Saturday, June 30, 2007

As volatile as it gets..?

Rates? Valuations? London? Israel? Commodities? Your neighbor's cat?

How about "Money Managers and Performance Measurement"?
<=== A.K.A. "Trading places" effect ( for movie buffs like myself :) - remember Eddie's rationale as "Why we should NOT buy before Christmas"?

Think about dim witted portfolio manager (I don't want to insult all portfolio managers, but I happened to know some really moronic ones) for mutual fund who will get paid based on quarterly/half year performance of his assets under management. June 29th is the last chance to cut under performers, take some profits on "winners" and chaotic attempts to position portfolio for the next quoter.
It might not make a lot of sense to retail traders who only think "year end tax selling", but it makes hell of a sense for "professionals".

We ( small fishes - retail traders ) will stay in the game, will not let negative emotions caused by meaningless market volatility to affect our best judgments and hopefully next week will bring low volume short lived rally we will be able to capitalize on. Just don't forget to sell on holiday's week - week after Big Guys are going to be back from vacation and will take us ( me and you - small timers) to the cleaners.
Happy 4th of July and ... Good luck.

June results are in!

Below is a snapshot of ALL ideas posted on public site in JUNE 2007 ( these ideas have been taken from lists created for PREMIUM SERVICES subscribers and represent small portion of fee based lists ). All trades are LONG ( market was "bad"??? what a nonsense!)
Returns are as of JUNE 29th market close.


Sunday, June 24, 2007

Answering emails

Just received email with legitimate question: "Why would you waste your time offering fee based so called PREMIUM SERVICES if results of your trading IS profitable and if NOT ( not profitable ) - why would anyone will be willing to pay for nothing?"

Hmm.. that is just the type of question I always had in regards to "buy on our recommendations - get rich fast" services.

Here is my answer
1. I am not "wasting" ANY time - I just reveal my homework in preparation for MY next week's trading for reasonable fee to other traders.
2. I don't HAVE to sell this service, as it is seen on periodically posted snapshots of lists - I do make money on most of my ideas.
Results of recent ideas "PREMIUM SERVICES"
Then "Why sell?" - extra dollars never hurt anybody - honest enough?

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

What makes a successful trader?

"Being a successful trader takes courage: the courage to try, the courage to fail, the courage to succeed, and the courage to keep on going when the going gets tough"
Michael Marcus

Friday, June 15, 2007

TDAmeritrade DOWN - AGAIN!!!

And not the stock I would not care less, but trading site.
Account info and trading is not available for more than an hour now, hold time on the phone unknown - since none has picked up - even for APEX clients.

Very nice surprise, especially for day traders on quadruple witching day - I wonder if Ameritrade will replenish money for resulting day trading calls...

Lawsuit anyone?

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Monday, June 11, 2007

Market thoughts

Positive market action on Friday was not too convincing due to lower volume than on prior down days, I believe that we are not just "Not out of the bushes yet", but that we are just "getting there".
Still, I see more attractive long setups than shorts ( at least short term with vigorous risk control ), therefore here are some long ideas:

(IRBT) - this one is risky, shall be kept on a very short leash

As for sectors - looks like semis are getting out of dog house ( at least some of semis), utilities ( especially - water utilities ) look very bullish to me.

Lenders had nice recovery run, but I don't think it will hold.

and - INDIA - for the longer term in off shore plays forget China, viva INDIA.

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Just for fun

Two long ( I am crazy - may be :) ideas for tomorrow

(WSII) and (IPGP)

The tide has turned

The question, I think, is been answered - equities market entered correction.
Yesterday's selloff was broad based, but volume was lacking, it was not low - just was not impressive, but still - it has got me worried.
Plus, unusually high for one day number of my longer term positions hit trailing sell orders ( in the range in between 5 and 10% - depending on corresponding stock's "true" daily range/volatility.)
Today's selloff added volume, big volume, no panic yet, a lot of methodical selling.
Then I looked at how bond market is acting - and started to sell remaining long positions at a market. By 3PM I was 80% cash and I will liquidate remaining holdings tomorrow morning into the pop.
I am not short yet, mostly due to not seen really nice sustainable short setups, but for next few days/weeks I will mostly be only day trading or just staying away from the market somewhere on exotic island ( or just my own backyard :)

Good luck and ... save your chips for the next big game

Sunday, June 03, 2007

Boring Historical data

As a follow up to the last post about "cutting it" I'd like you to take a look at my old as of December 2006 trading ideas ( which I stopped maintaining as of Jan 12th 2007 ).

See for yourselves - almost every single trade closed at a slight loss on Jan 12th would be still at a loss as of today or lagging in the best case scenario.

