Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Updated Trade Signals as of April 30th 2008

New Signals:
DBA buy ( daily )

Shame on me - missed (EWZ) Head&Shoulder breakout - and I was keeping it on the watch list - too much excitement after FED 2:15 market action ( expected according to my yesterday's post) - what a move!

My next long trade candidate would be (ALTI), prior one (MNKD) moved up today.

And... 4 "Metals" plays I'll be watching
(ACH) - I know, it is difficult to go long aluminum with all that energy prices...
(GNA) - just like it ( lame reason)

(X) and (STLD)

And.. just to let my "acidic" personality out - tuned TV on and caught a moment on CNBC's "Fast Money" (No, I am NOT watching those...hmm...never mind... my kid all in a sudden interested in investing - she wants to get rich fast - oh my...) - anyhow - Finnerman said: "I missed the bottom in C (CitiGroup) - none can catch a bottom..."

Well, I did send her email when her loser (DVA) turned around and went up some after long loosing streak when she, "value girl" loved it ( and turned her back on it right when it was about to turn around) - CNBC never informed her of my email :_)

Now - speaking of "Bottom on CitiGroup" - next time she says something like that - forward her THIS CHART, PLEASE
(green bars are buy signals)

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

"Big Day" tomorrow

Bulls or Bears, Up or Down, Make or Loose, Commodities or Tech.... enough already.
I think Nasdaq Bulls will have to deal with disappointment, same goes for Commodities Bears ( Yes. I am inclined to get bullish on Commodities again - sorry Dennis Gartman )

Cramer, (YUM) and blind faith

"Lead, follow or get out of the way"
Something is amiss here - "follow YOUR path"

Not that I like to be a contrarian, but I just got an email from reader of this blog where she asks: " Cramer had an interview with YUM CEO - do you think it is still not too late to invest in this company?"

First off - I do not provide investment advise or buy/sell recommendations - I just have an opinion. As of the moment of this writing (YUM) price is about $41 and I think $37 is a possibility withing next 3 weeks. Just an opinion...

Thank you to those who congratulated me on catching a top in OIL and Commodities on April 18th ( temporary top, but very rewarding trade indeed) and for your generous donations.

Updated Trade Signals

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Just when you thought financial are out of the woods.

Here is something for Bears and it comes in pairs and companies might be in despair - am I rhyming?
But anyhow without further due let me introduce what might just became the latest "victims" of CDO, CDS, CSO, UFO ( I think UFO does not belong here - but as much stupid as all other greed and stupidity inspired "packages") and other "gArbAge" bonanza.

(PRU) and (HIG)
both have formed Head&Shoulder Tops (since March 08) which considered to be one of the best performing BEAR patterns even in the Bull Market ( which we are not in at that particular juncture of the pay back time), downside expectation is well over 20%.

Not much of fundamental guy, but knowing how much of insurance busyness based on deceit (try to get your money out of them and if you lucky and they paid, try to find another insurance after submitting just one claim ) I would think that LEVEL III cloud is still somewhere underneath and it'll pop up any time soon - for now, I bet they hope "subprime crisis" will be fixed and when it'll be time to PRICE "conveniently illiquid assets" "they" will be fine.... I guess CHARTS TELL US OTHERWISE.

Monday will be the time for me to get my hands on as many (PRU) and (HIG) puts as it is safe to hold.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Usual - SHORT OIL, but now -short QQQQ and DIA

Firstly, thanks to those who don't think that the best things in life are free and ringing "DONATE" button from time to time.
Also, thanks to freeloaders who support my site ... by reading it....

Afternoon Market Update

Yesterday's "Market Sectors Watch for April 24" worked out surprisingly well - except for that it was not MAY, but APRIL indeed:-) ( always better to have a plan, even a bad one, than no plan at all)
Few quick thoughts on Financial ETF (XLF)
It is nearing important $27-27.50 resistance area, most likely it will take a short breather and then, finally will say descending price channel Goodbye. I don't think that it is a good idea to go long or short at this point ( even for day trade) - action may get quite jittery along the way.

