th" - read: "get the hell out before 4th of July")

IF, which I think, is HIGHLY unlikely, QQQQ will break $44 area on downside...oh well...let's think positive...I am not even looking at market tomorrow, low volume, high volatility, I had enough of that for this week - will get "the news" on Monday.

Happy 4th of July ( kind of lost some significance due to " a lot of taxation and no representation" recently )

Don't keep your eyes in the line of firing of fireworks - well, if you are grown up and dumb enough to do that - then...good luck.

P.S. I am taking long overdue vacation, regular posts will resume in few weeks.

Is that what it is?

Could not be a good idea to waste bandwidth of investment site by posting Music Videos, but I think thas is what a lot of swing/position and even day traders were thinking yesterday during wild swings.

Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Metals and laggards

Was not going to do yet another post tonight ( that is the 3rd one - I definitely overworked and underpaid :), but while glancing over the charts spotted something that might prove to be an interesting long ideas - some laggards among burning hot metallurgic sector.

Alcoa (AA)
- underperformed ( not knowing "funny-mental" things about company, my best guess would be due to HUGE electricity costs needed for aluminum production ).
Today's low bounced off long term priceline - could that be a beginning of leg up?



China Precision Steel, Inc. (CPSL)
Same story here - off the long term priceline



Titanium Metals Corp. (TIE)
(Holding long calls at the time of writing )
Down with BOEING ( and the rest af "Aero") - could that be that no more bad news left?



Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD)
Do you see what I see? Ugly Cup&Handle? ( I am not a big fan of C&H, but at least stop is clearly defined on this chart - just like on first 3 charts - that is the way I like it)