Tuesday, October 31, 2006

SMSI saga continued

What happened?
This is the right question and we will never know real answer.
Since I, after seeng my 5 consecutive stops to fire and after adding at 17.3 witnessing that last one to go at a loss, let say instead of making 3x amount I made 1x, and if I'm not going to be able to convince myself that SMSI worth "an earnings shot" I probably lost 5x of expected profits. Yeah, yeah, yeah - I'm "counting turkeys".

The only way for me to make any sense of what and why happened is to look at the chart.

Today's SMSI chart does NOT look good..
Wait a minute - it looked good until, OK - be patient

Day started for SMSI as we all hoped for and for the market ( I'll use Russel 2000 as benchmark ) as well, on a positive note.

It did not last long for R2K and by 9:50 it was in the negative territory... SMSI followed due to profit taking and put a bottom at 9:49 at $18.1 and immediately run up again. And that was a beginning of the end of SMSI in the bad market. Everybody set stop loss orders at $18.10 - just in case... I would...

$18.1 held up until 12:05PM when it was penetrated with just 6700 shares. And that started first avalanche and if you'll look at R2K chart by that time it was in free fall as well. Then up until 3PM SMSI behaved quite well in the very bad for small cap market.
From 12:25 till 3:05 it never went below 17.2, at about 3PM it looked like it stabilized at 17.3 area - so I guess, going into the close and tomorrow's earning a lot of trader set a stop at -.10 which is 17.2.

At about 3:10PM R2K started to slide again and pulled SMSI with it, just a bit - but if everybody set the stop where I would ( and sorry to say - did ) penetration of 17.2 on volume of 7300 shares caused the second slide down to 16.35 which immediately triggered a lot of buying on very nice volume and for the last 40 minutes price did not change much.

Bad market and a lot of cautious (momentum?) traders who bought SMSI yesterday and nervousness before earnings caused this fall.

Is that what really happened? We will know tomorrow and after earnings we'll have a final dot. Will I buy tomorrow? From my perspective nothing changed since Thursday when I posted SMSI as a short squeeze play except for couple of slams, first was caused by IBD "chart of the day" and short covering and the second one by bad market and stop loss orders, price wize from Friday's close to today's ( Tuesday ) close SMSI ADDED .12c and sitting above current support of about $17.

Hey - this stock has beta of 4.26 - there is a heat in the kitchen!

Tomorrow we WILL know.

P.S. Second short squeeze play candidate IIG is up today 4.77% and 4.4% since Friday when I opened position and it made another 52WK on more then double the volume ( Thanks God IBD did not jinx it :)