Thursday, February 11, 2010

Nowhere market

Remember when you were a kid and your Mom was telling you: “Don’t leave so much food on the plate – poor children in some poor country have nothing to eat”? (of course she did tell you something similar and it is no longer the point that she was just politically correct all American Mom who did not understand that things change and instead of caring for poor starving “3rd world” children she had better put those leftovers in the bank , so you, her grown up dysfunctional inept politically indifferent actions scared chicken sh…shhhhh  [huh?] children had something to eat today instead of watching all your food mysteriously relocated to, what you naively thought of [because you were told so by your owners] of as a “3rd world”.  This is the price you had to pay for so called existing only on the paper “freedom” and bill is now due.

Anyhow, I am an old guy and I brought up the subject of the food left on the plate because…the amount of money I left on the plate yesterday and today would be enough for “me times 3”.  I did very few trades.  First I closed FCX puts…making about 12% overnight – which is not bad, but HELL – I bailed out without good reason and even more – I did say: “It looks like short the open”…and I covered way too early leaving another 25% profit on the table.

Then I went long FCX calls in spite of everyone saying “market is gonna dieeee” and I made another 10%…and I sold too early in spite of myself saying “we going much higher”, sure we did, but I was nowhere to be found in the trade since I already sold…and so I did few other similar, but smaller sized trades – pretty much leaving at least 2/3 of the potential profit on the table. 
Same story happened today while I was fooling with /DX.  Right timely calls – leaving at least 1/2 of the potential profits on the table.

Why?  I do have something resembling the “reason” – this market has no idea where it is going and it is to full of itself to listen to people who might know where and when it might end up.  It is on the mission now, mission to confuse most of the traders no matter “fundamentalists” or “that line looks pretty technicians”.
This market is in alphabet soup called A-B-C on a lot of shorter timeframes and it is about to make higher lower high (huh???) and then resume its downward spiral.  Don’t take my opinion to the bank – give me half of it and I’ll put it to my good personal use.

Here is a 30 minutes ($SPX) chart, it worked pretty well lately, I believe we are in wave C and we might sell off hard when it will lock.  That would be 2:30EST today (if it will print 21st bar’s close higher than all 20 closes prior to that bar)

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