Sunday, August 16, 2009

Mixed Bag – getting heavy

Rydex data indicates that the amount of assets in the bullish and leveraged funds is 2.53 times that in the bearish and leveraged funds, and this represents the highest value since November, 2004. 

Robert Prechter latest interview [it will open Windows Media Player, entire clip is very interesting, but Bob part" starts at 14:45 mark]

Investors Sentiment – of sources that traditionally proved to be on the wrong side of the trade ( combined 1. Investor Intelligence; 2. Market Vane; 3. American Association of Individual Investors; and 4. the put call ratio) is extremely bullish.

Fibonacci Arcs hinting exhaustion of the rally (technically, but time fractions are to close in durations for .38 – toss the coin now)


This is my “speculation” on what will happen this week:

S&P500 will NOT set new high till expiration Friday

On Monday it might attempt to run up (but not above 1012.44) – if no such attempt will be made all following time/price targets will be shifted 1/2 days back.

By Wednesday it will be slightly below 993 where it will start yet another leg up not exceeding 1005 (this is purely “fantasy” target – I cannot calculate the number until  W3 low is set.


The bottom line – if it will work this way S&P500 cash index will end this week slightly above 970.

If I am right – you can kiss me, if I am wrong – you can kiss Prechter’s butts - for the difference in amount of money he and I make – you can live with that…