Thursday, December 28, 2006

Just a short LONG list

Last time this year


See you all after New Year
Happy New Year!!!

New Year resolutions...

We all humans, we all use dates to make important decisions, we need excuses like
"After New Year I will ..." - and those dots are just what I'd like to talk about.
But first lets have a quiz, simple one, "Yes" and "No" answers.

1. Recently you had a "fender-bender" cause that other person stepped on the brakes all in a sudden.
(Not because you were not ANTICIPATING such event)

2. Your kid asked to go to the country fair together and you were too busy studying the stock charts.

3. You lost on a trade because of intense argument with your better half ( Hey, the "other" half is ALWAYS better :)

4. You did not do something in time ( you were too busy watching delayed YAHOO stock quotes) and your boss did not give you a raise.

5. For your portfolio you created 2 separate watch lists - one for stocks in green and you watch it religiously all the time just for the pure pleasure of it, calling your neighbor to show this list and be able to say: "On average those stocks are up 5%",
the second list which is substantially bigger in all respects, such as number of stocks and negative percentages, but of course, no more than -50%, of course not - your broker most likely sold that deeply margined position to be safe, and that SECOND list is the one you prefer to never look at, agonizingly hoping that somehow, miraculously you will get your money back, sometime, not soon, but sometime - and you quit smoking in order to be able to live long enough to see that moment

6. You come home from work ( let say 7 PM EST) and you run to look at your portfolio and then you say: " I knew it was going to go down - I had to sell yesterday!" instead of "SELLING YESTERDAY"

This list can go on and on so I'd rather stop right here before I become even more cranky than I usually am.

THE BOTTOM LINE - If you answered "YES" to one or more questions, then the "dots" in unfinished "New Year resolution" MUST be replaced with

"After New Year I will NEVER TRADE AGAIN"

After you say that, you might
1. ( Most common one) - BREAK YOUR PROMISE, lose your money, lose your job, family
( SAVE YOU ALL GOD FROM ANYTHING LIKE THAT - I, myself, almost lost everything many years ago )

2. Really stop trading ( tough choice - I know )

3. Find the BALANCE between trading and life, family, work, all that really important non material stuff, re-analyze what you did wrong, stop hiding from reality of unavoidable losses, stop blaming someone else for your mistakes, in short "learn to stand the heat" - in this case

Many Happy Returns, Best wishes to you and your families in New 2007 Year.


P.S. For those of you who are still reading - my "New year resolution" would be to start series of posts dedicated to more detailed explanation ( my understanding ) of
"Trading rules"
( I cannot promise that I'm going to start posting videos explaining "why and how" I picked "that" stock - for me it is close to impossible to answer, for me technical analysis are broken down to 2 main elements
First - very basic chart patterns, some technical indicators to confirm and, plus, many years of mistakes. See - I'm not even good with math!)


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Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Short post or "Stay alert"

Nice day on the market - for institutions when they liquidate huge positions, a lot of blind demand. Oh well, as long as Bull is here - stay with it, but keep an eye on "market leaders" and ask yourself - "Can I call RIMM and AAPL market leaders after the way they behave recently?" Remember - leaders break first, then the rest will follow, all speculative stocks with no profits, no money, just hype...
Good luck and


Having technical problems with new "Members only" site,
so here is a list ( fresh one as of today :)

long: (WNC) (LIOX) <= on pullback (HOV) (LTRE)

"bottom fishing"
(BHIP) (ENER) (NTMD) (CORT) - I would not commit more than 1/3 of regular position to that kind of stocks.

(BBBB) on pullback - current volume does not support price move

(SMSI) back in show - not ready yet to be called "long", but worth keeping an eye on it ( might move after New Year )

Monday, December 25, 2006

New stock list

Following list has been posted at
Trading To Win Stock Lists (MEMBERS ONLY) site
( with entry/exit/strategy )
on Dec 25th at 10:27PM - 2 days ago


short: (EXFO) (TRAD) (IPSU) (RAIL)

In order to access new "MEMBERS ONLY" site you will have to send request to Trading To Win email address. "Membership" is "donationware" based.