(DUG) long and (OIH) long puts trade works very well so far - protect your profits - I will. ( As a matter of fact I already took some profits off the table on both in the A.M.)
(As you know DUG is inverse USO short oil ETF and OIH - all great runs ends one day or at least pulling back...some...andsome....and sometimes ...more ...and more )

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Stock Market Sectors Watch For April 24' 08

DJ30 - looks like it will use MSFT Earning Release ( Tomorrow After Market Close ) as an excuse to move slightly up, as for "during the day" it'll most likely will "re-test" 12640 area.
DJ Trans is moving nicely within ascending price channel, I guess it'll drop some in the morning ( where I will close my transports related short positions - had it for 2 days now) and will leave transports alone for a while.
Gold/Silver will be down tomorrow, so I assume "Mighty Dollar" ( what left of it anyways ) - will be slightly up.
NASDAQ - same story as DJ30 - waiting for Mr. Softy
Hmm..S&P500 - after been whacked today - waiting, begging, Mr. Softy, please...boring

I can go on, but in short - I will be easing up on a lot of positions tomorrow ( except for "concept" Long DUG/Short OIH - Short Oil in plain English)

Ag Chemicals REALLY moved down today - here what I posted on Member Site Yesterday:

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Out of "Aggs"

Today closed what was left from Ag Chemicals Positions(long), looks like most are due for at least consolidation or may be even short setups. Plus, slew of ag IPOs flowing into the market - always a very reliable signal that "New Big Thing" is about to end. Also ( I am taking a very high risk here ) - completed building DUG long and OIH long puts positions."

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Short Oil and (OIH) as well

That is going to be a very short post...I think "pain level" on my (DUG) position I've been building over the last few days is quickly approaching "my maximum" pain level, but I honestly ( and may be foolishly) finished building entire planned position today. With the way market finally started to react to continuous oil advance ( now higher oil is bad for the market as oppose "market needs oil to go up in order to put in any resemblance of a rally ) I think it is a beginning of at least pullback - if I am wrong - stop is set at -10% ( which is unusually large stop for me - but this is a price of trying to catch a top).

Also, added (OIH) May and June 190 puts.

Who knows - may be today's airlines stocks collapse was a "sign" :-)

Friday, April 18, 2008

"Doorman Syndrome"

As of the moment of this writing my trading portfolio pretty much "bleeding" on most of positions - I am 80% net short, started the week at 20% net short, was adding as market rally progressed( About 50% of short position is DUG - already at a loss of about 5%).


That rally had to happen, mainly because of "Doorman Syndrome" and here is

the Story:

One fine day back in 2000, right in the neurotic euphoria of the "New Internet Economy/This time it is a different story", when I came back home from work, the doorman of the building where I lived at a time, stopped me and was excitedly describing to me for about 15 minutes "how much money he made on the stock market, about to retire, well - he WAS retired at that time, and how EASY it was to make money on the stock market"

At that time I was, like a lot of other thinking people PARTIALLY in the market, I just found it difficult to accept the magnitude of degenerate feelings surrounding "The New Big Thing", so, truly I did miss A LOT OF upside by been overly cautious.

After "Doorman" conversation took place - I immediately went back into the market, 100% of my money.

SHORT, I went SHORT, very Marry Short. Not so Marry in the beginning, I recall not been able to sleep at night, not "sleep well", but sleep at all, pain was unbearable at times, especially if I tell you that in spite of my latest bearish ideas I AM a perpetual BULL , and by going short back then and been wrong I thought that punishment is deserved for "not believing".

OPWV ( back then it was and before merger, I cannot even recall tickers) - I shorted it at $800 just to see it at $1000 few weeks later.

I could not take the pain, I thought that preceding downturn was just a corrective action and market resumes steady move upward.

For the next few weeks, I continued to listen to doorman ( very, really very nice guy and quite smart one - for been in the position with the minimum amount of responsibility ) and...

I shorted (OPWV) AGAIN ... this time at $1200.

