Weekly Sector Report | 2/04/11 (by Leisa)

The bulls found their footing after stumbling the previous Friday. The broad market sector was up 2.75%.

 

Here's how the cylinders were firing on the markets' engine (click all images for enhanced viewing):

Moving to the industry level, here are the Top 10 Best/Worst performers:

The sharks are swimming in the current areas:

We close with the broad market index:

With this week's close, it has poked its price nose above the long volume bar that has previously acted as resistance. As usual, I have created a full report for you:

 

 

 

Weekly Sector Report | 01/28/11 (by Leisa)

Such a day in the market on Friday!  The unrelenting march forward was stopped and then pushed back.  For the week, though, the change was merely a .35% decline.  However, looking at the sector/industry charts, you will note that that there has been some serious damage done to these charts.  Drilling down to individual stocks, the carnage is even more brutal.

 

We must be ever cognizant that market indices are like a house which goes up brick by brick.  For an index, the bricks are individual stocks and their collective performance.  An index house will eventually roll over once the sector bricks are weakened one by one--but that rolling over is through a successive failures in stocks/sectors. That is why topping is a process. And while the market tops over a period of months (e.g. Financial topped in Feb of 2007 (in fits and starts); Basic Resources topped a full 16 months later), they all seem to bottom at the same time, with October 2008 and March 2009 a collective double bottoming for every sector.

 

I've been providing a view of the total stock market index.  Let's take a look at that daily chart here (click all images for enhanced viewing):

As we can see by the volume@price bars, we have quite a bit of price memory here.  Note that the last peak is at the bottom of the bar which would offer the next range of support with some worrisome vacuum underneath.

 

How did our sectors fare over the week?

Here are the top/bottom ten performers at the industry level (This is weekly only):

In days such as yesterday when all the world is going to hell (or seemingly so), spotting divergences is informative (for those of you that trade individual securities v. indices).  For those of you inclined that way, this weekend is a good time to review that information which you can do easily on FINVIZ (though I have prepared my usual report for you which you can find here):

• Industry subsector performance: You can find the industry subsectors here. (sorted in best to worst).  If you like to see this information graphically, you can do so here.
• Individual stock performance:  You can find individual issues here (sorted best to worst)--be sure to use the filtering tools to pull out thin capitalizations and low priced stocks--a graphical rendition is found here where you can see the sector + individual notables (the good, bad and the ugly).
• Short interest change:  You can the change in short interest (in addition to the total short interest here.
• Relative Volume:  Viewing sectors by relative volume can also be fruitful.  You can find that view here.

Let's see where the short interest changes are:

Whether we had a healthful consolidating pullback or something more will be determined with the passage of time. Many of the sector leaders (e.g. automobiles/parts) have been weakening over the past couple of weeks. Price action has moved ahead of the news. News is now coming out that informs the correctness of the market's anticipation of future events.

 

The market by its nature is anticipatory; however, we should always remember that its crystal ball is cloudy. It does act decisively when its expectations are not met. We should as well.

 

I wish you good trading for next week, and I hope that that you find some use from this week's report.

Weekly Sector Report | 01/21/11 (by Leisa)

The week saw the broad market index decline 1.05%. Only two sectors, media (+1.3%) and utilities (+.42%), were positive. Here is the weekly profile on the sectors (click all images for enhanced viewing):

For the subsectors, here is a graphic of the top/bottom performers.  GE led the Diversified Industrials with a 4.9% change for the week:

This week short interest changes were reported. Familiar sectors are still on the top 10 list.  I am also including for you the top absolute % changes in short interest so that you can see where the bears are increasing their holdings.

As is usual, I have prepared for you a chart book.  I have a lagniappe for you!  I included chart thumbnails for the 148 subsectors as well as the 24 sectors (in addition to the detailed weekly/daily charts).  Sometimes the bird's eye view helps build perspective.  You can find the chart book here. And finally, I will close with the chart of the total stock market index--both daily and weekly. First the daily, then the weekly. 

The weekly chart (2nd chart) shows no damage to the trend lines, and the daily chart is showing some bumping against its trend lines.  (Note that a 13 EMA on a weekly chart is a 13 week EMA, while on a daily chart it is a 13 day EMA).