All stocks profiled on Trading To Win Stocks Lists (MEMBERS ONLY) site will appear on public Trading to Win site with 2 to 4 days delay.

In order to facilitate navigation/loading time of Trading to Win public site all affiliate links will be removed after New Year.

Current portfolio holdings will be posted on Trading To Win Stocks Lists (MEMBERS ONLY) site at the time when position is open.

Friday, December 22, 2006

Site Contributors

Thank you for making this site possible by generous donations, stream of fresh ideas and just plain love to the Great Game of Stock Market!

Mark A. NH
Cindy K. CA
Rob Z. TX
Carol M. TX
Alex V. NY
Diana S. Spain
Michael G. NJ
Jon R.
George C. NV
Alice K. FL
Tom F. KY
Leon A. IL
Frank J. W. VI
Alan J. CT
Kathy B. MA

And many more...

Thursday, December 21, 2006

JSDA or a secret behind "The Cramer effect"

Was not really going to write any more "educational" posts till New Year, but just saw something which really winded me up, so lets talk about ... Cramer.
Who would expect me to talk about Cramer who serves as an entertainer to "1999 like zombies crowd"?
Well, I just would like to point out that so called "Cramer effect" is not caused by extraordinary power of persuasion of Mr. Cramer and ( to a lesser extent ) by stupidity of people who follow his "advise", but by very good team of technical analysts.

JSDA appeared on my scans few weeks ago satisfying my scan criteria: small float, reasonable institutional holdings, nice short interest, close to 52 week high ( I cannot say that I agree about Mr. Cramer statement about solid grows - JSDA missed badly last quoter).
On December 15,18,19 chart of the stock which was poised to go up formed "stepping" pattern ( I'm not really good with fancy candlestick patters, so you'd have to forgive me - what I see and recognize is based on my many years of mistakes ).
Dec 20 stock broke out gaining 14% on above average volume, next day - really big volume, I just wondering as WHO was buying - but stock does not move much and sit sooo close to 52WH where overhead resistance is nearly non-existent.
And here it is 6PM and here comes "Johnny", oh, forgive me - JIMMY, toting JSDA as next HANS and, you guessed it right - stock takes of in after hours trading.
Look at the chart ( I even decided to post the chart which I don't do very often, so you'd see what I saw ).

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

I'm in New York state of mind...

Yes and no,
to be precise "I'm in Holiday's state of mind..."

As you've noticed I've not been posting too often last 4 days and here is why.
One of "The Rules" says: "No revenge trading" and I normally try not to trade too much during the last 2 weeks of the year, what has it got to do with each other?
Let say I made money for the year already, then I'd be trading to make "just a little bit more.." translation "I have not made as much as I could I want to catch up!" Hmm..
Or Let say I lost money for the year or just did not do well, then I'd be trading in desperation, often not having good reason for a trade except for fear to be down for the year- not good, not for my taste at least
Plus with all that holiday running around, visits to relatives and friends, constant calls, packages and all that noise usually accompanying holiday season - I'd be destructed and pressured to rush in and out of the trades.
As silly as this "restraining from trading last 2 weeks of the year" sounds, - it works for me.
What I usually do last 2 weeks - I try to get a feel of where market will be going and open positions which I'll hold over New Year.
And as of today - I'm ready for 2007 and my portfolio mostly stacked with...that I don't have to disclose UNLESS I post any of the stocks I hold as a daily pick :) AT THE TIME OF WRITING.

Normally I would not post symbols I'm about to post, they all have one thing in common - "bottom fishing", but at this time of the year it is possible to get away with that, here they are:

long: (FORD) (MECA) both are very speculative, of course the worst that can happen - they will go to ZERO ( Not in one day that is for certain :)

I might post more stock lists this and next week, may be even tonight - if not -

Marry Christmas
and Happy New Year!