Needless to say, I lost sleep again, most likely gave myself a word to stay away from the stock market forever and... next thing I knew - it all crashed, and kept crashing, and sliding, and falling, and falling apart and ... I covered my short positions ( too bad I did not have many LEAP PUTS), so I covered, for example (OPWV) at about $6

Will it be like that this time? I don't know...

What I do know - I always watch for "Doorman Syndrome"

When "everyone makes killing on real estate and it is easy!" - it is time to short.

When "everyone makes killing shorting subprime and it is easy!" - it is time for 5% a week oversold/over shorted rally.

When "everyone believes that the worst is over and it will be easy to be long!" - it is time to be SHORT...AGAIN

Like they say: "Market will do what we expect it to do, only not WHEN we expect it too"

This time it is NO different, this time it is commodities and related ... TIME TO FALL

I know now that it pays off to stand the pain - pay off might be great ( as long as no leverage is involved )


P.S. I heard there is a great new International Coal Energy Oil Steel Shit ( Pardon me - fertilizer ) Company - I believe the name is ENRON.

One more thing - according to the latest Commitment Of Traders Report - all big guys are bullish now - of course they are always right after loosing billions of dollars.

HSBC - $10.6 billion (as of February 2007 - and we all know how optimistic that data was )

Merrill Lynch - $7.9 billion

Citigroup - $3.2 billion

JPMorgan - $1.7 billion

Goldman Sachs - $1.5 billion

Bank of America - $1.4 billion

Wachovia - $1.3 billion

Morgan Stanley - $940 million

Lehman - $700 million

Bear Sterns - $700 million

At the end all these losses will probable add up to $600 dollars Tax Rebate founded by the money collected from you and me on the first place.

So we get hit twice - first loosing jobs and houses due to Credit Crisis and after that getting taxed more and seen our tax dollars misused to help Bear Sterns (BSC) and Doctor Hortons (DHI) of the Worlds, fight needless Wars, Subsidize Farmers, Keep Troops in Europe for no apparent reason - well - the re is always a reason, the same old reason - to help rich to get reacher.

"This will lead to only possible logical outcome" ( I, Robot)

Passover - not much trading

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Official name Hebrew: פסח (Pesach)
Observed by Jews, Samaritans
Type One of the Three Pilgrim Festivals
Significance Celebrates the Exodus, the freedom from slavery of the Children of Israel from ancient Egypt that followed the Ten Plagues.
Beginning of the 49 days of Counting of the Omer
Begins 15th day of Nisan
Ends 21st day of Nisan in Israel, and among some liberal Diaspora Jews; 22nd day of Nisan outside of Israel among more traditional Diaspora Jews.
2007 date sunset of April 2 to nightfall of 9 April / 10 April
2008 date sunset of April 19 to nightfall of 26 April / 27 April
Celebrations In Jewish practice, one or two festive Seder meals - first two nights in Ashkenazic tradition, first and seventh nights in Sephardic tradition, only first night for other Jews in modern Israeli tradition; in the times of the Temple in Jerusalem, the Korban Pesach. In Samaritan practice, men gather for a religious ceremony on Mount Gerizim that includes the ancient Passover Sacrifice.
Related to Shavuot ("Festival [of] Weeks") which follows 49 days from the second night of Passover.

Is (DUG) a DOG?

Well, I opened DUG positions yesterday and already been taken to the woodshed, hardly breathing, sweating like a pug ( Not an good thing to do on Passover!),
BUT, after looking at this chart

and noticing that high for USO just hit Fibonacci Fans ( which I am NOT big fan of ), I decided to take another chance and added DUG at 30.81
Will pay a big price for been reckless indeed.
Also, after market jumps like that - how mugh better can it get? You saying "A LOT"?
Oh my...

"Rising Oil Prices GOOD FOR ECONOMY" ( someone on CNBC )

While I was in the "process of waking up" ( which always takes enormously long time for me and the hardest thing during this process is to figure out "WHAT PLANET AM I ON"? answer ) and CNBC on ThinkOrSwim trading software was on, heard something which cheered me up and helped to shorten "wake up process".

