Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Day trading /ES (S&P500 Index Futures)

Quite a few readers asked me lately why I have not been posting swing trade ideas for quite a while.

The answer is simple - with this range bound market as of late there is not much "juice" in swing trades and precise timing of such trades is extremely difficult (at least for me)

So I was day trading /ES for the last 2 months (not scalping , no "200 1 tick trades" - from 5-10 minutes to few hours or even days, well one may say that I am still "swing trading" and in  way it is true)

When I day trade I use (just like for swing trades) set of not widely know/understood indicators heavily sprayed with my personal interpretation.

Below is a chart of /ES (5 days 30 min displayed) with Fibonacci Retracements. Those of you who use Fibs will question righteousness of not using extreme highs/lows for placing Fibs on the chart. Exactly - I do not care for true high/lows, but rather I try to find points where significant "market mood" change took place. How I find those? One of the ways - I use open/close/mid day candles to start with. What then? Then it gets really complicated. not to mention some woo doo I practice, so I'd rather not to go there.

The bottom line - I believe tomorrow /ES will end the day between 841.50 and 850 levels. (Of course double retest of the lows of symmetrical triangle on hourly chart from 1/21/09 helps to identify direction - in my mind it will be up, not even mention the end of yet another round of Congressional Witch Hunt to please John Q. Public)


Later tonight I will try to post my thought on Gold - you heard on the street(s) that it broke out of widening descending wedge on weekly charts and everyone closed their short positions. Not me - I loaded up GLD Feb/March PUTs today when GLD was at 92.90sh.