Sunday, August 30, 2009

The answer I’d like to know (Japan/USA)

That story back in June 2009 (I cannot find any further information as what has been determined)

Two Japanese caught smuggling US bonds worth $134.5 billion

was it due to someone very smart trying to get rid of US bonds at the best possible price because the outcome of elections was predictable?  And possible unfavorable development for US debt owned by Japan is yet to come?  And if new Japan’s ruling party is determined to treat China not as traditional enemy, but friend – will Chinese debt owners to follow Japan’s suit?

If any of these questions will ever be answered – for me, the best answer would be rally in the USD.

No matter how much FED would love to inflate their way out of international obligations – the worse outcome would be to allow [what some dimwits in USA think] “3rd world countries” to dump US Treasuries with the speed comparable only to rush of crowd when the fire breaks in movie theater.

Bonus Chart - (IYR)

(IYR) – iShares DJR real estate index

Timeframe (150 minutes) I have not used for ages was brought to my attention yesterday by “Bicep” [that is Disqus ID]

here is D-Wave based on that interval – damn accurate!


BTW – Second Chart in the prior post was corrected – dates were incorrect (Many thanks to “Iguanadon” [Disqus ID] for pointing that out]

What is next for SPX?

First – quick memory trip (as many ADD affected people I keep numerous “notes” all over the places –that is easy, what is difficult – to remember where I put my notes and look at them from time to time)

June 21st 2009 – about time when every bear in blogosphere was entertaining the idea of “head and shoulder” and CNBC helped to lure novice traders even deeper into abyss of biased losses.

Daviddt Qqqq Spx Ung 062109


July 6th

S&P500 roadblocks

Now…August 30th 2009

I am not quite in Mole's / Fujisan’s and Prechter's camp of "this is as high as it gets" (may be just because I have no clue what is that “P3” they keep talking about is), but, again - correction is around the corner. As for best short plays beside SPY puts - I think anything that depends on weaker dollar would be the best short - tech, commodities, multinational, mining equipment - I expect dollar to go up strongly. (as a "nonsense" long commodity play on stronger dollar - I think natural gas might just go up)

Without further due I’d like to introduce my newest extremely expensive state of the art charting package (which beats Bloomberg, CQG, ThinkOrSwim, NinjaTrader etc hands down)  and to demonstrate 2 distinct possibilities I am entertaining at the moment (things change…”yo now”).

(In any case I intend either CLOSE ALL MY PUTS around 980 and reload on next move up…or at least keep those on a very short leash)





Saturday, August 29, 2009

Weekend read to widen your horizons

from the writer who brought the world "Archipelag Gulag"
Giving the 1978 Commencement Address at Harvard University, Alexander Solzhenitsyn delivered a sharp and stunning rebuke to the modern West, repudiating its liberalism, materialism, and supremacism.
“There is this belief,” Solzhenitsyn said, “that all those other worlds are only being temporarily prevented by wicked governments or by heavy crises or by their own barbarity or incomprehension from taking the way of Western pluralistic democracy and from adopting the Western way of life. Countries are judged on the merit of their progress in this direction. However, it is a conception which developed out of Western incomprehension of the essence of other worlds, out of the mistake of measuring them all with a Western yardstick. The real picture of our planet’s development is quite different.”
He went on to describe the mentality which led the Western elites to adopt multiculturalism and pluralism, while they simultaneously lacked the courage to defend their Western culture or to challenge Communist governments which did not have the support of the peoples they governed. Solzhenitsyn described this lack of courage as “the most striking feature which an outside observer notices in the West in our days”.
“The Western world has lost its civil courage, both as a whole and separately, in each country, each government, each political party and of course in the United Nations. Such a decline in courage is particularly noticeable among the ruling groups and the intellectual elite, causing an impression of loss of courage by the entire society. Of course there are many courageous individuals but they have no determining influence on public life. Political and intellectual bureaucrats show depression, passivity and perplexity in their actions and in their statements and even more so in theoretical reflections to explain how realistic, reasonable as well as intellectually and even morally warranted it is to base state policies on weakness and cowardice. And decline in courage is ironically emphasized by occasional explosions of anger and inflexibility on the part of the same bureaucrats when dealing with weak governments and weak countries, not supported by anyone, or with currents which cannot offer any resistance. But they get tongue-tied and paralyzed when they deal with powerful governments and threatening forces, with aggressors and international terrorists. Should one point out that from ancient times decline in courage has been considered the beginning of the end?”
Solzhenitsyn went on to condemn the materialism of Western culture, fostered by the welfare state. He argued that the extreme safety and prosperity of the Western world caused Western people to be unwilling and reluctant to defend the most essential and important values that their culture and tradition were based upon, for fear of relinquishing the “physical splendour” they enjoy “to an extent their fathers and grandfathers could not even dream about”.
“Even biology knows that habitual extreme safety and well-being are not advantageous for a living organism. Today, well-being in the life of Western society has begun to reveal its pernicious mask.”
full article here



