Sunday, February 28, 2010

Disqus fixer upper


Sorry folks  - have not even had a chance to touch my laptop until now (not even speaking of looking at the charts), just posting this as (hopefully) solution to "prior thread mysteriously closing by itself" (Later on this might be updated)

Friday, February 26, 2010

Weekend at DDT's # 3,569

We made it to the weekend! It was almost merciful to hear that ending bell this afternoon, wasn't it? Just to make it even more tortuous the tape gave nothing much to trade, and left things once again in limbo. That's fine, we'll start all over again next week and be right back in the groove. There are several overlapping cycle dates from various methodologies in the next several days; everything from important Gann dates to the full moon if you follow it, so perhaps although all seems well on the surface, there's something else around the corner.

Although we usually do a lot of charts on the weekends, I thought you might enjoy a very good video on harmonic patterns. This is nearly an hour long video, packed with specifics that should clear up questions and curiosity about Gartleys, batwings, butterfly and more... and you'll learn how to measure them and make projections. If you'd like to start applying this to your trading in conjunction with your other TA preferences, click here to watch the video, as presented by

We also have Zig's fine family of T charts below for you to look over for the next few days. Zig, nobody does it better! Thank you so much!

Other than that... no matter what happens each week on this tape, I can't think of a better group of co-workers and collaborators I'd rather hang with every day, so thank you as always for all of the contributions- even when things get beyond tough. Let's look forward to next week, find time to do something other than charts over the weekend (yeah, right.. in our dreams,) and we'll meet back here on Sunday night for a huddle. MoneyFarm has really been carrying his weight with individual picks lately, and maybe we can come up with Plan B on days like today when we anticipate low volume and a lackluster tape. Even on days like this, there were stocks moving in a big way and someone taking home the profits.. let's make that be us! Thanks everybody! (Thanks DDT for giving us this playground every day ;-) Last one out turn off the lights..... P.S. Osi, don't scare me like that again- this nuthouse wouldn't be the same without you.

zig collision chart zig indu 2 26 zig diamonds
For a very special person who understands my crazy life….

DDT Here - Disqus is acting crazy and somehow closing comment thread.  When I try to re-open it, it is still closed.  It is beyond my control - sorry folks.

Getting back AT the stock market




Yesterday's action was… wonderful for those who were positioned short going into the market open …and who were smart enough to take profits.


I am dumb and I did not take over 20% profit on my options account (I have different account for everything – I just don't remember where they are)


Profits I did take saved my sanity when, after I got home after lunch, I saw now only retracement to reasonable levels, but briefly some shades of green on ($SPX)


As much as I wanted to say that the game is rigged, that all crooks deserve to go to jail, that GuberMint which is supported by only 20% of population they govern should get the hell out of the way, peacefully pretty  Don't want to stop looting?  Not until Stopped?  OK… duly noted… So, as much as I wanted to do something which would be conveniently rationalized by human emotions – I did squawk, nada, zilch… I just sat there for a long time and tried to understand – what part of my brains temporary stopped functioning yesterday?  Normally when I have HUGE on the spot profits – I take it and run (I played Blackjack in the past life and some casinos were not very happy to see me).  Not yesterday….


AnyHOO – I did get back AT the market utilizing The Only Way I can afford to do that – picture is right above – you get the picture. (I kind of have small stinky bathroom – could not take that picture straight…or may be…just wanted to get out!)



P.S. This video is still being processed. Video quality may improve once processing is complete.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

More of the Usual

.. is back in town. What can be said that wasn't already noted in the posts today? Days like this really do try the souls of men (and women,) but we pick up, regroup and take what we get tomorrow. Hopefully it won't involve another can of whoop. From rumors about the purchaser(s) of the IMF gold to Obama's proposal to ban all foreclosures, (that's right folks, not only will they make sure stocks never go down again, but now they want to make it illegal to be foreclosed on. That ought to make banks anxious to make new home loans, right?) it was one of "those" days we've seen all too often. Who cares how it was manipulated, it happened, case closed. The bear was scalped again.  Brush yourselves off and be ready to trade tomorrow with your best skills and a positive mind-set at the ready.  That’s how we trade around here, and exactly the reason we indeed have had a better year overall.  “Since the house is on fire let us warm ourselves.”  ~Italian Proverb   Capiche?  Me too…  ;-)  FX traders, we don’t thank you enough for your watchful eyes, so here’s a big thanks to you all, and good trading to you tonight!  To some of our newbies, Hibernatin’, loser, SoulJester, Gump.. and all of the rest:  welcome on board, we look forward to your contributions. 