Someone, who - I would not care less, one of those rich ma...,,... or those rich bit... hmm... women ( what is wrong with my spelling - still dizzy I guess ), that someone said:
"Rising OIL prices are GOOD for economy AND workers because those exposed to energy field will get salary increases".

Normally I am "not always in accord" with CNBC mumbling, but this time I agree 100%.
With small interpretation...
"Those exposed to energy with their FRONT END will CONTINUE to get richer, but those exposed to energy with their BACK END ( people like you and me who don't sell energy, but pay for it and everything related) will bend over even more and take it deeper then ever"

What a country - and guess what - there might be some "I can be President" types who might actually BUY THAT NONSENSE.

I, for one, urgently looked up few energy stocks I would love to short ( under certain price conditions), here they are:
(PKD), (PTEN), (BAS), (PQ).

So long, I am still not quite awake...


P.S. The answer I really want to know: "WTF (GOOG) earnings has to do with economy and how making more money on companies desperate to replace LOST CUSTOMERS indicates good times to come?"

"Common Sence is not so Common"

Thursday, April 17, 2008

NASDAQ 100, DOW and other Happy Campers

This is truly amazing...end of post

Now, Start of new post - lets use some charts and facts...and charts...

After whatever ER GOOG pulled QQQQ After Hours is trading at about 46, helped by SNDK, "Value Stock MSFT" and some other symbols I have no idea what they stand for... well .. I do, but this is not the point. The point is that:

I will be closing my long calls and long positions tomorrow during the day.
I am insane...
That is a good answer, but not good enough to deny myself a chance to make some Bold Mad Money ( Don't forget - Cramer said about a week ago - the worst is not over - sellselllsellllll)
But here is the reason - THE CHART, uh-huh!
I did not put coments or arrows - but look at the white horizontal priceline, right under Fibonacci 38.2% ( 46.30 ), it goes across the chart showing the area where most hiccups occurred in both directions.
And it is right at $46 - that magic area again - we played before..
I agree that almost a year old resistance does not matter too much, but it still does if you look at January's 2008 selloff, well - look at the volume...I bet there are still a lot of bagholders, pardon me - investors wishing to get the heck out at break even.
If move up will be sustainable to the point of going up to $48, then we'll get ourselves a stagnant range between 46 and 48 for a while.

I don't think it will stop QQQQ from rising at the end, but it will definetelly push it downward ( some ) and present with opportunity to re-open long positions ( If such desire will still be intact after the end of Spring Earnings Period somewhere in Mid May - end of which is sadly famous for marking the highest point for the tech ... until the end of summer)

OIL topping?

Everybody has been watching Crude Oil prices to go up up and away day after day month after month...I, for one, not really a "commodities" guy, but I have been watching oil prices as well - it affects my well been, hits my pocketbook on multiple fronts - at the gas pump, in the supermarket and at a lot of other "hard to mentally connect with oil" places.

But yesterday I opened substantial DUG ( US Oil Trust UltraShort ETF ) position, kept it overnight and intend to continue to add to it after meaningful moves - up OR down.
The reason is pretty much the same as when I went long USO ( US OIL Trust Fund ETF ) Nov2006/Jan 2008 period - DUG had huge volume spike, over 200% of average last month volume which already was high enough to point to some kind of "panic selling/beginning of bottoming" phase.
It is hard to go against the herd - it might be as painful to stay in that trade as it was back in 2000 to stay short Tech - I will not know until later if "that was the right time".
It does seam to be illogical with anything related to Oil, especially OIH Oil and Gas services ETF setting "almost new high" just yesterday...

It might NOT be the bottom for DUG, it might be "just a temporary" bottom, but I think DUG has potential to go up to $36+ area.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Springtime for...