Friday, August 28, 2009

dontblong !

we yet have to post a higher daily close on NDX sometimes by the middle of the next week
I could not force myself to look at the charts today, but I will do a detailed post on all counts of DeMark indicators weekly and daily, but in few words it might be summed up right now - next week (or at most the week after that) will mark the end of this leg up and, may be, the end of the "make believe" rally.
It looks like different methods (coming from the people whose knowledge I respect in their areas of technical analysis) are all pointing to the same point of time.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Ready, set, go…DXY

Wonderful final shake off today in USD, watching it like a hawk, if tomorrow’s close will be above critically important 77.85 level – that would be as perfect from risk/reward LONG trade as it gets

(Disclosure: Long /DX from 77.72, trading around – selling some on rips, buying back on dips)



Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

“Blue line” haunting

Another Doji on SPX, TDCombo Sell Daily completed (there is an ongoing TDSetup Sell, so reaction might be postponed till Thursday)

Same trendline, time and again – how much longer I will have to see it?  It started too long ago – on March 16th – enough is enough!




condotto perfetto


Monday, August 24, 2009

SPX Drifting away from the channel

TDSetup Sell Weekly likely to be completed on the week of September 15th


Sunday, August 23, 2009

Public announcement

I have created separate web page dedicated to current D-Wave counts on Monthly, Weekly, Daily

Comments welcome

Friday, August 21, 2009

Upside down week

Quick post and I will forget that market exists till Sunday night.

My game plan as of Aug 16th was:

quote ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is my “speculation” on what will happen this week:

S&P500 will NOT set new high till expiration Friday

On Monday it might attempt to run up (but not above 1012.44) – if no such attempt will be made all following time/price targets will be shifted 1/2 days back.

By Wednesday it will be slightly below 993 where it will start yet another leg up not exceeding 1005 (this is purely “fantasy” target – I cannot calculate the number until  W3 low is set.

The bottom line – if it will work this way S&P500 cash index will end this week slightly above 970.

end of quote ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I was “almost right” on 970 – SPX did hit sub 970

Was right on “all following time/price targets will be shifted 1-2 days back.” – and was dead wrong on “no new highs”

All wave counts got reset, SPX is still in W3 UP, I think 970 area will be revisited next week.

