Sunday, August 09, 2009

Market Musings

Market taught me that it will do what we expect it to do only not when we expect it to (I, myself, been a contrarian all my life learned to reinforce contrarian arguments with solid technical indications)

what I think will happen - market will go sideways for the next 4-5 weeks
next 2 weeks - down, after that will drift higher for few weeks, may be even setting slightly higher highs - 1060sh on SPX , therefore completing TDCombo sell on weekly SPX (NDX already posted Combo sell this week - technology companies suffer most from rising dollar).
Sometime in mid September market will start decline and most likely will retrace most of advance off March lows - even idea of "new bull market" does not interfere with retrace of most of W1 of wave up (we are at W4 of down and, probably, in W1 UP, but based on RSI readings I will continue to go with DOWN wave on weekly - unfortunately in DeMArk world it might go as high as the top of W2 corrective wave (just should NOT close above it) and that is an area of 1440 - quite amazing - we might go that high and still be in DOWN wave
I did video on spx, comp, iyr, xlf yesterday and if I will not fall asleep – I might do detailed video on QQQQ