Keep in mind that since I just stopped maintaining that "public" spreadsheet - I "closed" ALL ideas on the same day therefore diminishing returns from "good" positions - but than again - you might see what kind of returns those "positive" closed positions would produce as of today.

For those of you who interested in "future ideas" there is always a "Members Only Fee based Site"

City Slicker in New England or "Having fun mowing your lawn"

Ever since I was a kid I had a very bad memory, it is not that I was not able to remember anything (except for the things I did not want to do of course), but I had difficult time memorizing subjects like history. That is when I learned to memorize things "by association" and this is why instead of promised topic of "cutting losses" I'd like to talk about yesterday, that is my yesterday.

Brief biographical data: I was born and raised in a big city ( 2.7 million people ), I always lived in big cities, loved that city living with all my heart. Then so happened that I had to move to rural New England's town with about 30,000 habitants. Nice clean wealthy place - "old money" type of.

So I had to adjust my lifestyle some ...and one of numerous adjustments I had to make was - I had to start mowing the lawn and I tried to avoid it by hiring "professional" who successfully ruined it by cutting top soil with the grass and it took significant efforts and some hefty amount of money to reanimate it.

If you want something done right... and I bought a lawn mower ( I just could not imagine myself riding a big kick .. tractor on my segmented 1.1 acre lawn.

Every single year I make the very same mistake - I keep postponing "first cut" for as long as I can. I keep ignoring fast growing grass, I keep "forgetting" about it, I try to come up with every humanly possible reason for not doing it ... and here comes the time when I cannot see my dog in the grass ( I have lovely Golden Retriever of very impressive stature - some call her "fat" - I call her using politically correct term of "big and tall".

Anyone who tried to cut 2 feet tall grass with a push mower during very rare New England's sunny days ( in between of the rains ) knows what kind of torture that is.

Every 5 yards you have to stop and empty it out, you have to use your hands to clean that mediocre discharge hole,you have to mow the same spot 2 -3 times otherwise place looks like a small Nebraska town after tornado, you have to pull the tarp with the wet grass to the wood ( I got planty of woods, I can tell you that - with all the mosquitoes in the world living right close by ), you run out of gas and forced to take a shower and drive 20 minutes to the closest gas station and then to the next one, 'cause the first one is "closed for flu".

And of course the day when you finally cutting the damn grass happens to be the hottest, most humid day from all the days you could possibly pick for torturing yourself before that day.

Your legs hurt, you are sweating like a 200lbs pig, your eyes are itching and tearing full of pollen, you becoming a raging human flesh the only desire left is to "DO IT TODAY, ALL OF IT - it is going to rain again for the next 10 days!".
You don't see, you don't feel, you do not distinguish anymore between lawn and your wife's flower garden or UPS package laying on the driway, your feet start to slide on the slope under insultingly grinning at you your very own lawn mower ... and here comes the moment of truth - you fall on the grass and cry and ask yourself THE question:
"Why, or why I did not do it before?
I knew I will have to do it.
I knew it will cause more pain as the days go by.
I knew it will cause a lot of pain if left growing.
I knew I will have to do it in the very inconvenient moment.
I knew I would end up killing more grass by pulling it out of the soil, that actually cutting it.
I knew I would have to cancel whatever plans I had for that day - and may be next few ones - my mood is too screwed up.
Why did not I cut it while it was low and enjoyed the peace of mind - and while in a good mood I could come up with some new great ideas ( instead of constantly thinking how to avoid cutting "it")


Why did not I sell that stock with 7-8% loss and let it go down 40% and ruin my portfolio and state of mind?

Oh well, the least you can do now is to take a look here and have some healthy laughter (at yourself)

Saturday, June 02, 2007

Forget recession - it is party time!

Bears are nowhere in sight, everyone is happy , everyone is making some money ( except for those who still loosing their pants trying to fight the tide )
My ironic thought on upcoming correction have not materialized .. yet, I am prepared for turnaround and meanwhile I am riding the Bull with the mob.

Here is a link to my trading ideas entered at the end of April ( and bought at the different time bases on "buy trigger conditions" I believe will produce max gain in the shortest period of time and as of today, June 2nd it is up to you to judge if average return of 7.95% in 16 trading days at the daily rate of +0.69% ( not to forget - that list was entered ONCE and not maintained actively, no stocks were "sold" - kind of public demonstration of "buy and ... forget", indeed - my regularly maintained list produced noticeable sizable results )
my My trading ideas from the end of April

Later this weekend ( when I am back from Warden Blocks presentation } I will post ( REpost, stress again and again ... and again.) my thought on importance of ending the very first day when particular position is open in GREEN.