Saturday, December 16, 2006

How to deal with the "Losing streak"

Dedicated to my friend CHELOBES from TradeGuild - good trader, great guy, better father and even better person.

Firstly, I need to make it clear - I don't want to scare anyone away, BUT - loosing is an integral part of trading. PERIOD.
Does not matter "how good YOU are" or "how cooperative market is", everyone WILL have to deal with loosing trades. ANOTHER PERIOD.

There are multiple ways of dealing with losing position
  • a. Cut your losses at the certain -% point, most widely known advise is 7-8% on closing basis. It is very important - and really easy to do if you don't have love affair with a piece of "electronic paper" going on - I, personally, never do.
    As a matter of fact I am so "not connected" to what I trade - that I may close every position I have just solely for the "I want to go on vacation" reason. Not even a LONG vacation, I might want to fly to Bermuda for a weekend to play golf with my former "BlackJack Buddies" ( They play, I drive that ridiculous car around the course - I hate golf ). Why? I don't want to worry about "how market and my portfolio is doing while I'm having fun. How do I have to relax if I'll be holding Treo in my hand?

    Another very important reason for closing loosing trade A.S.A.P. is that it is close to impossible ( for me it IS impossible - I'm too emotional, not about loosing money, but about "been wrong" part ) to THINK CLEARLY when agonizingly watching you "hard to come money" disappear. GET OUT, CALM DOWN, RETHINK, REGROUP.

  • b. Stop trading after 4 or 5 loosing trades in a row ( this is another popular advise ). If nothing wrong with you something is wrong with the market - slow down and figure out "WHAT" is wrong. Mostly it is just another "switch" and you have to sit it out.

  • c. My personal "strategic" favorite - variable position sizing.
    I don't trade "number of shares. NEVER. This is an AMATEUR thing! 1000 shares of .50 stock versus 1000 shares of $50 stock WILL put you in the poorhouse. PERIOD.

    I trade "amount". My initial position during the course of "normal" trading is 1/6 of my total portfolio value ( no margin considerations ). Lets call 1/6 of portfolio value "X amount".

    So, when the time is right I'd open position for 1*X
    If market will confirm I might add in increments of 1/2*X up to 3*x on the way of my trade ( depending on long or short ), but never will add on the way opposite to my trade - ANOTHER SURE WAY to the poorhouse.

    Here is an example.
    I open 1*X position at $20, it goes to $26. Since I always want to keep ( this is my personal number ) at least 1/3 of the profit on the trade - I have $4 "safety margin", here I might add 1*X at $26 to the total position size of 2*X, but here is a kick - IF TRADE START TO GO AGAINST ME - I will have to close it at $24 - no questions asked and keep 1/3 of the trade profit.
    The good news is - if trade continues to work the way I expect I'm squeezing few ( not double or triple ) extra $$$.
    The bad news is - as I keep adding to moving position - my "safety margin" becoming smaller and smaller and I have to watch it constantly. The max I can go to is 3*X ( This is "swing/short term trading talk", not a "day trading" - Day trading is a totally different ball game, I do day trading from time to time, but NONE of the picks on this site is intended for day trading - all of stocks I post are "short term")

    Now I'm getting to the "loosing" part. If I have 4-5 loosing trades in a row I might:

    1. Use "b paragraph way" and take a break ( this is an extreme measure in case if I feel like "vigilantly" - and the only outcome of "revenge trading" is BIGGER losses. While I'm off the market I'll try to forget that market exists and spend most of my "at home time" listening to the very rare find I fell in love with many years ago.

    2. My preferred way - I will decrease initial position size to 1/2*X or even 1/3*X AND I will be out of loosing trade way before 8% rule, mostly at about 2-3%.
    This way if I continue to be confused by market action my losses will be limited. That is what some famous trader ( Jesse Livermore? ) called "probing"

    I prefer this way since market is not constant, nothing is, market is full of talented and rich players, way better than I am, and since I don't want to "beat the market", but rather "flow WITH the market" and using this strategy helps me to get back "in the flow" with minimal damage. ( If I use #1 "stay out of the market" way - I risk missing the major "flow" and getting back in just in time for another "switch"

  • Thursday, December 14, 2006

    "Suckers rally"?