On the economic calendar tomorrow:
Before the bell: GDP, followed by Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment at 9:45. Existing Home Sales Data will be released at 10:00 AM.

indu_2_25 iwm_feb_25
gdxgld_feb_25 qqqq_feb_25
cpce_feb_25 nyupv_feb_25

Sing it loud, TTWrs! 


Wednesday, February 24, 2010

10 rules for position sizing

Ed Seykota - 10 rules for position sizing

Ten rules for position sizing:

1. Bet high enough to make meaningful profits when you win. 

2. Bet low enough so you are ok financially and psychologically when you lose.    

3.  If (1) and (2) don't overlap, don't trade.

4. Don't go adding a bunch of rules that don't work, just so you have ten rules.

Speaking of "Don't go adding a bunch of…" – there is nothing to say, nothing really new or surprising, we set on downside, we survived today's … to say it politely… "Witch hunt", "short rules for long John Q. Public", "convulsive moves of clinically dead market" … and I heroically {temporary} won the battle for normal blog functioning (it has been a while since my "techy" days). Market ended up, futures falling down, we are going in that direction..yes – that one..why are you keep asking?


The answer I'd like to know:

"What do you like more - Keirsten's hand crafted/counted D-Wave chart of (FCX) or that really ugly girl?"

{For the record – I've never seen anything more beautiful than Special K's chart…}


"Ugly girl"


"Special K's Beautiful Chart"



P.S. How dare are you to ask what this post has got to do with "position sizing" or "any "sizing"


Today's economic data

Market Focus »

Weekly Bill Settlement

Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET


Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET


Sandra Pianalto Speaks
8:35 AM ET
Ben Bernanke Speaks
9:00 AM ET

FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

James Bullard Speaks
12:30 PM ET

7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET

Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Turn Around Tuesday

The highly anticipated DM sell signal went swimmingly well for those of us in position today, but now the question arises: the signal went away on both the daily and hourly charts today, so the road is a little more foggy, but we'll watch the charts, keep all eyes on any and all other pertinent TA signals and trade carefully.  It was mentioned by Fuji that volume was once again on the light side, and although I agree, I also see that as a potential game changer in the works.  Why?  Well, because light volume has meant helium filled ramp jobs, and that trick didn’t seem to work today, so it’s those little changes that we need to monitor.  ( kind of like that repetitive pattern of every Monday is a slam dunk bull run- as Bob Dylan sang, “The times, they are a changin’?) 

I'm going to keep my usual blather to a minimum tonight so as to let the charts do the talking. As DDT said, and I'm sure most of you feel at this point, it is a complete pleasure and honor to be trading with this group, and on days likeAUDIENCECLAPPING this it's simply stunning to watch things unfold. This takes a whole lot of effort from each and every one of you each day, and anyone who thinks there aren't long hours and hard work to prep a plan like this have never traded a tape like we've had these past months. Many, many thanks to everyone. The skills are becoming better with each passing day for all of us.  Let’s move on to some charts. 

Before I forget, the economic calendar tomorrow will include Benny speaking (somehow he disappeared from the radar yesterday,) and will also include: MBA Purchase Aps at 7:00 AM, New Home Sales at 10:00 AM, Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 (good luck oil traders!) and a 5 Yr Note auction at 1:00. Looking ahead to Thursday- Durable Goods and Jobless claims at 8:30 AM, followed by another appearance by Benny at 9:00 AM.

nyad_feb_23 bpnya_feb_23
vix_feb_23 bid_feb_23
xlf_feb_23_001 ndx_feb_23
indu_feb_23_001 rut_feb_23

In honor of Alpha’s Renko charts, I can’t think of a better song for our
FX traders tonight!  Good luck TTW team!

EDIT to ADD:  In our never-ending quest for continuing trading education on TTW, I thought I’d mention a free webinar featuring Corey Rosenbloom tomorrow, Feb. 24th at 4:30 PM EST on “Trading Intraday Momentum and Market Internal Divergences.”  If you’re interested click here to register.

DDT here – thought since I am in the critical mood ( is it derived from "cretin"?) I give you performance ratings of "gurus"


Same Day. Same Event. Same Market. Different Story!

"There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts." -- Robert Prechter.
February 23, 2010
By Vadim Pokhlebkin

Elliott wavers sometimes hear the criticism that patterns in market charts can be "open to interpretation." For example, what looks like a finished 1-2-3 correction to one analyst, another analyst may interpret as 1-2-3 of a developing impulse, with waves 4 and 5 on the way.

Does this happen? Absolutely. (Although, there are always tools an Elliottician can employ to firm up the wave count.) But here's the real question: What's the alternative?
Typical alternatives amount to analysis of the "fundamentals": Jobs, interest rates, CPI, PPI, what Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday -- it all goes into the pot. Result? Well, if you think it's clear and unambiguous, guess again. Here's a fresh example.

