Did we see that coming?

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Posted July 08, 2008 (09:41PM)

Not convinced that market had even a short term turning point today, my guess after running multiple methods of signals search and not finding long awaited confirmation of reversal ( short or long term ) I'd day:

XLF, SPY, XHB, RKH will have to undergo some kind of consolidation ( likely after additional pop tomorrow morning due to "overnight surprised shorts covering" )

QQQQ, SMH still don't look good long ( they are not short now, but not long as well )

And I think it is because everyone is trying to figure out if OIL is done - if it is - money will flow into qqqq and xlf, but if oil resumes uptrend after tom. mor. extra drop - then only XLF will get inflows.

I am kind of thinking alowd now, but anyhow IF long side has to be taken it'll be

1. PPH

2. XLF ( after at least some consolidation) and may be even XHB, I think those are starting to put in "the" bottom. Everything else will be dependent on KOL, USO, OIH action - why I am saying it? because I ( with my limited ways of doing so ) don't see any NEW money coming into the market now, so whatever happen wil be rotation.

downtrend has not been broken...yet .. if I would have to open any new positions tomorrow, log or short - I just would not...way too much risk ( since I am heavily long calls XLF, XHB, PPH I hope for more upside, but truly I am really confused by what I see. Hope it'll be clear withing this or next week at the longest.

Except for 1 thing - "stampede selling" is over, most of beaten down sectors are back into acceleration channel, it is still descending, but slope might start decreasing.

Damn, I am like economist, confused myself with "on one hand, but on another hand" - I guess it is "wait and see" time next few days.
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