    Pardon me saying that, it is more difficult for me to say than for most people, I am eternal bull, I believe in progress, I practice O'Neil way of looking at the markets, but... somehow "all time high" with 99 points move with NO SUPPORTING volume does not look so good to me, beside - I knew that it will happen today, of course I did not know magnitude, but as you can recall "weather forecast" predicted "good day on the market ( tomorrow morning will be positive as well - till noon ? )

    Every expected and hoped for breakout was quickly and orderly brought down by steady selling into the strength ( that is what I was doing too), looks like major/experienced traders do not think it'll last ( upside move it is )

    Still, while we don't have confirmed move to the downside I have more longs on the watch list than shorts - here they are.

    long: (NANX) (RDWR) (SFUN) (SWSI) (VDSI) (CRXL) (EVEP) (FIZ) (GCA)

    short: (LUM) (STKL)

    I'm in the "holding pattern", but will be watching very short term trading opportunities as they present themselves.

    Or, what the heck, may be I'll just take vacation till New Year


    *** Urgent update ***

    I will move my 401K TODAY to CASH 100%,
    I WILL use today's strength to ease up on long positions in trading account ( I was selling yesterday all day long) - market is at "Make it or break it" point and I think it will be "BREAK IT"

    Wednesday, December 13, 2006

    "Weather forecast"

    Of course not, but what would you call it when I say:
    "Tomorrow we are going to have a very nice day ( green day on market)
    sunshine ( stocks over 500M market cap will go up ),
    relatively warm and comfortable ( volatility low),
    it will carry over to Friday morning (session) and then we are going to see some rain ( controlled selloff).
    Next week going to be least to say "un-exiting" with possibility of insulated tornadoes and avalanches.
    Don't forget your umbrellas ( I'm 20% cash now, no margin - WOW!)

    P.S. Almost forgot - "congratulations" - we've got ourselves another failed perfectly good breakout - (TIBX). So much for the moment of glory!

    P.P.S. Forgot again - here is unusually short list of longs:
    (CLRK) (FIZ) (NANX) (CAAS)+ (SWSI) (CCC) above 6.22

    Note: + or - sign after stock symbol is a disclosure of my long + or short + position at the time of writing

    Dreaming IS GOOD

    We just need to learn to interpret and stay with what we are dreaming about, at the end (TIBX) dream was not that wrong after all, but I did not have enough conviction to stay the course.

    10,000 VISITORS

    This morning the event of no lesser importance for this site as reaching of DOW 10,000 happened - number of unique visitors reached 10,000 and it took about two months ( Since this site was listed on Google and other major search engines on October 07, 2006).

    Big "Thank you" to all who visited and continue to visit this site, to people who contributed ideas, thank you to those who supported this site by injecting $$$ generous donations or renovating their library ( or entire house ) using this site's store and I hope you can always find some useful insights helping you to stay the course on the road we've chosen - TRADING.

    Thank you and good luck to all of us!


    Tuesday, December 12, 2006

    Tuesday evening "quickies"

    (FIZ) (NANX) (SWSI)

    and (AVCI) update - unless it is going to move above 7.85 - I'm
    "optimistically cautious"

    Waiting, waiting, waiting...

    WHAT are the traders waiting for? Everyone knows there will be no increase and mostly everybody who has common sense knows that there going to be no hint of "rate cuts", not yet, economy is not THAT bad ( Except for few hardcore speculators who will be dumpung huge speculative positions opened right prior to the FOMC meeting ).
    I expect market to dive for few minutes and go up after - it's been in a "holding pattern" for a while - enough already.
    Waiting, waiting, waiting...

