Thursday, July 31, 2008

Is Market "Bottom" in?

Endless discussions on all business channels, in subways, coffee shops ( what's left of those anyways).
Do we care?
I do, and it matters even for short term trading - I like to trade WITH the market.
So what do I think?
Since that early morning of July 16th when I was long up to my neck in anything "financials/homebuilders related" expecting that "second week of July rally"

Financials (XLF) have had enough?

I tend to think that UNLESS (XLF) will break that lower "line in the sand" - worst for financials is over. That is why I take more long positions, than short since that day and add on pullbacks, no matter how scary it looks at a time. Will I continue to do the same? I don't know - I am just a dimb trader who does not know what he will do tomorrow and does not remember what he was doing yesterday.

Is this "THE bottom"?
Why would we care so much? It "MIGHT BE", BUT - it does not mean that "BEAR MARKET IS OVER".
It is always the same - fall, rally, fall, rally, then - endless boring consolidation to wash off bad taste and erase memories of crimes in order to start stealing shareholders money again in a "newly announced Bull Market"
( NO - it is NOT a BULL market, we've been in a bear market for over 20 years now, most importantly - in the bear market for Honest Decent Hard working Americans who are not "prospering", not for a long time, but "trying to make ends meet" or just plain "SURVIVE")

Below is the chart of (XLF) as of this morning - 2 weeks later and almost 50% higher.
As for financials for long trade - I am out, upside is not as attractive as before ( $23-24 is not something I am willing to bet my money on)