Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Straight Jacket Trading

I'm reminded today of just how paranoid we've become watching this tape, tick by tick. And why not? This market has been anything but logical, but that's not what a market does anyway. It doesn't have to make sense, it just has to make us our daily bread. Let's face it, part of what makes this work enjoyable really has a lot to do with paranoia. Trying to divine the next blip on the screen to protect capital really does have some satisfaction or there would be no challenge at all, right?  Interestingly enough, the December 7th pivot prediction seemed to work pretty well, didn’t it?  Between DDTs pivot call (two weeks ago,) Rhae’s cycle work, Zig’s T charts, Inna’s conviction calls and Fuji’s estimation, well.. here we are!  Not bad, I’d say!  Congrats to everyone!

Not only did the problems in Greece finally appear today, but Moodys is also tossing out that little chink in the armor about the UK and US credit rating. Top that off with MCD going flat as a glass of diet coke sitting around for a day or so and the green shoots are bending over. Whether or not Ms. Whitney helped things along today or not... there's a certain sense of nostalgic joy to see the tape go lower when she's on Tee Vee. As a side note RE: CRE... put SNV and ZION on your radar for 2010. Both are apparently heavily loaded with commercial property loans, SNV in particular.

Finally... are those trades on your screen planned? If so, relax a little with the tape today and trade your plan. I mean, I must admit... I was ready to take profits right out of the gate on one of my holdings until I stopped myself and said, "Self... you know where this chart is going, you drew out the technicals, price is proving you right at this point.. what's your hurry?" I hope by sharing my own little paranoid moment with you it will cause you to also put a little more stock and faith in your work, and I've done my job today. Good trading to us all today. Stay a little paranoid but enough confident to trade well.




Alpha’s XLF Chart XLF_alpha As Inna mentioned.. RTH taking it in the chin and trading below the July trend line


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