    Sunday, December 10, 2006

    Sunday night candidates

    Sector thoughts:
    Biotech, Nanotech, Commodities, Gold, Indian Stocks, Energy will move to the upside
    Metals and Mining - still have some steam left
    Semis are shaky

    HealthCare still is in the dog house, Retail is about to get there, as well as Big Pharma

    long: (AVCI) (EVVV) (SIFY) (RDWR) (SWSI) (SYGR)
    (IFNY) <== risky (updated Dec 11th 9PM - I thought it was risky and it is, now is NOT the time for that - scrap it!)
    (EVEP) <== thinly traded
    (CCC) - IF it'll move above 6.25 on volume

    ( since I'm not getting any questions - how I play my stock picks, I guess everyone knows everything even without "strategy note" - "no problemo")

    I've been cautious about (CAAS) ( long pick of 1200tec from TagBoard) as a long candidate since Nov 19th, but I'm keeping an eye on it, if it'll be able to move above 11.97, I'd say it might become nice breakout play

    I'm beginning to think "short" looking at (CHL)
    (VAR) still on a short list

    And as always - PLEASE - re-read an article "My Trading Style" - among other things pay attention to "Trade Expectation Lifespan" - as I stressed out in that post - IF TRADE DOES NOT PERFORM according to my expectations under ONE WEEK PERIOD - I CLOSE position even if NOT LOOSING. For example of how it WILL save from losses look at (TRLG) long pick as of Oct 30th, position could be opened on Oct 31, then PPS drifted down, never violating -8% rule, then on Nov 7th it came back up to a break even point
    ( here another rule kicked in DO NOT PLAY EARNINGS!) so that position had to be closed due to 2 reasons combined 1. "break even" - is a laggard action, 2. Earnings. Following of that strategy would help to avoid whopping 28% loss next day ( Nov 8th ).

    The point I'm trying to stress over and over again - follow the rules, price for breaking the rules is too high, money NOT MADE IS BETTER THAN MONEY LOST!

    Here is an example how I EXPECT IT TO WORK: (ASIA) posted on Nov 15th, could be bought on Nov 16th, broke out withing next 5 business days for astonishing gain of 40%+ in two weeks. Worth noting - it all happened AFTER earnings, so those who think that the only way to make quick money is to play earnings are DEAD WRONG ( and playing Russian Roulette with 90% known outcome )


    P.S. Watch "Market Leaders" - run for cover if they will start to brake down!

    "Do I want to have this position?"

    Finding the answer to this question has become more difficult last week, I've been having "uneasy" feeling about continuation of market uptrend, a lot of fellow bloggers dedicated a lot of posts to that subject, I will not be talking about technical indicators, indexes, sentiments - use links on the right side of the page ( These are the market blogs I read )
    I think I found my answer and it's been formulated when I was writing "Breakout Play" post.
    My answer - breakouts don't work as good as I'd expect, I've seen way too many false or short lived breakouts lately. What does it mean? One thing for certain - market is nervous, market lost leadership once again ( Look at (AAPL), (ADBE), (MOT), (RIMM) - they've been straggling last few days to hold the ground)
    Will market go down? I hope market will hold till Christmas, and then it'll go down.
    Correction? Bear market?
    I don't know - what I do know, I'm prepared for action if under attack - in Marines they say: "If under attack, don't freeze, do something, retreat is an action too" ( No, I was not in the Marines, not in this country at least )

    Friday, December 08, 2006

    Good things come when we sleep...

    Never remember what I saw in the morning, so I woke and writing it down now: (TIBX)
    Will figure out tomorrow what it is all about

    UPDATED 12/08/06 1:26PM - forget (TIBX)

    Thursday, December 07, 2006

    "Breakout play" interpreted

    Breakouts... one of my favorite ways to make money...
    Most misunderstood by general public concept resulting in losing money...
    Most misrepresented by institutional advisers / talking heads - in order to take your money...
    Looked at Google Analytics today and saw that about 70% of visitors of this blog come from Yahoo Finance message boards - that means that most of readers, very possible, are beginning traders/investors and due to the fact that 2 out of 3 of my ideas are (or very closely resemble) breakout play - I feel obligated to drill down to details of what it is and how I play it [breakouts].