My target for W3 still remains 1120 (with possibility of strong correction from current levels)

I entered weekend 100% NET SHORT on all accounts, substantial part of “active trading account” is in /NQ short @1626.75 (not the best price, but I am fine with that)


Please, congratulate Evil Speculator Molecool with winning draft to ring NASDAQ BELL on Tuesday August 25th – he will wear a Grim Reaper outfit :)

Thursday, August 20, 2009

It’s a Dollar, Stupid! (#2)


Few extra thought on “what-if-when”

1005.50 on daily bar close is TSDT risk level
SPX closed above it twice and sold off immediately.
So, what happened yesterday - SPX bounced off TDST Resistance 979.50 (acting as support for now), it will attempt to hit 1005.50 again and if it will fail this time on the way down it will break 979.50

The first step toward this path would be SPX closing below 1004.09 tomorrow (Aug 20th) in order to keep Buy Setup intact

Interestingly enough if that happens next TDST (of prior setup) support is 942 and it is 50% retrace for W4 and since W4 down has to have minimum of 13 bars 50 SPX points do not look impossible.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

W4 A.K.A. “Pain in the butt”

Last few days in spite of having a plan/roadmap (see post as of Aug 16th - working pretty well so far) was a real pain to trade – but in my books it is a good news, it adds confidence that we really are in W4 of UP wave and, if so, will not exceed recent highs for at least another 2 weeks and that presents low risk short entries closer to recent highs with clearly defined stops. I see S&P500 range bound (1013.14 – 960 are on closes)



Don’t ask the barber if you need a haircut

Why they always crawl from under the rocks and open their empty minds’ driven mouth at the most inappropriate time?

January 19, 2008

“Abby Joseph Cohen, the superbull at Goldman Sachs, maintained that the Dow would roar back to finish 2008 at a level 22 percent higher — 14,750 is the number — as the economy perks up later in the year.


March 17, 2008

She screwed up big – down the hole she goes

Goldman Sachs Says Abby Cohen to Stop Making S&P 500 Forecasts


August 6th 2009

Cohen: “We do think the new bull market has begun” [And you figured it all out just 6 months after intermediate bottom? DavidDT]

Abby – I am giving you one thumb up turned upside down and you can take it as a directional hint on your new bull market – I hope I did not mix the pictures (I am almost as “mature” as you are – just better looking) and I hope I will never ever have to hear your well paid ridicule again – have you ever looked at South America as a place of permanent residence?  Do you people have no shame?   Of course you don’t…



S&P500 ===> 584

Monday, August 17, 2009

Monday Chart Update

[refer to chart as of August 16 post “Mixed Bag – getting heavy”]

I expect bounce to 990-995



Sunday, August 16, 2009

Mixed Bag – getting heavy

Rydex data indicates that the amount of assets in the bullish and leveraged funds is 2.53 times that in the bearish and leveraged funds, and this represents the highest value since November, 2004. 

Robert Prechter latest interview [it will open Windows Media Player, entire clip is very interesting, but Bob part" starts at 14:45 mark]

Investors Sentiment – of sources that traditionally proved to be on the wrong side of the trade ( combined 1. Investor Intelligence; 2. Market Vane; 3. American Association of Individual Investors; and 4. the put call ratio) is extremely bullish.

Fibonacci Arcs hinting exhaustion of the rally (technically, but time fractions are to close in durations for .38 – toss the coin now)


This is my “speculation” on what will happen this week:

S&P500 will NOT set new high till expiration Friday

On Monday it might attempt to run up (but not above 1012.44) – if no such attempt will be made all following time/price targets will be shifted 1/2 days back.

By Wednesday it will be slightly below 993 where it will start yet another leg up not exceeding 1005 (this is purely “fantasy” target – I cannot calculate the number until  W3 low is set.


The bottom line – if it will work this way S&P500 cash index will end this week slightly above 970.

If I am right – you can kiss me, if I am wrong – you can kiss Prechter’s butts - for the difference in amount of money he and I make – you can live with that…

Saturday, August 15, 2009

Eyes see what mind wants to see

This is one great buy – is not it?

Off the rounding bottom up we go, too bad we did not catch it on time, trading is so easy in hindsight



But wait – I made a mistake – how that damn chart flipped???



 Follow intraday comments on Twitter ID: DavidDT_TTW

Friday, August 14, 2009

Silver smells fishy?

