Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Throwing Darts

At this point on the tape, and as Osi mentioned earlier.... might as well buy a lottery ticket and tack it to the wall as to guess what's next this week on the tape. But that's okay, we're patient, and when volume does return in the new year we should be very well practiced on our various methods of T/A and be ready for just about anything. But for now, we're still on gap up/sideways/slightly down/possible 3:30 ramp job/Groundhog Day until further notice. The McClellan Oscillator is looking a little bit interesting tonight, but other than that I really can’t dig up any mind blowing clues on the charts. If you can, please do share. The reason I mentioned GS a few times today though was because I do think it bears watching for the next few sessions, and undoubtedly, it was showing strength today. On the other hand, it has been showing weakness since October and the general market hasn’t skipped a beat, so perhaps it’s not the weathervane it has been in the past? Before I share Zig's T theory charts, I also wanted to let you know there is another Corey Rosenbloom webinar next week for those who are interested. Best of trading to you hardcore crazies who have made it this far in these holiday weeks- it's almost over. ;-) Have a very, very Happy New Year celebration! As Squiddy mentioned earlier, it’s a blue moon tomorrow night, and also partial lunar eclipse for you moon cycle watchers. One last thing: we have a zillion methods applied to our trading techniques, and I know DDT would be the first to say we’re all open to everything under the sun and then some if it makes us a profit. Like many of you, I’m a complete newbie to DeMark, but trust me…. it won’t stop me from making a fool of myself or asking a million questions along the path to enlightenment. I hope the rest of you will join in with me by making fools of yourselves too so we can learn this crazy stuff? Good, I knew I could count on you. DDT and I will be checking in here and there in the interim during the holiday weekend, and fortunately our group here can keep the ball rolling in the meanwhile. See you all on the other side! 2010 is going to be a great year for TTWrs! And with that, let’s start off the new year with a lesson from Zig Zag for all of you fans out there…..

Screen shot 2009-12-29 at 7.05.16 PM

Screen shot 2009-12-29 at 7.06.35 PM

Goodbye 2009! Don’t let the door slam on you….

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

3 is one cool number! (CBAK)


Sometimes, we really have to slice and dice and flip and turn and toss and … you know what I am talking about – you’ve done it many times, don’t even bother to say “no, we did not” – we all did, when we don’t see what we think might be “there”

On 12/10/2009 I posted quick note on XING and CBAK (I just searched if I stole the glorious idea from someone – nope, no other people as I can see posted anything about CBAK on Disqus)

DavidDT 12/10/2009 11:40 PM
looked over few charts (no, did not break PC and not going to stop trading...yet)
longs - XING and CBAK

  • Leisa 12/11/2009 08:07 AM in reply to DavidDT
    HPJ is also in the space of CBAK....It is one of the many rocketships that I jumped off!

    I went further at the expense to look like a fool and pressed CBAK over cell phone email sent to Keirsten on 12/14/2009

    We all know what happened today (well, I had CBAK in my “secondary” account – so, I just found out that I had nice lotto ticket – plays like that keep me interested)

    Now, WHY I kept pondering CBAK and what was so special about it on the first place?

    Well, first of all – it is junk, POS company, just like thousands of companies stocks of which double and triple when market nearing tops on low volume – retail and boiler room shops having fun.  Look at the last days of 2007 – from $4 to almost $7 in the blink of an eye, I know – history does not repeat, but…sometimes it does

    Next, weekly chart was a beauty in the eyes of DDT:
    Completed TD Countdown Buy (AND new TD Buy Setup as well) AND right at the area of prior TDST (Hell YES – they do act as support/resistance lines long after they have been crossed few times already).
    Worth noting – that TDST line was from initially “non perfected” setup – perfection was achieved quite brutally in the beginning of March.
    Anyhow – weekly – BUY – check mark.