    "Buy low sell high" - no offense but those who have became affected by propaganda better stop reading now ( not that there is something wrong with value investing - but that is what it is - INVESTING - and I'm not interested in making 9% over the next 20 years, I'm interested in, let say modestly - doubling my account in the GOOD year and not sitting on dead money on the bad year )

    Simply put - breakout is a move out off the top of solid base. ( If base is a "Pennant" top is considered to be upper trendline )
    It happens when stock which was not capable to penetrate "resistance" level ( or, let say - commonly believed "top" price for the stock) absorbs all the selling and shorting and then moves to the upside )

    Good news first
    If you are in the right breakout at the right time - you are going to make money faster than just by buying somewhere IN the base and hoping for a stock to rise. ( or fall ).

    When stock exhausted its upward momentum, you sell it and go shopping for another 10-50% runner.

    The bad news
    3 out of 4 breakouts are "false breakouts" when stock is not capable of continuing upward move due to various reasons, to name a few: market mood change, no buying interest and such.
    What happens after false breakout ( I consider temporary pullback to be a false breakout - temporary ) - stock will go back to the top of the base to form "cup and handle" chart pattern, consolidate, shake off selling pressure, weak hands and move up thereafter OR stock will re-enter the base to become dead money for a while ( if not forever ).

    Important question would be - how to spot real breakout?
    Two most important components:
    1. VOLUME - MUST be at least 130-150% of average monthly volume.
    2. SOUND BASE - you can use link on the left side of the site ( "Chart Patterns" ) and read more about my favorite ( and "safest" if there are such ) bases ( "Rounding bottom", "Cup and Handle", "Flat base", "Pennants" ). When there is NO solid base to break out from - that kind of breakout is more likely to fail.
    VERY IMPORTANT - breakouts out of the short base ( lesser then 6-8 weeks in duration are in most cases prone to failing on the same day even if there is volume increase. I, personally, like to see even longer bases )

    So, whenever I play breakout I prepared right out of the gate to lose 2-4% of my stake - this is why money management and position sizing are SO IMPORTANT. ( For more on money management and position sizing visit Trade Guild Blog published by Brandt A.K.A. BullTrapper - a lot of "right to the point" articles on this subject on that site ).

    When opening position to "play breakout" you cannot "set it and forget it" - you cannot just place stop limit buy order and go away. Why? Since most of the popular discount brokers do not offer mechanism for incorporating price AND volume into your order ( and even if they do ) - it is best to monitor your intended/entered trade closely - this way if it is a false breakout without follow through on price/volume side - you'll have better chances of getting out with minimal damage ( the more chips you save the better your chances of catching real breakout and capitalizing on such ).

    How to spot stocks about to breakout? It is a topic for a different article, which might follow.


    Crude awakening

    This is what I think market is about to face - oil will go MUCH higher.
    If I'm wrong - I'll be very happy - I still have not closed some of my long positions.

    Wednesday, December 06, 2006

    9:00 AM Wednesday morning update

    Futures are pointing to "slightly" lower opening for equity markets and I thought it might be a good idea to throw in few LONG ideas which might present nice buy opportunities today


    I'm stuck in Atlantic City today, played Blackjack till 4AM, left with "even money" - highly unusual for me - I normally win, oh well, like my friend Jobe02 from Trade Guild Blog says: "You cannot win 'em all"

    I'll be staring at laptop most of the day, so if anyone will have any urgent questions - I'll be able to answer in a timely manner.

    Tuesday, December 05, 2006

    SIRI or "My word is stronger then oak"

    Those of you who thought "Jerry McGuire" are correct - same kind of "word". Some of you saw "that" Cramer's show ( circus?).
    Now I have a real question: What are the chances that misleading 'we are on target' statement was not the only 'not quite complete statement' on that show - how 'about 'We are NOT going to merge with XMSR'
    Hmm.. I think - I beginning to believe that merger IS in store.

