Getting Messy

By the way TTWrs: I think we might have missed wishing DDT a Happy Birthday, but better late than never. He's a Taurus- isn't that ironic? HA!

He has his hands full, and so do I, so I know he appreciates you regulars who keep the ball rolling over here during the day. Hat's off to you all for that!

I'm tossing up a few basic charts to look at. Nothing fancy, just the simplest of things to pay attention to. I'm monitoring the NYMO intra-day and it went up to -11 today before it pulled back, so no touch of the zero line, but that might be good enough for a short-term pullback.   The IHS I shared on the dollar seems to have worked out well so far too, but it’s getting frothy up here, and the EUR, although hitting new lows today is facing support from below at the ‘08 low.

We all know the games that are played during OPEX though, so be on your toes in both directions. That's my best advice. I'm still watching/waiting for next Thursday as it has a lot of what Joe8888 calls vibrational "stuff" surrounding it.  Laundry followers are keeping a keen eye on that day, too.  For you loonies, we're in the New Moon phase now.. will that work? I don't know, I continue to err on the side of caution either way, and keep the tin foil adjusted.  No wave counts, nothing fancy, just trade the tape they give us and expect to have them not make it easy.

The VIX is of special interest here for certain, and the knuckle draggers are once again warning the peasants to buy put protection after last Thursday's tank-a-puhloozah, so volatility could be getting itself very cozy at elevated positions.

Good trading to you all, and have a good Friday!

DDT.. no kvetching about your birthday either.. just give this a good listen when you get back to the blog.  ;-)

Chearts

Since Mr. Big requested one more bed time story, I will indulge him this much.

”Speaking up for herself after years of silence, Goldilocks confirmed her intent to "sue the pants off" the three bears. "I've undergone years of therapy," said the golden-locked beauty, "I'm sure you can imagine, post-traumatic stress and all."

Goldilocks, who is being represented by attorney Robert Shapiro, filed suit against Papa Bear, Mama Bear, and Baby Bear earlier this week. "My attorney said I have multiple grounds for my case," explained the blonde. "First, Papa's porridge was so hot that it gave me blisters of the mouth. Secondly, you may recall that Baby Bear's chair broke into pieces when I sat in it, clearly a homeowner's liability issue. And of course, there's the obvious stress of being awakened and chased away by three hungry bears. I can't leave out the total humiliation of hearing my story told over and over throughout the years."

After his attorneys explained that Goldilocks had a rock solid case against them, Papa Bear said, "We should have eaten that little brat when we had the chance."

The moral of the story? Eat or be eaten. It’s as simple as that! I’m posting up some potential trades for tomorrow (and beyond if they stick,) but trade at your own peril as always, and please do your own due diligence and re-read the disclaimer if you haven’t already over to the right of your screen. There isn’t a short in the bunch, and it pains me sometimes to say this, but… we have to trade what they give us, right? Okay. These are charts I love (chearts) that include after hours price action on them, with my own random notes, etc. Hopefully this will encourage you to hunt down something profitable for tomorrow as well. Good trading tomorrow, and don’t let the bed bugs bite. I will be away for the next several days, but will check in when possible.

.. and now a song with the name of another tale…

Blowing up Accounts and Other Bedtime Stories

"When we refuse to acknowledge or accept the perfection of each moment in our lives, we deny ourselves access to the information that we need to expand ourselves. Any skill that we need to learn to express ourselves more effectively has a true starting point. To find that true starting point requires our acceptance of each outcome as a reflection of the sum total of who we are so that we can first indentify what skill needs to be learned and how we might go about the task of learning it. Without this true starting point, we will operate from a base of illusion." - Mark Douglas

I sense DDT was a little tired tonight, and I thought I’d give him a surprise in the AM with a fresh post, so he won’t have to.  Earlier in the day there was a small discussion about blowing up accounts, and if that qualifies you to be a real trader.  I’ve blown one.. or nearly blew it.  That little account still has a small balance of $672 in it, and I keep it open to remind myself of what my recklessness once did to me.   Notice I said “my” and “me.”  Ownership is really an important trait of a good trader, IMO.  I once had a very wise older man tell me something that sticks with me to this day: most problems (in life) are the result of our poor choices.  No, not those things that come out of nowhere and are randomly dumped upon us, but I know you know what I’m talking about here.  Being the egotistical little beings that we are, that’s a hard pill to swallow sometimes, but rings so true, too often.  If you can’t take ownership, you could just stay on the treadmill of the repeat-a-thon.  Anyway… I have just three charts to share tonight.  Nothing earth shattering, no big Ah has!  I don’t know what’s around the corner anymore than any of you do, so just taking it one day at a time, one trade at a time.  Best of trading to you all tomorrow, as always. ;-)