    2009-12-29_2123 trading off daily chart would put us in the poorhouse, but then again – why would we be  trading daily if weekly provided wider DTRL incompatible with daily setup? 
    Next – one of my favs – 3 days interval (if you remember 3 days was decision maker on short gold call…which I did not take due to being heavy long dollar at that time
    DavidDT  ·
    12/02/2009 01:55 PM
    for goldbugs
    $YG_F Gold $$
    Posted on Fly Me to the Moon.)
    AND, to be fair – Fujisan posted this on the same day:
    It's interesting that Person is pointing out that Gold would peak tomorrow on Dec 3 (seasonal tendency) in his presentation at TOS right now.
    2009-12-29_2138 Finally – why have I wasted so much time for “horn tooting”?
    There is always another trade we might be able to find by looking at multiple timeframes/correlated sectors – we just need to look hard enough … without forcing it.
    Different topic – Small Cap – (IWM)
    my 2c:  bar 7 (not 6 closed above TDST Res) and sustainable move could be expected if it had happened on bar 3-4.  Also, two consecutive bars after perfecting sell setup closed under TDST Res – signifies loss of momentum.  Thou, we shall not overlook benefiting small cap from strengthening dollar.
    And here is another “3 days” – how ‘bout that 9-13-9 forming??
    2009-12-29_2154 P.S. May be I read too much of DeMark – I am beginning not to understand what I am saying myself
  • Monday, December 28, 2009

    “Looking Back OR Forgotten opportunities” - (NRG)



    While our friend “Crowe” is keeping himself busy with top secret project “DM9” – I’d like to  use a chance for slightly higher level of attention to my, yet another, ingenious idea, than I can get during highly active market.


    Before I introduce this idea I would have to look at the rear view mirror, which I hate to do – we all are so selectively smart in the hindsight, but I really have to do that to illustrate the “practical need” for…but history first.


    On the night of October 16th (yes, during that famous “rectusangle on SPX” when we, at least, most of us, tried to trade direction of the market overlooking individual stocks’ action) I wrote in my “trading journal” (you really need to see my trading journal – it is state of the art magnificent achievement of organizational science – and I never paid a dime for that – all I need is ANY ENVELOPE from yet another bill) – “NRG – go long Nov 27 puts tomorrow on the open”.



    Next day this particular part of my trading journal was used as a stand for hot cup of coffee and then, as always, it has gotten out of the way to the place where all pages of my trading journal go till I throw them away – behind the screen of my laptop.  Today I finally wiped dust from the table and found this “page” and a lot of other  no less profitable pages – IF I remembered about their existence.


    In the best traditions of Jerome K. Jerome’s “Three Men in a Boat” I tried to talk to another Dave and point to the funny part of situation such as “while you were busting your ass chasing “big move on the indexes” you could have made a lot of $$$ by looking behind your laptop once every other day”. 


    Somehow I have not found any of that funny and therefore I decided to ask TTWinners: “Would creation of public Google Spreadsheet where everyone has own sheet with stock ideas coming and going on/off the list, would such idea have practical value for TTW community?” (So many good traders, great ideas, a lot of time goes into research – can we put it to good use somehow?)


    IF after discussion we will find it useful I might be able to plug it right into the blog at the very bottom, so everyone may have constant access.

    Of course, in this case, people like me would have to remember about that spreadsheet…yeah… sure…


    P.S.  If any smart ass will point out that I was on the cruise till October 20th and it was absolute impossibility to write down anything on any envelope on my table at my house – I will take great pleasure in banning his/hers “Nick/email/IP” forever – I am telling a story HEA* just to make a point!