Very heavy put buying today for Sep17, 10 times open interest – it either REAL DUMB money, because it has potential to go to $17 – or “someone” knows” something…

Oh well – it can just be a hedge to existing long SLV position – I would not blame them :)



Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Thin Ice or Theta Burn?

First I need to make a correction to my SPY/SPX W3 minimum requirements conditions (I miscalculated them in my last video. BTW – in order to understand what I am talking about in this post – you need to watch that video)

SPY needs to close above 101.20

SPX needs to close above 1010.48

And today S&P500 was awfully close to this chore, but as they say “Almost is not good enough”

That selloff into the close was work of perfection – a lot of institutions use DeMark works and, of course this is just a speculation, knowing that after such a vicious no fundamental reason rally (just a lot of injected liquidity and monetization of debt by FED) everyone is watching impatiently for the sign “exit here” – “they” are trying to postpone “the lighting” for as long as they can?

I am NOT implying that as soon as W3 pops on the chart – selloff will start, what I am saying – too many variables are pointing to correction from current levels and it is a fine line between correction and panic selling should price decline scare MoMo crowd and dimwitted portfolio manages (those who were running across trading floors back in October 2007 shouting “buy freshly downgraded AAAs” – we’ll make a killing on that in few months” – sure thing killing that was, most of those idiots are out on the street now, thou carrying their Golden Packages with them) who piled into worthless shares in eternal pursuit of over the benchmark performance results.

Waves, Setups, Fibonacci – tough crowd right here right now.

Not to overlook that Ken Heebner (pay attention to the date when you click on that link) was on CNBC today (and Bob Doll, yeah, he too) advising to buy buy buy – just like he did back on July 2nd 2008 – he loved oil and all shit… eh .. commodities at those levels…well – market is a cruel mistress – collapse started 9 calendar days later.

Back to market talk…

Today’s close makes me think – if they try to keep SPY from printing W3 impulsive UP on daily and they do not sell it to oblivion as of yet – what if, as we get closer to options exp Friday (next week), all everyone is going to get is lingering action at about these levels with maximum theta burn?

Time will tell…

No charts today – get your own charts :)

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Monday, August 10, 2009

S&P500 DeMark D-Wave, TDSequential video


S&P500 VIDEO posted
(first video in playlist)

Sunday, August 09, 2009

Market Musings

Market taught me that it will do what we expect it to do only not when we expect it to (I, myself, been a contrarian all my life learned to reinforce contrarian arguments with solid technical indications)

what I think will happen - market will go sideways for the next 4-5 weeks
next 2 weeks - down, after that will drift higher for few weeks, may be even setting slightly higher highs - 1060sh on SPX , therefore completing TDCombo sell on weekly SPX (NDX already posted Combo sell this week - technology companies suffer most from rising dollar).
Sometime in mid September market will start decline and most likely will retrace most of advance off March lows - even idea of "new bull market" does not interfere with retrace of most of W1 of wave up (we are at W4 of down and, probably, in W1 UP, but based on RSI readings I will continue to go with DOWN wave on weekly - unfortunately in DeMArk world it might go as high as the top of W2 corrective wave (just should NOT close above it) and that is an area of 1440 - quite amazing - we might go that high and still be in DOWN wave
I did video on spx, comp, iyr, xlf yesterday and if I will not fall asleep – I might do detailed video on QQQQ

S&P500 D-Wave roadmap

SPX 892009

Saturday, August 08, 2009


new video posted (first video in playlist)
covered UUP, IYR, QQQQ, XLF, SPY (daily/hourly)

Thursday, August 06, 2009

Beyond belief


If this is what it looks like – that is the very last efforts to keep truth under the lid

The Fed's UST-POMO Pyramid Scheme Exposed

BLATANT Monetization Uncovered

Now I begin to understand total disconnect in the latest gold, dollar, bonds, equities market action – have I seen it all now?

Outrageous Video Footage!