Can I be any more vague? I can try and try and try and ... I can try to do anything to not to upset faithful longs, followers, believers, always ending up at the cleaners longs...
I am in that strange state of mind - have received number of emails with very unhappy remarks such as " People like you CAUSE market to go down" - OH MY GOD! I wish I had some of that much more stupid can THAT get? Another reader writes: "Because of people like you, pessimistic, cynical, IBI MENE IBI PATRIA type - America is giving up its world dominance!" ( My Latin is very rusty, but I think it means "Where good there home country" and secondly, I think that is WAS really easy to dominate the world where there was none else competing with USA )
Anyhow - it is springtime and I had a lot to do out in the yard, therefore I'll be brief:
Steel Producers and Oil Services companies are going DOWN NOW ( long or short term I have no such POWER to know, but I am loading up on LEAP puts tomorrow morning )

Friday, April 11, 2008

Picture worth a thousand words

Charts don't lie

Except for the when Big Fat Institutions need to continue to unload What Is Left Of Big Fat Garbage Class Assets to Hopeful Naive Stupid Fat Lazy Faithful Retail "Investors".
Below are few charts with SELL signals on "straight" ETFs and BUY signals on Inverse ETFs.
( Unfortunately I was cleaning my laptop yesterday night and accidentally deleted DIA chart with Beautiful SELL signal on 2 days timeframe)

GEodness Gracious!

GE? Nothing will affect the longest standing DOW component? Not even publicly known 40% of entire business been financial? Not even another 20% of other business lines depending on GE Financial? Will it be enough of the taste of the real world for HOPEFUL investors? Will it explain low volume rallies as of late? Will it finally answer the question "why stocks move up within 30 seconds 5-10% and sit flat after that on 10 times higher volume?" Is it the time to wake up again and smell...not the roses, but burning rubber of falling apart Greed Machine, Machine which is strong enough to destroy lives and financial well been of workers in order to squeeze extra penny? Anyways - why do they have 3 months of vacation in Europe? And we ( Americans) - have the right to laugh at them? ( Europeans )


P.S. It sure feel safe to be in the market on the days like today - when you short hope and lies...
Do we even wait for the stupid tax rebate/incentive knowing that Uncle Sam and Local Daddy of the Town will come right in and take away more than we got? They have an answer - for "THEM".

Monday, April 07, 2008

Stock Market Sectors Watch or Farewell to the Sick Bull

As you figured out by my few latest posts - I've been eagerly awaiting market turn and today's action prompted me to run my analysis not like I do once a week on weekend ( it is a very time consuming chore ), but also on Monday night.
Right or wrong - picture is not quite rosy for hopeful Bulls ( "Hope" word does not play well with the stock market, even less when CNBC .... trying to be polite...start talking about "changed global picture, new economy" ... all the usual .... well CRAP )
Good news ( for the Bulls ) first:
Here is a list of long positions I will be opening or partially opened today:
DUG, QID, SKF, IXJ and DBA - of course except for IXJ - healthcare and DBA - soft commodities ETFs all my "long" positions are SHORT - how funny is that.

Now, short:
USO ( YES - this is the time), EFA, XLE, IGE, SLX, OIH, FXE ( good news for $?), SPY, DIA, QQQQ, XLB, BBH ( sorry biotech hopeful)

Foreworned - forearmed...

Morning Gap

This morning's opening Gap on yet another lame news of "money for needy WM" ( damn beggars - who is helping ME???) propped most of ETFs right to Fibonacci levels and presented great chance to go long, yeah, long on (DUG), (SKF), (QID)

Friday, April 04, 2008

Intraday Market Update

NASDAQ100 components - 80% of them least to say off its intraday low and at intraday high right now as I type. SPY comp. 2 over 1 in positive territory.
Wait a sec $TRIN is 1.10?
Volume? Lame? That is the word?
SPY hitting top of clearly defined pattern at 137.50-138 area?

QQQQ right under 46.35 Fibonacci level?

Hmm.. I was REALLY bullish last 2 weeks - I am going RED HOT SHORT RIGHT NOW.
QQQQ puts, DUG "catch the bottom" position ( feeling suicidal )
added to SKF calls.
Have to note - STOPS will be set really tight. I am not used to staying in a way of irrational market. Just here to make living - not just to be right.

So much for (VMW) downgrade

(VMW) was downgraded yesterday morning before market open:
VMware downgraded by Lazard Capital
Would "MORONS" be too weak of a word for them?
(VMW) added as of right now over 18% in less than 2 days.
How about me putting it on a "BUY LIST" on April 2nd "trading notes" list?