    Sunday, December 27, 2009

    Clean Slate

    Happy Post-Christmas Sunday to you TTW traders out there! Yes.. that went fast, didn't it? I hope you dear traders had a wonderful holiday with family and friends- as you deserve it!  Now it's time to play again for the next four days, so let's get down to it and look at some charts before they ring the bell in the morning. Zig Zag has updated a few of his T charts to share and I have a few other various things to keep an eye on going into this week. Rather than drag on about how it could be low volume, the big traders are probably still in Aspen skiing, etc. let's just trade what they give us without too many pre-conceived and contrived notions to thwart our attention or aims to make some money. My dad used to always have one last thing to say on Christmas Day and that was, "okay kids... Christmas is over, time to get back to work and pay for all of this." That meant him, (I knew who Santa Claus was) of course, but I can still hear him saying it after all these years and I admit... it does tend to make me want to roll up my sleeves and dig back in again even better than before. To him (and now passed on to me) it’s a matter of looking forward to a realm of possibilities with a positive mind-set, not wallowing in what could have been or should have been six trading months ago … only what can be up ahead when focus and good work ethic is applied.  If you have the ability to look forward you can like… yes even love what you do, and at that point, work becomes the means to an end, not the end of your means. One more item of importance that bears repeating from our very wise blog host, DDT, and could really serve us to clean the slate prior to 2010 and become resolution number one: "That is what bias did to us (yes, me including) it is surprising how WE - proud CHART traders - LOVE to talk FUNDAMENTALS otherwise why would we THINK that market HAD to go down???"  We'll always discuss the fundies obviously because that’s our nature, but a little more discipline with the charts surely couldn't hurt any of us, right? ;-) So with that, here we go, starting off with Zig’s charts (thank you Zig Zag!) and a few others to keep an eye on this week.

    Screen shot 2009-12-26 at 7.08.21 PM Screen shot 2009-12-27 at 12.55.33 PM



    DDT Here Dec 28th 11:30AM EST

    With 20 comments I feel indecent to do new post, so just two variations of the same chart of SPX (due to studies not fitting on one chart – damn TOS)

    Studies are variation of Bollinger Bands Squeezes – both point to strong move just around the corner and it is normally in opposite direction to the direction during squeeze (W%R hints the same)

    Also (chart reposted from reply to WallFly) 162% fib right above (1135)

    Time will tell…


    2009-12-28_1129 2009-12-28_1128

    Wednesday, December 23, 2009

    Merry Christmas!


    Merry Christmas

    and a very Happy

    New 2010 Year

    to you and your


    From today till after New Year’s Eve postings on this lonely blog may suffer inside interruptions, hardened irregularities, unscheduled fountains of nothing and delays lasting longer than 4 hours. 

    P.S. If any of the “regulars” is anxious to waste his/hers Holiday time on writing post for TTW community – just let K. or me know

    P.P.S. Finally the ad I liked – the guy (Shawn Penn) rolls the ribbon of dollars over the floor
    First 700B “Wall St Bailout”
    Next 600B “Stimulus”
    Then 200B EUR – European Bailout
    last (and least) 3B to help starving children

    Like George Carlin used to say:
    “We have war on everything, but not on poverty – no money in it”
    DDT here
    Dec 23rd 4:40PM EST – cannot get enough of it.
    Tell me – does this chart make any sense whatsoever?  Looks like PERFECT trading chart (and not only in hindsight, there is a rule to that madness)


    Chart above - there is a catch 22 and question (may be I called it "feedback" not quite appropriately) would be:
    1. What are the points of origins for Fibonacci retracements and Fans (it has to do with DeMark stuff, but not Sequential.

    Setting Goals

    Hey... even this guy had a goal that day while loading up his bag. It seems we're all on the same page to set at least one new goal for the 2010 trading year and this was sparked by Osi last night when he posted, "

    The Proposed DeMarkian Project
    Let us start a project to create a master list of DeMarkian stocks. When I can, I will post these, and we vote on which are truly DeMarkian. We will go until we get about 120 stocks which will be the master list, scanned everyday for which have been perfected.”