Now, completely tongue in cheek here.. but my female buddies and I like to sing this sometimes when we’re rowdy.  Just seems to fit tonight.  For you DDT.  :-)

 

Capitulation or Something Else?

I could do about a thousand different charts after we witnessed that sell-off this afternoon, but we can each add our own special recipes down in the post section tonight, and I look forward to whatever you all have up your sleeves. What I'd really like you all to see are the individual charts on the Flying PIIGS. I know we've all been reading the news as this story unfolds, but to be honest, I had really not looked at the technicals on the individual charts until last night. They left me speechless. Forgetting the fundamentals, rumors of bailouts and the like, the technicals by themselves are not too stellar, IMO. Several already have a death cross completed with the 50/200 SMAs. I'll let you judge for yourself, as I'm only going to show you the very basic view of each one of them. When the Trichet statement came out this afternoon, it was one of those “things that make you go hmmm,” moments for me, needless to say. You will also see DDT's and Osi's EOD views for the DM look. As we always do on TTW, remember to use caution trading tomorrow, as we try not to count our chickens or flying pigs before they hatch or crash. This was a one day event, we need to stay trading with heightened awareness. Best to you all! P.S.- Bravo, Osso! He called the Friday lower low rule last week, and although it looked pretty precarious this morning, it’s looking pretty good now!

P.P.S. for newbies and lurkers out there: You will read many, many various trading observations, opinions and calls on this blog, from bullish to bearish- that’s why we’re different here. You will often see us challenge each other- and often. It is YOUR responsibility to understand and/or ask questions if you’re confused or want help/further opinion… we can’t read your mind, but you can count on us trying to answer/help. This is a place of learning and sharing, but the trading is YOUR responsibility alone, not ours. Rule #1- never take a trade that is not based on your own T/A and choice. Lead yourself, do not follow. I can’t emphasize that enough. Read the disclaimer at the bottom of this blog site completely, if you haven’t already. I have seen plenty of “gurus” with loads of happy followers take their trades blindly with both good AND bad results- don’t let yourself be one of those people.

DDT’s chart on /ES

Osi’s SPY Chart

Free Your Mind

"A narrow mind and a fat head invariably come on the same person" - Zig Ziglar

I just wanted to reiterate the gist of what DDT posted last evening about avoiding the pitfalls, and prat falls for that matter, by allowing too much outside information to seep into your gray matter and trying to trade at the same time. You’re only a victim if you let yourself be victimized. For those who are new to TTW: we trade both ways and we trade everything under the sun that isn't nailed down, and I hope you will free your mind and allow yourself to think outside the box as we go along. It is one of the huge positives about this blog, IMO. Although it "felt" sideways today, and as far as the major indices go, it was... there were some great trades both long and short with high percentage gains. But it requires work to hunt them down, and this is why the real work is not done during trading hours, it's done once the market is closed. My old trading mentor used to tell me to arrive at my work station with at least five longs and five shorts for the day, and when I'm truly disciplined to do so, it makes all the difference in the world. Anyway... just something to consider, because we are after all, a team in here, and there isn’t a person amongst us who doesn’t want the other to succeed. Glad to see so many new faces, btw, and hard working contributors at that! :-)

Before we move on to some charts (both traditional and DDTs mah-va-lous DM charts) and the economic calendar, the big earnings tomorrow include BBY and ORCL- both bell weathers to watch. Both might give us an early clue as to whether or not we’re in for another earnings season of sell the news or not.