 

I hope you find this information and the weekly chart book download helpful to your due diligence efforts.

Weekly Sector Report | 01/14/11 (by Leisa)

The broad market advanced .73%.  Much is being made of how January starts as a great prognosticator for the balance of the year.  Statistics for the first week in January and what that bodes for the entire market abound, along with analogs, ideologues and all manner of other 'stuff'.  History repeats, rhymes, and more often reminds that we never step into the same river twice, but most times our feet will get wet, sometimes the river has run dry and sometimes we just might drown.  I find that to be a useful mental model as an antidote for over generalizations and wild prognostications.

 

Here is how the major sectors performed (click on all images for enhanced viewing):

From the subsectors, here is a view of the best/worst performing areas:

I have created a chart book for you which you can find here. Asset Managers is the second best subsector.  Let's take a look at the sector chart:

  There are many constructive charts in this space (so long as the market remains hospitable!).  I created a chart book for you for the names in this space for those interested.  You can find it here. Let's close with looking at the broad market chart. I'm including both a weekly and a daily chart.

The weekly chart remains in the overbought area.  On the daily chart, the daily is making a new high without the oscillator--a bit of negative divergence. As you can see from the broad sectors, money is moving into new sector leadership...and so long as this broad index moves up, that also denotes new money coming in.

I wish you good trading this week.

Weekly Sector Report | 01/07/10 (by Leisa)

The first week of the new year saw the broad market index advance 1.05%, and some big winners and losers among the sectors.  Let's take a look (click on images for enhanced viewing):

Automobiles and Parts was the big sector winner.  GM (+5.75%) and F (+8.8%) were big contributors along with  LEA (+7.18%) and MGA (14.83%).  HOWEVER, the auto parts stores had a drag of a week. Big sector losers were Gold Miners and Platinum and precious metals--largely a reaction to the USD's strength.  Here are the top/bottom performers (using sub-sectors):

Home Construction experienced a surge with KBH's good news.  This sector is heavily shorted and the bears got caught with their hands in the honey jar.  I created a chart book for you with the short interest and the weekly charts.

Let's take a look at the broad market index:

There is some negative divergence between the oscillator and the price action; however, the daily chart is not extended relative to the trend line.  Earnings will be coming out soon and will feed the charts with new information.  As we know, it is not the news, but the market's reaction to news that is instructive.

For your weekly research, I've prepared a chart book for you on the major sectors as well as some weekly change in price and short interest on subsectors. You may download it here (9.1mb). Disclosure:  I have no positions in any stocks mentioned.

Weekly Sector Report | 12/31/10 (by Leisa)

The last week of the year saw the broad market index eek out a .03% increase. However, we know that the action is in the sectors, so let's see which cylinders are firing in the market's motor (click on all images for enhanced viewing):

Basic Resources, Oil and Gas and Telecommunications were the winners.  Healthcare, Personal and Household Goods and Travel and Leisure were the losers for the week.  Taking a look at subsectors, here are the 10 top/bottom performers:

I was interested in the Mobile Telecommunications sector's performance.  There are some interesting chart set ups in that sub-sector.  I created a chart book for you with the Communications Equipment tickers which you can find here . You can also visit FINVIZ to get a deeper profile for the names in this sector by clicking here. Short Interest:  Here are the sub-sectors with the highest short interest.  Note that short interest is updated 2x per month.

To close, I want to present a chart of DWCF, which is the Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index...it includes all US listed stocks that have a readily available quote.  You can see a linkable version of this chart here.

I created a chart book for you, which you can access here.

Best wishes for the New Year!

Weekly Sector Report | 12/17/10 (by Leisa)

The total stock market index ($DWCF on Stockcharts.com) advanced .33%.  Beneath the surface there was much activity in the sectors.  Here's the weekly graph (click all images to make larger):

Financial services had a lousy weekly largely due to V and MA getting their legs cut out from under them with the proposed regulations on capping debit card fees.  To get a view of the magnitude of the market's response on these two charts click here. The WSJ Industry page as a great snapshot of the best/worst performing industries.  Here's the snapshot for this week:

You can choose from multiple time frames to see this type of performance.  These types of relative looks will help build a mental map for you to gauge market action. Click here to see how this easy visual tool works.