    We're up for the challenge, Osi! There is nothing better, and for that matter more fun that finding some specific focus and it seems we're all on board to do this. Obviously the holidays are going to put a crimp in it for some of us until we get that out of the way, but that won't stop anyone else who's ready to dive into the dumpster right here, right now. The gauntlet has been thrown,and we don’t even need Arnold to pump us up- we’re pumped for a great profitable year ahead!   Here is DDT’s Google Doc Template in the meanwhile. There is no slow time of the year for traders, only slow tapes. That’s the time to take advantage of a lull to prepare to battle.  If you missed DDT’s chart on VIX, take a long look at it now:

    Nothing much else to say today because to be honest, my own focus is waning while I prep to take off early tomorrow morning for the holiday. I'll be back on Sunday night unless the weather holds me hostage. I wish you all a very happy Christmas, and for those of you not celebrating, I wish you all a restful weekend while the rest of us wear ourselves out silly for a one day event. Who's smarter here? ;-) I'd just like to say one little sappy thing too.... you have all been a gift this year, IMHO. You really are the gift that keeps on giving and you're not taken for granted around here.  DDT, that goes for you too.  Your generosity to let us come here every day to trade and play has been an absolute joy for all of us, and a complete privilege for me to post and share every day. Okay... and one more sappy song too. Hey! It's Christmas, cut me some slack. I'm not a fan of Country Muzak, but this song always brings me to tears and brings it all into big time focus. Did you know some soldiers are also traders too? They’re good too- they understand what fear is and how to face it. If you guys read this, just want you to know we’re thinking about you and your families too. See you all on Sunday, I will miss you all ‘til then… and thank you again for everything you all do around here.  Peace and virtual hugs to you all.

    While Cats …


    whatever they do wherever they are, but none with money seems to be around on these last few trading days of nothing less than spectacular 2009 (forget “why,who,what” – from purely trading perspective that was a blast or bust depending if you got it right or wrong.)  Yesterday was the lowest volume of the year for (SPY), but who really cares for now – the only thing that does matter is that $SPX is UP over 25% year to date and if you lost money this year – you may thank people like Roubini, Nasser, Kass, Knight, Prechter, Denninger and a lot of other one track minded people who really like to think of themselves as very very market smart, but the truth is: Market has nothing to do with logic, personal biased opinions and anyone wearing colored glasses will lose all the money they made once in 10 years when “they” happened to be temporary right.  Even people like Yamada who I deeply respect were wrong quite often this year, BUT – she openly stated many times that this is one of the most difficult years on her memory and when saying that she did not have that idiotic “I am the God” Prechter’s grin on her face.

    The only way to survive and prosper in any market is to develop your own methodology, turn off outside noise with expert assholes telling you what you have to think and do, having strict risk control and HARD DAILY WORK.  There is no substitute for that recipe and if you are still searching for Hole Grail (no matter how expressed) you are, most likely, already lost all your money.

    Hope a lot of people reading this blog have listened to me preaching: “Wave B up monthly will satisfy minimum requirements in November, BUT TDSetup Sell 9 monthly will possibly complete not before January 2010” (I was fighting the system I use for ages last few months – that was really wild ride on the upside, shame on me…)

    Take it slow, enjoy the rest of the year – I will…

    Tuesday, December 22, 2009

    Correlations and Other Fairytales

    I wanted the cashmere sweater and all I got was this lousy fruitcake? Well, that's how the dollar/equities story seems to be playing out currently in the minds of a lot of traders who were counting on a rising dollar/falling equities scenario.

    One of the most discussed issues in the blogosphere I've seen in the past several days is the lack of "correlation" concerning the recent correction with the Euro/USD or /DX alone and the lack of correction in the U.S. Markets. Several times in past months we've seen historical charts that do, in fact, show the dollar can and has traveled up and down with equities through the years, so we have that to remember. But something I saw on one of the EW blogs last night, charted by one of the posters. was also interesting RE: the Euro Index v. the SPX, so I drew up some charts for a visual look at what took place in late '08 when the Euro Index corrected down. It all looks so very similar insofar as the index moving sideways, etc. prior to playing catch up with the declining XEU. Will this happen again? It's like I always say... how should I know, and it remains a "maybe." We are under completely different circumstances at this point, but it's something we can consider, we just can't trade from it. I've also included a look at the gold index and how it also topped before the SPX. Truth be told, we have no idea about these things, we can only try to game it day by day until a true trend reveals itself.