    "Tonight only" Brandt ( A.K.A. BullTrapper publisher of Trade Guild Investment blog ) will be hosting video presentation on the subject of "SIRI happens".

    Please visit the site of my friend, teacher ( at his young age he achieved more than most people who lived the market twice as long), whose discipline and dedication helps me to stay the course.

    Sunday, December 03, 2006

    Deja vu?

    Do I see (TNOX) again? But this time it is (TRIB) - life will tell.
    Otherwise - did not do my home work, therefore - good night

    Saturday, December 02, 2006

    Helix Energy (HLX) take or "Can we rely on insiders' transactions"

    First - confession.
    No, not that "I don't know anything about market" - I do know "something" and constantly learning, the day I will place my last trade I still will be learning something new about market, because the moment I stop learning and say "I know Market" - mighty Mr. Market WILL send me to the poorhouse. I was broke before, but I don't want to be poor.

    But the truth is - I don't know ANYTHING about OIL and OIL SERVICES, "nada".

    That is why I'm glad that mj76 from TagBoard asked for my opinion on (HLX)
    May be because I posted "reversal alert for (SUF) since they have something in common, no, not just "oil" word, but ...

    Let say that as funny as it sounds: "UNPROFITABLE" oil.
    What am I saying, everybody will be laughing at me - let me rephrase:
    "Hard to get or hard to process oil" - hmm.. slightly better.

    Helix Energy specializes in servicing oil fields just like that - remote locations (deep water) or with exhausted main field.
    ( Speaking of (SUF) - they provide/ still in the process of testing of "Sonockracking" technology to help increase output of usable oil )

    What do I know about Helix?
    Cramer does not like it. Who is "Cramer" - the guy who claims he made so much money on his stock picking abilities that he does not have to work anymore? Verdict - ignore Cramer's opinion for particular stocks, case dismissed.

    Fools ( that is "Motley fools" ) like it - unfortunatelly MFs had less then impressive track record last few years. Are David and Tom still the ones who make "David and Tom" stock picks?

    Merrill likes it? Lehman don't Goldman loves it?

    Since when ANYONE cares about YOU, individual investor, especially "free caring"?
    Or paid "investing / trading newsletters" - why do they SELL newsletters instead of MAKING MONEY on stocks they promote?

    My friend came into my "trading office" on Nov 17th 2006 very upset and started to blame me ( in a "friendly" way ) for misleadingly telling him on Nov 5th that oil has bottomed and it is time to buy into oil and oil services again and now, he says, oil took a plunge yesterday and his wife does not like him.

    What struck me as very odd was not that his wife does not like him ( I would not either ), but what for some people looks like disaster ( my friend ) for others proves that they were right earlier, of course I was able to see Nov 17th as exhaustion day ( prices did not really go down that much, but the volume was huge!)

    And I did not need to know anything about oil, and as I admitted I still don't know much.

    Back to (HLX)

    Missed earnings estimates on 10/31 - no big surprise there I guess, did they warn on
    9/29 or 9/30?

    Float 86M - not to my liking, but not bad

    Institutional ownership 84.6% of float
    - hmm.. they call it "grows stock". I can agree it is a grows company, but how stock will maintain its upward PPS move for extended period of time if big money almost finished to "load the truck" (Should not have touched TV remote on Friday the 13th at 6:23PM - CNBC popped up on the screen, I'm asking for forgiveness of trading Gods now )

    Gross margin, price to sales, PE - yada-yada-yada...

    CHART - now we talking - very nice move last 10 days!!!
    Wait - dismiss my admiration for the company's stock move in the difficult time for oil - OIL (USO) MOVED UP last 10 days! Well, still a good news - it is not lagging, but
    when (HYDL) and (BJS) started to move up even BEFORE oil bottomed and (HLX) just followed reversal in oil prices, tho outperformed in terms of PPS gain due to oversold conditions ( 23% vs about 7% for peers), it makes me worry some.

