SPX hourly update

My speculation
on what might happen to SPX short term played out quite well

 

below it today’s chart – I will start going short on any hourly close above 1796.41, but bear in mind there is an ongoing TDSellSetup and possible completion might be around noon time

 

 

Fooled by randomness

"While in theory randomness is an intrinsic property, in practice, randomness is incomplete information." – Taleb

“It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one.”
― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

 

 

“When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.”
― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

 

 

Now that you are fully saturated by unconventional wisdom – charts mumbo-jumbo time

 

Short term – time to be bearish – for as long as top blue line is not penetrated to the upside (which will, in plain English spell - “bears – run for your life”) that magically is in the area of 1(777) – don’t you just love these weird numerological coincidences … bottom at 666 … top at  … ?

 

 

 

30 minutes chart shows that bounce started off 9 setup buy (don’t you just love when buy setups work like a fine tuned watch and sell setups just getting ignored … hate trends!)  and now SPX is at TDST. Could there be that Monday will be as unexpected for bulls as Friday was for most bears?

 

I will elaborate on my “it is starting to remind 1980” point of view in few days – I need it to sink into my head first..

Just a thought

The more I think about SPX in historical perspective, the more, for some reason, even though charts do not rhyme, I think 1980. If it holds water – I will be using any pullbacks to close short positions and will be putting on a “difficult trade” – long into Jan 2014 …

I am still thinking …

One thing I do know for certain – I am in doubts … and when in doubts we need to get out because it is the only way to clear the head and see things the way they are.

Bears need to break blue line!

GO LONG CRUDE OIL? (/CL)

My first target is 104, then (IF … stay tuned ) 108

Perfect buy point around 93

 

If not now then … never? LOL

Two charts – as you can see on weekly SPY rose 200% of wave 3

and the same on daily – quite coincidental to call it coincidence? Staying put at least till Monday.

 

 

 

I’ll be damned – same chart – two weeks interval – we are right at the wave 3 target!