Monday, February 23, 2009

Follow up on yesterday's post

/ES day low today 739.75.

Prior risk zone from 1/21/09 has a "bottom" at 739 - which "coincidentally" is November low for /ES - interesting.

Today new risk zone was established from today's low of 739.75 all the way down to 693.

This opens up 2 possible short term scenarios.

First: since prior risk zone bottom was not violated - it is still a "primary support" (risk zone has nothing to do with November low of 739, BUT it adds psychological support as well) and /ES is about to reverse to the upside.

Second: IF 739 will not hold (on daily close) - new risk zone is in play with the bottom at 693. Today's action did not feel right, there was something artificial in it, but the fact that /ES did not hit new lows without any intervention of PPT tells me that the bottom is damn close.


Not to overlook that /ES has bounced "miraculously" right off the bottom off the current channel in play - that adds validity to "immediate /ES reversal to the upside" (if not - my expectations of Friday/Monday bottom is "temporary postponed").


P.S. These are huge ranges in play - very difficult to trade it calmly - but if this is the business we've chosen - we have to deal with it the best we can.