I had a reader ask me a question about being able to find low-risk entry points using these sector reports.  There are a number of FREE on-line tools to aid the individual investor who wants to do his/her own research. Ultimately we want to be in the industries that are attracting money relative to other industries, and be in the strongest performing stocks (attracting money relative to its sector siblings).  By clicking on any of the industry links, you can also see a snapshot of the strongest performing stocks in that sector.  (You can also do this easily in FINVIZ by clicking here. ) As steel was a great performing industry this past week, I wanted to share a couple of charts, the weekly and the daily, with you.

WEEKLY Steel Chart

Daily Steel Chart

On both the weekly and the daily chart, steel has been breaking out and then pulling back to consolidate in a strong confluence of moving averages.   Interested in seeing who's on the homecoming court at the steel sector dance?  You can do so by clicking here.  There are a number of ways to find strong stocks, this just happens to be my way which appeals to my DNA and contributes to my understanding of the overall market. Time to pull back out for the bigger picture.  Let's take a look at the total market index:

We are fast approaching a volume bar (see dotted line) that should we surpass it, the gravity of volume overhang will dissipate.  What is interesting to me is that we often come to these important technical junctures that are coincidental with important news junctures--the next big news cycle being 4th quarter earnings and of course the report from the retail sales.

I have a good friend that reminds me, "There are no coincidences." I have prepared for you a chart book with the weekly and daily sector charts.  You can find it here.

Weekly Sector Report | 11/19/10 (by Leisa)

The total market index was basically flat at .15% change. Within the total market, banks, other financials and utilities were the most notable underperformers. Below is a graphic of the 23 sectors and the total market index. (Click all images to make larger).

Let's take a look at a WEEKLY chart of Total Stock Market Index that includes the volume@price bars:

The markets continue to work off overbought conditions.  As we saw last week, the market is still very fragile to news that surprises regarding sovereign debt. It is also worth noting that for the first time, bonds and stocks have diverged.  TLT has fallen with a falling stock market.  So while the flight to safety might be in the USD, it is not going into treasuries. I have created for you a chart book with the daily, weekly sector charts in addition to the table of 148 industries sorted by performance as well as short interest per sector.  It is a large file, so please be patient with the download.  You may access it here.

(I see that David has closed the site down until after the holidays.  No rest for the wicked though, so here is the sector report for those who use it.  Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday.  It is a holiday for gratitude. I believe that a grateful heart is the purest of all. May you have many blessings for which to be grateful!)

Weekly Sector Report | 11/05/10 (by Leisa)

The market showed no signs of fatigue last week. The broad market index was up 3.57% with a sweep of sectors positive across the board.  Below is the Weekly Sector profile compared to the broad market index (in blue). (Click to make larger).

Note that the more defensive sectors, healthcare, food/beverage, utilities, are lagging. Here's a chart of the broad market index (Click to make larger)

Prices are very extended and caution is warranted for longs.  Prices are approaching a heavy volume@ price bar (which I have extended and placed in a dotted outline).  It will be interesting to see how volume/price action react at these levels over the next few weeks.

 

To facilitate your personal study of the the sectors, I've created a downloadable PDF which contains detail sector information, summary sector information, and chart books for the summary sectors in both weekly and daily format.  It is a large file, so be patient with the download.

Sector Report

With this post, I'm re-committing to weekly sector reporting.  However, this report is spanning from July 30, 2010, since I have to use a data starting point, and I'm too lazy to pull the data and enter them individually. I'll resume to weekly changes in the next submission next week.  You can download the full PDF here.



Hard to believe that behind Basic Materials/Resources, that Utilities would be such an outstanding performer!  I chalk that up to dividend yield in the face of declining interest rates.

Here's a chart of the DJ Total Stock Market Index (Weekly Format) with the Volume profile.  I placed a yellow highlight over the next longest bar.