Find out what really moves markets -- download the free 118-page Independent Investor eBook. The Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" news events. Learn more, and download your free ebook here.

On the evening of February 18, in a surprise move, the Federal Reserve raised its discount rate -- the interest rate at which it lends money to banks. The next morning the S&P futures were pointing lower; everyone was bracing for a weak day -- because, as conventional thinking goes, higher interest rates are bad for business, the economy, and ultimately for the stock market. Friday morning, stocks indeed opened lower and major news headlines confirmed:

  • Wall St opens weaker after Fed move
  • ... Investors Wary After Fed Move
  • Stocks Open Lower After Surprise Fed Move

But around 11am that same morning, the DJIA turned around and moved higher. Now look at what the headlines from major sources were saying after lunch on February 19:

  • US stocks bounce back; Fed move viewed in positive light
  • US Stocks Up A Bit On Fed Discount Rate Increase
  • Stocks Higher After Fed Move

What was a "bearish move" by the Fed in the morning morphed into a "bullish" one by the afternoon! Same event. Same market. Same day. Completely opposite interpretation!

This brings to mind the answer EWI's President Robert Prechter once gave when asked about the objectivity of Elliott wave analysis. Bob said:

"I always ask, 'compared to what?' There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts who look at the same 'fundamental' news event -- a war, the level of interest rates, the P/E ratio, GDP reports, you name it -- and come up with countless opposing conclusions. They generally don’t even bother to study the data. Show me a forecasting method that is totally objective or contains no human interpretation. There is no such thing, even in a black box. To answer your question more specifically, though, properly there should be no subjectivity in interpreting Elliott waves patterns. There is a set of rules and guidelines for that interpretation. Interpretation gives you only the most probable scenario(s), not a sure one. But people mislabel probabilistic forecasting as subjectivity. And subjectivity or bias can ruin that value, just as in any other approach. Sometimes we screw up. But in contrast to the outrageously improbable (if not downright false) wave interpretations or other types of forecasts we often see from others, we are as close to an objective service as you’re going to find. We hire analysts who know the rules of Elliott cold."

Find out what really moves markets -- download the free 118-page Independent Investor eBook. The Independent Investor eBook shows you exactly what moves markets and what doesn't. You might be surprised to discover it's not the Fed or "surprise" news events. Learn more, and download your free ebook here.

Vadim Pokhlebkin joined Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave International in 1998. A Moscow, Russia, native, Vadim has a Bachelor's in Business from Bryan College, where he got his first introduction to the ideas of free market and investors' irrational collective behavior. Vadim's articles focus on the application of the Wave Principle in real-time market trading, as well as on dispersing investment myths through understanding of what really drives people's collective investment decisions.

Daily Range Projections for 02/23/2010




    Futures approx. BO





    Daily Range Projections



    Low Tolerance

    High Tolerance

    /ES S&P500 Futures





    /NQ NASDAQ100 Futures





    /DX US Dollar Index Futures







  Follow IntraDay Updates on Twitter 





Today's economic calendar

Market Focus »

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET


8:55 AM ET


S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET


Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET


State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

James Bullard Speaks
5:00 PM ET

Monday, February 22, 2010

Tight Range

So much for Mutual Fund Monday, folks. Although that *was* the norm for weeks on end, it is no longer a guarantee for the longs. It has been hit or miss now since the end of January on that trading cliche if you go back and review. So.. we're in a tight range instead today post OPEX, with some sectors flirting with support while others are playing kissy face with resistance. Either way, it feels like something will pop as you can only stuff just so much energy into a phone booth before there's just no more room to go but one direction or the other. On the other hand, sector rotation should be monitored carefully for clues, because they can certainly keep the plates spinning by just moving the game pieces around and around on the board.

Earnings after the bell include: BRCD, MELI, JWN and HMA. Tomorrow will include: HD, SHLD, M, TGT, SAFM and VNO.

On the economic calendar tomorrow: Redbook and S&P Case-Shiller HPI before the bell, Consumer Confidence and the State Street Investor Confidence numbers at 10:00 AM, 4wk and 2 yr auctions at 11:30 and 1:00 respectively, and James Bulltard will speak at 5:00 PM. Our friend, Benny, will not only be speaking today, but also on Wednesday and Thursday. Ode to Joy!  Regardless, we’re going to have a very good and profitable week, and that’s an order!  :-)  Good luck to us all while we navigate together.  In Hawaii, they have a saying…  Hang Loose.. it’ll come to us.

spy_2_22 qqqq_feb_22
xlf_2_22 xlb_2_22

An ode to our fellow trader Big Island, while he enjoys life on the Big Island..
and some of us are still waiting for winter to go away…..