In the best traditions of democratic society I’d like to present this hidden gem demonstrating the way the higher Royal Powers discuss well being of working people behind the closed doors – it is very clear why “they” attempt to maintain such secrecy when asked “How did you spend that money?”.

The most informative segment starts at 4 minute mark.  Impossible?  But True.



Wednesday, August 05, 2009

How to trade market like a pro


Compliments of j-dub and ZeroHedge

GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
125K+ jobs lost from GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
unemployment @ 9% = BETTER THAN EXPECTED
unemployment @ 10% = DOW SOARS
unemployment @ 11% = GREEN SHOOT RALLY
unemployment @ 12% = ALREADY FACTORED IN
unemployment = 35% = DOW DROPS 100 POINTS
housing price =1% = RECESSION ENDING
housing collapses = GREEN SHOOT
Housing falls 20% = STABILIZATION
Government spends 1 trillion of OUR dollars = STIMULUS
North Korea fires nuke = RALLY
Israel bombs Iran = 30 MINUTE END OF DAY RALLY
world explodes = ASIA RALLIES
PMI crashes = HUGE RALLY
No jobs are created = RECESSION ALMOST OVER
U.S. debt overwhelming = TOO BUSY RALLYING TO CARE
Consumer stops spending = RETAIL RALLY
Banks are insolvent = SIGNS OF STABILIZATION
American auto industry BK = GOOD THING
Banks pass scam stress tests = HUUUUUUUUGE RALLY
Banks "only need 75 billion = OUT OF THE WOODS
Banks pass a real stress test = NEVER WOULD HAPPEN
Banks pay back tarp = LATE DAY SURGE
Banks can't pay back TARP = EARLY MORNING SURGE
12% mortgage delinquency = GOOD FOR STOCKS
Hundreds of thousands of mortgages underwater = HOUSING BOTTOMED
Dollar rises = RALLY
Dollar crashes = RALLY
Inflation = BULL MARKET
Gold rises = STOCKS RALLY
Banks' fake earnings = SIGNS OF STABILIZATION
CRE stabilizing= 1000 POINT RALLY
And the one we should all interpret correctly:


I, DavidDT, would like to know the answer, the very same answer every sane person would like to know:

“Is there any limit to human stupidity and is there any way that smaller, still sane, part of population will not be forced to pay the bill for all the scam of the Earth?”

I really need to know answer ASAP because I was just served another bill to pay, two bills actually – for people who had “clunkers” because they could not afford anything better (for a good reason obviously), but were lured into new auto loan they are NOT going to repay even if they wonted to – there are no jobs and, the second bill is for used car for my kid which just jumped up in price with insurance as well.

I am REALLY running out of patience…and I’ve seen a lot (I thought “I’ve seen it all” – I came here from the country with oppressive regime…oh boy…)

Monday, August 03, 2009

"I really can't tell you why all the bullish arguments are wrong"

There is an advantage of being old and not expecting things to happen right when we think they should happen.
(I am talking about myself, ya no' - I am an old fart)

So, I believed that local top had to be in place on July 23rd based on TDSetup Sell daily. the thing is - TDSetup Sell means "sell OR consolidation" - and consolidation that was for 4 days following July 23rd.
Now - pussy bears (sorry - I feel ashamed that I am currently bearish) - next TDSetup sell about to complete on Wednesday and it might be perfected as soon as tomorrow with slightly higher open.
Looking at /es,spx,spy and /nq...etc) I see the same picture with slight variations, somewhere is it a straight TDSetup sell, in others TDCountdown sell, and in some - soon to be completed TDCombo sell.
Taking a memory trip, in a way it is very similar to what I observed back in the beginning of March 09.

Not to overlook that on weekly charts major indexes are right at the tops of long term channels.

So, back on March 5th I wrote:  "I really can't tell you why all the bearish arguments are wrong..."

Today I am saying: "I really can't tell you why all the bullish arguments are wrong." - Hmm...I think there is an allusion here, but I am too old and dumb to get it...