    The economic calendar tomorrow includes: Before the bell- MBA Purchase Apps, Personal Income/Outlays. Consumer Sentiment at 9:55, followed by New Home Sales at 10:00. Petroleum Status Report will follow at 10:30 AM. In other words, green shoots and Skittle shooting unicorns.


    Since no one seemed to like Mariah’s Go-Go boots yesterday,
    now you’re stuck with these old bags and their boots!  How’s that for
    a fruitcake!

    Monday, December 21, 2009

    The very best of all the “JUNK”


    Firstly I wanted to sound smart, mobilize my bored brain cells, write something really big, original, that will be remembered in generations of traders (with average lifespan of “new era” trader of about 2 months till full annihilation of account that fame will not stick for too long), but then I decided: What the heck – it is Holiday Season, it is December (I don’t like to trade during December) and I just want to point out to something of utmost importance – I believe I have discovered The Holy Grail of how to make stocks rise.  Bear with me for just a second longer…
    As you know today’s gap on (SPX) was, in biggest part, attributed to huge gains in metal producers, such as (AA), (X), (AKS), (TIE).  It has ignited my curiosity and I spent some time trying to figure out what caused that rise.  I did not find any big news (was not really looking), but the simple answer came right after market close.  I’ll present it to you after you’ll look at some charts.



    And here is the reason for such spectacular gains (you would have to forgive me if I got that wrong – I am just one logically structured moron who tries to find some rules in unruly times before they going to start shooting)
    21 Dec 2009 18:08

    Moody's may cut Alcoa to junk on Saudi joint venture

    NEW YORK, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service said on Monday it may cut its ratings on Alcoa <AA.N> into junk territory, after the company formed a joint venture with state-run Saudi Arabian Mining Co (Maaden) <1211.SE> to build a new aluminum complex.
    The firms have yet to raise the financing for the complex, which is planned to be built in Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, and will target the Middle East from 2013. For details, see [ID:nLDE5BK0I5]
    Moody's said it may cut Alcoa's ratings from Baa3, the lowest investment grade. A downgrade into junk territory can significantly increase a company's borrowing costs.
    "Given our expectation for only slow recovery in the aluminum industry and in Alcoa's earnings, the potential for further delay in balance sheet improvement and debt reduction as a result of this investment is a consideration prompting the review," Moody's said in a statement.
    Alcoa's equity investment will be in the $900 million range over a four-year period, Moody's said.
    The review is also prompted by a slower-than-expected earnings recovery this year in spite of higher-than-expected aluminum prices, Moody's said. (Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Dan Grebler) ((; +1 646 223 6274; Reuters Messaging: )) Keywords: ALCOA RATING/MOODYS
    (c) Reuters Limited. Click for Restrictions.

    Bingo or in the language of my generation - Halle-fucking-luiah
    The Holy Grail of how to make stocks rise=”just rate them JUNK”

    Inflated Expectations

    Well fellow traders, the expectations for the Santa Rally seem to have been met so far on the tape today. Whether or not it can sustain itself going into Thursday is the unknown factor, but we trade what we see, and what we have is a potential attempt to inflate the tape once again. It would only take one little pin to pop it at this point, but seasonality is on the side of the bulls. Tomorrow's economic calendar will include: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, GDP Consensus, Corp. Profits before the bell. Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM. For those trying to trade this crazy week, please use extra caution as it's lifting on vapors and as the week progresses it will probably get even worse. I took a look at the AAII data over the weekend, and you'll see quite a low on bearish sentiment going on there, but I'm not so sure that's just not due to a lack of interest in this tape at this time of the year. Good trading to us all for the duration, and enjoy the holidays!  P.S. you’ll have to indulge me a little this week.  I am rather excited to see family and friends that have been very much missed, as I’m sure you all are too- my music sharing will be sappy at best, but hey.. just roll with me here!  By next week I’ll be back to playing the blues and wishing they’d all go back to their respective locations.



