Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Looking for new beginning

Daily TDWave finally completed on August 5th 2011, fell off the cliff with TDSetup Sell 9 on August 9th and now dancing on TDST trying to bounce …trying … trying ….

I will let it dance without my money in it – for now.




weekly looks quite amazing – it might be the beginning of long awaited and ridiculed P3 – AKA – TDWave 5 down impulsive (then – and it fits – 3 wave up within wave 4 fit in the picture according to Garp… errr DeMark-ian woo-doo




it might be a beginning of new bull market AKA wave 5 up, BUT… BUTBUTBUT…. – dream on – I think we are working off really oversold conditions (I don’t care about “oversold” standalone, but again – it fits the wave here ) and we will continue on our marry way down the slippery slope



And of course rumors of my death were greatly exaggerated – I just feel that countless efforts of the authors of this blog were mostly wasted or ridiculed by outsiders and human nature of blog visitors (most, but not all visitors – there is a core of old timers here who know that there is no better place to really talk about trade and sometime life – without 16 years old wonnabies running amok among us or 40 years old who want to be 16 )


But this is life and we are born and we die – that is applicable to blog too …. may be it would be better if I would be making up trades when there is none and posting pics of naked babes or orangutanishly looking grotesque of a man … Fabio-my-… you know… from “I can believe it is not butter … as well as anything edible – this stuff is made from real .. shit”



Monday, August 08, 2011

Just a lonely monthly chart

Even though we expected downside, more downside, but A/D ratio today was unheard of …1:30 ???

My prognosis was not quite correct – I joked on DISQUS this morning that “we might see 700 DOW down points day” … I was close without being serious … or was I?


Monthly chart proved to be a gem for longer term positioning and if you’ll look at it – you will see what I (AM AFRAID) SEE – …I have a question on my mind … could it be, is it possible, is there ANY chance that long ridiculed and laughed at any possibility of … P3 HAS STARTED???   Well – NOT quite “P3” as long departed (from the list of analysts calling for ANY respect whatsoever) Prechter called for, but as we, De-Markians call it – wave C – the last and most powerful CORRECTIVE wave of multi year bull market has started??? And if so – shall we embrace ourselves for 3 years of downside? Oh yeah … would not be the same scenario that was called for on this blog long ago – that it is almost total reminiscence of 1930th?


2011-08-08_2219 Ohhh…almost forgot – S&P futures are down another 30 points as I type – poor Joe Schmoe can get no break – I have never seen such a trusting people as here, in what is left of once great ‘ole USA.  “Tomorrow might have been a brighter day” – yes indeed – but not for everyone, only for those who bought villas in Paraguay.


I just hope that my worst fears will not materialize – history teaches that when ruling plutocracy is not capable of leading or at least, truthfully lying – extreme left/right might come to power … Hitler is one example



And now for something completely different - just a notch of “dark humor” -

Thanks to our unstoppable T’s resident expert Gold_Gerb (don’t forget to check his blog) here is some funny aspects of trading (funny when it is not you it is happening with – for more info read Jerome K. Jerome )


youtube removed that video, but here is the link at the different site





UPDATE: 8/09/22PM

Was watching rinse and repeat a la Bear Stern funerals psychotic action … 700 down ….500 up…buy the dip…yada-yada-yada … sitting on hands and 100% cash and waiting for the next trading opportunity – no matter up or down …still thinking – DOWN….

Thursday, August 04, 2011

“None saw it coming!” Huh???

2011-08-04_1652 Well, IF “THEY” say so…lets not to point fingers (is not that favorite phrase of idiots who caused the problem on the first place? “Lets not point fingers, but try to find solution to the problem…we created”)


WOW… feels like good ‘ole times, but easy on emotions – here are few charts


Firstly - SPX weekly – support located around 1050-1150 area and TDST conveniently located at 1090 area.





Daily – hit W3 target (wave down), but I don’t think it is w3 – I prefer to think of it as of wC of wave up.


and unless it will print lowest of 21 bars – I am not closing my short position (yeah, I know, I could have made way more, but any money made is better than money lost.

Beside, wC might be printed as soon as tomorrow – just watch jobs report – fear of it was a part of today’s sell off.






Look at the market breadth – was at extremes today – normally bounce after.

Also, little used, but helpful sometimes – TDSetup Buy 8.



88 weeks moving avg – forgot where I saw that it is important, but works quite well long term. (yellow arrow)

important support? Blue arrow (blue line)


2011-08-04_2036 In short I am trying to convince myself to close entire short position for now – I have “some” SPY Sep11 128 long puts that I bought on July 9th around $2 a piece – they closed $9.5 – will try to dump @$10 tomorrow morning or will put stop…but I never really trusted stops and back in May 2009 market proved me right by totally ignoring my stops and executing my orders where I would never ever touch them … mostly because I would be in the hospital with heart attack by then – which would be a good thing on a day of flash crash…Dave – stop looking back!!!

Monday, August 01, 2011

Quick Position Update

Eased up my short positions midday today based on completed TDSequential Countdown Buy (Yesterday) and started midday turnaround (looks like hammer at the bottom)
Will be watching 1265 area to re-open short positions or if 1300 area will act as resistance.  Otherwise will be really careful with shorts now – could be one big bull flag (Not that I believe in market, but I am a victim to inflation )
Some might want to go long, but not me, not here, not now.


UPDATE: Aug 4th noon
 Unable to post on DISGUST, but the answer I'd like to know:
"Will this be the final blow to "FICTITIOUS RECOVERY"?