SPX hourly update

My speculation
on what might happen to SPX short term played out quite well

 

below it today’s chart – I will start going short on any hourly close above 1796.41, but bear in mind there is an ongoing TDSellSetup and possible completion might be around noon time

 

 

Kid you NOT or SP500 Evil Ways

He did not complain in any way about the bad reputation he enjoyed all over the world, assured me that he himself was the person the most interested in the destruction of superstition, and admitted to me that he had only been afraid for his own power one time, and that was the day when he had heard a preacher, more subtle than his colleagues, shout out from the pulpit:

"My dear brothers, never forget, when you hear the progress of enlightenment vaunted, that the devil's best trick is to persuade you that he doesn't exist!"

Baudelaire  "Le Joueur généreux," pub. February 7, 1864;

translation by Cat Nilan, 1999

For the "memory impaired" (such as myself) here is a pointer to my old, as of August 2009, post  What is next for SPX?  with one …err with two/too cool state of the art charts (and as mentioned in that post – second was MY preferred scenario).  Do spend 3 minutes – look and read that post.  (Just don't get too cocky looking at the dates – I did put a note at the bottom of the chart stating that "all times are ideal and WILL change)

Without further due I am presenting you with the chart of S&P500 which will cause great distress and a lot of critique around Blog-O-Sphere and, once again, will cause some bears to hate me because they are not beautiful (Shut the hell up, yes, you, yes – I did not ask if I am handsome, it is NOT the point)


If I am wrong – so be it, I am not a long term trader anyways, but if I am right – I hope never hear anyone mentioning Pee on The Three and similar "gurus" ever again ( we are here to use OUR analysis, our skills acquired based on personal learning and understanding of different methods of technical analysis – not for blind repetition.)

With that I'll leave you to have plenty of time to scratch your heads and discuss "what head doctor that Mad Russian needs now" and while you are doing that – read latest from our DeMark-ian compadre:

Wallfly


Here's an updated D-Wave chart showing the Daily overlaid on the 30 -- the only two that seem to be working together at the moment. The hourly has the same profile as the Daily at the moment which seems odd. I have a scenario for that which is kind of far fetched, but if it should start to play out Ill explain it.

Bearish until proven wrong

Have received quite a few emails lately calling me names such as "unbeliever", "SOB", "stubborn" etc...

Fine with me, I have my system and until my stops (not silly stops based on fixed amounts or %, but set based on current market volatility) will hold - I am staying short.  And may be the system I use is a bad system, but I'd rather have a bad system than no system at all and CNBC on.

I cannot be long looking at this chart, no way Jose!

Crude Oil completing TDCountdown Sell 13 this very moment (overnight session)
XLF rising wedge on weekly, under TDST Resistance
AAPL daily sell under TDST Res and weekly res
FISV daily sell today
JOYG daily sell 2days ago, right at TDST Res
RIMM, BIDU, AMZN, MSFT SELLSELL and SELL again
TNX reversal at 39.64
Why anyone would be bullish now???
Pardon me, but I only speak few languages and most of those are bad, so in my plain bad English:
I think our America is the numero uno once again - as a DUMBEST COUNTRY with DUMBEST SHEEPLE who want to be taken advantage of.
And it is not a political statement, just paraphrasing of Voltaire's "Common Sense is not so common"
P.S. /ES close tomorrow under 941.25 will confirm bearish price flip

Chart of the week - 10 year Treasury Notes

Firstly, few words "of wisdom" (how funny that is to hear from someone who has "Dumb Trader" engraved in his nick? Yup, that is what "DT" in DavidDT" stands for)

Why traders fail?  They have not formed THEIR OWN opinion, they follow short term market swings when putting on longer term trades, they read way too many "other guys/girls" trading blogs, in short - most of the "traders" have no conviction in their own trading ideas.  The point is - none is right all the time, form your opinion, stick with it or change it, control risk, but do it based on your own research with deep understanding WHY you do what you do, if you don't do that - the easiest way to handle trading would be to just give me your money (not for managing it - I am NOT financial advisor), because without YOU understanding WHAT and WHY and WHEN YOU are doing - you will end up broke, so if you just handle me your money at least someone you know might benefit from you not doing your home work.  No? OK, back to the charts...

Below are 2 charts of 10 year US Treasury Note Futures and, essentially the same of TNX (just in reverse)

They both tell us that this week might just mark possible meaningful move to the upside (and downside for yield)

 

Anatomy of a (Losing) Trade

Very good article today in

Anatomy of a Losing Trade

James Kostohryz JUN 05, 2009 1:05 PM

I spent most of weekend by the pool, sunburns all over, I am even crankier than usual so, after bias disclosure I will let charts with DeMark indicators speak for themselves.  You all know how to interpret and use signals, and most importantly you all most definitely know how to control risk.

Bias disclosure:

Long:

Dollar, $VIX, 10and 30 years bonds.

Short:

BAC Mortgage commercials (I am done with AIG "10 years of laughter" indeed), financial system, CEOs, British Pound, Euro, broad market and particularly technology, financials and all garbage floating on the surface due to dollar/commodities "this time it is different again" suckers play.

Don't forget to check back later tonight for new Discretionary Trader post.

Tom DeMark Indicators Explained

There are very few resources available for traders who are interested in utilizing DeMark indicators.
Original Tom DeMark's books
The New Science of Technical Analysis (Wiley Finance)
New Market Timing Techniques: Innovative Studies in Market Rhythm & Price Exhaustion
are not an "easy read" and newly published Jason Pearl's book in spite of being detailed - is, sometimes, slightly confusing in some respects.
DeMark Indicators (Bloomberg Market Essentials: Technical Analysis)
I've been using DeMark indicators for many years now and over the course of running blog I have received number of questions such as "what, how, when" in respect to these indicators.
I spent a lot of time answering individual questions and I've come to the point when it has gotten slightly boring, too time consuming and unproductive to say the least.  So I decided to start a series of posts and educational videos.