Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Trading QQQQ short term

Mr. Chambers of (CSCO) painted gloom and doom picture after the close today.
I have never had much respect for his "stock market forecasting abilities", at least not for my trading purposes.
The last time he spooked the markets on February 7th 2008 his "effect" lasted for about 2 weeks, after that (QQQQ) started powerful multi week rally.
Not so Good Chambers morning to all.

Let see what chart is going to tell us now.
QQQQ closed right on 20MA. CSCO will bring QQQQ down more tomorrow, most likely to the vicinity of $30.80. Friday's jobs report will push it down some more in the morning, and, hopefully QQQQ will touch $29.30+ area. If it will start recovering from there I will be all over Nov30/31 calls for short term trade. I would say QQQQ will be forming inverted head&shoulder on daily ( left shoulder Oct22).
This trade provides reasonable stop under $29 ( I doubt we get there).
On weekly chart QQQQ completed TDSetup (buy) last week, it usually takes 2-3 weeks for price to reverse ( plays well with "Chambers' effect")
If long trade will play out, I will enter short trade (Nov30/31 puts) IF QQQQ will start going down from $33.40 area (which I think it will)
So far on weekly chart QQQQ seems to be starting to form what might turn into "inverted roof bottom" - now it is slightly too early to speculate...

I will be posting my opinion on shippers and some other stocks (to answer questions of regular contributors) on "Regular Contributors' Site" tonight ( Here is how to join )