    Daily Range Projections 12/21/2009

    Futures approx. BO

    Daily Range Projections

    Friday, December 18, 2009

    You'll Shoot Your Eye Out

    With only four more trading sessions to go before the Christmas holiday, the Santa Claus Rally has not presented itself (yet.) I have to say (yet) because I'm one of those fools who thinks she can jinx it. I also use a lucky pencil to write notes all day while I'm trading, and I'm not sure what I'll do once it runs out of lead. ;-) Anyhoo... I have a few charts to share- nothing earth shattering that we're not all aware of, but I'm also keeping a close eye on the Up/Down volume for a potential clue on a bump higher past the previous high. At this point I'm not too concerned with a blast higher but we never know. Use some caution fellow traders, as the volume will most likely really dry up next week and only the hardcore (or crazies) bother to trade for the next two weeks.  I’ll probably be on that roll call myself, but sparingly.  This is also a Friday before what should be a big shopping weekend, so if they tank it, I’ll not only be happy, but exceedingly surprised.  Just don’t shoot your eye out.

    Here's hoping all of us have a safe and happy holiday weekend, and use the time to take care of our needs outside of trading and enjoy life. We are some of the lucky few who have the ability to work when and if we want, so take advantage of that as we go into next week and the week beyond. 2010 is right around the corner and I just know we're going to have a stellar year ahead of us. Thanks to all for every single minute you take to work with this team of traders.


    SPX_121809 We’ve typically seen a fairly good surge to the upside on a hefty spike
    down on this chart, so it’s worth watching as we move along.  In the last thread,
    Bala offered this trading wisdom that’s also something to be aware of for scalping or just staying in previous positions.

    “I've found the following Advance : Decline ratios effective.
    +/- 1000'ish is likely a range day
    +/- 1200-1700 is often a Type I or II trending day
    +/ 1800 and greater is often a Type III trending day”


    Thursday, December 17, 2009

    The higher it goes…


    Gold, why is that people will kill for gold? Oh – because they can sell it and there is no serial number on [most of] it?  Got it, thanks, same old story – money.

    Gold (GLD), (/YG) has been a huge winning trade for some here, we spotted it dead on – date and time. 

    You remember that chart with “weird” interval= 3 days.  As for me – whatever gets the job done.  Setup Sell 9, Fib Time Series off my “secret anchor point” (not much secret if you see that chart shall I say.
    HOW?  LOW?  WILL?  IT?  GO?
    Since we had a hit with 3 days, it makes sense to use it for finding ultimate support and, as you can see on that chart – gray rectangle area is a risk zone of prior sell setup, I just cannot pass on it because coincidentally it is a top of consolidation area, cup&handle, rounded bottom – call it anything you’d like – I think it will provide some cushion least to say.  Within that gray area resides current TDST Support as well – around 1034.50.

    Next chart up is daily one – surgical precision is the word [on the way it worked out].
    Fib 162% off the bottom/top of the base spotted short entry price, Fib Time Series (damn – I am disclosing my trade secrets here!!!) off last known TO WORK TDSequential spotted top, exact top – was really hard to believe.
    But… today first TDST Support was hit, 1100.50 AND Fib level 127% as well, so I think that we might expect some retrace, may be to 1125 area…UNLESS it will break down hard tomorrow and so far it does not look likely.

    P.S.  If, as many of you do, you are bloggers yourselves, you know that the biggest joy for blogger is to see new people coming to their blogs – SPREAD THE WORD :-)

    Futures approx. BO

    Daily Range Projections