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

Ben Bernanke Speaks
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report (good luck Mau and Big!)
10:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

Tim Geithner Speaks
1:30 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET

Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

Okay.. you FX traders have some nice trading going on, so have some fun tonight and make us proud! Good trading to you! For you Jay…

He Zigs, We Zag

Today's tape was not exactly what I ordered for our birthday trader, but there is always tomorrow. Yes, today is our T-guy extraordinaire's birthday, Zig Zag, and darn it… I was sure hoping to deliver a nice smack down for him. But as we look over the charts, all is not lost, but the water is still muddy.   Zig- your gift might be a little bit belated, but it’s coming soon enough. Apparently the machines received the memo to buy the news, and the shorts covered right out of the gate this morning. Where have we read this story before?  Divergence galore, weak internals, name your own signal… it’s all out there for the having, but the tape is not paying attention to you or me and what we see. I’m thinking this cements Osi’s theory of ObamaPPT punishment.  The bill passed, therefore no punishment to the tape today.  Just sayin’…  Meanwhile, light volume=up, light volume=up.  There are no sellers yet, just a handful of shorts who like to play in traffic and cover the minute they see some green on their screens.  ( As if you needed me to tell you that, right?)

Before the bell tomorrow:
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, Redbook, Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET Tim Geithner Speaks !!!!!!
10:00 AM ET FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET 2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET Janet Yellen Speaks

Don’t worry, Zig.  I still believe in the birthday signal.  ;-)

A big Happy Birthday to You, my dear trading buddy and friend!

Have fun tonight, FX traders!  We didn’t do a very good job today, so we’re passing the ball back to you to carry.  

DDT HERE

All Right...

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The Garden of Forking Paths

"I foresee that man will resign himself each day to new abominations, and soon that only bandits and soldiers will be left". - Jorge Luis Borges, Argentine writer/philosopher

So why the Garden of Forking Paths? Borges conceived of "a labyrinth that folds back upon itself in infinite regression," asking the reader to "become aware of all the possible choices we might make." Sounds a lot like trading this tape successfully to me- must remain aware of all the possibilities and don't get hung up on any one thing, or hunt for things on charts that justify your bias. (me included) Within the theme of "folding back on itself," take a minute to look at the potential mirror image chart of SPY done by Corey Rosenbloom. (wish I'd seen this first)

After an interesting week of stretching the tape even further up, we witnessed all of the major indices printing new recovery highs from a relentless push since the February lows. However, the close on Friday takes us back to the labyrinth again on the charts. Although the Dow caught up and once again printed a new recovery high on Friday, all three major indices closed below their previous closing highs, EOD. While "overbought" can remain in that state for a very long time, (as we've witnessed since March '09) the healthiest thing for the bulls right now would be a constructive pullback. We've seen little, if any, backing and filling normally present in a healthy market. But this is a zombie -never doubt how long a zombie will wander. If Friday was the beginning of "the" pullback, we'll have to watch carefully at each fork in the path for more clues to plan our trades. In other words, all hands on deck TTWrs- let’s nail this one down together.  Also pay heed to the speed/depth of any pullback- IMO, a deep spike down does not necessarily favor the bears, as was the case on the bounce off of the 200 MAs in February.  A slow drip might be more preferable on the short side.

Osso's Thursday/ with a Friday lower low signal is in play this week.  Additionally the 21st-22nd are important Gann dates, and March 30th is a full moon. (I know how this drives DDT looney.. errr, crazy, but somebody has to tease him once in awhile.)

I'm including  a chart of the steel sector ETF in the chart zone that might provide a good springboard for hunting down some individual trades for this coming week. I'm also including a chart on $CRB which is showing something of interest in the way of the Bollinger Bands. Earnings of interest this week include both BBY and ORCL on Thursday, and of course we’re sitting here waiting for the health care vote.

We welcome Alpha home from his journey, and wish safe and happy travel to our good friend and trader JoeyNickels today, as he travels to Buenos Aires - and will even meet our favorite South American trader, Osso!  Joey, you will be missed very much. Buen viaje!

Okey Doke… as Joey leaves for Argentina it’s time to Tango (electronica) with the Tape. Good trading and best of luck to us all this week.  We have a TTW birthday tomorrow, and this has, in the past, brought good things to us. I will reveal the birthday trader tomorrow.  jej jej jej

DDT here
"Proudly" announcing availability of Trading to Win on Amazon KINDLE (this is your chance to support TTW that you all SAY you LOVE for only $1.99 per month...well - I say a lot of things too...)









DISQUSsting DISQUS is acting up again...