    It makes me even sadder when I see "off the bottom price" move
    (HYDL) is up 50% off lows on 10/05/06
    (BJS) is up "only 20% off lows on 10/05/06 ( but it never lost as much as HYDL or HLX)

    NOW I'll try to answer main question - about "large(st) insider purchase"
    I presume we are talking about Mr. KRATZ OWEN who bought 700000 shares for total amount of $2,082,500 on Nov 17th

    BRAVO! He MUST know something or he is a greatest trader alive!
    Hold on a second!
    Let me take a look at his transactions

    "3-Jan-05 29,759 HLX Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share."
    in today's PPS of about $37p/s he's got $1,071,684 of free money - not bad

    "13-Jan-05 60,000 HLX Option Exercise at $18.06 per share.
    (Cost of $1,083,600)"
    more free money, with a PPS about $20 at that time it is about $1.2M in the pocket, BUT - it makes him look really dumb and not "in the know" about company business prospectives - PPS went up OVER 50% during next 2 months, "great" trade - missed $600,000.

    "7-Oct-05 55,000 HLX Option Exercise at $19.63 per share.
    (Cost of $1,079,650)"
    with PPS of $29 it puts another 1.6M in his pocket - not bad, BUT PPS goes up another 50% during next 3 months!!! He misses $800,000 - he must know something about company!

    "3-Jan-06 44,250 HLX Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share."
    in today's PPS = $1,637,250

    "1-Mar-06 628,463 HLX Option Exercise at $9.32 - $13.38 per share."
    that puts another $23,881,594 in his pocket and as usual he misses extra $6M run for the next 2 months.

    "3-May-06 15,000 HLX Purchase at $40.08 per share.
    (Cost of $601,200)"
    PPS immediately plunges to $30 in 2 months thereafter - GREAT TRADE!!!

    "4-May-06 15,832 HLX Option Exercise at $9.32 per share.
    (Cost of $147,554)" Now that IS a good trade - market falls and takes HLX with it
    Anyhow - another nickel in the packet - just about 700,000 in the packet

    "15-May-06 10,000 HLX Purchase at $39.15 per share.
    (Cost of $391,500)" "stock is VERY cheap now, time to buy now" - never mind loosing another $10 next month.

    Now, that final "big insider purchase"
    17-Nov-06 70,000 HLX Purchase at $29.75 per share.
    (Cost of $2,082,500)

    So out of about $26 millions dollars he's got out of listed transaction ( I'm curious - how many options he's got left?), he makes 2M purchase - big stinking deal!

    Sorry, but for me he looks like a "Bad trader - selling in fear" and "Not in the know" insider "buying in greed" - DISREGARD "big insider purchase"

    Back to the chart, now this is what I think about STOCK PRICE action:
    It is at a slight resistance right now at $37, if it does not make it ( I think it will make it ) it will look like it is forming descending triangle.

    Next more important resistance is $38 to $39 area, IF it makes through and thereafter through $40, it'll go to $43 - and I think it'll stop there.

    $65 Price Target? I hope those "analysts" bought (HLX)

    (I'm curious if someone wandering if "DT" stands for "Dumb Trader" - I will NOT answer THAT question :)

    Friday, December 01, 2006

    (SUF) reversal alert

    Old news

    Interesting development on (ZOLT) - was it a decision to halt trading or the negative outcome was priced in (ZOLT) is back to where it was before yesterday's intraday runup, I guess expectation of that bad news was holding the stock down, I'll wait till Tuesday and might even buy (ZOLT) for longer than just a day trade.

    Did not trade today in accordance with my silly self indulging rule "After big hit (up or down) take a break" and since yesterday's trades in (AVGN) and (ZOLT) pushed portfolio value up 8% - I was doing nothing, absolutely nothing today.

    Forced miself to look at some ideas which I present below
    long: (NRGY) (AVGN) (CLRK) (STLW) (TSYS) (FALC) (BLTI) (CHCI) (LMS) (IVC)

    One more thing - don't get trapped tomorrow morning on initial market pop, I think it'll be down the hill since 10:30AM continuing into Monday.