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Repost from real time Members SIte

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

When it feels sooo... good....

This is when long positions have to be trimmed down, short looked up - think against the herd - you'll win on a long run.
My TV set is off - but I can hear CNBC talking head/pumpers ( they are been paid by stock market - what is going to happen with their fat checks if stocks will go to 0 [ZERO] ?)
Market IS very bullish today - I expected it and went into today' session 100% net long ( except for RIMM puts )
Was easing up on my long positions during the day, left some for tomorrow - the moment 401Ks and in kind will be used up - it is still a BEAR MARKET - do not dilute yourselves - seve some money to be wasted by your wifes :)

Agg stocks breaking out

Eased up on HNSN

Looking to buy LDK - small position

Intersting action on HNSN :) ( patting myZelf :))

Now, what is going on with FLML? huge options activities ( both sides calls/puts - I can understand that nano/bio are way to unpredictable )
In addition to that it is attempting to get above Fib 38.80 level ( so did it do multiple time a while back under not so good market conditions )
Will see

HNSN sees volume pop

and yesterday there was a HUGE calls buying - what's up?

MOS is about to break yesterday's

volume resistance - more to upside

getting one more push to the upside

After that it will depend on short covering

DBC trending up

watch commodities,metals makers, infrastructure to upside

Out of:

SLV - way slow
3/4 of position VMW - for a very nice 15 minutes profit

VMW update

Market Makers/Locals just hit stop orders hard - bought into VMW

Oil services moving off its lows

Infrastructure builders are to follow? - FWLT for example

CHINA looks very "speculative"

VMW has some shaken down accumulation, was upgraded yesterday - watching

Will add SLV

right under $160 - another 1/3 position

Trimming long positions

Cut 1/2 of:
$RUT Apr690 calls

added long
MOS 3/4 pos now
BLDP 1/4 pos

opened long
SLV 1/3 pos

Monday, March 31, 2008

Buying back into Aggs

Added some MOS, MON, POT on pullback
Added DRYS Apr65 calls


Accumulation is picking up in TIBX - good ER/CC - shaking weak hands?
VMW is way more riskier as long

AMLN about to move up intraday?

Retail Unusually strong today

PSUN, URBN and so on

Homebuilders strong

Airlines to follow?
They still in sell signal thou

SLV, GLD, USO - short?

When it feels sooo... good....

This is when long positions have to be trimmed down, short looked up - think against the herd - you'll win on a long run.
My TV set is off - but I can hear CNBC talking head/pumpers ( they are been paid by stock market - what is going to happen with their fat checks if stocks will go to 0 [ZERO] ?)
Market IS very bullish today - I expected it and went into today' session 100% net long ( except for RIMM puts )
Was easing up on my long positions during the day, left some for tomorrow - the moment 401Ks and in kind will be used up - it is still a BEAR MARKET - do not dilute yourselves - seve some money to be wasted by your wifes :)

DBC is finding support on Fib 24% level

Time to load back on commodities related stocks and shippers?

Repost frpm Member Site

Monday, March 31, 2008

Buying back into Aggs

Added some MOS, MON, POT on pullback
Added DRYS Apr65 calls


Accumulation is picking up in TIBX - good ER/CC - shaking weak hands?
VMW is way more riskier as long

AMLN about to move up intraday?

Retail Unusually strong today

PSUN, URBN and so on

Homebuilders strong

Airlines to follow?
They still in sell signal thou

SLV, GLD, USO - short?

Thursday, March 27, 2008

USO/DUG divergent big time

Oil topping out?


This morning meaningless news about some terrorists interrupting oil supply in Iraq - I cannot recall off the top of my head, but percentage wise Iraq's oil does not really matter - only this new pushed oil higher right before April's contracts expirations ( together with natural gas ). Therefore, based on this presumption ( of course I might be wrong - was before ) finished building DUG position - so far, having a very rough ride - this is what we get when trying to catch a top - if I will - that double top will work for a long time.