Weekly Sector Report | 08/13/10 (by Leisa)

(Note: Please click on all images to make larger)

It was an ugly week in the market with the Total Stock Market Index down by 4.2%--Ugly if you are a bull.  It was a fantastic week for the bears.  Telecommunications was the sector down the least.  As you might guess, the search for yield is on again, and some telecommuncation issues are staid dividend payers.

 

Though outside the scope of this post, past dividends do not always equal current dividends.  Make sure that you conduct reasonable due diligence to evaluate the quality and ability of continuance of dividends.

 

One of my long-time blog friends, MarkM, pointed out that preferred shares were a superb performer.  Here's a chart of PFF.

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Here are the sectors with the highest relative volume. You can view the entire table here.

ZBB and DYN were the two biggest contributors to this sector's relative volume performance.

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Here are the sectors with the highest short interest.  You can view the entire table here. 

If you wish to scroll through all of the sector charts and drill down for greater detail, you can do so by following THIS LINK.

 

I wish you good trading this week.  I also want to thank my friends here for their supportive feedback on my 'lament' post.  It mean much to me.

Weekly Sector Report | 06/23/10 (by Leisa)

The fatted and slumbering bears were rudely awakened last week.  The broad market was up 3.7% and the bulls reclaimed some hotly contested moving averages.  I've presented for you a chart book with weekly, daily charts for the 24 major sectors. You can find that HERE.  Additionally, I have all 148 Sector sorted by performance (and also alphabetically, so that you can find sectors more easily).

Let's take a look at the weekly performance chart (click to enlarge).

Health Care was the only negative sector.  Now let's turn to the Total Stock Market Index--Note that I look at this index rather than the S&P or the DOW because it is just that--the TOTAL index.  I like the bird's eye view (click to enlarge):

I mentioned last week that we were within a feral cat's whisker of these lines crossing on the weekly chart.  They have not crossed, and there was some upward progress. HOWEVER, the 13 week EMA is still pointing down, and the 34 week EMA is flat and has been pentrated.

The market continues to digest news daily, and its mood swings have run quite a gamut--dealing thwacks to bulls and bears alike.  To my eye, I'm seeing some constructive charts from our most recent swoon.  Nevertheless, whether you are a bull or a bear, vigilance rather than complacency must be embraced.

I wish you good trading next week.  Keep your wits about you and remember the difference between bias and conviction generally is defined by dollars and time. Always make sure you have a clear idea on how much you wish to pay and how long you want to wait.

Update: This week will be my LAST Weekly Sector Report. Why? FINVIZ offers a very easy and comprehensive view of the Sectors. I was looking at it this morning, and my simple conclusion was that my report was NO added value. Accordingly, I invite you to spend some time exploring FINVIZ's offerings. Start here.

Weekly Sector Report | 07/16/10 (by Leisa)

Although the broad market was down 1.3%,  a couple of sectors still managed to hang onto weekly gains:  Automobiles and Parts and Technology.  Also, 18% of the 148 sectors managed to have gains for the week.
As is usual, I have created a PDF for you which you can download here.

I want to share with you a chart of the $DWCF (Stockcharts symbol), the DJ Total Stock Market Index.  This is the index that I  use to show the relative performance in the sectors.  I use this rather than the $DJUS (Stockcharts symbol) because it has volume information.

Let's take a look at the chart before I start yammering about it:

I have 13/34 week exponential moving averages (EMA's) on this chart.  I have noted for you with the purple arrows the crossovers.

I am still of the mind that the market is at an important crossroads. This week, the market was psychologically bludgeoned by (1) evidence of deflationary forces on the market through wholesale prices decline; (2) the Fed's report did not inspire confidence [Would they really tell us if they expected a double dip recession?  No.]; (3) consumer sentiment lower; and (4) declining Philly manufacturing index.

I'm practicing equanimity with respect to this market.  It has managed to surprise and befuddle many, and I expect it to not veer from that MO as earnings season continues to unfold.

I wish you good trading next week.

Edit:  I should have noted given that the chart is not so clear that we are within a feral cat's whisker (ask me why I used that!) of crossing on the weekly:  11276.13 (13) v. 11274.58 (34)