Wednesday, February 11, 2009

The "Golden Age" of Gold?

People expected gold to be safe heaven - not always working

Traders expected gold to fall - some - to rise.

Now a lot of traders throwing out a towel after, what they think of a "breakout from widening descending wedge which theoretically thought of as "bullish". But the fact is - it is bullish  in about 52% of breakout and, on another hand - busted breakout produces spectacular fall.

Lets look at the chart

Weekly...breakout did not happen this week - it really happened 3 weeks ago and based on moving about "risk zone" it might have 3-4 week more to go up. Not so far

Lets look at the daily chart.

the last accumulation day was 1/26 (Don't ask me how I know - I've been trading for so long that even if I knew - I forgot already)

Up until today - there was clear distribution into the top which reached culmination on failed breakout above prior highs (yellow line) on huge volume (no - it is NOT breakout on huge volume - it is a failure, busted, finito, tutta kaputo, konetc..)

Depending on tomorrow's action which might just confirm busted breakout, I will be opening short position in /ZG (That would be an addition to today's highly speculative Feb/March GLD puts position.

To add to the point - gold miners are about to collapse, no matter where commodities will be going...just throw a dart